Beijing appears to eschew diplomatic leadership role
Beijing appears to eschew diplomatic leadership role
Putin threatens chemical warfare
No commentary up top. Will have more later, probably Sunday.
Putin’s forces threaten atrocities: how would the PRC respond?
Comment: It’s a good idea to get the PRC on the record - NOW - about chemical weapons, as that could deter Putin from using them against civilians. Next issue of The Report will discuss the PRC’s reactions to Syria, as Putin’s use of force may be heading in that direction.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference on March 4, 2022 – PRC MFA
CCTV: According to reports, an anonymous senior Pentagon official said on March 3 that China continues to express its concerns over what’s going on in Ukraine, but it is not willing to condemn or sanction Russia like other countries, and has shown no interest in becoming involved in any kind of diplomatic solution. What is your comment?
Wang Wenbin: For some time, the US has been spreading disinformation time and again, and smearing China with the Ukraine issue. Fabricating rumors to shirk one’s own responsibility is very hypocritical and despicable. Spreading disinformation cannot help the US shift its responsibility. Instead, it only exposes the US real motive of benefiting from the crisis.
The US should give an honest account. The US claimed to defend peace by working on NATO’s eastward expansion. Is peace achieved? It said it were to prevent wars in Europe. Is a war averted? It advertised its commitment to a peaceful settlement of the crisis. But apart from providing military aid and beefing up military deterrence, did it do anything good for peace?
China decides its own position and policy based on the merits of the matter itself. We welcome all diplomatic efforts that are conducive to the political settlement of the Ukraine issue, and support dialogue and negotiation by Russia and Ukraine for a political settlement that accommodates both sides’ legitimate concerns and is good for lasting stability and security in Europe. We will continue to play a constructive role in seeking and achieving peace. [Comment: Wang’s non-response to a planted question suggests that the PRC isn’t anywhere close to inserting itself diplomatically in a major way. While more Chinese engagement could potentially play a constructive role in deescalating the crisis, I’m very skeptical that the PRC will seek a leadership role. Negotiations will probably leave Moscow and/or Brussels unsatisfied, and Beijing doesn’t want to be seen publicly backing Russia at Europe’s expense]
Bloomberg: Today, a fire broke out near Europe’s largest nuclear plant after a Russian attack. Will China call for an end of such attacks?
Wang Wenbin: I noted relevant reports. China attaches great importance to nuclear safety and is gravely concerned about the safety and security situation of nuclear facilities in Ukraine. According to information obtained by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from the Ukrainian nuclear regulatory authorities, no damage has been found to essential equipment of the relevant Ukrainian nuclear power plant and the background radiation levels remain unchanged. We will continue to closely monitor the developments of the situation, and call on relevant parties to keep calm and exercise restraint, prevent further escalation of the situation and ensure the safety of relevant nuclear facilities.
AFP: Can you provide the latest information on the evacuation of Chinese citizens from Ukraine?
Wang Wenbin: For days, the Chinese Embassy and Consulate General in Ukraine has been making relentless efforts to find ways for Chinese citizens to evacuate safely. The relevant work is well underway in an orderly fashion. We have noted that both Ukraine and Russia said they will provide facilitation for the safe evacuation of foreign nationals. We hope the two sides can take all necessary measures to provide security assurances and convenience for Chinese citizens’ evacuation.
RIA Novosti: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has said on Thursday that Japan’s to consider the possibility of significantly strengthening the country’s defense capability amid the current situation in Ukraine. What is China’s comment on this?
Wang Wenbin: Since the Japanese militarism launched foreign aggression in modern history, Japan’s moves in the military and security fields have been followed closely by its Asian neighbors and the international community. We urge the Japanese side to have a deep reflection on history, draw lessons from it, and respect its Asian neighbors’ security concerns, stay committed to peaceful development, and do more that is conducive to maintaining regional peace and stability.
People’s Daily
Russia, Ukraine end second round of talks, agree to organize humanitarian corridors – People’s Daily
Russia and Ukraine agreed to organize humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians in the second round of talks in Belarus on Thursday, Advisor to the Head of the President's Office of Ukraine Mykhailo Podoliak confirmed on Twitter.
"There is a solution only for the organization of humanitarian corridors," Podoliak tweeted.
During the talks on Thursday, the two sides discussed military issues, humanitarian issues, and a future political settlement of the conflict, said Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, also the head of the Russian delegation.
"The positions were made absolutely clear ... On some of them, we managed to reach an understanding," he said, noting that creating humanitarian corridors is "substantial progress."
Russia's TASS news agency reported earlier Thursday that the second round of talks has ended.
Podoliak told a media briefing that the third round of peace negotiations may take place soon, according to Ukrainian media.
Earlier in the day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, when commenting on the peace negotiations, said that "any talks" make sense.
Ahead of China's announcement of its defense budget for 2022, analysts and observers predict that the country will likely continue to steadily increase its military expenditure, at a rate possibly slightly faster than last year, as China enjoys a positive economic development but faces security threats. The two factors provide a foundation and need for China to further develop its national defense capabilities to safeguard national sovereignty, territorial integrity and rightful interests.
The amount is expected to be released in a draft budget report at the opening of the annual session of the National People's Congress, the country's top legislature, on Saturday.
Multiple military experts reached by the Global Times believe that the budget could grow by about 7 percent.
In March 2021, China announced a defense budget of 1.35 trillion yuan ($209 billion), a 6.8 percent increase, faster than the 6.6 percent increase in 2020, despite COVID-19, which had an impact on China's economic growth in both years.
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While economic development provides a foundation for a possible defense budget increase, the security threats China is facing and the demands for national defense capability enhancement caused by those threats are the driving factors, analysts pointed out.
The US has been applying military pressure on China over the past few years, stirring up trouble on the doorsteps of China through operations like provocative, monthly warship transits in the Taiwan Straits, close-in reconnaissance missions with spy planes in the East China Sea and the South China Sea of more than 1,200 times in 2021, and a number of warship intrusions in Chinese territorial waters in the South China Sea in the name of "freedom of navigation."
Over the past year, the US also rallied its allies and partners around the world to provoke and confront China militarily. Under the US' bullying banner, countries far away from the region like France, Germany and the UK sent warships to the South China Sea. [Bolded by The Report] The US also organized the security dialogue Quad with Japan, India and Australia, and formed the new security pact AUKUS with Australia and the UK, both designed to surround China militarily.
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US President Joe Biden is expected to ask US Congress for a defense budget exceeding $770 billion for the next fiscal year, eclipsing the record budget requests by former president Donald Trump, Reuters reported on February 17. This means the US' defense budget will remain about four times China's. [Comment: This is a PRC talking point but purposely elides key facts, such as exchange-weighted rates, the US military’s global responsibilities compared to the PRC’s regional ambitions, etc. See below]
China remains the only permanent member of the UN Security Council that has yet to realize complete national reunification. [Comment: This is a word-for-word repetition of Hua Chunying’s comments at the February 24th MFA Press Conference in response to a planted question about state sovereignty and territorial integrity. I initially read Hua’s comments as strictly related to the Taiwan issue. Upon reflection, Hua’s comments may have been a subtle warning to Moscow that Beijing would not support a full reconstitution of the old Soviet empire.] The secessionist Democratic Progressive Party authority on the island of Taiwan repeatedly made provocations over the past years, attempting to resist reunification by developing new weapons and purchasing them from foreign countries, including recent plans to buy US-made howitzers and Patriot missile upgrades.
While the situation along the China-India border has been kept stable and manageable, the standoffs remain to be completely solved after rounds of talks.
These circumstances also mean that China needs to continue to increase its national defense capabilities with steadily growing budgets, Fu said, noting that China will also not be involved in an arms race, as it has kept its defense spending at only 1.3 percent of its GDP in recent years, far lower than the US.
After verifying with the Kharkiv State Academy of Culture, the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine told the Global Times exclusively that previous media reports that said two Chinese students in the academy were killed in their dormitory by Russian bombing were false.
Some media outlets including those holding a longstanding anti-China stance like Radio Free Asia and the Epoch Times, citing Ukrainian local media Obozrevatel, reported that the Russian army opened fire and killed 13 students in the academy, including four Chinese students, two of whom were Jin Tianhao and Li Zhi.
However, after verifying with the Kharkiv State Academy of Culture, the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine told the Global Times on Friday that there were no Chinese students named Jin Tianhao or Li Zhi in the institute.
The school building remains intact and the shells landed near the school, the embassy said.
As far as we know, only one Chinese national has been injured during the Ukrainian crisis. He was shot on his way from Kiev to Lviv amid the Russia-Ukraine confrontations, but was treated timely and has been discharged from the hospital, the embassy said, noting that it is trying to help him return to China.
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There are about 2,700 Chinese students in Ukraine that need to be evacuated, but time is limited and the situation is complicated, the spokesperson said. [Bolded by The Report]
The Chinese Embassy has made strenuous efforts to make the evacuation effective and safe, said the spokesperson, noting that Ukraine opened a special express for Chinese students in Kharkiv and played a positive role in helping the Chinese students stuck in the conflicts.
The second round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine ended on the 3rd in the Belovezh Forest in Belarus. The two sides reached an understanding on the establishment of humanitarian access and agreed to hold the third round of negotiations as soon as possible. Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a video conference with members of the Russian Federation Security Council on the 3rd that Russia's special military operation is being carried out strictly according to the timetable and plan, and all the established tasks are being carried out smoothly.
Comparative Defense Budgets
In this column, I show that the perception of the US military ‘spending supremacy’ is misplaced. Specifically, the conventional use of market exchange rates to compare across countries dramatically overstates US real military spending relative to other countries and, likewise, understates the real spending in countries such as China, India, and Russia.
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Looking at military spending this way reveals that real military spending in many countries is indeed far larger than the values implied by market exchange rates. To see this, rather than looking at the US relative to the next eight countries, we can focus on just three other countries – China, India, and Russia.
In market exchange rate terms, these three countries have combined military spending in 2019 that amounts to $378 billion, compared to the US’s $734 billion. In military-PPP terms, however, their combined spending is $840 billion (Figure 1). Hence, in real terms, the US military budget in 2019 is not larger than the next eleven countries. Rather it is smaller than the next three and similar to the spending of China and Russia combined. [Comment: this is before the PRC’s military buildup]
v/r,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.