Big decisions ahead for Putin and the CCP
Will Putin accept a ceasefire & PRC econ/military aid
Michael Kofman, CNA’s expert on Russian military affairs, has another excellent War on The Rocks podcast about the war’s state of play. Kofman estimates (his forecast begins around minute 25 of the podcast) that there will be a “major operational pause in the conflict” in the weeks ahead as Russian units reorganize and resupply.
Putin appears more willing to accept a ceasefire than he did a week or two ago due to economic pressure, the Russian military’s underperformance, stout resistance from the Ukrainian military, and growing domestic discontent. The Russian military’s actions on the ground in Ukraine are revealing.
Russian forces appear to be intentionally targeting Ukrainian military industrial facilities, including a Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) depot located next to the Antonov aircraft plant. The scouring of Ukraine’s military industrial complex may indicate that Moscow is scaling back its military and political ambitions, as Russian forces would presumably not destroy Ukraine’s military industrial capacity if they planned to use it after the conflict. Moscow seems to be abandoning its earlier, disastrous fantasies that it could occupy Ukraine either directly or via proxies.
While Putin may be scaling back his war aims, that does not necessarily mean a cease fire is imminent. Putin could very well attempt to improve his negotiating position by making a push into several Ukrainian cities, with Syrians and other non-Russians spearheading the offensive (and bearing the brunt of the casualties). Using foreign mercenaries as cannon fodder would not only limit the domestic political costs from urban warfare; it could also enable Putin to seek more maximalist objectives if he judges that his forces are making adequate progress. If the Ukrainians can hold on for several weeks, however, then Putin might be willing to accept more limited goals, such as a land bridge to Crimea, the assurance of the peninsula’s water supplies, and even Kyiv’s recognition of the peninsula; further destruction of significant Ukrainian military (and military industrial) capacity; recognition of statelets in Donetsk, Lugansk, and Kherson; or something else.
The longer the conflict runs, the more likely that Moscow will further scale back its aims. The economic, military, and psychological costs of the war are accumulating in Russia, and time is not on Putin’s side – assuming that his war effort is not financed by Beijing.
There has been much discussion in recent days about the PRC’s potential economic and/or military support for Moscow. I share the view of most observers, which is that Beijing will likely supply support Moscow economically while stopping short of substantive military assistance. The focus on the occurrence of economic assistance is misplaced, however, as the timing of any PRC aid to Moscow is arguably most critical. If Beijing supplies economic assistance to Moscow before some sort of sustainable peace agreement is reached, then the CCP will arguably be underwriting Putin’s war against Ukraine.
Table of Contents:
1) The Sullivan-Yang Bilateral Meeting
2) PRC Foreign Ministry
3) PRC Economic Ties with Putin
4) Worth Your Time
1) The Sullivan-Yang Bilateral Meeting
Senior Chinese diplomat meets U.S. national security advisor – People’s Daily
Yang Jiechi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, met with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Monday in Rome, capital of Italy.
Both sides conducted candid, in-depth and constructive communication over China-U.S. relations, as well as international and regional issues of common concern.
The two sides agree to jointly implement the consensus reached by the two heads of state, increase understanding, manage differences, expand consensus and strengthen cooperation, so as to accumulate conditions for bringing China-U.S. relations back to the track of sound and steady development.
Yang, also director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, said the implementation of the consensus between the two heads of state is the most important task for China-U.S. relations.
He said that Chinese President Xi Jinping has proposed mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation as the three principles in developing China-U.S. relations in the new era, which has charted the course for the development of the bilateral ties.
U.S. President Joe Biden responded positively with such important commitments as that the United States does not seek a new Cold War or to change China's system, nor will it oppose China through strengthening alliances, support "Taiwan independence," or seek confrontation with China, Yang said.
The Chinese side always views and handles bilateral relations in accordance with the three principles put forth by President Xi, Yang said, expressing his hope that the U.S. side can truly deliver on President Biden's promises.
Under the current international situation, China and the United States should strengthen dialogue and cooperation, properly manage differences and prevent conflict and confrontation, which not only serves the interests of the two people but also meets the expectation of the international community and the interests of people across the world, he added.
Stressing that the Taiwan question concerns China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, Yang said in the three Sino-U.S. joint communiques, the U.S. side explicitly recognized that there is only one China and that the one-China principle is the premise for establishing diplomatic relations between China and the United States as well as the political foundation of their relations.
The current U.S. administration has pledged to adhere to the one-China policy and not to support "Taiwan independence" in regard to the Taiwan question, but its actions are obviously inconsistent with its statements, he said.
The Chinese side expresses grave concern over and firm opposition to the recent wrong words and deeds of the U.S. side on Taiwan-related issues, Yang noted, adding that any attempts to condone and support "Taiwan independence" separatist forces, or play the "Taiwan card" and use the Taiwan question to contain China will be futile.
China urges the U.S. side to recognize the high sensitivity of the Taiwan question, abide by the one-China principle, the provisions of the three Sino-U.S. joint communiques and the commitments made by the U.S. side, and stop going further down the dangerous path.
Yang expounded on China's solemn position on issues related to Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong, pointing out that these issues concern China's core interests and are China's internal affairs that allow no foreign interference. Any attempt to use these issues to suppress China will fail, he said.
Yang noted that seeking common ground while shelving differences and building a bridge of cooperation on top of proper settlement of differences is the right way for China and the United States to get along with each other, which has been tested by practice since the Shanghai Communique was issued 50 years ago.
The two sides should learn from history, grasp the premise of mutual respect, hold the bottom line of peaceful coexistence and seize the key of win-win cooperation, he said.
The two sides also exchanged views on international and regional issues including the Ukraine issue, the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, the Iran nuclear issue and the Afghanistan issue. [bolded by The Report]
Comment: Lots of discussion about Taiwan, but only two words on the “Ukraine issue” and no mention of Russia at all. Also note that the PD was careful to specify that the two sides discussed the Korean Peninsula’s nuclear issue, implying that any COVID outbreak in the DPRK was not discussed.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met today with Chinese Communist Party Politburo Member and Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission Yang Jiechi in Rome, Italy. Their meeting followed up on the November 15, 2021 virtual meeting between President Biden and President Xi. Mr. Sullivan raised a range of issues in U.S.-China relations, with substantial discussion of Russia’s war against Ukraine. They also underscored the importance of maintaining open lines of communication between the United States and China.
Comment: No direct mention of Taiwan in the White House’s readout, although Sullivan raised a “range of issue in U.S.-China relations.”
2) PRC Foreign Ministry
Macau Monthly: According to unspecified US officials, the US government told allies in NATO and several Asian countries in a diplomatic note and through intelligence agents that China had signaled its willingness to provide military and economic aid to Russia at the latter’s request. It also noted China was expected to deny those plans. He also said, the move is part of a deliberate strategy move to counter disinformation by being far more open about intelligence matters than usual. What is China’s comment?
Zhao Lijian: I’m sure you have noted that Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied the claim that Russia requested military aid from China on March 14. The US has been creating and spreading false information from time to time. This is neither professional nor ethical, still less responsible. By doing so, the US will further lose the trust of the world.
What the US should do is to deeply reflect its role in the evolving situation of the Ukraine crisis, and do more things that can help to ease the situation.
Bloomberg: More than 2.5 million people have fled Ukraine since Russia invaded on February 24. That’s according to the UN which also says that close to 600 people have died, and 1000 others have been injured. So my questions to you are how worried is China about Russia’s assaults on cities and the toll on civilians this is taking? And what efforts, if any, has China made to convince Russia to stop its attacks on cities, residential areas and medical facilities that people around the world have been witnessing?
Zhao Lijian: China is aggrieved by the evolving situation in Ukraine. There are complex historical merits and background of the Ukraine issue. China is also aggrieved to see the evolving situation. The crisis is the result of the interplay of complex factors. The Chinese leadership, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, MFA spokespersons and other diplomatic officials as well as competent authorities have been working for peace talks. Our spokespersons have also shared with you China’s efforts in great detail.
China has also provided humanitarian assistance for Ukraine. I can share with you that the third batch of humanitarian supplies from China arrived in Poland yesterday and will be soon delivered to Ukraine. China’s position and statement on the Ukraine issue is completely objective, just and constructive. We have a clear goal, that is, to deescalate the situation and put an end to the conflict as soon as possible. We believe China’s position will receive understanding and support from more and more countries.
AFP: Just to follow up on the issue of disinformation and the Ukraine crisis. So China has previously accused the US of starting the fire and fanning the flames in the Ukraine invasion. In this case, on the other hand, will China commit to not sending help to Russia in its invasion and not adding fuel to the fire?
Zhao Lijian: I just clearly stated China’s position on relevant issues. Our position on the Ukraine issue is beyond reproach.
AFP: Just a clarification on your answer to my earlier question, is China concerned about any potential sanctions from the US if the situation develops? The US has said that they are watching for any actions on the Chinese side. So is China concerned about potential sanctions and is that part of the consideration in whether or not it could provide assistance to Russia if there is such a request being made as media reports have suggested?
Zhao Lijian: China has stated its position on sanctions on multiple occasions. China does not agree with resolving issues with sanctions, still less unilateral sanctions that lack the basis of international law. Reality has long proven that sanctions not only fail to resolve problems, but will create new ones. It will result in a situation where multiple players lose, and will disrupt the process of political settlement. The world economy is facing enough difficulties already. Sanctions will only create shocks to world economic recovery and do no good to any parties. We strongly urge the US not to undermine the interests of China and other parities when handling the relations with Russia. China and Russia will continue to conduct normal economic and trade cooperation in the spirit of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefits. [Bolded by The Report]
Comment: Zhao also received a question about the biolab conspiracy theory and responded with a six-paragraph answer.
Wang Yi said, the Ukraine crisis is the upshot of security tensions accumulated and intensified in Europe over the years. While encouraging Russia and Ukraine to reach a ceasefire and stop the war through peace talks, China also hopes that Europe and Russia can engage in equal-footed dialogue and negotiations to find reasonable solutions to each other's security concerns and establish a balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture. China always opposes the use of sanctions to solve problems, let alone unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law, as such moves will undermine international rules and harm the people's wellbeing in all countries. China is not a party directly involved in the crisis, and it doesn't want to be affected by sanctions even more.
3) PRC Economic Ties with Putin
““It really is a project of Xi Jinping. He is totally, fundamentally behind this closer partnership with Russia,” the US official said. There is more scepticism lower down the ranks, but Xi and Putin have bonded over their shared view of the US as being heavy- and high-handed, and determined to end the period of US global dominance.”
China Seeks to Cut Reliance on Coal Imports With Mining Boom – Bloomberg
NDRC aims to increase output capacity by 300 million tons; Country sets target of 620 million tons of coal reserves
Comment: This measure will reduce China’s need for Russian coal and natural gas imports. More on China’s coal/natural gas imports in a future edition.
4) Worth Your Time
Putin in His Labyrinth: Alexander Gabuev on the View from Moscow – The Octavian Report
The department of the Russian presidential administration that works on Ukraine stuff has always been the domestic unit. The diplomats have never been involved, and the quality of people working on Ukraine has been really terrible. They have all these misconceptions, because Russians and Ukrainians of Putin’s generation used to be part of the same country.
Russia’s Logistical Problems May Slow Down Russia’s Advance – But They Are Unlikely to Stop It - Alex Vershinin for Modern War Institute
Keeping a modern military supplied with fuel and ammunition is always a major challenge, especially when launching deep offensive operations that stretch supply lines. Even the US Army had to have an operational pause during Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003 due to logistics shortfalls and truck shortages. The Russian military is no exception. While Russian forces are facing serious logistical challenges, armies have overcome such difficulties in the past, and they are unlikely to prove fatal for the invasion.
Comment: Very important corrective from Greene. Watch the story involving Marina Ovsyannikova, the “TV sign” protester, closely – but carefully.
Comment: Growing body of evidence suggesting that President Zelensky is psychologically preparing Ukrainians for an unpleasant but perhaps necessary peace agreement.
v/r,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.