Vladimir Putin has met several times this month with Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko to discuss Putin’s decision to cut energy subsidies from Belarus and “progress towards further integration between Russia and Belarus.” The energy subsidy cut could cripple Belarus’s economy, spark protests, and ultimately lead to Lukashenko’s ouster via popular revolution or an elite-led coup. Some have speculated that Putin is seeking to absorb Belarus into Russia.
The PRC seems to be taking a potential annexation seriously. China’s Ambassador to Belarus interviewed this week with a Belarussian state media organization. The timing of the interview is not likely to be a coincidence. General Secretary Xi and Putin exchanged New Year’s Greetings, according to Xinhua, but it’s very possible they discussed Belarus.
Annexation, if it occurs, likely won’t happen overnight, linearly, or even formally. But Belarus may prove to be a defining Western-Putin security challenge in 2019. Don’t be shocked if Putin formally or informally annexes Belarus.
Lukashenko has managed to maintain power since Belarus’s independence. He is a wily politician who understands how to manage Russia and Putin very, very well. Most Western experts on Russia are highly skeptical that Putin will be able to strong-arm Lukashenko/Belarus into closer integration this time: they’ve watched Lukashenko and Belarus muddle through crisis after crisis and maintain semi-autonomy for decades now.
This time could be different, however. Putin’s domestic political standing is perhaps more uncertain than at any time since the early years of his rule. He may be willing to take more foreign policy risks – if, and this is a big if – he believes the expected benefits of annexation outweigh the expected costs. Belarussian elites will seek to retain their privileges, but a significant fraction of them (maybe Lukashenko himself) could be coopted by Putin amid a recession. It appears that the Western expert community is underestimating the probability of an annexation.
Why would Putin seek to annex Belarus? First, Putin’s domestic political problems are serious and getting worse. Putin’s approval ratings have fallen to about 60-65%, according to the Levada Center; Russia’s growing economic difficulties will likely further diminish his popular and elite support. A successful annexation of Belarus could, if properly executed, represent a “small, victorious war” (or, if you like, “small, victorious economic/political conquest”), demonstrate that Russia is a Great Power once again, and boost Putin’s sagging approval ratings. Second, a Belarussian annexation could prove to be the Russian equivalent of 杀鸡儆猴 (kill the chicken to scare the monkey): Putin could use the annexation to demonstrate his willingness to undertake risks and warn off would-be domestic and international rivals. Finally, as preposterous as it seems to many in the West, the Russian security establishment does genuinely fear that Western military forces could invade Belarus and even Russia. In 2017, Russia and Belarus undertook combined military exercises to prepare for a Western invasion of Belarus. Greater access to Belarussian territory could enable Russian forces to site additional military potential alongside NATO countries. Other explanations are possible, of course.
Several factors will constrain any attempts to absorb Belarus. Absorption could provoke a violent backlash from Belarussian society, damaging Putin’s elite and popular support in Russia. While Russia and Belarus share real cultural/linguistic/economic ties, the majority of Belarussians appear to distinguish between the two countries. Economic pressure on Belarus and the withdrawal of subsidies could also backfire dramatically: Lukashenko could somewhat plausibly redirect Belarussian anger for economic difficulties onto Putin. Alternatively, economic difficulties in Belarus could provide tinder for popular protests, maybe even a revolution. Putin hates and fears peaceful protests, particularly ones in neighboring states that could spread to Russia. And, of course, rapid or even gradual annexation would likely inflame security tensions with the West/NATO, particularly Poland and the Balts, leading to more sanctions and troop deployments along NATO’s eastern border. The PRC’s role may be somewhat more interesting.
China does not want to have to choose between Europe/the West and Russia. The PRC also does NOT want Putin to annex Belarus via another Crimea-style independence referendum, which could have implications for the Taiwan issue. Chinese state media appear to be quietly urging Putin not to upset the status quo: the Chinese Ambassador to Belarus interviewed with a Belarussian state-run media outlet and said Belarus and China are “all-weather friends.” The People’s Daily said China and Russia should “promote development of bilateral ties as well as contribute to maintaining international fairness and justice and world peace and stability." Note the key word “maintaining.”
China-Russia-Belarus
Cui Qiming: Belarus and China are all-weather friends – Belta (Belarus state-owned media outlet)
Belta: “Mr Ambassador, who are Belarus and China for each other?”
Chinese Ambassador to Belarus Cui Qiming:
“True friends and mutually beneficial partners. The Belarusian-Chinese friendship has stood the test of time and is growing stronger. To be more specific, bilateral contacts have been steadily gaining momentum on all fronts. In 2018, under the strategic leadership of Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the Belarusian-Chinese relations of trust-based comprehensive strategic partnership and mutually beneficial cooperation became stronger, the political trust between the two countries grew. China and Belarus provide each other increasingly strong support in matters relating to the most important interests of both states. It is obvious that the relations between the countries at all levels grow closer every day. This is especially manifested in the Road and Belt initiative.”
Belta: What are the prospects of the Belarusian-Chinese cooperation?
Cui Qiming:
“China and Belarus are undoubtedly an example of countries whose relations are built on mutual respect, equal communication and mutually beneficial cooperation. China is ready to continue cooperating with Belarus to maintain a high level of bilateral relations, implement the agreements reached by the leaders of the two countries, and work on the development of all-weather friendship. I am confident that in 2019 China and Belarus will further strengthen support on issues of mutual interest. The parties will continue aligning strategic development of the two states [emphasis added by the Report], and intensify the implementation of the Belt and Road initiative. The focus will also be on the construction of the Chinese-Belarusian industrial park and investment.”
Comment: It’s often said that Asian countries don’t want to choose between China and the US. Similarly, China doesn’t want to have to choose between Russia and the West.
China appears to recognize the risks of annexation, which would likely include additional Western sanctions on Russia, military tensions, and the potential for a security dilemma spiral in Eastern Europe.
Also worth noting that Xinhua prominently interviewed a Belarussian diplomat in China during the last(?) annexation scare in early 2017, possibly to encourage Putin to back off.
Belarus and Russia
Meeting with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko – The Kremlin
Alexander Lukashenko: Thank you, Mr Putin, first of all for your invitation just ahead of the New Year. I was joking that we are tired of each other. We probably never will be, because there are issues that need to be discussed, this is our work.
Indeed, last time we agreed that we would talk seriously about our further coexistence in this difficult world; we cannot get away from it because many problems must be dealt with for the future. Therefore, I have indeed been working hard on the coordination of the same issues that we need to consider so that they would not stand in the way of our integration – just as I know you have, too.
We have formed a group in a similar way as in Russia, and made similar decisions to you in terms of the membership and leadership of the group. I think that after the holidays, as soon as the time comes, we will be ready to work, as will you here in Russia. Moreover, all the questions are spelled out in the Union Treaty; we have listed them last time. And indeed it is good that we finally came to the solution of these issues.
Vladimir Putin: Thank you. This may be a start of a good tradition to meet before the New Year.
Alexander Lukashenko: Maybe. I also want to wish a Happy New Year to you, to the Russian people, our brothers. This is a highly anticipated holiday. I know you love this holiday, as do I. Please pass on my best wishes to your family, friends and all Russians.
Vladimir Putin: For my part, I wish a Happy New Year to you and all of Belarus and all citizens of Belarus. I wish you happiness and good luck in the New Year.
Alexander Lukashenko: Thank you.
Comment: Lukashenko is, as you would expect, a highly nuanced manager of Belarussian-Russian relations. Lukashenko wished a Happy New Year to the “Russian people, our brothers,” suggesting that Russians and Belarussians are fraternal but distinct.
Putin wished a happy new year to all “citizens of Belarus.” This could reflect an awkward translation or, alternatively, Putin is making a distinction between civilizational and national identity.
Meeting with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko – The Kremlin
Lukashenko:
“We are grateful to you for choosing the time for our meeting here to discuss the issues we need to discuss in light of the many problems in our relations, which, to tell the truth, are very advanced and close. No other peoples have closer relations than Belarusians and Russians.
I would like to have fewer problems for us or our ministers and governments to deal with, but some of these waves reach us as well. And it is our destiny to deal with them. I believe that, being aware of these problems, we will once again find a solution that will be acceptable to both Belarusians and Russians.”
Comment: Again, Lukashenko distinguishing between Belarussians and Russians.
Putin also had telephone conversations with heads of state from Germany, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Armenia, according to the Kremlin’s website
China – Russia
China to work with Russia to prepare for high-level contact next year – People’s Daily
“Next year marks the 70th anniversary of diplomatic ties between China and Russia, [Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying] said. China and Russia have long maintained a tradition of supporting each other in hosting major events, as well as annual exchange of visits between the two heads of state.
She noted that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin accepted invitations from each other at their meeting during the 13th G20 summit in Buenos Aires, to attend major international events to be held by the two countries in the first half of next year. Hua mentioned that Assistant Foreign Minister Zhang Hanhui held talks with the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov on Dec. 21 in Beijing, discussing high-level contact arrangements between the two countries next year.
The two sides agreed that the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination had been fruitful and ran at a high level this year. "Grand and colorful activities will be held to celebrate the 70th anniversary of China-Russia diplomatic relations next year, to consolidate the friendship between the two peoples, promote development of bilateral ties as well as contribute to maintaining international fairness and justice and world peace and stability," Hua said.”
Comment: “Maintaining” – not creating – international fairness and justice and world peace and stability. Interesting. Reference to Belarus? There’s no open discussion of Belarus in the article.
Also, probably some back-and-forth over what Putin’s title will be at the BRI summit in April.
Putin to become key guest at Belt and Road Forum in China – TASS
“Russian President Vladimir Putin will become a key guest and participant of the second international Belt and Road Forum due in April 2019 in the Chinese capital of Beijing, Russia’s Ambassador to China Andrei Denisov said on Wednesday.
According to the Chinese partners’ preliminary estimates, some 40 heads of state and government are expected to arrive, and the forum will have a rather large program and various meetings will be held. They tell us that the Russian president will be a key guest and the most important participant among foreign guests, that’s why the program for him will have a special character and will envisage events as part of his visit to China.”
Comment: The Report wishes to congratulate Vladimir Putin for his ascension to “key guest” at the Belt and Road Forum.
At the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Putin announced that General Secretary Xi Jinping will be the St. Petersburg International Economics Forum’s “main guest” in June. Xi, for his part, noted that Putin would be a “participant” at the 2nd BRI summit in April. Looks like Xi is adjusting the status imbalance, partially.
The PRC is usually very adroit at flattering Putin. Look for Putin’s status to be upgraded again before April, although I doubt he will be the “main guest” at the BRI summit.
Russian ambassador to China calls shipbuilding promising area of bilateral cooperation –TASS
Comment: Worth reading this article by the Kyiv Post.
China’s top legislator plans to visit Russia in 2019 – TASS
The Chinese ambassador pointed out that cooperation between Beijing and Moscow "has progressed a lot." "We believe that our relations are going through the best period in history," he added.
China-EU
Huawei: China accuses UK of 'pride and prejudice’ -BBC
China, Russia, and Energy Markets
Russia Warns U.S. Against Interfering in Saudi Royal Succession – Bloomberg
Comment: Russia’s relationship with Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be interesting in 2019.
Next US Congress to keep pressure on Russian energy sector – S&P Platts
In Venezuela, Russia pockets key energy assets in exchange for cash bailouts – Washington Post
Central Asia
Emperor Nero Of Turkmenistan Sees Out 2018 – Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL
Outlook 2019: Caspian oil producers to prioritize output growth – S&P Platts
Russia
2019: The Twilight of Putin’s Political Monopoly? By Tatiana Stanovaya for Riddle
“2019 may become a year of fragmentation in Russia’s political field accompanied by growing international pressure. Sanctions and isolation will continue to take their toll. The stakes in the geopolitical game look set to rise. That will keep Putin from addressing domestic political issues head on. ,Already, the President gets scant briefings about major high-profile cases, such as “Novoye Velichie” or “Set”. He remains aloof from domestic political squabbles, which are important for most progressive groups in Russia. So could there soon be a first systemic opponent of Putin appearing inside Russia? In general, the notion of “Putin’s systemic opponent” is a political oxymoron. Anything “systemic” must be in Putin’s favour. Yet the moment when the first systemic player (be it a major businessman, a member of the ruling party or a governor) decides to challenge the president will be the first powerful signal that the regime is no longer as strong as it used to be. The main question of the coming year is whether or to what degree Putin will lose his political monopoly.”
Where's Putin's Mojo? – Steve Gutterman for RFE/RL
BBC’s Steve Rosenberg on Russian newspapers and 2019
Is a Russian military operation against Ukraine likely in the near future? – Michael Kofman
“As of today it seems Ukraine will not be extending the 30 day state of martial law, which casts some doubt on the urgency and immediacy of the anticipated Russian threat as presented earlier this month by Ukrainian authorities.”
That’s all for this week, folks. Thank you for reading. Wishing you a wonderful New Year.
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Until next week,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan weekly newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.