China encourages negotiations – or Ukraine to surrender?
Putin faces setbacks
With the caveat that information from a war zone is extremely uncertain, Russian casualty levels are unknown but, by all accounts, quite high. The performance of the Russian military has been unimpressive so far – but also remember that it is only the third day of conflict and they have, so far, used only a fraction of their combat capacity. Russian forces have, so far, largely refrained from using their most destructive conventional capabilities in a bid to minimize civilian casualties, limit Ukrainian resistance, and control the international narrative (perhaps with a view to Beijing’s calculus in the conflict). Michael Kofman also estimates that fewer than half or even a third of all Russian combat power has been employed.
Russian military planners very likely sought a quick victory by decapitating the political leadership in Kyiv. This was always a very high risk strategy, and it appears to be failing as of this writing.
The war in Ukraine will likely get *much* uglier in the next few days due to political and technical factors. (Indeed, in the next few minutes, as Russian forces appear to be assaulting Kyiv as this goes to press). With his initial “lightning decapitation” plans apparently foiled, Putin will likely commit a greater fraction of Russia’s combat power, reach for his most destructive conventional capabilities, and attempt to subdue resistance by brute force. Furthermore, as Dara Massicot notes, Russian forces may be close to expending their precision-guided munitions (PGM).
Did Western intelligence get tipped off by an OPSEC breach by Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov? Russian intelligence and military officials have long hated Kadyrov and won’t like this one bit. If Putin leaves office - and he might within the next few weeks, depending on how the invasion goes - we will likely hear more about Kadyrov.
The EU also just announced SWIFT sanctions and other harsh penalties against Moscow and Kremlin-connected oligarchs. Not only is this enormously important for the crisis – and virtually unthinkable not too long ago – but it is also something for Beijing to think about with respect to Taiwan.
Finally, did Putin promise Beijing a quick fait accompli? I see some initial and limited evidence for that theory, as it could explain the actions of both Moscow and Beijing. I’ll explore that more in depth later this week as more information becomes available. Glory to Ukraine.
China’s perspectives
Chinese, Russian presidents hold phone conversation – People’s Daily
Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, on Friday held a phone conversation.
During the phone conversation, Xi thanked Putin again for coming to China to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics, and congratulated the Russian athletes on finishing second in the Winter Olympics medal table.
Putin extended warm congratulations to all the Chinese people for the complete success of the Beijing Winter Olympics and for the outstanding performance of the Chinese delegation.
The two sides mainly exchanged views on the current Ukrainian situation.
Putin introduced the historical context of the Ukraine issue as well as Russia's special military operation in eastern Ukraine and its position.
He said that the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have long ignored Russia's legitimate security concerns, repeatedly broken their commitments and continuously pushed their military deployment eastwards, which challenged Russia's strategic bottom line.
Russia is ready to hold high-level negotiation with Ukraine, said Putin.
Xi pointed out that recent dramatic changes in the situation in eastern Ukraine have drawn great attention from the international community, adding that China decides on its position based on the merits of the Ukrainian issue itself.
He called on dropping the Cold War mentality, attaching importance and respecting the legitimate security concerns of various countries and forming a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism through negotiation.
The Chinese side supports the Russian side in solving the issue through negotiation with the Ukrainian side [Comment: The Russian side has essentially insisted that the Ukrainians surrender prior to any negotiation, see next article], Xi said, adding that China has been consistent in its basic position on respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries and abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.
China is ready to work with members of the international community to embrace the concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, and firmly uphold the international system with the United Nations at its core and the international order based on international law, Xi said.
Russia continues to hit Ukraine targets, with Moscow-Kiev talks expected – People’s Daily
Moscow continued to exert hefty pressure on Kiev by striking more military targets in Ukraine [Comment: note the implication that only military targets were hit, ignoring any collateral damage], while the two sides have expressed intention to start direct dialogue.
The Russian armed forces have disabled 211 military infrastructure facilities in Ukraine since the operation began on early Thursday, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Friday night, up from 118 facilities reported in his morning briefing.
During the fighting, a large number of weapons supplied by Western countries to Ukraine over the past few months have been seized, including the Javelin anti-tank missile systems from the United States, Konashenkov said.
The Russian forces have blockaded Kiev after capturing the Gostomel airfield in a suburb of Kiev, killing more than 200 members of Ukraine's special units.
Russia has also taken full control of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and military units of the two sides there have reached agreement on the protection of the nuclear facilities and the sarcophagus.
Russian President Vladimir Putin chaired a meeting with permanent members of the country's Security Council via video link on Friday, commending the performance of Russian soldiers and officers.
"The Russian army's main armed clashes are taking place not with regular Ukrainian armed forces' units but with nationalist groups," he said.
The president noted that Ukraine's nationalists are deploying heavy weapons, including multiple-rocket launchers, right in the central districts of large cities, including Kiev and Kharkov.
Putin urged the Ukrainian military to "take power into your own hands."
Russia has no intention of occupying Ukraine and Moscow is ready to hold negotiations straight after the Ukrainian forces "lay down their arms," [bolded by The Report] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a press conference on Friday.
Comment: Dear reporters, please STOP writing that China is urging negotiations. As the People’s Daily itself reports, Russia says they will not hold negotiations until Ukrainian forces surrender, while “The Chinese side supports the Russian side in solving the issue through negotiation with the Ukrainian side.” The PRC may be encouraging Ukrainian forces to surrender – not enter negotiations.
Chinese FM elaborates China's basic position on Ukrainian issue – People’s Daily
Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday elaborated China's basic position on the Ukrainian issue.
He made these remarks and exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine during his phone talks with British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell as well as Emmanuel Bonne, diplomatic counselor to French President Emmanuel Macron, respectively.
Wang expounded on China's basic position on the Ukrainian issue in the following five points.
First, China firmly stands for respecting and safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries and earnestly abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, said Wang.
Secondly, China advocates the concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, he said.
Thirdly, he said, "China has been following the evolution of the Ukrainian issue, and the present situation is something we do not want to see."
Fourth, the Chinese side supports and encourages all diplomatic efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.
Fifth, China believes that the UN Security Council should play a constructive role in resolving the Ukrainian issue and that regional peace and stability as well as the security of all countries should be the priorities, he added.
UN Security Council fails to adopt resolution on Ukraine – People’s Daily
The draft resolution, proposed by the United States and Albania, was rejected because it was vetoed by permanent member Russia.
UNITED NATIONS, Feb. 25 (Xinhua) -- The UN Security Council on Friday failed to adopt a draft resolution on Ukraine.
The draft resolution, proposed by the United States and Albania, was rejected because it was vetoed by permanent member Russia.
Any negative vote, known as veto, from the council's five permanent members means a failed resolution.
Comment: Note the framing that the motion, which was supported by 11 out of 15 members, “failed.” Also, would the People’s Daily care to share how the PRC voted on the matter?
The PRC voted to abstain. I don’t understand why some are treating this as a “victory” for western diplomacy, as the PRC was always highly unlikely to veto the resolution. As in the debate over Syria, the PRC will let Russia issue a veto and play the bad cop. This allows the PRC to manage Russia while West.
U.S. sanctions Putin, Lavrov over Russian military operation in Ukraine – People’s Daily
The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden will sanction Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov over Moscow's ongoing military operation in Ukraine, the White House confirmed Friday.
Comment: Purely matter-of-fact
We need to understand [the feelings of Ukrainians] and not provoke them. We must demonstrate the friendliness and rationality that we Chinese have always possessed. China's policy towards Ukraine has always been friendly. We respect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, hope that Ukraine will maintain peace and stability, and hope to resolve the current crisis through political negotiations.
我们要理解他们的这种心情，不能刺激他们。我们要拿出我们中国人民一向具备的友好和理性。中国对乌的政策一向是友好的。我们尊重乌的独立、主权和领土完整，希望乌保持和平稳定，希望通过政治谈判解决当前的危机。
Recently, with the escalation of the war between Ukraine and Russia [bolded by The Report], extreme behaviors in Ukrainian society have increased, rude remarks and even shooting with guns, posing safety risks to my Chinese citizens in Ukraine.
最近一段时间，随着乌俄战事不断升级，乌社会上极端行为增加，出言不逊甚至持枪射击，给我在乌中国公民造成安全风险。
From today (February 26), the curfew in Kiev will be from 17:00 today to 8:00 on February 28. All those who go out during the curfew are considered enemy saboteurs. All compatriots in Ukraine must abide by the curfew regulations and do not go out.
Western responses
U.S. Weighs Sanctions on Russia’s Central Bank Over Ukraine – Bloomberg
The U.S. is weighing sanctions on Russia’s central bank, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that would target much of the $643 billion reserves that President Russian Vladimir Putin had amassed ahead of a planned invasion of Ukraine.
Italy to support EU line on Russia sanctions, including on SWIFT -PM's office – Reuters
Italy will support any European Union line on sanctions against Russia in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, including measures on the SWIFT global payment system, Prime Minister Mario Draghi's office said on Saturday.
Comment: Read on twitter that Germany and Hungary have also signed on. SWIFT sanctions are highly likely to be imposed in a matter of days.
EU Edges Toward Supporting Expulsion of Russia From SWIFT System – Bloomberg
Germany OKs weapons for Ukraine in major shift on military aid – Politico EU
Germany has authorized the Netherlands to send Ukraine 400 rocket-propelled grenade launchers to aid in the fight against Russian invaders, according to two EU officials — marking an abrupt shift in Berlin’s military policy amid pressure from EU and NATO allies.
Until Saturday, Germany had clung to a longstanding practice of not permitting lethal weapons that it controlled to be transferred into a conflict zone.
Comment: This massive shift in German foreign policy, if sustained, will reverberate across the world.
Putin’s rationality, revisited
I posted my response to a reader, Paul, who wrote:
Wondering if Joe remains comfortable with his "Putin is a rational actor" assessment. Putin seems a rather clositered, paranoid Captain Queeg, tumbling his ball bearings, surprised by resistance, advising Ukrainians to rise up against their Neo-Nazi (sic) leaders, the Macron embassy's take on Putin's curious behavior, etc. Evidence piles up that, as malignant narcissist (like Trump}, he's disastrously all-in on what increasingly seems a disastrous, maniacal course that has surely bewildered his intended domestic audience.
Given the unimpressive and potentially disastrous character of the Russian intervention to date, I've also been questioning the "Putin is a rational actor" assumption myself in recent days. After reflection, however, I do stand by my assessment that Putin is a rational actor. We'll have more evidence very soon.
The war is still in its early days and Russia, in keeping with previous practice, apparently attempted to minimize its costs by launching a decapitation strike at Kyiv. That strategy, while highly risky, was potentially highly "rational": the expected benefits from a lightning war may have exceeded the expected costs, at least from Putin's perspective. Moscow's decapitation strike appears to have failed, however, at least of this writing.
What comes next will determine if Putin is a rational dictator or Captain Queeg. If Putin made no contingency plans (or bizarre ones) in the event of the lightning strike's failure then yes, that would be clear evidence that he is not rationally assessing probabilities and consequences. But with Russian troops on the move across Ukraine he does appear to have next steps in mind. I fear that the next phase of the conflict will be much more brutal, but perhaps more effective in accomplishing his goals.
I've maintained that Putin's escalation serves dual purposes: 1) securing Crimea, which is critical for his domestic legitimacy; and 2) undermining his constitutional democracy rivals. I've argued that 2) has motivated Putin less than 1). But I could have been wrong. It may be that Putin's primary objective in the escalation, in fact, was to diminish performance legitimacy of constitutional democracy and empower personalistic authoritarianism and populism across Europe and North America.
If Putin is, in fact, seeking to undermine constitutional democracies he would 1) certainly not verbalize this to foreign audiences, much less domestic ones and 2) use deception. His actions, while bewildering, may be rational.
Comment: We’ll see how this comment holds up but, if true, then 1) the next few weeks could be disastrous for Putin; 2) this war will have made zero sense; and 3) there would be substantial evidence that Putin is psychologically unbalanced, receiving extraordinarily inaccurate briefings, or both. Extraordinary dangers could be ahead.
v/r,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.