Not a lot of commentary up top today in this short edition. I have several energy and/or geopolitics publications in train on topics involving Russia, the PRC, and Taiwan.
A couple of items worth tracking, no pun intended: the PRC and Russia are developing ground-based lasers that could damage Western satellite sensors, per the US Space Force. Additionally, PRC civil aviation flights between Xiamen and Fuzhou will now fly near the median line separating Taiwan and the mainland.
Finally, I’d like to welcome Stephen C. Bleistine of Lafayette College, who will be helping me compile the CRR this semester and contributing some analysis, although as always I alone am responsible for the entirety of its contents. Thank you for reading.
- Joe Webster
Table of Contents:
1) DPRK – Russia ballistic missile cooperation
2) Beijing’s perspective on DPRK – Russia cooperation
3) Russian military operates in Indo-Pacific
4) China – Russia political and economic ties
5) Chinese and Russian disinformation
6) Chinese and Russian energy
1) DPRK – Russia ballistic missile cooperation
White House says Russia used missiles from North Korea to strike Ukraine – Reuters [January 4th]
Russia recently used short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) sourced from North Korea to conduct multiple strikes against Ukraine, the White House said on Thursday, citing newly declassified intelligence.
The United States will continue to disrupt and expose arms transfers between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and Russia. As part of that continued effort, the Department of State is today imposing sanctions on one individual and three entities complicit in the transfer to Russia and testing of DPRK-origin ballistic missiles by Russia since late November 2023.
North Korea’s Missiles Are Being Tested on the Battlefields of Ukraine – WSJ [Jan 19th]
Russian use of weapons supplied by the Kim Jong Un regime could boost Pyongyang’s illicit-arms business
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui outlined their countries' intentions to develop cooperation to ensure peace and stability on the planet at their meeting on January 16, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.
North Korea reports testing new cruise missile - World – TASS [January 24th]
“On January 24, North Korea conducted the first test launch of Pulhwasal-3-31, a cruise missile of a new type which is still under development, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on Thursday.”
Comment: While this may be just another standard DPRK missile test, it is interesting timing, given the recent DPRK delegation to Moscow.
2) Beijing’s perspective on DPRK – Russia cooperation
Xinhua News Agency, Moscow, January 17 (Reporter Zhao Bing) Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov said on the 17th that Russia will develop relations with North Korea in all fields, "including in sensitive areas."
According to a TASS news agency report on the 17th, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with the visiting North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui on the 16th. The two sides discussed bilateral cooperation, the situation on the Korean Peninsula and other issues, and exchanged views on the most pressing international issues. The report quoted Peskov as saying that North Korea is a very important partner of Russia and "our goal is to develop relations in all areas, including sensitive areas."
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs website issued a notice on the 16th that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov held talks with Cui Shanhui that day. In his speech before the start of the talks, Lavrov said that the two sides will continue to have dialogue on the situation on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia as a whole. Russia adheres to the principled position of resolving existing issues comprehensively and fairly, and has always advocated the settlement of existing issues without any preconditions. It will promote the negotiation process to achieve lasting peace and stability throughout Northeast Asia.
Comment: No explicit or implicit disapproval from Beijing in this report. Makes you wonder if the PRC is helping to backfill DPRK military kit being shipped to Russia.
3) Russian military operates in Indo-Pacific
Russia warship conducts anti-submarine drill in South China Sea – agencies – Reuters
Russia's Pacific Fleet frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov has conducted an anti-submarine exercise in the South China Sea, Russian news agency reported on Monday, citing the fleet's press service.
After detecting a mock enemy submarine and confirming its coordinates from a helicopter crew, the warship fired torpedoes and depth charges - anti-submarine warfare weapons, the agency reported, the Interfax news agency reported.
4) China – Russia political and economic ties
Wang Yi calls for intensifying China-Russia strategic coordination – People’s Daily [January 11th]
As two responsible major countries, China and Russia should strengthen strategic communication, build more strategic consensuses and carry out more strategic cooperation on the future of mankind and the world, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said here on Wednesday. [Comment: implication here, of course, that there are irresponsible major countries]
…
In the past year, under the strategic guidance of Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era has been running on high gear, said Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee.
…
Noting that Russia-China relations have yielded fruitful results in 2023, Lavrov said that in the new year, Russia stands ready to work with China to maintain high-level exchanges, strengthen bilateral cooperation in such areas as economy, trade, and investment, deepen people-to-people exchanges in the fields of sports and culture, hold successful China-Russia Year of Culture, advance communication and coordination in international affairs, and join hands to push for new achievements in bilateral relations.
Russia firmly adheres to the one-China principle, he added.
The two sides also exchanged views on BRICS cooperation and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Lavrov said Russia is willing to work with China to promote BRICS cooperation to achieve greater results, and strengthen communication and coordination on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to safeguard peace and stability in the Middle East.
Wang said China fully supports Russia, which assumes BRICS chairmanship this year, in hosting a successful BRICS summit, and stands ready to make joint efforts with Russia to enhance the international influence of BRICS and lift BRICS cooperation to a new level.
Both China and Russia should continue to beef up communication and coordination, and urge for an immediate ceasefire and cessation of hostilities in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, ensure smooth delivery of humanitarian relief, and make joint efforts for restarting the two-state solution.
They also discussed other international and regional issues of common concern.
Comment: I’m wondering what the other international and regional issues of common concern are.
China snubs Zelenskyy in Switzerland – Politico Europe
Ukrainian leaders made no secret of wanting to meet with Chinese officials in Switzerland this week but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has headed home without the desired encounter in a blow to Kyiv.
…
In the end, Ukraine made no headway on getting China to commit to negotiations, and Zelenskyy and Li failed to speak.
Chinese Engineers Are Keeping Russia’s Metal Furnaces Firing – Bloomberg
From the Urals to the Arctic Circle, Beijing is helping to keep Moscow’s heavy industry alive.
Moscow imports a third of battlefield tech from western companies – FT
Ukrainian officials find US and European components in Russian equipment
Comment: About $1.9 billion out of $7.3 billion in critical battlefield components were produced in China.
5) Chinese and Russian disinformation
Fakes, forgeries and the meaning of meaning in our post-truth era – FT
It’s only a matter of time before disinformation leads to disaster
6) Chinese and Russian energy
Clean energy leads charge in China’s 2023 economic growth – Radio Free Asia
Analysis shows the sector solely drove the country’s investment growth.
Russia’s planned gas pipeline to China hit by construction delay – FT
Moscow and Beijing have not yet agreed details of mammoth infrastructure project, says Mongolian prime minister
Comment: This is unsurprising, as PoS-2’s project economics are highly unfavorable. The pipeline will likely never be built.
Major energy exporters to China, including the United States and Australia, have every reason to keep an eye on Chinese offshore wind development. China’s wind-generated power will significantly reduce and potentially eliminate its reliance on Australian thermal coal but is much less likely to remove China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) needs.
Comment: China’s deployment of various energy technologies – renewables, batteries, heat pumps, electric vehicles, energy efficiency measures, and clean (or maybe not so clean) hydrogen – will have major implications for its demand for external energy demand. There’s increasingly strong evidence that Beijing will be able in the medium term to eliminate imports of thermal coal, which are used for power and heating.
Chinese thermal coal imports from Russia (and Australia) will likely fall to zero in the medium term. Importantly, China restored tariffs on Russian coal imports in early 2024.
It’ll be harder for China to eliminate natural gas imports, including from Russia, but the Power of Siberia-2 is exceedingly unlikely to ever be constructed due to China’s rapidly evolving energy system.
Until next time,
Joe
Joseph Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and editor of the China-Russia Report. This article represents his own personal opinion: he alone is responsible for the entirety of its contents.
Stephen Bleistine assisted with the compiling of this edition.
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.