Farewell, Alexander Lukashenko?
Farewell, Alexander Lukashenko?
Chinese Embassy in Moscow absorbs Belarus-related updates
The Chinese Embassy in Russia is now including some Belarus-related updates in its Russia “related news” section. This could reflect simple carelessness, as the Chinese word for Russia (俄罗斯) is similar to Belarus (白俄罗斯, literally “White Russia”). There are reasons to think the placement is intentional, however. Belarus has not been included in this section’s updates going back to 2016, and the Belarus-related articles have been in place at least a week, and probably since January 10th. I don’t know what, if anything, the PRC is implying, but it does not appear to be good news for Belarusian sovereignty – or Alexander Lukashenko.
Source: Chinese Foreign Ministry via China’s Embassy in Moscow
Is the PRC, having got wind of some plan, signaling its support for the absorption of Belarus by Russia? Indeed, could Putin use tensions over Ukraine – or even the upcoming “Allied Resolve” military exercises in Belarus – as cover for some sort of coup in Minsk?
Several factors militate against a Russian takeover in the near-term. Belarusian nationalism is real, and mischief in Belarus would not solve Putin’s long-term problems in Ukraine – namely, changing regional military balances, Ukrainians’ growing political alienation from Moscow, and Crimea’s insecure water supply. Indeed, overthrowing Lukashenko amid a potential escalation in Ukraine would seem to create difficult problems for Putin when he least needs them. While the Chinese embassy in Moscow’s inclusion of Belarus in a Russia-related news section is odd and may ultimately portend ill tidings for Lukashenko and Belarusian sovereignty, Putin will probably not take action in Belarus until the Ukraine crisis is stabilized.
It’s nevertheless worth watching Putin’s Belarus-related maneuvers, particularly after any potential escalation in Ukraine stabilizes. The bloody and brutal crackdown of protesters in late summer 2020 has moved the Belarusian political and security elite much closer to Moscow, while Russian security services and even military personnel are increasingly visible across Belarus. The Belarusian force structures may increasingly look to Moscow, and not Lukashenko, for their long-term protection. Belarus may be in the news later in 2022.
Finally, I explored how a Putin escalation in Ukraine could impact China in an article for The Bulwark: What the Ukraine Crisis Looks Like from Beijing. For SupChina I’ll publish another China-Russia weekly update on Thursday, and will likely publish another article this week about the Power of Siberia. It may be another week or so before I have the chance to update the C-R Report.
The international context could be completely different by the next edition of The Report. While Putin is highly unlikely to escalate before the Olympic Opening Ceremony and his bilateral summit with Xi, some sort of escalation could take place soon after those events but before the Olympics conclude on Feb 20th. In fact, Beijing might not mind if Putin escalates during the Olympics, as that could deflect attention away from Beijing’s ongoing cultural genocide in Xinjiang, censorship of athletes, ubiquitous electronic surveillance, etc. Putin is more likely to escalate than not, and if he does he will probably escalate within the next month. Hold fast.
Table of Contents:
Belarus
Russia-India-China (RIC)
Energy
Central Asia
Weirdness at the People’s Daily
1) Belarus
习近平指出，建交30年来，中白关系砥砺前行，两国传统友好历久弥坚。在我们共同引领下，中白先后建立全面战略伙伴关系和相互信任、合作共赢的全面战略伙伴关系。双方政治互信牢不可破，各领域合作成果丰硕，在涉及彼此核心利益问题上相互坚定支持，在国际和地区事务中密切有效协作。新冠肺炎疫情发生后，两国守望相助、携手应对，彰显风雨同舟的兄弟情谊。
Xi Jinping pointed out that since the establishment of diplomatic relations 30 years ago, China-Belarus relations have forged ahead, and the traditional friendship between the two countries has become stronger as time goes by. Under our joint leadership, [bolded by The Report] China and Belarus have successively established a comprehensive strategic partnership and a comprehensive strategic partnership featuring mutual trust and win-win cooperation. The two sides enjoy unbreakable political mutual trust, fruitful cooperation in various fields, firm support for each other on issues concerning each other's core interests, and close and effective coordination in international and regional affairs. After the outbreak of COVID-19, the two countries have watched and helped each other and responded together, demonstrating the brotherhood of standing together through thick and thin.
Comment: More personal support for Luka in this call than the article on the 11th, see below. Belarus-related content is still posted on the Moscow embassy’s website, however.
Chinese President Xi Jinping said Monday that China is ready to work with Belarus to take the 30th anniversary of their diplomatic ties as a new starting point to further promote bilateral relations. In a phone conversation with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Xi called for joint efforts to enhance political mutual trust, deepen mutually beneficial cooperation, and push for new results in the China-Belarus comprehensive strategic partnership.
Saying he is glad to talk on the phone with Lukashenko at the beginning of the new year, Xi pointed out that the past year was of great significance to both China and Belarus. He added that he stands ready to maintain close communication with Lukashenko through various means to push forward the China-Belarus relationship.
Comment: No mention of Lukashenko’s leadership or personal commitment to the strongman.
Absorption of Belarus by Russia won’t happen, Lukashenko says – TASS
Russia is Belarus’ main partner and it has no intention of absorbing the republic, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said during his address to the Belarusian people and parliament on Friday…
He reiterated that at recent talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, journalists asked about the essence of the integration of both countries. According to Lukashenko, Putin’s response was that Russia together with Belarus has to create a potent foundation of economic integration, build the base for future relations. "This is their understanding and we shouldn’t reproach Russia [by thinking] that it wants to absorb Belarus. There are no objectives like that," he stated. "This will never happen and the Russian leadership does not aim to do so," the Belarusian president stressed.
We have strengthened the legal mechanisms for protecting sovereignty and the constitutional order, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said as he delivered the Address to the Belarusian people and the National Assembly in Minsk on 28 January, BelTA has learned.
Lukashenko: Amendments to the Constitution meet deep needs of the society – Belta
The amendments and addenda the updated Constitution stipulates meet deep needs of the society. Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko made the statement in his address to the nation and the parliament on 28 January, BelTA has learned.
Lukashenko calls to create task force to protect border with Ukraine – TASS
Belarus is not seeking to escalate the situation with its Union Resolve 2022 joint drills with Russia and is demonstrating its readiness and ability to respond to potential threats, the Belarusian leader stressed.
Belarus’ Lukashenko warns West against attacking Union State – TASS
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko warned the West against attacking the Union State. "We do not want war. Neither us, nor the Russians.”
Comment: Interesting that Lukashenko is still trying to differentiate Russians and Belarussians. It’s not clear how long he will be able to maintain that posture.
Russia-India-China (RIC)
Philippines to buy India's BrahMos supersonic missile – RFA – Jan 14th
The Philippines has agreed to buy a U.S. $375-million package of BrahMos supersonic anti-ship missiles from India, tapping China’s main strategic rival in Asia to shore up its defenses in the disputed South China Sea…
The Coastal Defense Regiment of the Philippine Marines is the unit that will use the land-based variant of the BrahMos PJ-10 missile, produced through a joint venture between India and Russia. The name BrahMos comes from fusing the names of the Brahmaputra and Moscow rivers in India and Russia, respectively…
Last month, Manila signed on to acquire two new corvettes from South Korean maker Hyundai Heavy Industries for $554 million. Like the earlier corvette and frigates, these will have anti-ship, anti-submarine and anti-air warfare capabilities.
India test-launches improved BrahMos shipborne supersonic cruise missile – Jan 11th
India test-launched an improved version of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile developed for the country’s Navy, India’s Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) announced on its Twitter on Tuesday. "Advanced sea to sea variant of BrahMos Supersonic Cruise missile was tested from INS Visakhapatnam today. Missile hit the designated target ship precisely," the DRDO said.
Comment: Interesting chronology of the TASS article about the test, followed by a sale. Presumably the Russians/TASS knew that India would sell the missile to the Philippines.
But one tangible drawback or hitch, with regard to exporting BrahMos that is series built at a ‘dedicated’ facility in Hyderabad, is its dependence on critical Russian components: the missile systems ramjet engine and radar seekers, both of which are provided by NPOM and hence technically liable to sanctions under CAATSA. Industry officials told The Wire that Russia supplies around 65% of the components for the 3.9 tonne BrahMos, and that both sides had only recently resolved longstanding issues over the missile systems intellectual property rights, rendering it eligible for export. But neither side seems apparently to have factored in CAATSA.
… In December 2019, Indian and Philippine officials had determined that Manila would procure two BrahMos batteries or six mobile autonomous launchers, with two or three missile tubes each. At the time, both sides had planned on concluding the deal in 2020, but this was delayed due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Comment: A complicated situation for everyone, although it seems like Washington is very happy with the sale.
Energy
China's Consumers Risk FOMO as Electric Cars' Popularity Soars – Bloomberg
Strap in for a blockbuster 2022 in the world’s biggest vehicle market
Comment: Vehicle electrification will significantly limit (but hardly eliminate) China’s reliance on oil imports, including from Russia
The new plant, due to begin operation next year with 500MW of capacity, will be the first in the country to use Western electrolyser technology
Comment: If you’re a new subscriber, Green Hydrogen – and hydrogen electrolysers – are potentially a critical element in Sino-Russian relations. Green Hydrogen could theoretically replace eliminate all of Russia’s hydrocarbon exports to China, although the technology is still in its infancy.
Novatek finalises more deals for Arctic LNG 2 – Argus Media
Novatek Gas and Power Asia, the trading arm of Russia's Novatek, has finalised two separate long-term agreements to supply Chinese firms with LNG from the planned 19.8mn t/yr Arctic LNG 2 facility.
2021: China's new energy passenger car sales up 170% - CGTN
China's new energy passenger car sales last year jumped by 169.1 percent compared to 2020, reaching a total number of 2.99 million units sold, industry data showed on Tuesday.
Central Asia
Kazakhstan’s Tokayev taking ax to Nazarbayev legacy – Eurasianet
Kazakhstan’s president took a major swipe on January 11 at the legacy of his predecessor and mentor, the former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, while delivering a speech in which he promised to implement root-and-branch changes to how the country is run. While stopping short of criticizing Nazarbayev directly, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev made it clear that he saw a history of maladministration, by economic and security officials alike, as being behind unrest last week that claimed dozens of lives.
Russia not involved in discussions about possible coup attempt in Uzbekistan, says Kremlin – TASS
Russia is not engaged in conversations about a possible coup attempt in Uzbekistan following the failed insurrection in Kazakhstan, which was mentioned as a potential risk by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday.
"It is more like a topic for a conversation between Minsk and Tashkent, in this regard, we aren’t involved in such conversations," he said in response to a question.
Lukashenko said at an extraordinary session of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Collective Security Council on January 10 that if no lessons were learned from the recent events in Kazakhstan, similar developments might take place again, first and foremost, in Uzbekistan. According to the Belarusian president, the information that he has makes it clear that terrorists have already set their sights on Uzbekistan.
Pullout of CSTO troops from Kazakhstan to begin in two days — Tokayev – TASS
He noted that coup attempts in Kazakhstan have failed. "The attempts of a state coup, attempts on the country’s territorial integrity have failed. We’ve defended Almaty and other regional centers together, as a single nation. They will be restored as soon as possible," the head of state said. The Kazakh leader noted that not all law enforcement agencies stayed loyal to their duty.
Uzbekistan ends gas exports to China, abandons price increases at home – Eurasianet
Uzbekistan’s government has halted natural gas exports and appears to be quietly ignoring its recent pledge to increase fuel prices at the start of the year. The change comes after neighboring Kazakhstan saw violent unrest last week that began with protests over a surge in prices for liquified petroleum gas, or LPG, which is often used to fuel cars. Lack of gas in Uzbekistan has over several years generated significant public discontent, although those frustrations have never boiled over into street protests. "Gas exports have been completely stopped, and all gas volumes are being directed to domestic consumers within the county," an Energy Ministry representative told Interfax news agency.
Putin Is Shoring Up the Global Alliance of Autocrats – Hal Brands of AEI for Bloomberg
Autocrats in one country are projecting power beyond their borders to prevent the overthrow of autocrats in another. An age of democracy promotion is giving way to an age of autocracy protection, with Central Asia a proving ground for this dark form of solidarity.
Weirdness at The People’s Daily
Commentary: Havana Syndrome just another episode in U.S. lying saga – People’s Daily
The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has eaten humble pie, admitting recently that most cases of the mysterious ailment known as the "Havana Syndrome" may have been caused by environmental factors, undiagnosed medical conditions or stress…
The Havana syndrome has become the latest episode of the U.S. centuries-old lying saga. As former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo boasted, "I was the CIA director, we lied, we cheated, we stole. We had entire training courses. It reminds you of the glory of the American experiment."
…
He who excuses himself accuses himself. When Washington groundlessly accused China's Belt and Road Initiative of creating a debt trap for partner countries, it was itself the biggest de-facto producer of international debt problems. When it slandered Beijing as a threat to global digital security, it was in fact a reckless seeker of digital hegemony with an appalling record of eavesdropping. And ironically, with its genocidal past and human rights atrocities, this cold-blooded killer of Native Americans is telling a lie of "genocide" in Xinjiang. But truth will ultimately prevail. The Havana Syndrome story is yet another farce of self-serving Washington and another old trick in its playbook full of lies. If Washington continues to act recklessly without genuine self-reflection, it is in for a credit bust. [Comment: bolded by The Report. Is this a translation error?]
Comment: A wild, and wild-eyed, article that closes with a potential double meaning?
No intention of putting US or NATO troops in Ukraine: Biden – People’s Daily
"We have no intention of putting American forces or NATO forces in Ukraine," Biden told reporters when he was at a store in Washington buying gifts for his wife and grandson. "But I said there are going to be serious economic consequences if (Russian President Vladimir Putin) moves" Russian troops into Ukraine. Biden's remarks came one day after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin placed some 8,500 US troops to be on "heightened preparedness to deploy" to Europe, citing "Russia's continuing provocations along its border with Ukraine." Biden told reporters that the ready-to-deploy action is a "NATO operation" rather than "a sole US operation," and that it is a manifestation of Washington's commitment to NATO's Article VI collective defense obligation.
Comment: Article VI? What? This is probably a sloppy typo from the PD: NATO’s Article V concerns collective defense, whereas Article VI specifies the locations where collective defense applies.
v/r,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.
The substance of the People’s Daily Havana Syndrome story is irrefutable: there's a 99% change that it's just another episode in the U.S. lying saga.