German politicians targeted in mass data attack – BBC
“Contacts, private chats and financial details were put out on Twitter that belong to figures from every political party except the far-right AfD. Data from celebrities and journalists were also leaked…
It is unclear who was behind the attack, which emerged on Twitter in the style of an advent calendar last month…
Immediate suspicion fell on right-wing groups in Germany as well as Russia. German cyber-security analyst Sven Herpig said Russia was a suspect, first because of the method used but also because Germany was facing four state elections in 2019 as well as elections to the European Parliament.”
Hackers Leak Details of German Lawmakers, Except Those on Far Right - NYT
German mass data attack 'known for weeks' by cyber officials - BBC
German cyber defense agency defends handling of data breach – Reuters
Comment: The Kremlin has denied any involvement; Russian state media doesn’t appear to have responded to the attack.
So whodunit? Some observers have suggested that German domestic actors leaked the information. That seems highly unlikely: the hacking campaign’s scale would have required substantial resources. And why would a domestic actor with a political axe to grind leak the information outside of the German/European electoral calendar?
It’s possible that criminal actors sought to obtain and monetize damaging, non-public information. But why would a criminal organization spend valuable time and money hacking high-risk, low-reward targets? Then publicly release that information, which limits leverage over victims while immediately drawing law enforcement attention?
It’s highly likely that the hack was undertaken by Russian and/or Chinese security services (or by criminal organizations acting semi-deniably on behalf of Russian and/or Chinese security services).
The leaks are likely meant to intimidate the German/European body politic at large as well as individual politicians and public figures. The hackers published some non-public but mostly anodyne information; more interesting was what information the hackers did NOT publish. The hackers may be signaling to certain German/European public figures that they possess additional compromising information (компромат or敲诈勒索, if you like) but will not release it if certain conditions are met.
New Year, New Merkel?
Putin (and potentially the PRC) are observing Western responses to the hacks and will likely calibrate future electoral interference campaigns accordingly. A lot depends on how German Chancellor Angela Merkel responds to the attack. In her New Year address Merkel said Germany would “take on more responsibility.” Time will tell.
It may not be long before Merkel and Europe are tested again. Remember, European Parliamentary elections will take place on May 23rd.
It’s difficult to keep track of all the elections Putin has already interfered in. A non-comprehensive list includes: Ukraine; Georgia; UK (Brexit); the US; France; Germany; Spain (Catalonia); Mexico; and others.
The PRC has also appeared increasingly willing to interfere in elections and politics in Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand, Cambodia, and other places.
Putin conducted small-scale, low-risk electoral interference campaigns in Ukraine, Georgia, and elsewhere before significantly escalating in the 2016 US Presidential election. The PRC has also conducted electoral interference campaigns that remain small-scale, at least for now.
China - Russia
Putin’s busy schedule for 2019 – TASS
“Major international forums to discuss global international issues, which are held in Russia, are popular. The key of them is the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, attended by the Russian president and his high-ranking guests, is due on June 6-8, 2019. Earlier, Putin offered Chinese President Xi Jinping to pay his visit to Russia during the forum and become its key guest the next year. The Chinese leader accepted the invitation….
No doubt, Russian-Chinese active privileged cooperation will continue in 2019. According to tradition, the leaders pay visits to each other in turns every year. In 2018, Putin visited China, and therefore in 2019 Xi Jinping will come to Russia. The two leaders will have many chances to meet at various summits. The Russian president is expected to become a key guest and participant of the second international Belt and Road Forum, in April 2019 in Beijing….
The next talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be held in 2019 in Russia. Putin thanked the Indian premier for hospitality during his New Delhi visit in 2018 and invited him to visit Russia to take part in the 20th annual summit in 2019. Modi accepted the invitation, the leaders said in a joint statement. Putin is expected to pay a visit to South Korea next year and the preparations have been launched, Federation Council (upper house) Speaker Valentina Matviyenko said. The Russian president also accepted an invitation to pay an official visit to Vietnam, but no date has been announced so far.”
Comment: “Expected to become a key guest.”
Note “its key guest” vs “a key guest.” And the article ‘a’ is (probably) conscious and intentional: the Russian language doesn’t contain articles.
In case you missed it from The Report’s G20 Special Brief, General Secretary Xi invited Putin to attend the BBRI summit as a “participant” while Putin invited Xi to attend the SPIEF as “the key guest.”
Tough South China Sea talks ahead as Vietnam seeks to curb China's actions – Reuters
Comment: The PRC is seeking to 1) block foreign oil companies by limiting joint development deals to China and SE Asia and 2) ban military drills with “outside powers” unless “all signatories” (i.e. China) agree. Many Russians, particularly Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, won’t be pleased.
“Gazprom expects to begin gas exports to China at a level of around 5 Bcm/year in the first year of operations through the Power of Siberia. In the second year of operations -- 2021 -- supplies are expected to ramp up to 10 Bcm before then ramping up to capacity in 2022-23. Russia also has plans to send another 30 Bcm/year via a western route to China in the future, with talks expected to resume at the highest level in the near future. It also envisages another eastern route.”
“Europe remains a core market for Gazprom. But Russia has embarked on a course of gas exports diversification – both geographically and in terms of mode of transportation – betting on LNG. The gas contract between Russia and China signed in 2014 is based on the so-called Eastern route, with supply coming from the gas fields in Eastern Siberia which do not have a pipeline link with Russia’s gas network in the European part of the country. But negotiations on another route for gas supplies to China, the so-called Western route, also known as the Altai pipeline, have been continuing. For this route, the resource base for the supplies is the same as for Europe, specifically the gas fields in NPT. A possible new gas contract between Russia and China may become an important game-changer, starting a competition between Europe and China for scarce incremental Russian supplies. [emphasis from The Report]”
Comment: On the other hand, Europe could turn to alternative natural gas suppliers in Algeria and Libya, as well as intra-European shale gas. Not to mention renewable energy… Also not clear if Western countries would sanction a Power of Siberia 2 project.
Comment: China-Russia relevant material starts in section 5.
“Turning next to Russia, it is likely that the eastern route (Power of Siberia 1) will be the only route in service in 2020. Although capacity will ultimately increase to 38 bcm/y, reports suggest that it will take several years for a plateau to be reached due to construction of compressor stations along the pipeline. Although this period may be shortened by rapid growth in natural gas consumption in China, this is relatively unlikely as the pipeline will not enter service until December 2019. In effect, therefore, 2020 will be its first year of commercial operation.”
Q: This year, the US started and escalated trade frictions with China, bringing uncertainties and instability to China-US relations. What’s your opinion on current China-US ties?
[Chinese Foreign Minister] Wang Yi: 2019 marks the 40th anniversary of China-US diplomatic relations. The ancient Chinese philosopher Confucius said, “When reaching forty, one should no longer have any doubts.” The experience and lessons over the past 40 years are enough to prove that for China and the US, cooperation will deliver win-win results, whereas confrontation will end with a loss for both sides. In today’s world, where the interests of China and the US are interwoven in the era of in-depth development of economic globalization, both countries should eliminate all barriers, to implement the valuable consensus and be free from doubt. The one who adopts Cold War mentality will only isolate itself, and the one who uses zero-sum games will never be able to retreat without hurting itself. China will unswervingly follow the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics, stay committed to peaceful development, and conduct win-win cooperation with countries. We hope the US can be positive about China’s progress. There is no need to create rivals, and still less, to effectuate a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Q: When compared with China-US ties, the China-Russia relationship is highly stable, and has been running on a high level in recent years. What do you think of China-Russia ties?
Wang Yi: China and Russia regard each other as comprehensive strategic partners. Thanks to the high-level mutual trust and strategic guidance of the two heads of state, bilateral ties have always been as firm and stable as a rock or mountain, and are becoming a strategic force in maintaining world peace and stability. The stable China-Russia relations, which are grounded on continuously expanding common interests, never target a third party, and are never affected by third-party factors.
Comment: Foreign Minister Wang Yi commented on the US, Russia, and the DPRK.
China offers 144-hr visa-free transit in 5 more cities – People’s Daily
“The visa-free transit policy approved by the State Council, applies to people from 53 countries including Austria, Belgium, Czech, Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.”
Russia and China approved lists of exporters of dairy products – TASS
Belarus – Russia
Lukashenko says union between Belarus and Russia has been successful - TASS
"In the upcoming year, we will celebrate the 20th anniversary of signing of the Agreement on establishing the Union State. The Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation have had an uneasy path but we can now say with confidence that the union between the two peoples has been successful," Lukashenko said. He added that further hard work on observing the national interests of the two countries in the framework of the Union State, based on deep trust and respect, will give a serious impetus to developing the whole range of bilateral relations. "The will of Belarusians and Russians toward unity will, as before, serve as a solid foundation for integration, multi-faceted cooperation and formation of common new history," Lukashenko said.
Russia puts pressure on Belarus - Kamil Kłysiński, Marek Menkiszak, and Jan Strzelecki for OSW
“Another reason for Russia applying pressure on Belarus is its attempt to improve Vladimir Putin’s declining approval ratings by achieving a symbolic geopolitical success, by making Minsk more dependent on Moscow, yet it might also be aimed at devising a scenario for solving the formal problem of the final term of office of President Putin under the Constitution by taking up by Putin a post of head of the Belarus-Russia Union State, which could be taken if he decided to formally leave the post of president of Russia (which is not prejudged).”
China – Europe
“Despite a renewed interest on Beijing’s part, China’s relationship with the European Union encountered a number of setbacks in 2018, the latest being the tightening of foreign direct investments by the European Commission. In December, Europe’s strongest economy, Germany, made it even harder by establishing new rules against foreign acquisitions of German companies in technology. In the Balkans, just outside the EU, China is enjoying a different experience. A non-EU member, Serbia claims to have become one of China’s best friends in Europe….
The closeness between the two regimes appeared striking during the 10th anniversary celebration of the ruling Progressive Party of Serbia (SNS), where the Chinese Ambassador to Serbia Li Manchang was the guest of honor. More recently, Serbian leadership also consulted with the Chinese ambassador on the issue of Kosovo, which is another role that the incumbent Serbian government traditionally reserved for the Russian Embassy. This implies the growing diplomatic influence of China in Belgrade…
The Russian leadership has remained highly influential with successive Serbian governments. In this region, a light China-Russia collaboration is not impossible, as suggested by the creation of a rather opaque “council of economic cooperation with Russia and China” chaired by former President Tomislav Nikolic, an ally whom Vucic persuaded not to run for president in 2017…
In a survey conducted for BCSP in 2016-2017, Popovic asked respondents what they thought of the major powers and their influence on Serbia. China ranked second (after Germany) among “credible investors,” ahead of the United States, Russia, and the EU as a whole. The general public does not seem to have strong views on the domestic situation in China; it sees China in the Serbian context. International media reports are sparse, and Serbians seem focused on the recovery of their own country rather than geopolitics. Most perceive China as a friendly country that has come to invest in the (slowly recovering) Serbian economy.
“In Germany as well, there are concerns around the Chinese National intelligence law, as the intelligence community fears that Huawei could be asked by the Chinese government to incorporate “backdoors” into their equipment, allowing access to encrypted data for spying or sabotage purposes. Deutsche Telekom has recently decided to review its vendor plans in light of recent debates of the security of Chinese network equipment while France’s Orange has already severed ties with Huawei. Under the guidance of ANSSI (Agence Nationale de la Sécurité des Systèmes d’Information) , French security agencies have been warning ministers for over a decade about potential risks, barring Huawei from government contracts—despite very competitive offers from the Chinese manufacturer.
Yet, despite the recent uptick in the debate in Europe on Chinese 5G, many local providers are still working and testing with Chinese manufacturers, particularly Huawei. Huawei has signed MoUs with wireless providers in at least eight European countries and has tested with local providers in at least twelve EU member states. Earlier this month, Portugal’s top wireless provider Altice signed a deal with Huawei to upgrade its networks to 5G…
Unfortunately, the current debate in Europe on how to enhance “strategic autonomy” is too narrow as it focuses mainly on carving out foreign policy independence from the Trump administration. How to ensure European sovereignty in the digital age deserves more attention. This starts with boosting European R&D spending, favoring European alternatives to Huawei, better understanding the security risks of Chinese 5G, and beefing up national and EU-wide investment screening schemes. Greater transatlantic information exchange and intelligence sharing with the United States on China is also called for…
In a world marked by growing geopolitical rivalry between Washington and Beijing, American allies will increasingly face a stark choice between the two. Continuing to rely on Chinese 5G manufacturers could cause a rift in the already fragile transatlantic relationship. A split into China and non-China 5G networks could cause minor interoperability issues , but more importantly, the U.S. push for a “China-free” 5G deployment could eventually generate two politically divided spheres of technological influence. How Europe should best navigate these stormy waters must be at the core of the European strategic debate in 2019.”
Brexit supporter protests outside Downing Street in the UK (Photos) – Xinhua (Chinese language)
Comment: This Xinhua photoset is a little bizarre. The pictures shows a single protestor outside of Downing Street in London. The protestor is holding a sign (in English) that says:
“Leave Means Leave; Just HOOT We Voted Leave”
The pictures make the protestor appear isolated. Perhaps Xinhua is implying that hard-core Brexit supporters are isolated and perhaps out of touch? Beijing is likely to have little patience for Brexit’s economic dislocations, particularly amid growing signs of another recession in China and beyond.
Russia and China in South/Central Asia
Turkmenistan: In space, nobody can hear you shill – Eurasianet
“For those listening closely, there may have been some diplomatic undertones to the performance. Kerimguly sung his verses in English, which is not too surprising perhaps. But what was more notable was Berdymukhamedov assaying some grammatically creaky German lyrics. Is this a fresh confirmation of Berdymukhamedov’s rumored Germanophilia? Or is it anything to do with the inchoate rumors about repeated trips by the presidential aircraft to Germany last year, for which no explanation has been offered?…
If Russia is a place of exile for some, it is a haven for others. Azatlyk reported that it is now common to see long lines of Turkmen citizens waiting outside the Russian Embassy to apply for visas. Even the Turkmen state itself is looking for a sense of reassurance from Russia. As Azatlyk reported on December 26, military officials with the Central Military District – the division in the army that takes the lead on defense cooperation with Central Asia – have revealed that they are resuming training exercises with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.”
Turkmen President Hands Son Regional Deputy Governor's Post – RFE/RL
“In his new post, Serdar Berdymukhammedov will retain the seat he has held in the rubber-stamp parliament since 2016, but step aside as deputy foreign minister. His appointment to that post in March 2018 was seen as a sign that he was being groomed as a presidential successor.”
Kapitan's Last Stand? Tajik Army Sticks With Russian Terms For Now – RFE/RL
Turkmenistan Enacts Strict Law On Alcohol Sales – RFE/RL
Comment: because of the economic crisis (and alcohol’s ability to inflame situations), growing religiosity in Turkmenistan, or something else?
China
Unification Plan From China Finds Few Takers in Taiwan – NYT
Xi orders armed forces to enhance combat readiness – The People’s Daily
“"The world is facing a period of major changes never seen in a century, and China is still in an important period of strategic opportunity for development," [General Secretary Xi] said, warning that various risks and challenges were on the rise.”
The People China ‘Disappeared’ in 2018 – Yanan Wang for The Diplomat
China’s floating population starts to shrink – The People’s Daily
“A report by the National Health Commission indicates that every percentage point increase in the proportion of urban floating population will create a 1-2.3 percent growth in GDP in the next 5 to 10 years. Population mobility is therefore connected to capital accumulation in urban areas.
The longing for a stable life, discouraging salaries, and deteriorating health conditions are the primary reasons that people choose to move back home, said Li Jianmin, a professor at the Institute of Population and Development, Nankai University.
Li said China’s floating population more commonly work in metropolitan areas rather than small and medium-sized cities, resulting in a low rate of contribution from the latter to national economic growth, which in turn affects their salaries and employment opportunities.
Big cities in eastern China create more demographic dividends, but expensive rents, problems purchasing property, education, college entrance exams, and social insurance policies don't take the concerns of migrant workers into consideration, forcing these people to go back home, which weakens demographic dividends, a scholar said.
Zhai Zhenwu, a demographer and president of the School of Sociology and Population Studies under Renmin University, believes that demographic benefits could be maintained.”
Comment: Interesting. Implicit criticism of the hukou policy?
China Targets Prominent Uighur Intellectuals to Erase an Ethnic Identity – New York Times
Comment: Will the CCP be able to successfully frame the anti-Uighur campaign as an effort to erase ethnic identity… not religious identity?
China Discourse Report 2018 – Qian Gang for China Media Project
Ryan Browne of CNN on Acting Secretary of Defense Pat Shanahan
“A US defense official says Acting Secretary of Defense Pat Shanahan told senior leaders at the Defense Department today to “remember China, China, China.””
Russia
After the Crimean Consensus – Aaron Schwartzbaum of Bear Market Brief for The American Interest
That’s all for this week, folks. Thank you for reading. Best wishes to those celebrating Orthodox New Year.
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Until next week,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan weekly newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.