Huawei banned from German 5G, maybe; Abe and Putin wrangle over islands; Lukashenko invited to the 2nd BRI Forum
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Quick hits: Germany is considering banning Huawei from its 5G networks; Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will meet with Putin this week over the Northern Islands/Kurils; and General Secretary Xi invited Belarussian President Lukashenko to attend the 2nd BRI Forum.
Don’t have much commentary this week. The Abe-Putin meeting will be interesting: it’ll be surprising (but not shocking) if the two sides reach some understanding on the Northern Islands issue.
Belarus is seeking political/economic support from China (and the US) amid its dispute with Russia over oil and gas subsidies. For new readers: Putin may be seeking to annex Belarus. Annexation scares happen every few years, leading many Western experts on Russia to believe Belarus will once again muddle through an annexation crisis. But this time may be different).
Despite Belarus’s invitation to the BRI, there was no follow-up, to my knowledge, on the “big new economic project” Belarussian state media touted last week. Beijing knows it has both political and economic leverage over Minsk and that time is on its side. Beijing will likely hold out for a better deal.
If Lukashenko grows frustrated by the PRC’s stalling and alarmed by Putin’s threats of annexation he might turn to the West, which would make the situation much, much more complicated.
China – Russia
China, Russia to strengthen cooperation in economic and social areas – Xinhua
“China's top political advisor Wang Yang on Thursday called for enhanced cooperation between China and Russia in economic and social areas. Wang, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), China's top advisory body, made the remarks while meeting with Valerii Fadeev, chairman of the Russian Public Council.”
Russia appeals to Japan to recognize the outcome of World War II – People’s Daily [Chinese language]
“Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a New Year's press conference on the 16th, criticizing the Japanese side for demanding that Russia return the South Kuril Islands to violate the UN Charter and calling on Japan to recognize the outcome of the Second World War, that is, the sovereignty of the South Kuril Islands is owned by Russia.”
Comment: Mentioning “Japan” and “World War II” is like catnip for the CCP, which is why Lavrov included it in his remarks and why the People’s Daily picked it up. Progress on the Northern Island/Kurils issue is unlikely in the medium-term, although both Japan and Russia will maintain the pretense of serious negotiations: both sides want to maintain the option of balancing against the PRC, but Russia doesn’t want to commit to that action unless absolutely necessary.
“According to comprehensive reports, Russia and the United States held consultations on the "Guidelines on the Treaty" in Geneva on the 15th. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said after the meeting that the Russian side expressed its willingness to improve the transparency of the 9М729 missile issue during the talks, and the US side should respond to Russia's concerns.”
China ready to cooperate with Russia in operating its future orbital station – TASS
“China is ready to cooperate with Russia in operating its yet-to-be created orbital station and to let some other countries participate in similar projects, the secretary-general of the China National Space Administration, Li Guoping, told a news conference on Monday.
"Russia is one of China’s main partners in space cooperation," he said adding that the two countries held annual meetings devoted to cooperation in space exploration. Both countries, he said, were pushing ahead with joint aerospace projects in accordance with China’s program for 2018-2022.”
Russian, Chinese scientists get grant for project of discovering water on Moon – TASS
Comment: Occurs a week after a TASS article noted that Russia would “retake the driver’s seat in space exploration”
Comment: Russia is limiting grain exports, which could make domestic consumers happier… but upset China.
How the next nuclear arms race will be different from the last one – Benjamin Zala
“The modernization efforts generating the most concern are those of the three great powers: the United States, Russia, and China. With the relative decline of US global power, China’s economic and now military rise, and the reemergence of an assertive Russia, the triangular strategic relationship between these three will have an enormous effect on global peace and security. But South Asian regional powers India and Pakistan are also part of the modernization trend, as is the Middle East’s only nuclear-armed state, Israel. Even Britain and France are modernizing their nuclear arsenals in modest ways.”
China-Russia-Belarus
China President Xi Jinping has invited Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko to take part in the second international high-level Belt and Road Forum. The personal invitation was handed over by Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of China to Belarus Cui Qiming as he met with Belarusian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrei Dapkiunas on 16 January, BelTA has learned…
The Chinese ambassador expressed gratitude for the consistent support offered by the Belarusian head of state, the government, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the One China policy. The deputy minister of foreign affairs confirmed that Belarus' support for China's approach to Taiwan-related matters is principled and is based on the recognition of the objective righteousness of this approach and its concordance with fundamental interests of the Chinese nation.”
Comment: Wonder if/when we’ll hear more about the “big new economic project” Belarussian state media touted last week.
Minsk, Moscow will settle oil and gas dispute, Belarusian envoy says – TASS
“The Belarusian leadership is sure that Moscow and Minsk will overcome their current oil and gas dispute, Belarusian Ambassador to Russia Vladimir Semashko told TASS. "Unfortunately, there is a bad practice that at the end of the year we sometimes have oil and gas issues, and tensions mount due to this," Semashko said. "But history shows that we have been always able to settle them."”
Comment: One would have more confidence in this assertion if Belarus wasn’t also simultaneously demanding more attention from both China and the US…
Medvedev suggests Minsk value Moscow’s support
“Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev thinks that Minsk should value the support it receives from Moscow. "In fact, we are helping them [Belarus], by taking money from our economy. They should value that when reflecting on (our) allied relationship," he said at a meeting with his deputies. According to Medvedev, Russia continues to provide credit support to Belarus, which already surpasses $6.5 bln…
The tax maneuver in the oil sector implies a reduction of crude export duties and simultaneously raising the mineral extraction tax. The tax maneuver is aimed at reducing the dependence of Russia’s budget on export duties, which drop following global oil price movements.
Currently, Minsk wants to compel Russia to provide compensation for the tax maneuver in the oil sector that will push the oil price for Belarusian refineries up. Deputy Prime Minister Igor Lyashenko said earlier that the losses of two Belarusian oil refining plants and the country’s budget from Russia’s tax maneuver would total $383 mln with the oil price at $70 per barrel in 2019. According to Lyashenko, Minsk expected to receive $310-315 mln from Russia. His Russian counterpart Anton Siluanov said though that the Kremlin had not given any relevant pledges to its ally.”
Comment: “Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev”… He is usually referred to as “Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev” in other TASS publications. Probably sloppy editing…
Also note that the article omits which country Deputy Prime Minister Igor Lyashenko is from, although it does state Suluanov is his “Russian counterpart.”
Sidebar: Medvedev’s health seems to have improved.
“Minsk and Washington are negotiating a bilateral increase in diplomatic presence, including at the level of ambassadors, Belarusian Minister of Foreign Affairs Vladimir Makei told the media on 14 January, BelTA has learned.”
From Bear Market Brief January 16th:
After the Ukrainian Orthodox Church became independent, some are discussing a similar scenario for Belarus, especially given recent tensions in relations with Minsk. The Russian Orthodox Church is due to change Belarus’ Patriarchal Exarch in May 2019 in order to expand its influence.
Belarus, China expected to step up cooperation in education – Belta [Belarussian state media]
China – Europe
German security is important for 5G network: Interior Ministry – Reuters
“Asked whether Berlin was mulling banning China’s Huawei Technologies from building its 5G network, the spokesman said the government was not examining whether one company should be excluded from building the network, but was checking individual components.”
Comment: Doesn’t seem like Huawei has been formally excluded, yet.
Germany looks to ban Huawei from 5G – FT
Comment: University of Oxford will also stop accepting research funds and donations from Huawei.
Germany’s China Problem – Anna Sauerbrey for New York Times
Celebrations for Chinese Spring Festival kick off in Ukraine – Xinhua
“Chinese students perform on stage in Kiev, Ukraine, Jan. 18, 2019. Celebrations for China's upcoming Spring Festival kicked off in Ukraine with a concert staged by Chinese and Ukrainian students on Friday, providing attendees a vivid glimpse of the Asian country's rich culture and traditions.”
Comment: Note the use of Kiev instead of Kyiv.
China can provide broad business opportunities for Finland: premier – People’s Daily
“China stands ready to further cooperate with Finland on cargo, service and technology, jointly address climate change and work on green development and clean technology, said Li. He said China firmly supports the European integration process and has always viewed the European Union (EU) as an important force to maintain world stability and promote free trade.
He expressed the hope that Finland can contribute to China-EU relations and EU unity and prosperity as the Nordic country will assume the rotating EU presidency in the second half of this year.”
China, Germany to deepen financial cooperation – People’s Daily
“The two sides pledged to jointly uphold multilateralism and free trade rules, and firmly support the rule-based and multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization (WTO) as the core, said the press release. The two sides agreed to strengthen cooperation under multilateral frameworks such as the Group of 20 (G20) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and support the alignment of China's Belt and Road Initiative with the Eurasian connectivity strategy and European infrastructure planning.”
China-Russia-Japan
Abe ready for peace treaty with Russia if it guarantees transference of Shikotan – TASS
“Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has got down to address the issue of a peace treaty to be signed with Russia in case of Russia’s providing guarantees of handing over some of the South Kuril Islands, namely Shikotan and a number of uninhibited small islands Japan calls Habomai, Kyodo said on Sunday citing government sources.”
Putin, Abe to hold talks January 22, says Kremlin – TASS
“In 1960, in retaliation for the conclusion of the Japanese-US security treaty the Soviet Union annulled its pledge to hand over the islands to Japan. In the memorandum of January 27, 1960 the Soviet government said that Japan would have the islands only on the condition of the pullout of all foreign troops from its territory.”
Comment: This is the closing paragraph to the TASS article. Several other articles’ closing paragraph are nearly identical.
US’ role in Russia-Japan dialogue is unclear, says Russian diplomat – TASS
“The United States’ role in the bilateral dialogue between Russia and Japan is not clear as this dialogue has never involved that country, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Sunday, adding that Japan’s statements that these talks are to help contain China look "very strange."
Russia-Japan peace treaty talks not to affect residents of Kuril Islands — Kremlin - TASS
“"The fact that the two nations have no peace treaty is absurd, it puts constraints on the development of our bilateral relations. That’s why it has to be signed. But the question of how it will be done will be made as a result of hard work. But this work must result in a solution that will in no way affect the interests of our population," the Kremlin spokesman said.
Earlier, a spokesman for the Japanese Foreign Ministry told TASS that the Japanese government believes that Moscow and Tokyo intend to hold serious negotiations on a peace treaty and bring this issue to a close. The talks in the Russian capital made it possible to prepare the upcoming visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Moscow and a new bilateral summit due on January 22, the diplomat said.”
China and Russia in Central and South Asia
Is Turkmenistan Being Pulled Into Russia's Orbit? – Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL
“At the start of 2016, China was reportedly paying $185 per 1,000 cubic meters, but the China National Petroleum Corp sent a delegation to Turkmenistan in February 2017 to negotiate a lower price. The results of those talks were never made public, but it seems unlikely Turkmenistan could reject the Chinese request for lower gas prices.
The result of lower gas prices and fewer customers has been an economic freefall in Turkmenistan. Never since the country became independent in late 1991 has the economic situation in Turkmenistan been as bad as it is right now. People wait in line for flour, bread, and other basic goods, all of which are rationed and often require personal-identification documents to purchase….
The Kremlin didn't seem to believe Turkmen authorities' tales of tranquility along the Afghan frontier, which Russian officials with increasing frequency referred to as the "CIS border" with Afghanistan.
On June 9, 2016, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made an unannounced visit to Turkmenistan. Turkmen media was general in its reporting of Shoigu's visit, but Russian media was more to the point: Shoigu was in Ashgabat to "offer" Russia's help in strengthening Turkmenistan's military capabilities, including weapons sales and training…
Russia has developed several large fields since then and added thousands of kilometers of gas pipelines. Russia and Gazprom did need Turkmen gas in the first decade of this century, but that is arguably no longer true. So why buy any? To prop up Turkmenistan's cash-strapped government? To dissuade Turkmenistan from moving forward with the Trans-Caspian Pipeline project to ship gas to Europe where Russia already sells its gas and wants to sell more?”
Lines, price rises and expensive booze – the cost of happiness in Turkmenistan – Eurasianet
Turkmenistan: Foal play is suspected – Turkmenistan Bulletin for Eurasianet
“And the Turkmen government is showing signs it wants to be ready for an extreme-case scenario. The Chronicles of Turkmenistan, a Vienna-based new website, reported that the Defense Ministry has ordered all males employed by the state to verify their military registration. Current Defense Minister Begench Gungogdiyev was appointed to the post in June, following a stint as head of the border guard service. In another curious and unexplained security-related incident, officials in Uzbekistan on January 12 reportedly revealed that they had discovered an explosive device on a freight train arriving from Turkmenistan.”
China
First sprout grown on the Moon's surface by China's Chang'e-4 – People’s Daily
“Within the scope of the law, anyone could express his or her views anywhere anytime. In China, anyone could travel freely and safely at any time to anywhere.”
Comment: Woof. There’s so much to pick at in this essay. “Anyone could travel freely and safely at any time to anywhere.” That does not seem to comport with facts on the ground in Xinjiang.
There needs to be an essay that causes post-material Western elites to better understand Maslow’s hierarchy of needs as it applies to economic and political development. This is not that essay.
Nearly 3 billion trips forecast for holiday travel rush – People’s Daily
“To help Taiwan residents visit the mainland during the holiday, 1,126 extra flights have been approved across the Taiwan Straits between Tuesday and Feb 19.”
Xi urges new, greater progress in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development – People’s Daily
“Xi made six demands to promote the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Efforts should be made to relocate the non-capital functions of Beijing in an active, proper and orderly manner, he said. He stressed high-quality and high-standard planning and development of the Xiongan New Area and called for building a number of major infrastructure projects in transportation, water conservancy and public services in the new area. The relocation of Beijing's municipal organs should be taken as an opportunity to pursue high-quality planning and construction of the sub-center, Xi said, adding that the spatial layout and economic structure of Beijing should be optimized.”
Comment: The 京津冀 (Jing-Jin-Ji) megapolis would be the largest city in the world. Wonder if the megapolis has geopolitical or economic motivations. Maybe a little bit of both.
Russia
Roscosmos suggests new group of Earth remote sensing satellites "Sovereign's Eye" – TASS
“"For instance, for the Russian Emergencies Ministry, we will be able to deploy firefighting aircraft to an area of 25 sq m. We will also present the project to argicultural workers. This will include using drones in agriculture and the possibility of monitoring arable land," [Roscosmos head Dmitry] Rogozin noted. The "Sovereign's Eye" system will also help monitor changes in infrastructure facilities, the Roscosmos head noted. "This will be very helpful for the authorities. All buildings and changes in infrastructure facilities are seen from space," he said.”
Russia believes including Kiev in German offer to study Kerch Strait incident unrealistic – TASS
“Russia does not think Ukraine’s involvement in any format on the Kerch Strait is possible, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters at a news conference following talks with his German counterpart Heiko Maas.”
All Su-34 flights suspended in Russia following accident in Far East — TASS
“Flights of the Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bombers have been suspended throughout Russia following an accident in the Far East, a source in the Russian Defense Ministry told TASS on Monday. "Flights of the Su-34 bombers have been suspended throughout the country," he said. Earlier reports said that two Su-34 fighter-bombers had collided in mid-air over the Strait of Tatary in Russia’s Khabarovsk Region. The two aircraft disappeared from radar and are believed to have collided.”
Comment: According to Defense Industry Daily’s history of the Su-34: ““The Su-34 is meant to deliver a sufficiently large ordnance load to a predetermined area, hit the target accurately and take evasive action against pursuing enemy planes.” Other reports have gone further, stating that the plane is also meant to be able to handle enemy fighters in aerial combat. Given its base platform characteristics, it would likely match up well in the air against many of America’s “teen series” aircraft.”
That’s all for this week’s edition of The Report, folks. Thanks for reading.
Until next time,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan weekly newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.