Kazakhstan unrest crushed; Ukraine talks this week
Protests shock Kazakhstan but dissipate rapidly
Russian-led troops from the Collective Security Treaty Organization appear to have crushed a potential rebellion and an intra-elite power struggle in Kazakhstan this week. Both Russia and China have clearly signaled their support for Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s faction, while the Nazarbayev faction may become an irrelevant political entity by the end of the week. While the Kazakhstan crisis is not over, the deployment of several thousand CSTO troops (and, more importantly, the implied political will to escalate force, if necessary) appear to have established a new equilibrium.
How long will CSTO forces remain in-country? Bakhti Nishanov of the CSCE noted that Tokayev’s spokesperson said CSTO troops will leave after one week; the head of the CSTO in Kazakhstan stated they will remain for the “complete stabilization of the situation.” CSTO troops will almost surely remain beyond one week - was Tokayev signaling to Beijing that he will not be utterly reliant on Moscow?
While it’s far too soon to determine the long-term impacts of the Kazakhstan protests on Russian-Sino relations, I suggested some tentative conclusions in an analysis for SupChina on Friday:
Putin’s rapid establishment of a fait accompli, the PRC’s limited regional interests, Moscow and Beijing’s shared preference for compliant authoritarians in the region, and, most importantly, the salience of the overall bilateral relationship suggest that neither Putin nor the CCP has an appetite for confronting one another in a secondary or even tertiary theater. Beijing will watch the crisis warily but will continue to follow Moscow’s lead, provided that its energy and security interests are not threatened. The current Kazakhstan crisis is unlikely to give rise to significant near-term Sino-Russian tensions.
Western and Russian officials will meet this week in high-stakes talks concerning Ukraine. It appears likely that the unrest in Kazakhstan will have only minor impacts on Putin’s timetable vis-à-vis Ukraine. My base case scenario is that Putin will undertake some serious escalation in Ukraine, but only after the Olympics opening ceremony (when Putin and Xi are supposed to meet in Beijing) and Russia’s upcoming Omicron hospitalization wave. Still, Putin may be incentivized to act quickly. Russia’s natural gas leverage vis-à-vis Europe will decrease as weather becomes more temperate, while Ukraine’s spring (and fall) mud seasons could constrain military operations. Don’t be shocked if there are dramatic developments this week.
Finally, Russia indicated growing unease with Chinese influence in Central Asia and the CIS in the weeks leading up to the December 15 Putin-Xi call. Russia also used dialogue with India immediately before and after the Putin-Xi call as a hedge vis-à-vis China. The two sides share interests, particularly in their dealings with constitutional democracies, but little mutual trust.
Some housekeeping: I’m writing short weekly updates on Sino-Russian relations for SupChina. I’ll also continue publishing updates for The Report at least once a month. Thanks for reading.
Table of Contents:
1) Kazakhstan Protests
2) Ukraine
3) Chinese Reactions to Kazakhstan
4) Russian responses to Kazakhstan
5) China-Russia interactions in Central Asia and beyond
6) Central Asia (pre-Kazakhstan protests)
7) RIC (Russia-India-China)
8) AUKUS, the Indo-Pacific, the Arctic, tech, and Space
1) Kazakhstan Protests
The protests that began over the weekend in the western Kazakhstan town of Zhanaozen have rolled into their third day and are now spreading across the country. The demands of the crowds are sounding increasingly political, according to scant reports from the region. But they began with something very concrete: the price of liquified petroleum gas, or LPG, the fuel that many use to power their cars.
Kazakhstan: Ex-security services chief and Nazarbayev ally arrested – Joanna Lillis for Eurasianet
This turn of events, which implicates a stalwart ally of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev in a suspected political conspiracy, hints at the likelihood of a vicious behind-the-scenes clash among elite insiders. At first glance, it appears the Nazarbayev clan is emerging as the loser…
Yertysbayev told Khabar TV that he had been given information that an order was given to remove the security cordon around the airport at Almaty just 40 minutes before protesters occupied it on January 5. That would likely only have been possible with sanction from the very top
Comment: i.e. from figures in the Nazarbayev clan
Kazakhstan’s unrest narrative derailed by confusion and blackout – Peter Leonard for Eurasianet
As the unrest was escalating, on January 5, President Tokayev appealed for assistance from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization “to help Kazakhstan overcome this terrorist threat.” The group swiftly consented, much against historic form, and Russian troops have since that time been flying into the country. A Kazakh official estimated that around 2,500 foreign troops, including from other CSTO members Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, were to be deployed. Russian media outlets have reported higher numbers. Speaking to state broadcaster Khabar, Tokayev’s spokesman, Berik Uali, said on January 9 that the CSTO mission was likely to be very brief. "They will probably stay for a week," he said.
2) Ukraine
U.S. Details Costs of a Russian Invasion of Ukraine – New York Times
The Biden administration and its allies are assembling a punishing set of financial, technology and military sanctions against Russia that they say would go into effect within hours of an invasion of Ukraine, hoping to make clear to President Vladimir V. Putin the high cost he would pay if he sends troops across the border.
NATO Foreign Ministers address Russia's military build-up in and around Ukraine – NATO
NATO Foreign Ministers held an extraordinary virtual meeting on Friday (7 January 2022) to discuss Russia’s continued military build-up in and around Ukraine, and the implications for European security.
Speaking following the meeting, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, “Russia’s aggressive actions seriously undermine the security order in Europe. NATO remains committed to our dual-track approach to Russia: strong deterrence and defence, combined with meaningful dialogue. It is a positive signal that Russia is now prepared to come to the table and talk because when tensions are high, dialogue is even more important.”
The meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers comes ahead of a series of diplomatic engagements next week with Russia, including a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council on 12 January. The Secretary General said, “We are always ready to listen to Russian concerns and NATO will make every effort to find a political way forward. But for dialogue to be meaningful, it must also address Allies’ long-standing concerns about Russia’s actions. It must be based on the core principles of European security and it must take place in consultation with Ukraine. We are also consulting closely with other key partners, such as Georgia, Moldova, Finland and Sweden, as well as the European Union.”
At today’s meeting, ministers stressed that any further aggression against Ukraine would have significant consequences and carry a heavy price for Russia. Allies continue to stand with Ukraine and fully support its sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the principle that all countries have the right to decide on their own path and their alliances. At his press conference, Mr Stoltenberg made clear that NATO will always take the necessary steps to protect and defend Allies, including by strengthening collective defence as necessary.
The Collective Putin and the Collective West – James Sherr for ICDS
The war that the West dreads most — an all-out invasion of Ukraine — is unlikely. It is not that the battalion tactical groups on Ukraine’s borders are insufficient for invasion. They will be good at it, but not for what comes afterwards. The Russian military leadership is better informed than those Western commentators who believe that Ukraine’s army will disintegrate in hours and stay dead. But whether they know it or not, they will be opening the door to people’s war…
The first [scenario of escalation], as I wrote in March, would be an occupation in force of what Russia already occupies, viz., the Donetsk and Luhansk pseudo republics. The second or simultaneous scenario, also mooted by the author has been set out in detail by Frederick Kagan and other experts at the Institute of War: viz. the deployment of ‘airborne and/or mechanised units to certain locations in Belarus’. These deployments would have three merits. First, in all likelihood, they would be unopposed. Second, they would create a new military-political reality for Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states and, to be sure, a substantial augmentation of threat. Third, they might be sufficiently justifiable in legal terms and sufficiently ambiguous in political terms to defer or dilute Western counter-measures and undermine Alliance cohesion as well.
3) Chinese Reactions to Kazakhstan
Xi sends verbal message to Kazakh president – Xinhua
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday sent a verbal message to Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev over the recent large-scale riots in Kazakhstan. Noting that the riots have caused heavy casualties and property losses, Xi expressed his sincere sympathies to President Tokayev in the message. He said President Tokayev has taken decisive and effective actions at a critical moment, quickly calming the situation, which has shown his sense of responsibility as a statesman, and demonstrated a highly responsible attitude to the country and the people.
Comment: Xi and the CCP, like Putin, are clearly siding with the Tokayev faction
China can offer support in the fields of economic cooperation and assistance, as well as counter-terrorism [bolded by The Report], to help neighboring Kazakhstan restore stability and realize effective reforms and long-term economic development, according to Chinese analysts, as Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and the government thanked Russia and China, as well as other leaders worldwide and heads of international organizations for support offered to the country amid domestic unrest.
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The First President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev is currently in the Kazakh capital, his spokesperson Aidos Ukibai tweeted, Kazinform reported. Ukibai took to his official Twitter account to reveal that the First President of Kazakhstan Nazarbayev is currently in Nur-Sultan, holding a number of consultative meetings and keeping in touch with President Tokayev. Nazarbayev also spoke by phone with heads of some friendly countries, Ukibai said. [Comment: The Global Times appears to be attempting to downplay any intra-elite fighting]…
As a neighbor of Kazakhstan, China will not just sit and watch when a key partner and friend, which is also a major source of energy under the Belt and Road Initiative is facing a tough challenge, said Chinese experts, adding that the current situation seems to be easing but remains a distance from fully restoring peace.…
Although China doesn't need and has no intention to act like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to deploy peacekeeping forces there, China has the capability to offer economic and other support, said [Zhu Yongbiao of Lanzhou University]…
"While the CSTO led by Russia will offer direct support to help Kazakhstan maintain order and stability, China could offer sustainable support for the country [bolded by The Report] to realize long-term economic development and boost effective reform to solve fundamental economic problems that could potentially cause unrest to return," said a Beijing-based expert on international relations who asked not to be named.
Tokayev vows "tough" response as situation in Kazakhstan "extremely tense" – People’s Daily
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said Wednesday he intends to "act as tough as possible" as the situation in the country becomes "extremely tense." "Despite my repeated appeals for calm, individuals calling themselves 'protesters' continue to exacerbate the situation in the country," Tokayev said in his address to the people of Kazakhstan, according to the official website of the president.
About half of the country's territory is engulfed in riots, he said, adding that the situation is especially difficult in the Kazakh city of Almaty. "As president, I am obliged to protect the safety and peace of our citizens, to worry about the integrity of Kazakhstan," said the president. "I intend to act as tough as possible... Together we will overcome this black period in the history of Kazakhstan," he said.
Earlier on Wednesday, Tokayev signed a presidential decree to accept the resignation of the country's government. In accordance with the decree, government members will continue to fulfill their duties until a new government is formed.
Chinese firms' energy projects in Kazakhstan remain safe: sources – Global Times
The protests in Kazakhstan have sparked concerns on oil and gas deliveries to China. However, Chinese enterprises and industry insiders said that the unrest will not have a big impact as the transportation of oil and gas are technically reliable. Local Chinese companies said that they are prepared, and the Kazakh government will also take corresponding measures to ensure the safety.
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Another Chinese energy company also said on Thursday that as its oil exploration projects are located far from big cities, they have not been affected for the time being, and local businesses are operating normally. "We're not thinking about pulling out of Kazakhstan, because it's a very big part of our market. The vast majority of our employees are local," the company told the Global Times on the condition of anonymity.
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Industry insiders said that although Kazakhstan is a transit country for the China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline, the delivery of natural gas should be guaranteed as those pipelines were built in remote areas far from Kazakh cities where protests occurred.
4) Russian responses to Kazakhstan
Telephone conversation with President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev – The Kremlin
The President of Kazakhstan extensively informed Vladimir Putin about the developments in the country, noting that the situation is stabilising. In the same context, he thanked Kazakhstan’s partners from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and especially the Russian Federation for the assistance being rendered.
The presidents exchanged opinions on the measures being taken to restore order in Kazakhstan. Kassym-Jomart Tokayev believes that a discussion between the leaders of the CSTO member states is necessary at the current stage. Therefore, he plans to initiate a videoconference of the CSTO Collective Security Council, chaired by Armenia as a member state currently presiding in the organisation, in the next few days.
Vladimir Putin supported his proposal. The leaders agreed to maintain constant contact.
State Duma rules out scenario of anti-Russian forces coming to power in Kazakhstan – TASS
The Kazakh leadership will most likely be able to settle the situation in the country and the rise of anti-Russian forces to power in the republic is hardly possible, Head of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian Integration and Relations with Compatriots Leonid Kalashnikov told TASS on Wednesday.
The senior Russian lawmaker pointed to how quickly "pro-Western Internet-channels" interfered in the protests and "began to bring people to the streets and coordinate them." "We must understand clearly: this is an internal affair of Kazakhstan, of course, but it is undoubtedly important for us," he pointed out.
CSTO agrees to intervene in Kazakhstan unrest – Eurasianet
A Russia-led security bloc has agreed to intervene in Kazakhstan’s spiraling unrest, the first time in the organization’s 30-year history that it has done so. The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) acceded to a request by Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on January 5 to send military assistance, which he said was needed "to help Kazakhstan overcome this terrorist threat."
Kazakhstan riots aim to undermine its integrity, Russian envoy says – TASS
Russia views the events in Kazakhstan as riots, provoked from the outside and aimed at undermining the security and integrity of the republic, Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov said in an interview for Newsweek Friday.
Mass protests in Kazakhstan advantageous for US, says Ukrainian expert – TASS
Mass protests in Kazakhstan that erupted amidst escalation between Russia and the West are not accidental, Director of the Kiev Center for Political Research and Conflict Study Mikhail Pogrebinsky said on Wednesday.
Also, the protests in Kazakhstan may "presumably exacerbate the relations between Moscow and Beijing: they hardly have equal interests in Nur-Sultan," he said. The Ukrainian expert also did not rule out that the riots in Kazakhstan were aimed at provoking Russia.
Nazarbayev stays in Nur-Sultan – TASS
The first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, stays in the capital of the republic and maintains direct contact with the current president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, according to press secretary of Nazarbayev Aidos Ukibay. "Elbasy (the leader of the nation Nursultan Nazarbayev - TASS) is located in the capital of Kazakhstan, the city of Nur-Sultan. We ask you not to spread false and speculative information," Ukibay wrote on Twitter.
5) China-Russia interactions in Central Asia and beyond
The Kazakhstan protests and Sino-Russian relations – Joe Webster of China-Russia Report for SupChina
Some observers are murmuring that the CSTO-led intervention could lead to tensions within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), but this analysis may overweight the implications of a specific crisis. Putin likely preferred using the CSTO over the much more unwieldy SCO (which includes China, Pakistan, and India, as well as nearly all CSTO members) due to the time-sensitive nature of the crisis, as time could have allowed protests to congeal, elites to waver, and security forces to defect to the opposition.
Any pragmatic leadership in the Kremlin—even a democratic one that seeks to improve ties with the West—will try to maintain stable and friendly relations with China, just as any pragmatic Chinese leadership will do with Russia.
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On trade and investment, China increasingly has the stronger hand in dictating the terms of commercial deals. Whereas Beijing is diversified in terms of its imports of energy resources, in Asia, the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom is set to operate expensive pipelines that only serve Chinese customers, while Rosneft, the state-owned oil giant, is also heavily reliant on the Skovorodino-Mohe oil pipeline that ships 30 million tons a year to China only.
If Beijing opts to temporarily halt imports via these pipelines or threatens to terminate contracts altogether, China will be able to switch to new import sources, while the Russian energy companies will be hit very hard. This asymmetry may enable Beijing to renegotiate existing contracts and seek lower prices from Gazprom and Rosneft, while Moscow will have limited options for pushing back.
Comment: Gabuev made a similar point in his Nov 2021 article for the Financial Times, Russia’s energy deals with China may backfire on the Kremlin
What Putin Really Wants in Ukraine – Dmitri Trenin of Carnegie Moscow for Foreign Affairs
To counter more drastic Western economic and financial sanctions, either in anticipation of a Russian incursion into Ukraine or as a consequence of it, Moscow may need to lean on Beijing, which also finds itself under increasing U.S. pressure. Presidents Putin and Xi Jinping are already discussing financial mechanisms to protect their countries from U.S. sanctions. In that case, Putin’s scheduled visit to China for the Winter Olympics in February 2022 might turn out to be more than a courtesy call. The United States could then see the current Chinese-Russian entente turning into a tighter alliance. Economic, technological, financial, and military cooperation between the two powers would reach new levels.
What Kazakhstan’s Crisis Means For China – Reid Standish for RFE/RL
While China has thrown its support behind the embattled Toqaev, analysts say Beijing’s reaction toward the fast-changing crisis in its oil-rich neighbor points to its measured approach to the region as a whole, where China has rigorously pursued its economic goals and often found itself navigating the interests of another one of Central Asia’s influential neighbors: Russia.
6) Central Asia (pre-Kazakhstan protests)
Meeting with heads of security agencies of CIS countries – The Kremlin (Oct 13th)
Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Sergei Naryshkin:
I would like to report to you that today we held the 17th regular meeting of the heads of security and intelligence services of our countries. My colleagues and I had quite a detailed conversation, and tomorrow we will continue to discuss topical matters related to our cooperation in the context of new, hybrid threats our countries face, as we know, from a group of Western states. What causes these threats is primarily the fact that the United States and its allies persist in their attempts to export, may I say, their Western values, or totalitarian-liberal values, as I call them, in order to influence our countries into changing our domestic and foreign policy. Of course, we have accumulated a vast amount of evidence showing that the United States coordinates these destructive efforts.
Comment: What’s left unsaid may be more interesting. This is, as best I can tell, the first time that Russia has ever publicized the “regular meeting of the heads of security and intelligence services.” Why now? Does it have something to do with the growing influence of the PRC in CIS countries?
Informal meeting of the CIS heads of state – The Kremlin (December 28th)
Vladimir Putin: Colleagues, good afternoon. Allow me to begin by thanking you for accepting my invitation and coming to Russia, to St Petersburg, to attend a meeting which has already become a tradition of sorts…
It is not usual for us to meet in this format since we mostly hold our meetings online. [Comment: An in-person meeting in the midst of the Omicron wave would seem to imply that there were sensitive discussion, and that Putin did not want to expose those discussions to Western/PRC signals collection agencies] However, presented with this opportunity, we must use it. I fully agree with you on this point and would like to thank those who initiated this meeting for arranging today’s event. We are here in Russia, St Petersburg, but despite this fact almost all of you spoke out, in one way or another, in favour of holding the meeting in this format.
Anna Popova, Head of the Federal Service for the Oversight of Consumer Protection and Welfare (Rospotrebnadzor):
Russia’s Sputnik V was the first vaccine registered in the world, and we have been sharing the benefits with our partners in the Commonwealth of Independent States. Russia has transferred vaccine production technology to other CIS states where production facilities have been built, and the vaccine is being produced…
Our countries have a substantial advantage over Soviet times – a powerful sanitary-epidemiological service and science, common approaches to epidemic-prevention measures and a similar personnel-training system. Plus we have a common language of communication. [Comment: dig at China?]…
In January 2020, at the instructions of the President of the Russian Federation, Russia was the first country to supply COVID-19 testing kits to the CIS countries. [Comment: not-so subtle reference to China] It was with Russian test kits that Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan diagnosed their first covid cases.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Uzbek counterpart, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, on Sunday exchanged congratulations on the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. In his message, Xi said that in the past 30 years, China-Uzbekistan relations have kept pace with the times and forged ahead, setting a fine example of international relations featuring harmonious coexistence and win-win cooperation.
Russian President Putin said on the 28th that Russia is committed to further promoting the development of relations between the CIS countries.
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Putin congratulated the 30th anniversary of the founding of the Commonwealth of Independent States during the meeting. He said that in the past few decades, many fundamental changes have taken place in the CIS countries. The establishment of the Commonwealth of Independent States is a reasonable and correct choice. The integration process of various countries in the fields of national security and economy has been continuously deepened. Russia is committed to further promoting the development of relations between the CIS countries.
Putin said that the ties established since the Soviet era have played a positive role in the development of relations between the CIS countries. When countries around the world are deeply affected by the coronavirus epidemic, the CIS countries can better meet the challenges of the epidemic than many countries relying on the close ties they have established.
Even if there is cause for competition in Central Asia, both Moscow and Beijing see friendly bilateral relations as a priority, especially against the backdrop of their escalating confrontation with the West.
There has been a sea change in China’s economic involvement in Central Asia. Large-scale transport and electricity projects funded by Chinese government loans have dried up. Hydrocarbon exports to China continue, but they are not the focus of most new projects. Instead, there are a growing number of industrial projects that seek to make value-added products that can be exported. These projects are increasingly staffed by Central Asians who receive technical training from Chinese firms….
So far, the outcomes have been mixed…. Newly available polling data shows that public sentiments toward China are becoming more negative.
7) RIC (Russia-India-China)
Putin-Modi talks lasted for 3.5 hours – TASS (December 6)
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s talks with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi lasted for 3.5 hours. The two men discussed bilateral relations, including joint efforts within the G20, BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the struggle with terrorism and Afghanistan.
Comment: In the run up to the Xi-Putin call
Russian President Vladimir Putin and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed their intent in a telephone conversation to further develop specially privileged strategic partnership relations between the two countries, the Kremlin press office reported on Monday.
Comment: Five days after the Dec 15 Xi-Putin call
The Russian foreign intelligence has the closest relations with the agencies of the CIS and SCO countries, while the cooperation with India and China is of particular value, Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergey Naryshkin said in an interview with the weekly Argumenty i Fakty on Wednesday.
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Cooperation with the Chinese and Indian intelligence services, including the format of trilateral meetings of their leaders, is of particular value," he said.
Comment: This is what hedging looks like in the Russian context: no explicit criticism of China while noting close ties with India. Also note that the SVR director’s interview (and mentioning of close ties with India) coincided with the Xi-Putin phone call. That was almost certainly intentional. Some siloviki factions (particularly those in counterintelligence) may be wary of embracing the PRC too tightly.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: India gains foothold in Central Asia with help from Russia – TASS
Russia and India have decided to boost interaction in Central Asia. According to Indian media, a document was signed stipulating in particular that the Indians will be able to supply the former Soviet republics with spare parts for those types of weapons that Russia and India manufacture jointly. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta, that Moscow's actions are influenced by the fact that it is not happy with China’s growing influence in the region.
Russia, India and China summit may take place in the near future — presidential aide – TASS
"The topic of cooperation in the Russia-India-China format was addressed," [Russian Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov] said, summarizing the videoconference meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and President of China Xi Jinping. The leaders "agreed to continue exchanging opinions in this regard and to endeavor to hold the next summit within the RIC framework in the near future," Ushakov added. "Putin informed Xi Jinping about the visit to New Delhi on December 6 in this context," the Kremlin’s spokesperson said.
India may be first foreign buyer of Russia’s advanced S-500 air defense system – TASS
India may be the first foreign buyer of Russia’s most advanced S-500 ‘Prometei’ anti-aircraft missile system, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov told the RBC TV Channel on Monday. "Beyond a doubt, once we deliver this system to our troops, India will be the first on the list, if it expresses its desire to buy these advanced armaments," the deputy PM said, replying to a question about whether India would be the first country to purchase the Russian-made S-500.
Comment: Doubtful that Russia will sell India the S-500 – some folks in the Russian force structures may be trying to pressure Beijing into purchasing equipment.
Russia Vetoes UN Resolution Linking Climate Change To Global Security – RFE/RL
Russia has vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution that sought to formally link climate change and global security. The resolution, drafted by Niger and Ireland, called for "information on the security implications of climate change" to be addressed by the Security Council. The measure also asked UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to make climate-related security risks "a central component" of conflict-prevention and peacekeeping strategies. The text won support from 12 of the council's 15 members on December 13. India voted no and China abstained. Veto-wielding Russia voted no to block the resolution.
8) AUKUS, the Indo-Pacific, the Arctic, tech, and Space
Putin, Xi assess negatively creation of new alliances in Asia-Pacific — Kremlin aide – TASS
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have discussed in detail the United States’ activity in the Asia-Pacific Region and made a negative assessment of the creation AUKUS and QUAD alliances there, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov said after the two leaders’ talks on a video call on Wednesday.
Moscow views AUKUS as dangerous pact, says Russian envoy to Indonesia – TASS
Russia's Ambassador to Indonesia Lyudmila Vorobyova pointed out that the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the UK, and the US (AUKUS) causes Moscow’s concerns in the regions of the Indian and Pacific oceans.
Russia and ASEAN's first maritime joint exercise ended – People’s Daily [Chinese-language]
On December 3, the first joint maritime military exercise between Russia and ASEAN came to an end in Indonesia. The purpose of this exercise is to exercise the naval cooperation between Russia and ASEAN countries, to ensure the safety of maritime economic activities and civil navigation, and to maintain the stability of the regional situation…
Russian military expert Andrei Koshkin said that this exercise is very necessary when Western countries unscrupulously undermine the stability of the Asia-Pacific region. Russia and ASEAN navies exercise coordinated operations in order to cooperate with each other in future military operations.
Comment: This was likely an arms export exhibition, and reminiscent of Russia’s posture towards India. Moscow will try to balance its interests by criticizing the QUAD (or AUKUS, in this case) while simultaneously trying to sell arms to parties that could conceivably employ them against the PRC.
Russia strengthens its military presence in the Arctic – People’s Daily [Chinese-language]
Recently, the Russian media took stock of the military construction in the Russian Arctic during the year. According to the report, Russia’s armament construction in the region is in the "fast lane." The armed forces of the Russian Federation, represented by the Northern Fleet, are constantly demonstrating their control capabilities to potential opponents through military exercises and weapon tests. The Russian government has also increased capital investment in the Arctic region to ensure the steady progress of various constructions.
China demands US halt dialogue with Taiwan — Foreign Ministry – TASS
Beijing regards the island [Taiwan] as one of its provinces. This position is supported by most countries, including Russia.
Comment: Notable position on Taiwan from the Russian Foreign Ministry
Who Will Get a Slice of Russia’s 5G Pie? – Leonid Kovachich for Carnegie Moscow
If Moscow can’t dispense with foreign participation in developing 5G technologies, it will try to diversify its cooperation with foreign vendors.
The reality is that although Russia and China have yet to bring large, technically complex projects to fruition because of division-of-labor disagreements, both countries stand to gain from this particular project. No partner offers Russia better prospects than China, while no partner offers China more experience when it comes to manned flights and space nuclear power plants than Russia. As the two countries work together, however, Moscow will need to ensure one thing above all else: that the project does not stall once China has taken everything it needs from Russia.
v/r,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.
Moscow and Beijing’s shared preference for compliant authoritarians in the region?? What a coincidence! That's America's preference, too!
Putin will undertake some serious escalation in Ukraine, but only after the Olympics opening ceremony?? Isn't that when we struck Putin last time–after the Olympics opening ceremony at Sochi? And didn't he win that big-time? We handed him control of the Black Sea, as I recall. What will we hand him this time? The Donbas and its mineral and talent riches?