New phase of Putin's war begins
New phase of Putin's war begins
Macron victorious; the PRC’s (limited and transactional) cooperation with Free World sanctions
French President Emmanuel Macron has decisively won re-election, striking an enormous blow to the Kremlin’s ambitions in Europe. With the French Presidential election in the rearview mirror, the situation surrounding Ukraine could change rapidly – potentially within the next 72 hours.
The Kremlin has begun hinting it will use weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine. The Russian Foreign Ministry says “the US and its NATO partners have moved on to a final stage of plotting provocations in Ukraine,” Russia’s National Defense Management Center claimed that “Kiev [is] plotting [a] Bucha-like false flag in Lisichansk,” and the Chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Protection Force states that the US is preparing “provocations to accuse Russia of using tactical nuclear weapons.”
The Kremlin’s WMD threats should be taken very seriously, but also reflect its weakness. Russian military forces have failed to accomplish the invasion’s initial political objectives; they may not even be able to achieve more limited objectives, such as seizing (and, more importantly, controlling) a land bridge to Crimea. Two Twitter threads from experts on the Russian military are worth reading in their entirety:
It’s not clear how long the Russian economy can sustain war efforts for long, especially if Western countries move to ban Russian oil and natural gas exports in the coming days. A ban would significantly reduce Russian oil and gas export volumes and prices, hammering the hydrocarbon-dependent Russian federal budget.
Given the correlation of military and economic forces, I remain extremely skeptical that the Kremlin can sustain the military campaign for more than a few months – at least at current intensity levels. Beijing could breathe new life into the conflict if it extends substantive economic and/or military assistance to the Putin regime, but there is little evidence to suggest that the CCP is considering this step.
While Beijing continues to amplify Kremlin disinformation, it has – so far at least – apparently shied away from extending substantive economic or military assistance to Moscow.
Shanghai, Beijing, and other Chinese cities are in the early stages of what appears to be an extraordinarily painful and costly COVID lockdown, the 20th Party Congress is looming in late 2022, and the CCP’s willingness to support Putin appears to be receding by the day. The Biden administration is also hinting (very wisely, in my view) that it is considering lowering tariffs on Chinese goods. Presumably, any reduction in tariffs would be contingent upon Beijing’s continued cooperation with sanctions vis-à-vis Putin. Skillful diplomacy may be able to partially (not completely) detach Beijing from Putin in key areas, further isolating the Russian dictator.
This edition of The Report assesses the state of bilateral economic ties by examining Chinese and Russian state media questions at the PRC’s MFA press conferences in the post-invasion period. All relevant questions from Chinese or Russian state media regarding China-Russia trade ties in the post-invasion period are presented below. Since state media activities are tightly scripted, they may reveal insights into Beijing and Moscow’s perspectives and insecurities surrounding bilateral economic ties and sanctions compliance.
This analysis of state media at post-invasion MFA press conferences suggests that Beijing seeks to minimize discussion of sanctions compliance and bilateral trade ties. Chinese state media outlets have asked only three questions about trade with Russia since Putin’s February 24th invasion, and none since April 1st. Russian state media outlets, on the other hand, have queried the MFA five times on bilateral economic ties. It’s worth noting, moreover, that Chinese state media outlets typically account for around 33-50% of all questions at these pressers. The relative absence of questions from PRC state media outlets regarding trade ties with Russia is telling: it suggests, unsurprisingly, that Beijing doesn’t want to discuss the matter in public. Beijing’s public relations strategy and, much more importantly, its substantive actions (including Huawei’s apparent suspension of its operations in Russia) suggests that Beijing has decided, at least for now, to comply with most sanctions against Putin even as it publicly denounces NATO and the United States.
The Report will be back this week with additional updates.
Table of Contents:
PRC MFA post-invasion press conferences: Chinese state media questions on bilateral economic ties
PRC MFA post-invasion press conferences: Russian state media questions on bilateral economic ties
PRC MFA post-invasion press conferences: Ukrainian questions
PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Authoritarian Political Interference Campaigns: Schröder in 2005?
Worth Your Time
1. PRC MFA post-invasion press conferences: Chinese state media questions on bilateral economic ties
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian’s Regular Press Conference on April 1, 2022 – PRC MFA
Phoenix TV: My first question is on China-EU Summit. It is reported that the EU is keen for assurances from China that it will neither supply Russia with arms nor help Moscow circumvent Western sanctions. EU officials said any help given to Russia would damage China’s international reputation and jeopardize its trade relations with the EU and the US. What is your response?
Zhao Lijian: Uncertainties are apparently mounting amid the rising volatility in the international situation. China and the EU both have global influence. Maintaining strategic communication, enhancing strategic mutual trust, and expanding consensus on cooperation between the two sides helps to promote sustained and sound development of China-EU relations, and injects stability and positive energy into the international situation. This China-EU Summit bears great significance and draws wide attention. We hope the EU side can work with China to ensure a smooth and successful meeting.
As for the Ukraine issue, I want to reiterate that China is committed to an independent foreign policy of peace and makes a conclusion independently based on the merits of each matter. We have been easing the situation and working for peace talks in our own way, and played a constructive part in preventing a humanitarian crisis. At the same time, every country has the right to independently decide its own foreign policy. Forcing others to take a side is ill-advised. Adopting a black-and-white, friend-or-foe approach is unwise. And the Cold War mentality and bloc confrontation, in particular, should be rejected. This position of China on the Ukraine issue is shared among many countries including developing countries.
On sanctions, China always opposes unilateral sanctions. The problem now is not about who wants to help Russia circumvent the sanctions, but about the fact that the normal trade exchanges between countries, China included, and Russia have already been unnecessarily hurt. Also, some forces are trying to use the issue of sanctions to escalate tensions and divide the world. I have heard that a Russian conductor was fired by a certain Western orchestra for refusing to condemn his motherland, Russian movies were excluded from film awards, Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s works are banned in university courses, and the usage of the letter “Z” is deemed illegal in some countries just because the letter is painted on Russian tanks. Western politicians often say that literature, art and music know no borders. What have Russian writers and musicians done to deserve all this? They also stress the inviolability of private property. And yet the private property of so many Russian individuals has been frozen or even confiscated. Did they ever think about their principles when all this is happening?
Their irrational moves will not do anything good for cooling the situation. It is hoped that all parties can calm down and focus on promoting talks for peace, rather than scale up sanctions and escalate tensions.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian’s Regular Press Conference on March 15, 2022
Macau Monthly: According to unspecified US officials, on March 14, the US government told allies in NATO and several Asian countries in a diplomatic cable and through intelligence agents that China had signaled its willingness to provide military and economic aid to Russia at the latter’s request. It also noted China was expected to deny those plans. He also said, the move is part of a deliberate strategy move to counter disinformation by being far more open about intelligence matters than usual. What is China’s comment?
Zhao Lijian: I’m sure you have noted that Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied the claim that Russia requested military aid from China on March 14. The US has been creating and spreading disinformation from time to time. This is neither professional nor ethical, still less responsible. By doing so, the US will further lose the trust of the world.
What the US should do is to deeply reflect upon its role in the evolving situation of the Ukraine crisis, and do more things that can help to ease the situation.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian’s Regular Press Conference on March 9, 2022
Phoenix TV: According to reports, US President Joe Biden announced a ban on oil, gas and other energy imports from Russia on March 8, and the European Commission published plans to cut EU dependency on Russian gas by two-thirds this year and gradually reduce its reliance on Russian supplies of the fuel. The UK announced it would phase out oil imports from Russia by the end of 2022. Do you have any comment?
Zhao Lijian: China firmly reject unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law. The willful wielding of the big stick of sanctions can never guarantee peace and security, but will only bring serious difficulties to the economy and people’s livelihood of relevant countries, lead to a lose-lose situation and further escalate division and confrontation. China and Russia always maintain sound energy cooperation and will continue to conduct normal trade cooperation including on gas and oil in the spirit of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit.
Comment: Chinese state media/the MFA have certainly criticized Western sanctions and amplified the Kremlin’s narratives, but they have been extremely reluctant to discuss bilateral economic ties, especially in recent weeks. Chinese state media haven’t asked a question about bilateral economic ties in three weeks, as of this writing.
2. PRC MFA post-invasion press conferences: Russian state media questions on bilateral economic ties
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian’s Regular Press Conference on April 15, 2022
TASS: Alexander Sergeev, President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said the other day the Chinese Academy of Sciences put their cooperation with their Russian counterpart “on hold”. Can you confirm this? How do you comment on the people-to-people exchanges between China and Russia on these areas?
Zhao Lijian: China and Russia are continuing cooperation and exchange activities in science and technology as scheduled. Guided by the vision of everlasting friendship and win-win cooperation, the two sides will advance relevant cooperation in a practical manner.
Cooperation in science and technology, as an important part of China-Russia practical cooperation, has been gaining momentum in recent years. The China-Russia Year of Scientific and Technological Innovation was successfully held from 2020 to 2021, during which over 1,000 innovative cooperation and exchange activities were held, delivering fruitful results. This has opened new ground for future cooperation and testified to the immense potential and broad prospects of bilateral scientific and technological cooperation.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian’s Regular Press Conference on April 1, 2022 – PRC MFA
RIA Novosti: Financial Times said that Chinese tech companies risk violating sanctions if they keep shipping phones and telecom gear to Russia. What is China’s comment?
Zhao Lijian: I haven’t seen the reports you mentioned. China has stressed its position on the issue of sanction on many occasions. China does not approve of resolving issues through sanctions, and opposes unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction that have no basis in international law. We have said many times that sanctions, like war, solve no problems and create new ones. We also urge relevant politicians in the US to stop threatening to use sanctions at every turn. They should take concrete measures to help cool the situation down in Ukraine and resolve the Ukraine crisis through peaceful consultations.
Comment: Huawei appears to have paused its operations in Russia, at least for now.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference on March 29, 2022
TASS: According to Reuters, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs this month summoned officials from China’s three state energy giants, Sinopec, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), to review their business ties with Russian partners and local operations. One source of Reuters said the ministry urged them not to make any rash moves buying Russian assets. I wonder if you have any comments on this report?
Wang Wenbin: I am not aware of the situation you mentioned. I want to reiterate that China and Russia have been conducting normal economic and trade cooperation on the basis of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefits.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference on March 25, 2022
TASS: The latest deterioration in the Russia-Ukraine situation will affect China’s import of grains from Ukraine. Is China looking at this issue and trying to find new ways to ensure its food security? If Ukraine is unable to export grains including wheat, will China form new supply chains and start buying more grains from other countries such as Russia?
Wang Wenbin: Please turn to the competent authorities for an answer to this question. I would like to say that the situation in Ukraine has had and will continue to have an enormous impact on the global economy and trade, finance, energy, food and the industrial and supply chains, severely affecting the normal life of people in all countries and debilitating the already struggling world economy. The momentum of global economic recovery should not be dampened and people around the world should not be made to pay the price for geopolitical conflict and major power rivalry. China will continue to play a constructive role in easing the situation in Ukraine and stands ready to strengthen communication and cooperation with all parties to provide more positive energy for the steady, sound and sustainable development of the world economy.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian’s Regular Press Conference on March 9, 2022
TASS: White House spokesperson Jen Psaki warned that if China “does not comply” with sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia because of Ukraine, then this could lead to “retaliatory steps” from the United States. Do you have any comments on this statement?
Zhao Lijian: Sanctions are never the fundamental and effective way to solve problems. China firmly opposes any form of unilateral sanctions or long-arm jurisdiction by the US. When dealing with the Ukraine issue and the relationship with Russia, the US should take seriously China’s concerns and not undermine China’s rights and interests in any way. China will take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies and individuals.
Comment: Russian state media have been much more willing to question the MFA about bilateral economic ties than their Chinese counterparts. This is true on an absolute and (especially) relative basis: Chinese state media typically account for a third to a half of all questions at the MFA press conferences.
3. PRC MFA post-invasion press conferences: Ukrainian questions
Comment: Ukrainian state media/independent media outlets don’t appear to have asked a single question at any of the PRC MFA’s post-invasion press conferences. Beijing-based reporters/editors: are there *any* Ukrainian outlets or reporters in the PRC MFA’s press pool? Please feel free to reach out to me directly: editor@ChinaRussiaReport.com or, even better, send me a link to any of your reporting on the issue, which I will happily link to in the next edition of The Report.
4. PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian’s Regular Press Conference on April 22, 2022 – PRC MFA
Phoenix TV: Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that the Russian military found some documents, which show that the US Department of Defense conducts bio-military programs in Ukraine. Russia has shared some facts with the UN and some other international organizations and asked the US for a detailed explanation. Do you have any comment?
Zhao Lijian: I noted relevant remarks. Indeed the US has not made any convincing explanations for its biomilitary activities yet.
The US statements have so far been largely ambiguous and even self-contradictory, which further reinforces the suspicions of the international community. For example, how many cooperation facilities is the US running across the world? How many biological samples did the US ship out of Ukraine according to bilateral agreement and for what purpose? What is the sensitive information that Ukraine is not allowed to make public according to the agreement? Did the US conduct dangerous research overseas that is prohibited in the US?
Bloomberg: A senior diplomat for the Czech Republic, which assumes the EU’s rotating presidency later this year, warned Beijing that cooperation with Moscow risks undercutting ties with Brussels. The comments were made in a meeting with a Chinese delegation. And the Czech foreign ministry said in a statement, we use the meeting to again express our reservations to current Chinese cooperation with Russia. Does the foreign ministry have a comment?
Zhao Lijian: My colleagues and I have repeatedly made clear China’s position on the Ukraine issue. With regard to the latest remarks from the Czech Republic that you just mentioned, I’m sure the head of the Chinese delegation made clear China’s position during the meeting.
I would like to stress that China always makes its independent judgement based on the merits of the matter itself. On the Ukraine issue, we speak for justice and work for peace with a long-term vision. We are not siding with anyone against anyone. If one has to pick sides, then China stands on the side of peace, dialogue, negotiation and deescalation, instead of war, unilateral sanctions and actions aimed at fanning the flame.
Bloomberg: US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said China wasn’t helping the situation in Ukraine by doing things like amplifying Russian disinformation campaigns. And she also said that she hoped Beijing learned the right lessons, also her words, “from Russia’s war, including that it can’t separate the US from its allies.” Does the foreign ministry have a comment on this?
Zhao Lijian: I noted the remarks by the US side. China believes that these remarks, especially the accusations against China, are entirely clichés and an old trick to smear and slander China. China has repeatedly made clear its position on the so-called “competition-cooperation-confrontation” trichotomy. This is in essence a cover-up for US containment and suppression of China, which boils down to the US’ problematic perception of China. We urge the US to view China and China-US relations in an objective light, earnestly implement its leadership’s statements that the US does not seek a new Cold War with China; that it does not aim to change China’s system; that it does not seek to target China by revitalizing its alliances; that it does not support “Taiwan independence”; and that it has no intention to seek a conflict with China. The US should work with China to find the right way to get along with each other featuring mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation under the new circumstances.
Comment: While the US and other Western countries are doubtlessly troubled by Beijing’s amplifications of the Kremlin’s disinformation campaigns, the PRC seems to be largely complying with the substance of sanctions.
Phoenix TV: G7 finance ministers said in a statement that they regretted Russia’s participation in international forums, including G20, International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings and that international organisations and multilateral fora should no longer conduct their activities with Russia in a business-as-usual manner. Do you have any comment?
Zhao Lijian: We noted the G7 statement. The G20 and relevant international institutions are platforms for discussing international economic and financial issues, not an appropriate venue to discuss the Ukraine issue. The current international landscape is fraught with various instability and uncertainties, which calls urgently for international solidarity and cooperation. Countries should practice true multilateralism, choose dialogue and cooperation instead of stoking confrontation or creating division, and work together to uphold global stability instead of exacerbating spillover effects caused by the conflict. The G7 should adopt a responsible attitude, refrain from politicizing or weaponizing international cooperation, and inject more stability and certainty into the world faced with many challenges. All countries in the world are fellow passengers on the same ship and must stick together. It is unacceptable to throw anyone overboard.
Comment: Does brutally invading a sovereign nation qualify as throwing “anyone overboard”?
5. Authoritarian Political Interference Campaigns: Schröder in 2005?
German pollsters brace for another late shift – Reuters [2009]
Could the pollsters get it wrong again? That is the fear hanging over Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives days before Germany holds a federal election.
Dramatic last-minute comebacks by the Social Democrats (SPD) in the last two elections in 2002 and 2005 blindsided pollsters and Merkel’s conservative bloc -- her Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Christian Social Union (CSU) sister party -- twice denying them hoped-for center-right coalitions.
Comment: I’m certainly no expert on German politics, but it’s interesting that Schröder surged in the last-minute of the 2005 elections.
The Former Chancellor Who Became Putin’s Man in Germany – NY Times [April 23, 2022]
On Sept. 8, 2005, 10 days before the election in which Mr. Schröder’s Social Democrats lost to Ms. Merkel’s conservatives, the Nord Stream 1 contract was signed by representatives of Gazprom, E.On and BASF.
It was celebrated by industry and politicians across the spectrum. Mr. Putin had come for the occasion and attended the ceremony with Mr. Schröder.
Comment: An excellent article, but, strikingly, I don’t recall any commentator raising the 2005 German elections when discussing Putin’s interference campaigns. With the benefit of time and Putin’s pattern of behavior, it’s possible – perhaps even likely – that the Russian dictator sought to bolster Schröder’s electoral prospects in 2005 via the last-minute signing of a popular natural gas deal.
Putin uses both disinformation and, perhaps more importantly, economic tools to influence electoral outcomes in Western democracies. In the lead-up to the 2016 US Presidential elections, Putin and OPEC+ sought to support oil prices by halting production increases; before the 2020 US Presidential elections, Putin and OPEC+ maintained low oil prices.
Putin also may have aligned his invasion of Ukraine with the European political calendar. There is some limited evidence that Putin sought to influence the 2021 German federal election, as natural gas and crude oil price movements remained restrained through the German vote on September 26th. Putin may have recognized that high energy prices would likely have benefitted the electoral prospects of the German Greens Party, which is openly hostile to the Kremlin. Still, Putin’s energy market influence is limited and asymmetric: it is much easier for Putin to artificially raise prices via geopolitical uncertainty than it is to lower them. Putin may have waited until after the German election concluded before acting against Ukraine, but the evidence isn’t dispositive.
While Putin’s invasion was primarily motivated by Ukraine-specific issues, he also very likely hoped that rising energy prices and economic dislocations would elevate the prospects of one or more pro-Kremlin extremists in the French Presidential elections. President Macron’s re-election represents a major defeat for the Kremlin.
6. Worth Your Time
BMB Russia (Neptune’s Trident) – Special Military Edition Rob Lee and Natalie Simpson for FPRI
The sinking of the Moskva provides an important naval warfare case study. One important takeaway is that system modernizations are key. While Russia modernized several other cruisers in its fleet, it chose to make only limited repairs to the Moskva. The ship was therefore equipped with aging air and missile defense systems, which ultimately made it a liability to the Russian navy. Ukraine also displayed sophisticated tactics during the strike. Preliminary sources suggest that the Ukrainians may have taken advantage of the cruiser’s limited radar capabilities by using a Bayraktar TB-2 UCAV to distract onboard defenses.
Rob Lee on why attrition will be a critical factor in the battle for Donbas – The Economist
Why Putin’s ‘Satanic’ missile launch matters – Mark Galeotti for The Spectator
In practice, it is worth noting that Moscow provided Washington with full advance notice, observing its obligations under the New Start arms treaty. However, the new Putin we have seen this year appears less predictable and more of a risk-taker than in the past. If Sarmat and the rest of Russia’s strategic arsenal is likely to have a role, it will be in trying to deter the West from any major response if – and it is still very much an if – Putin breaks all the rules and uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.
Russia’s offensive in the Donbas can’t make up for its failure in Kyiv – Vox
Ultimately, the Russian objective here, per some analysts, is to take enough territory to be able to sell its own population — and the world — on the idea that their campaign was a success despite the failures around Kyiv.
If Russia can secure its control over the breakaway republics in the area controlled by pro-Russian separatists — the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics — they can claim to have achieved a pre-war aim of stopping “genocide.”
“They have now put their stake on this being the ‘defense’ of the Donbas,” says Olga Oliker, the International Crisis Group’s program director for Europe and Central Asia.
v/r,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.