Oil, wheat, spies, lies
All eyes on the Middle East
A short newsletter. Two suggested articles and a long paper up top: The Economist recently released “Why is Xi Jinping building secret commodity stockpiles?” The article is very much worth your time, although it’s worth noting the difficulties of accurately measuring China’s crude oil stocks: different analysts arrive at different figures. Additionally, I’ve written “China’s high-stakes diplomacy: Managing Middle Eastern turmoil” for The Lowy Institute. The piece examines how the crisis could impact Chinese interests largely by applying an economic/energy lens. I’ve also included a chart below that was cut in the interests of time.
Sources: PRC General Administration of Customs, Author’s Calculations
Finally, Gabriel Collins of Rice University and Andrew S. Erickson of the U.S. Naval War College have written “Annexation of Taiwan: A Defeat From Which the US and Its Allies Could Not Retreat.” I haven’t gone through the full 100+ page report yet but will. The executive summary and access to the full paper is here.
Table of Contents:
1) Oil and the Middle East
2) Wheat/Agriculture
3) Russian security services
1) Oil and the Middle East
Iraqi Rudao TV reporter: What impact will Haniyeh's assassination have on China's peace efforts in the Middle East? Will it affect the signing of the China-mediated agreement not long ago [the Beijing Declaration]? In addition, the increasingly complex situation in the Middle East will distract or weaken China's efforts to achieve security, stability and peace in the region?
Lin Jian: China has stated its position on the relevant incident. We firmly oppose and condemn the assassination and are deeply concerned that this incident may lead to further destabilization of the regional situation. Gaza should achieve a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire as soon as possible to avoid further escalation of conflict and confrontation.
China has always supported internal reconciliation in Palestine and believes that achieving internal reconciliation in Palestine is an important step in promoting the resolution of the Palestinian issue and achieving peace and stability in the Middle East. China appreciates the efforts made by various Palestinian factions to reach the Beijing Declaration and sincerely hopes that the various Palestinian factions will realize the establishment of an independent Palestinian state at an early date on the basis of internal reconciliation. China will continue to make unremitting efforts to this end together with all parties concerned.
Regarding your second question, the more serious the situation in the Middle East is, the more the international community should work to ease the situation and promote the de-escalation of the conflict. China has always been committed to maintaining peace and stability in the Middle East and opposing external interference. We are willing to work with all parties concerned to make unremitting efforts to promote long-term peace and stability in the region.
Al Jazeera: The Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) issued a statement saying that Hamas leader Haniyeh was killed in an Israeli airstrike at his residence in Tehran, the capital of Iran. What is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' comment on this?
Lin Jian: We are highly concerned about the relevant incident, firmly oppose and condemn the assassination (坚决反对并谴责暗杀行为), and are deeply worried that this incident may lead to further destabilization of the regional situation. China has always advocated resolving regional disputes through negotiations and dialogues. Gaza should achieve a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire as soon as possible to avoid further escalation of conflicts and confrontations.
… this is a dynamic we see a lot of in the Gulf, where leaders frequently say they can separate security and economic relationships, a position that is at odds with the early great power competition era.
2) Wheat/Agriculture
Russia, China expand agricultural trade – World Grain
In the previous decades, Russian grain exports to China were not only hampered by sanitary restrictions, but also relatively high logistics costs and a lack of transport and logistics infrastructure.
Russia shares a border with China only in the Far East, nearly 9,000 kilometers away from the key Russian agricultural regions.
Comment: This article is very thorough and worth a read, if relevant to you. It’s from last year, but I came across it after RFA reached out for a story on China’s repurposing farmland for solar power plants and its energy-water-food nexus. More soon on Chinese food security and Sino-Russian agricultural trade, which isn’t as significant as I previously thought. If you’ve done research on Chinese food security or PRC-Russia agricultural trade, and would like it to be included on the China-Russia Report, please drop me a note.
Russian-European Fertility Rites – The Devil’s Dance (Thane Gustafson’s substack)
Hence our puzzle. How did it happen that hundreds of thousands of tons of Russian fertilizer have ended up stranded in European ports since the Russian invasion of Ukraine—even though Russian fertilizers are not subject to Western sanctions? Read on.
3) Russian security services
Russian military intelligence officers are believed to have been deployed to Yemen to assist the Iran-backed Houthis with targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea, Middle East Eye can reveal.
Members of Russia’s GRU military intelligence are operating in the Houthi-controlled territory of Yemen in an advisory role, a senior US official told MEE, speaking on condition of anonymity and citing US intelligence.
Comment: This report, while plausible, isn’t confirmed by another outlet to my knowledge. It’s worth noting that Middle East Eye allegedly has ties to the Qatari government.
Russia pulled back weapons shipment to Houthis amid US and Saudi pressure – CNN
Russia was preparing to deliver missiles and other military equipment to the Houthi rebels in Yemen late last month but pulled back at the last minute amid a flurry of behind-the-scenes efforts by the United States and Saudi Arabia to stop it, multiple sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
Anne Frank statue in Amsterdam defaced for second time in less than a month – CBS News
The statue commemorating Anne Frank, one of the most famous victims of the Holocaust, was defaced with pro-Palestinian graffiti for the second time on Sunday.
The statue is located in Merwedeplein, near the Anne Frank House in Amsterdam.
According to images published on X, the base of the statue was spray-painted with the slogan "Free Gaza" while the girl's hands were painted with the same red color, AFP reported.
Police have opened an investigation into the most recent defacement, which likely occurred overnight Saturday into Sunday. An Amsterdam police spokesman told AFP that no suspect had yet been identified.
Comment: Defacing the Anne Frank monument is a despicable act. Regardless of what you think of Netanyahu or the Israeli government’s response to the October 7th terror attack, it’s senseless, bigoted, and bizarre to direct protests at Holocaust victims who were murdered even before the existence of Israel.
The defacement smells like a potential operation by the Russian security services. They, and their Soviet predecessors, have a long history of employing agent provocateurs and anti-Semitism to inflame public opinion.
Racial engineering is an old but sharp tool in the [Russian/Soviet security services’] active measures arsenal, deployed equally against — and among — African-Americans, Jews and white nationalists, to pitch these groups against one other and to amplify social conflict. On Christmas night 1959, for example, swastikas and “Jews Out” was daubed, in red and white paint, on the walls of the newly reopened synagogue in Cologne, Germany. Over the next seven weeks a vast anti-Semitic hate campaign swept through West Germany, other countries in Western Europe and the United States. By mid-February, the government in Bonn had counted 833 anti-Semitic incidents across all West Germany.
Comment: While the West undeniably has its own homegrown problems, it shouldn’t shock anyone if Russian security services were behind either or both attacks on the Anne Frank House.
Until next time,
Joe
Joe Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and editor of the China-Russia Report. This article represents his own personal opinion.
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.