Putin appears to think he’s winning
Putin appears to think he’s winning
Xi may be considering more open support for Putin in the conflict
Xi and Putin held a bilateral phone call on Wednesday, which was also Xi’s 69th birthday. While the call’s importance shouldn’t be overstated, it is symbolically important. Moreover, it does appear that Xi and the CCP apparatus are considering stepping up material support for Putin: the Chinese ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanhui, claimed that Beijing will provide aircraft “components” to Moscow. Still, Zhang has spoken out of turn before and his comments on providing “components” was vague. Worth watching carefully.
Putin appears to believe that the war is turning in his favor and that he can outlast Kyiv and the rest of the West. Xi’s phone call may reflect optimism in both capitals that the war will result in a Russian victory. I’ll be listening in on Michael Kofman and Dmitri Alperovitch’s discussion of the war in Ukraine tonight at 8 PM ET (it’ll also be available as a recording).
Finally, there has surprisingly little attention paid to the significant and growing dispute between Kazakhstan and Russia. President Tokayev rebuked many of the Kremlin’s Ukrainian territorial claims in his visit to Moscow this week. In response, Putin appeared to try to publicly humiliate the Kazakh leader by mispronouncing his name; Russian authorities have also created a flimsy pretext to shut down Kazakh crude oil exports again.
Interestingly, Tokayev almost certainly anticipated that his comments during the visit would attract international attention and arouse the Kremlin’s ire. With Russian attention turned to Ukraine (and, later, potentially, Belarus) for the foreseeable future, Kazakh officials seem increasingly willing and able to assert independence and defy Moscow.
Central Asia is, at best, a secondary priority for Moscow and Beijing. Still, growing tensions between Nur-sultan and Moscow could very easily complicate ties between Russia and China.
Table of contents:
Bobo Lo on Sino-Russian relations
Lessons for Taiwan
China, Russia, Energy Markets, and Trade
The War
Xi-Putin communications
Xi and Putin speak at St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF)
Kazakhstan-Russia tensions continue to rise
Worth Your Time
1. Bobo Lo on Sino-Russian relations
Turning Point? Putin, Xi, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine – Bobo Lo for the Lowy Institute
Contrary to the voices of accommodationists, there is no deal to be reached with the Kremlin except from a position of strength. That means arming Ukraine to the teeth so that it can defend itself properly. It means inflicting further crushing sanctions on the Russian economy, including an early (and long overdue) end to oil, gas, and coal imports. And it entails a major strengthening of NATO military positions in frontline member-states, moving from tripwire defence to actual deterrence.[52] Inevitably, some in the West (and western Europe in particular) will call these measures provocative and escalatory. But the reality is that failure to stop Putin in Ukraine will generate far worse and more widespread consequences, while weakening our collective capacity. We have no choice but to confront Russian aggression; the only question is whether we do it now or later, and under what conditions.
None of this is to suggest that the West should go easy on Beijing, many of whose policies directly threaten Western interests and are inimical to its neighbours. The point, however, is that China continues to operate largely within the existing international order; as noted earlier, it seeks to game the system, not destroy it. Consequently, there is still some (if shrinking) scope to cooperate with it in selected areas, such as combating climate change. Instead of pursuing a one-tone policy that condemns China for almost everything bad in the world, Western governments should practise what they already advocate, namely, a balanced approach that contains elements of cooperation, competition and, when necessary, confrontation. With Russia, unfortunately, functional interaction is off the table while Putin rules — and vague calls for “engagement” and “dialogue” will not bring it back.
…
What is perhaps most surprising is how little has changed in the Sino–Russian relationship over the past five years. True, cooperation has continued to grow on several fronts. The personal dynamic between Xi and Putin is exceptionally positive. And the two governments have managed to finesse potentially tricky issues, such as China’s growing influence in Eurasia and penetration into the Arctic. Nevertheless, the essential character of the partnership is unaltered. Events in Ukraine have confirmed trends that were already evident in 2017 (and indeed long before): Beijing’s utilitarian approach towards Moscow; Russia’s growing dependence on China; and the diverging development trajectories of the two countries.
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In 2017, I speculated that the future of the relationship might depend less on international events than on developments inside China and Russia.[59] Today, I would double down on that judgement. Unless Russia can reverse its prolonged political and economic decay, the prospects of a “deep-rooted and long-lasting convergence” with China are remote. This is not to suggest that their partnership will fall apart. Beijing and Moscow will identify common interests and share certain aspirations, for example, in resisting liberal internationalism and US global leadership. But a global China and a marginalised Russia would have much less to talk about. Their relationship might begin to resemble, in some respects, that of Beijing and Pyongyang today. It would be a partnership of strategic convenience, but one defined principally by its limits rather than possibilities.
Comment: Some of this work has been overcome by events but, as always, every word Lo writes is worth reading.
2. Lessons for Taiwan
4 lessons China should take from Ukraine: Pentagon policy chief – Breaking Defense
Colin Kahl, the undersecretary for defense for policy, said he hopes Russia's troubles in Ukraine are "soaking in" as China eyes Taiwan.
Zelenskyy calls on world to take 'preemptive measures' to prevent China invasion of Taiwan – Yahoo
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on the world to aid Taiwan before a possible Chinese invasion in his special address at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-La Dialogue.
The Return of Industrial Warfare – Alex Vershinin for RUSI
In short, US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine. If the initial estimate of Russian shells fired is over by 50%, it would only extend the artillery supplied for three weeks.
The US is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving US, UK and French forces, UK forces exhausted national stockpiles of critical ammunition after eight days.
3. China, Russia, Energy Markets, and Trade
Europe’s Gamble and the End of Russia’s Oil Power – Nick Trickett for Riddle
Europe is committed to rewiring global flows of crude oil despite the economic pain. Russia cannot readily redirect all affected production elsewhere to offset these incoming losses. Nor can it maintain its geopolitical influence as an oil power at this rate.
Russia's Crude Flows to Asia Take Hold Near Unprecedented Levels – Bloomberg
China, India taking close to half of crude shipped from Russian ports
China ready to supply components for aircraft to Russia, says envoy – TASS
China is ready to supply components for aircraft to Russian airlines, Chinese Ambassador to Moscow Zhang Hanhui told TASS.
"We are ready to supply components to Russia, we are organizing such cooperation," he said. "[Airlines] are currently addressing [it], they have certain channels, there are no restrictions from the Chinese side," the diplomat added.
Comment: This will be a big deal, IF CONFIRMED. Many of Zhang’s statements in the crisis have not been authoritative. Once again, he may be speaking out of turn, and it’s not clear how Zhang defines “components.” This issue is worth watching carefully, however.
China bans Russian flights – Joe Webster of the Atlantic Council for SupChina (June 2nd)
Beijing barred Russia’s foreign-owned planes from flying into its airspace after Moscow appropriated the jets in February. But Moscow and Beijing also held an official conference on their close bilateral relationship.
Interview: Ukraine crisis threatens 2023 grain harvest, says top FAO economist – People’s Daily
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected access to food on a global level and could deal a blow to the crop harvest in 2023, which is a "major concern" of the Rome-based United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the agency's chief economist has said.
Maximo Torero told Xinhua in a recent online interview that this year, global access to food is hampered by the rocketing prices.
"In March, we had the biggest peak in the FAO's food price index," he said, adding that although the monthly index declined slightly in April and May, cereal prices continue to increase.
4. The War
Ukraine war could last for years, warns Nato chief – BBC
The West must prepare to continue supporting Ukraine in a war lasting for years, Nato's chief has warned.
Despite failing to capture Kyiv at the outset of the war, the Kremlin is reportedly considering a second assault on Ukraine’s capital, as Russian troops appear to be on the verge of seizing the entire Donbas region. Sources tell Meduza that advances in the east and expectations that Moscow can win a war of attrition against Kyiv and its Western allies have revived hopes in the Putin administration that a full-scale victory is possible in Ukraine before the end of the year.
Comment: This leak seems like an information operation from the Kremlin. While Russia will likely consolidate gains in the Donbas and along the land bridge to Crimea, a push into Kyiv appears highly unlikely.
Ukraine in its previous borders no longer possible – diplomat – TASS
The Russian Foreign Ministry’s official spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, said it was no longer possible for Ukraine to return to its previous borders.
"The Ukraine that you and I had known, within the borders that used to be, no longer exists, and will never exist again. This is evident," the diplomat said in an interview to Sky News - Arabia, published in her Telegram channel on Friday.
The head of the Lugansk People’s Republic, Leonid Pasechnik, said the country may hold a referendum on accession to Russia. The head of another Donbass republic, the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), said the issue on joining Russia will "become the number one issue" once the republic restores its constitutional borders.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said in a program broadcast on Russian TV on the 15th that Russia rejects the concept of limited nuclear war, because once nuclear weapons are used, there will be no turning back….
Ryabkov stressed that Russia will always adhere to the goals set out at the beginning of the special military operation, which will be achieved no matter what the West decides. "We will end the operation when we decide," he said, rather than ending the special military operation as the United States or other countries envision it.
5. Xi-Putin communications
Telephone conversation with President of China Xi Jinping – The Kremlin
The presidents stated that Russian-Chinese relations were at an all-time high and are constantly improving. They reaffirmed their commitment to consistently deepen the comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction in all areas.
Comment: The Chinese side didn’t include recent language characterizing ties at on “all-time high” or “unprecedentedly high level” 前所未有的高水平, likely due to reputational concerns.
The current state of and prospects for trade and economic cooperation, the volume of which is expected to reach record high levels in 2022, were reviewed in detail. It was agreed to expand cooperation in energy, finance, the manufacturing industry, transport and other areas, taking into account the global economic situation that has become more complicated due to the illegitimate sanctions policy pursued by the West. The further development of military and defence ties was touched upon as well.
Comment: The Chinese readout was much less specific and didn’t mention energy ties
Vladimir Putin laid out his principled assessment of the situation in Ukraine and the tasks being tackled during the special military operation. The President of China noted the legitimacy of Russia’s actions to protect fundamental national interests in the face of challenges to its security created by external forces.
Xi talks with Putin over phone – Xinhua
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday afternoon held a phone conversation with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
During their conversation, Xi noted that since the beginning of this year, bilateral relations have maintained a sound development momentum in the face of global turbulence and transformations.
The economic and trade cooperation between the two countries has made steady progress, Xi said, adding that the Heihe-Blagoveshchensk cross-border highway bridge has opened to traffic, creating a new channel connecting the two countries.
The Chinese side stands ready to work with the Russian side to push for steady and long-term development of practical bilateral cooperation, Xi said.
China is willing to work with Russia to continue supporting each other on their respective core interests concerning sovereignty and security, as well as on their major concerns, deepening their strategic coordination, and strengthening communication and coordination in such important international and regional organizations as the United Nations, the BRICS mechanism and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Xi said.
China is also willing to work with Russia to promote solidarity and cooperation among emerging market countries and developing nations, and push for the development of the international order and global governance towards a more just and reasonable direction, he added.
For his part, Putin said the Russian side sincerely congratulates China on its remarkable development achievements under the strong leadership of Xi.
Since the start of the year, the practical cooperation between Russia and China has been developing steadily, he said, adding that Russia supports the Global Security Initiative proposed by the Chinese side, and opposes any force to interfere with China's internal affairs using so-called issues regarding Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan, among others, as an excuse.
He noted that Russia is ready to strengthen multilateral coordination with China so as to make constructive efforts in boosting multipolarization of the world, and establishing a more just and reasonable international order.
The two heads of state also exchanged views on the Ukraine issue. Xi emphasized that China has always independently assessed the situation on the basis of the historical context and the merits of the issue, and actively promoted world peace and the stability of the global economic order.
All parties should push for a proper settlement of the Ukraine crisis in a responsible manner, Xi said, adding that China for this purpose will continue to play its due role.
Putin calls Xi for his 69th birthday – Joe Webster of Atlantic Council for SupChina
Beijing remains concerned about secondary sanctions and reputational damage. Still, Xi’s phone call with Putin could signal that Beijing is contemplating providing more visible, material support to Moscow.
6. Xi and Putin speak at St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF)
Russia’s economic forum to be far smaller but moves forward – AP
As of early June, about 2,700 business representatives from 90 countries were expected to attend — far below the 13,500 participants from 140 countries reported last year.
Xi's speech at 25th SPIEF promotes global solidarity, prosperity, experts say – Xinhua
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday addressed the plenary session of the 25th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in virtual format, in which he put forward four proposals to advance global solidarity for sustainable development.
Putin’s answers at SPIEF: Ukraine, sanctions and Donbass warfare – TASS
Putin: “Russia does not mind Ukraine’s accession to the European Union: "The EU is not a military organization or a military-political bloc, in contrast to NATO. We have always said, and I have always said that our stance is very consistent and clear in his respect: we have nothing against."
Comment: This is some effluvia, as Ukraine’s potential accession to the EU was a major cause in Russia’s illegal intervention in 2014.
7. Kazakhstan-Russia tensions continue to rise
Kazakh President Vows Not To Violate Sanctions Against Russia – RFE/RL
President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev has vowed that Kazakhstan won't break international sanctions imposed against Russia over its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
In an interview with Russia's Rossia-24 TV broadcast on June 15, Toqaev said his country continued to work with the Russian government in an "intensified manner," but quickly added that "sanctions are sanctions."
"We cannot violate them, especially because we receive warnings about possible so-called secondary sanctions against our economy from the West if we did violate the sanctions," he said.
"But I stress, we continue working with the Russian government, I would say in an intensified manner and reach necessary agreements, while not violating the sanctions," Toqaev said, adding that his country continues its allied duties with regards to relations with Russia such as remaining in Russian-led groupings like the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Putin Gets Unexpected Pushback From Ally Over War in Ukraine – Bloomberg
Kazakh leader dissents as Putin defends invasion at forum; Putin claims sanctions are hurting West more than Russia
Comment: This wasn’t “unexpected.” Tensions between Kazakhstan and Russia have been building for months, while President Tokayev has been engaged in a highly visible pushback against Russian irredentism, including a signed article in The National Interest.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned of “major power conflicts” in Central Asia, and hinted at a greater role in the region as China eyes rail connections with Europe.
The China-Russia-Kazakhstan triangle (May 20th) – Joe Webster of Atlantic Council for SupChina
In this week’s China-Russia update: With tensions between Kazakhstan and Russia rising, China may be looking at how to best preserve its limited — but not unimportant — regional interests. China is also in talks with Russia over a major crude purchase, although it continues to largely comply with sanctions.
On March 23, China also unveiled its new hydrogen policy, the “Medium and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021–2035).” Since hydrogen could theoretically displace most uses of natural gas and crude oil, the new policy could endanger Russia’s commodity exports to China, particularly over the long term. The timing of the hydrogen policy’s announcement — just two days after Russia sanctioned CPC oil flows — is striking and may suggest that Beijing is becoming increasingly displeased with the energy market turmoil wrought by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Comment: Russia is reportedly (again) sanctioning Kazakh crude shipments
8. Worth Your Time
China and Russia: united in opposition – Vincent Brussee and Roderick Kefferpütz for MERICS
Beijing and Moscow’s bilateral communiqués have evolved in recent years to demonstrate the same threat perception, an analysis by Roderick Kefferpütz (text) and Vincent Brussee (data) shows.
v/r,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.