Putin backs off, or puts plans “on ice”?
Moscow alarmed by COVID trends
Many shoes didn’t drop this week. Putin announced that troops would pull back from the Ukrainian border (although much of their equipment remains behind, allowing Moscow to quickly escalate again). The Address to the Federal Assembly and Putin’s conversation with Lukashenko didn’t produce any bold announcements about the Union State. Alexei Navalny is still alive and ended his hunger strike amid significant (but not massive) protests across Russia. Finally, Putin didn’t disrupt the White House Leaders Summit on Climate. Why did Putin seemingly de-escalate across the board?
First, it’s still not yet certain that Putin has, in fact, de-escalated. While some troops are pulling back, Russian units, tanks, and vehicles are still massed along the Ukrainian border. An incursion or canal seizure appears *much* less likely than a week or two ago but still cannot be ruled out in the weeks ahead. Second, Putin appears to have secured a June summit with President Biden. Some observers believe this was the intent of his maneuvering, or at least an acceptable outcome. Third, others believe that deterrence and diplomacy worked, as Presidents Zelensky, Biden, and other Western leaders may have used a combination of political determination, military posturing, sanctions queueing, and summit offers to force Putin to back off.
There’s potentially another factor at play: Putin’s calculus may have been shaped by fears of another domestic COVID outbreak. India’s skyrocketing COVID cases could foreshadow Russia’s own near-term COVID trajectory: governments in both countries prematurely relaxed COVID restrictions even as transmissible variants took hold. While Russia’s COVID cases are flat, at least according to official statistics, Putin has declared a 10-day “non-working period” (a quasi-lockdown) from May 1st to May 10th. With Russia’s “vaccine population coverage” at only 6.1% according to Bloomberg, the Kremlin may be concerned at the consequences of another COVID wave.
Putin may have de-escalated in Ukraine and Belarus, at least for now, because a combination of military casualties, financial sector sanctions, and COVID-imposed economic lockdowns could have sparked a financial and political crisis within Russia.
In China-Russia news, Putin and General Secretary Xi held a call and affirmed their support for one another’s ruling parties ahead of Russia’s September Duma elections. The two sides also appear to be expanding their space cooperation. Finally, the FSB also arrested an alleged spy, Alexei Vorobyov Ph.D., associate professor of the Moscow Aviation Institute’s Rocket Engines department; it claims he was working for a NATO country. There’s a small but non-zero chance that the FSB is misrepresenting the Vorobyov case: he could have been working for PRC security services, and/or the FSB may have publicized his arrest to warn off the MSS.
As India’s COVID cases soar, the Russia-India-China (RIC) triangle has been active this week. Russia and China have stated they will aid India’s battle against COVID, with Moscow pledging specific aid in the form of oxygen generators and concentrators.
Finally, why did Navalny protesters face more repression in St. Petersburg than Moscow? There are many possible reasons. Some of them are more interesting than others.
Table of Contents:
1) Expert opinions on What Just Happened
2) China-Russia
3) FSB potentially catches possible NATO and/or PRC rocket engine spy
4) Russia-India-China (RIC)
5) Russia
6) Belarus
7) Ukraine
8) Afghanistan and Central Asia
9) The GRU and Russian Security Services
10) Authoritarian Political Influence Campaigns
1) Expert opinions on What Just Happened
The Grand Old Sergei Shoigu, He Had 10(0),000 Men… - Mark Galeotti
So what was this about? I felt this was about a concatenation of three factors. Late April is when the campaign season always starts, as thaw muds dry, and each year we get the “OMG, Russia’s going to invade” chorus, especially from certain quarters in DC. Sure, this concentration of forces was unusual, but some escalation is normal. Zelensky’s new shift towards attacking “pro-Moscow” forces at home, not least to shore up his flank from the nationalists, was perceived as a hostile move in the Kremlin, and one that demanded punishment The Kremlin is unhappy with the Donbas status quo, and has been for a while, and the operation was an attempt to push Kyiv towards renewed negotiations on Moscow’s terms. We probably would have seen this kind of move last year, had COVID not disrupted everything.
Comment: I disagree with a lot of this analysis, but Galeotti is always worth reading.
Regardless of how military and political decision-makers in Washington D.C., London, Paris and Berlin actually assess the situation, there are indications that at least some western capitals may inadvertently encourage rather than discourage Russian aggression.
Europe must admit Russia is waging war – Keir Giles and Toomas Hendrik Ilves for Chatham House
But to disregard what has been declared an act of state terror resulting in deaths of innocent civilians on the territory of a NATO and EU member state represents an entirely different magnitude of irresponsibility. There are also strong indications Russia may have caused a series of unexplained explosions in Bulgaria during the same period. Continued failure by Europe to respond adequately to the long-term deterioration of its security serves only to convince Russia it can carry out these attacks with no fear of retribution.
How to Speak With Moscow When There's Nothing to Talk About – Sam Greene for Moscow Times
Putin now has to deal with an American administration that expects little from Moscow, wants even less, and — to add insult to injury — is unperturbed.
2) China-Russia
The ninth meeting of the dialogue mechanism between the ruling parties of China and Russia was held online on the 20th. General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee and President Xi Jinping and President Putin of the Russian Federation sent congratulatory letters to the meeting.
Xi Jinping expressed his warm congratulations on the convening of the meeting in the congratulatory letter. He said that 2021 is the 20th anniversary of the signing of the "Sino-Russian Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation" and the 20th anniversary of the establishment of relations between the Communist Party of China and the United Russia Party. In the past 20 years, China and Russia have carried forward the concept of friendship for generations and the principles of a new type of international relations, carried out close and comprehensive strategic cooperation, and established a model for relations between major powers in the world today. The two parties have carried out long-term institutionalized exchanges to effectively consolidate political and strategic mutual trust between China and Russia and promote all-round mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries.
Putin said in the congratulatory letter that the United Russia Party and the Communist Party of China, as the main political forces in Russia and China, respectively, ushered in the party's major commemorative node this year, namely the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and the 20th anniversary of the founding of the United Russia Party. The two-party dialogue has always been an important part of the Russia-China comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination. What is particularly valuable is that despite the impact of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, the United Russia Party and the Communist Party of China have always maintained comprehensive exchanges at the central and local levels. The two sides discussed in-depth many major issues of bilateral cooperation, exchanged practical experience around party building and legislative work, and coordinated the formation of many useful social and political initiatives that meet actual needs. I look forward to the constructive and fruitful work of the delegates participating in this conference to further consolidate the friendship and mutual understanding between Russia and China and the two peoples.
China National Petroleum Corporation: cooperation between Russia, China to keep growing – TASS
China expects positive changes and intensification of the scale of cooperating with Russian in the oil and gas sphere, Chairman of the China National Petroleum Corporation Dai Houliang says on Wednesday. "Cooperation with Russia has always been an important component of China’s interaction in the energy sphere with other countries. Scales of our joint activity in this area are steadily growing. I am confident there will be growth in this year and in subsequent ones," Dai Houliang said during the Economic Forum for Asia in Boao.
Putin warns West of harsh response to unfriendly acts – People’s Daily
Russia vowed on Wednesday to quickly respond to unfriendly acts by the West, spare no effort to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic and continue its weapons development, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during his 17th State of the Nation Address in Moscow.
In his address of an hour and 20 minutes, Putin also stressed the importance of multilateral organizations, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization－of which Russia is a member－in maintaining global safety and stability. Putin's speech was the 27th State of the Nation Address in the history of modern Russia. The ceremony was usually attended in person by about 1,000 guests, including State Duma legislators and senators, Cabinet members and presidential administration officials. This year, the Kremlin didn't disclose the number of those invited to attend and requested all those attending to undergo three nucleic acid tests to prove they have a negative COVID-19 status.
Russian National Aerospace Corporation President Dmitry Rogozin announced on the 21st that if President Vladimir Putin approves, Russia is ready to start building its own space station and strive for it to be launched by 2030.
China reveals moon station plan with Russia, openness on Space Day – Global Times
In the latest show of China’s consistent open-mindedness in the space sector, China National Space Administration and its Russian counterpart issued a joint declaration on cooperation in the creation of the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), with the two sides emphasizing the facility is open to all international partners interested in cooperation, the CNSA disclosed to the Global Times on Saturday, which marked the Space Day of China 2021.
Russia joins China's mission to sample an asteroid and study a comet – Space.com
China has selected a Russian science payload to fly on an upcoming mission to sample a near-Earth asteroid and later visit a main-belt comet. China is aiming to launch the ambitious mission around 2024. First, it will collect samples from the small near-Earth asteroid Kamo'oalewa. Then, the spacecraft will return to Earth to deliver the samples and use the planet's gravity to send the spacecraft toward the main asteroid belt to orbit the Comet 133P/Elst–Pizarro.
The Russian version of Xi Jinping's "On Promoting the Building of a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind", translated by the Institute of Party History and Documentation of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, was recently published by the Central Compilation and Translation Publishing House.
Xi Jinping's "On Promoting the Building of a Community with a Shared Future for Mankind" was edited by the Party History and Literature Research Institute of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, and included 85 important manuscripts on promoting the building of a community with a shared future by Comrade Xi Jinping. The Russian version of the book and the previously published English, French, and Japanese versions are of great significance for foreign readers to have a deep understanding of the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind, and a deep understanding of the rich connotations of Xi Jinping’s diplomatic thoughts and my country’s foreign policies.
Comment: Why did the PD publish this on the 20th? I’m not sure, but it’s interesting that the PD takes pains to remind readers that the Russian version was published only after the English, French, and Japanese versions.
3) FSB potentially catches possible NATO and/or PRC rocket engine spy
Russia jails aviation lecturer for 20 years for treason – Reuters
A Russian court sentenced a senior lecturer at an aviation institute to 20 years in jail on Friday after finding him guilty on treason charges, it said, the latest in a series of such cases...
The Interfax news agency reported last week that an academic studying aerodynamics had been detained on suspicion of state treason for allegedly passing secrets to a NATO country.
Comment: This is a separate case from the Alexander Vorobyov espionage case. Alexander Vorobyov was a former assistant to the presidential envoy to the Urals Federal District who was arrested by the FSB in July 2019.
Russian associate professor sentenced to 20 years for treason – TASS
The Moscow City Court sentenced Alexei Vorobyov Ph.D., associate professor of the Moscow Aviation Institute (MAI), to 20 years in prison over charges of treason, the court press service told TASS Friday.
"On April 22, the Moscow City Court ruled A.G. Vorobyov guilty of crimes under Article 275 (State treason), Part 1 Article 30, Part 3 Article 189 of the Russian Criminal Code (illegal export or handover of materials, equipment, technologies, scientific and technical information or illegal work that could be used for development of weapons of mass destruction), Part 3 Article 30, Part 3 Article 226.1 of the Russian Criminal Code (smuggling of toxic, poisonous, explosive, radioactive, nuclear materials or firearms), and sentenced him to 20 years in a high security prison with a monetary fine of 1 million rubles ($13,387) and restriction of freedom for 1.5 years," the court spokesperson said.
Vorobyov is an associate professor at MAI’s Rocket Engines department.
Comment: It’s extremely plausible that Vorobyov spied for NATO, as RIA claims – but the PRC would also be a possible suspect. Jet engines (which are distinct from rocket engines) are a well-known relative weakness of the PLAAF and are therefore presumably a collection priority for PRC security services. Still, the FSB hasn’t shied from publicizing PRC espionage cases in the recent past.
The Moscow City Court on Friday sentenced the Moscow Aviation Institute’s assistant professor Alexey Vorobyev to 20 years in high-security colony for treason, RAPSI was told in the court’s press service.
The defendant was also fined 1 million rubles ($13,400).
The court found him guilty of treason and two rare crime counts including preparation for illegal export from Russia or transfer of materials, equipment, technologies, science and technical information, illegal execution of works (provision of services) which can be used for mass destruction weapons and military equipment development and attempted smuggling of extremely poisonous, explosive and radioactive agents, radiation sources, nuclear materials, firearms and their parts, detonating devices, ammunition, mass destruction weapons and their delivery means, other weapons, military hardware, materials and equipment as well as sensitive goods and recources or cultural values or highly valued wild animals and aquatic biological resources. The case was heard behind closed doors because of confidential data.
Could Ukrainian Firm Solve China’s Jet-Engine Problem? – Defense News
Washington and [Kyiv] are trying to block the Chinese takeover of a jet-engine maker little known outside Ukraine, Motor Sich. If the sale goes through, it will let China obtain a key defence technology that has eluded them for decades, in one of the few remaining disciplines where the US and its allies retain a competitive advantage.
Roscosmos chief says the two countries could team up on space transport services and satellite navigation
China makes progress in developing rocket engines for space missions – Xinhua – 2021
China is creating a new line of rocket engines for its upcoming space missions, the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) announced Tuesday.
According to the state-owned satellite and rocket maker, progress has been made in key technologies for a hydrogen/oxygen high-thrust staged combustion cycle engine, which will serve the country's heavy-lift carrier rockets. The CASC is developing a heavy-lift rocket with a carrying capacity of 140 tonnes to low-Earth orbit, according to previous reports. The rocket will offer support for China's lunar explorations, deep space explorations, large-scale space infrastructure construction and space resource development.
4) Russia-India-China (RIC)
China says it's discussing COVID-19 help with India – People’s Daily
China on Friday reaffirmed its promise to help India combat COVID-19, and the two sides are currently discussing the matter, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said at a daily press briefing. "We are willing to provide support and assistance in accordance with the needs of the Indian side," he said. China has already said on Thursday that it's willing to help India control the recent COVID-19 surge. India on Friday reported over 330,000 confirmed infections, a new record daily spike, and also the world's largest one-day rise in case numbers. Medical oxygen and beds have become scarce during the fresh wave in India. Major hospitals are putting up notices saying they have no room for any more patients and police being deployed to secure oxygen supplies.
"Americans First": US Defends Export Ban On Covid Vaccine Raw Materials To India – NDTV
Defending US's restrictions on the export of key raw materials for the manufacture of COVID-19 vaccine that threatens to slow India's vaccination drive, a senior State Department official has said the Biden administration's first obligation is to take care of the requirements of the American people..
U.S. to send vaccine materials and other supplies to hard-hit India, officials say. – NYT
The Biden administration, under increasing pressure to address a devastating surge of the coronavirus in India, said on Sunday that it had partially lifted a ban on the export of raw materials for vaccines and would also supply India with therapeutics, rapid diagnostic test kits, ventilators and personal protective gear.
Russia to fly in assistance including oxygen generators, concentrators – The Hindu
Russia is planning to fly special planes with a wide range of COVID-related assistance including oxygen generators and concentrators as well as drugs needed for the treatment of the coronavirus that is ravaging many parts of India, but may have to hold off sending the drug Remdesivir owing to U.S. patent violations.
EXCLUSIVE India to get Russia's Sputnik V vaccine only by end-May – Reuters
It isn’t yet time to write obituary of India-Russia ties – Deepak Vohra for The Sunday Guardian
The Quad is a major consideration for Russia and China. How will India’s involvement in the Quad and the promotion of the Indo-Pacific strategy impact Indo-Russian ties? India would much prefer a Russia deepening its ties with other Quad partners, rather than being excluded from the Indo-Pacific space and left entirely in Chinese arms.
5) Russia
Political and corporate complexity on the Northern Sea Route – Pavel Luzin for Riddle
However, even now those trade link dreams remain distant. Transit cargo accounted for approximately 1.3 million tonnes of the total freight traffic of the 33 million tonnes traded in 2020. This is only a fraction of the Asia-Europe transit via the Suez canal… Of the 33 million tonnes of NSR cargo traffic in 2020, more than 20 million were exports of liquefied natural gas produced by NOVATEK and oil extracted from Gazprom Neft’s Novoportovskoye field.
A Q&A on the Russian leader’s domestic troubles with Timothy Frye, author of a new book, “Weak Strongman.”
For one, it is important to consider who we are actually talking about. Russia’s middle classes are starkly different from the entrepreneurs, executives and small business owners whom development models posit as drivers of change. With Russia’s economy overwhelmingly dominated by the state and private small enterprises making up just a fifth of GDP, analysts ranging from Carnegie’s Andrei Kolesnikov to Alfa Bank’s Natalia Orlova point out that Russia’s middle classes are an army of civil service bureaucrats and middle managers at state-controlled companies. They owe their family’s economic wellbeing to the sprawling state—under pressure as it may be, but still relatively stable and facing a slow-burning decline rather than a cliff-edge drop. They are not going to be agitating for the kind of wholesale changes that might necessitate some kind of foreign policy shift, such as easing confrontation with the west.
Russia’s Claims of Sputnik V's 97.6% Effectiveness Under the Spotlight – Moscow Times
After accounting for this, analysis by The Moscow Times and independent statistician Alexander Dragan, who has been closely tracking Russia’s vaccination statistics, suggests the real world effectiveness could be to 86-90% — slightly below the results Sputnik V’s Phase 3 clinical trials, which were published in The Lancet and showed an efficacy of 91.6%...
“This is still a very good result,” Dragan told The Moscow Times. “I don't understand why this embellishment is necessary — 85% and above is a really great number, especially when it’s based on such a large sample.”
Indeed, over the past two to three weeks, the situation with the spread of coronavirus infection has begun to worsen.[Bolded by The Report] Therefore, I believe that the proposal of the Moscow business to stimulate vaccination among the elderly deserves attention.
Comment: Mayor Sobyanin has been one of the most serious and transparent authorities in the fight against COVID, even as national statistics don’t reflect reality.
The lack of demand for vaccinations may not be troubling the Kremlin, at least for now, because there is a relatively low stockpile of the vaccine itself. As the Proekt investigation revealed, the vaccine is in short supply in regional centers outside Moscow and St. Petersburg. In smaller towns, dozens of vaccination points have been closed after running out of vaccine; when fresh shipments do arrive, they typically last for only a few days.
6) Belarus
Putin, Lukashenko did not discuss Russia-Belarus merger, assures Kremlin – TASS
"No, a merger of the states into a single one [was] not [discussed]," he affirmed when responding to a question on the issue. "As for integration issues, integration is a permanent process, it is a living mechanism. Integration issues are on the agenda all the time." Peskov noted that he did not know what statement Lukashenko was going to make in the near future. "I am unaware of that. As you know, there have been no statements so far, so we here do not know what it is all about, just like everyone else," he explained.
The main objective here may have been to send a clear and unambiguous message to the Belarusian strongman: you are in Russia’s sphere of influence now and you have no place else to turn. Judging from his subsequent comments, Lukashenka appears to have received the message loud and clear.
Belarus is the new front in Putin’s war against Ukraine – Brian Whitmore for the Atlantic Council
Reports of growing Belarusian military activity in areas close to the Ukrainian border come as Russia expands its military, political, and economic footprint in Belarus and amid a sharp deterioration in what were once friendly relations between Minsk and Kyiv.
Russia and Belarus have scheduled a record number of military exercises this year, culminating with the massive Zapad-2021, which is set to take place in September. The exercises are resulting in a constant rotation of forces which, according to military analyst Michael Kofman of the CNA Corporation, effectively establishes a de facto permanent Russian military presence in Belarus. That presence will be enhanced by a new joint training center that will be established in the Grodno region of western Belarus.
7) Ukraine
Ukrainian president invites Putin to meet in Donbass – TASS
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky on Tuesday invited his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to meet "at any location" in the conflict-hit eastern Ukrainian region of Donbass.
8) Afghanistan and Central Asia
The China-Kazakhstan Joint Laboratory of Agricultural Sciences recently obtained the accreditation certificate issued by the Ministry of Trade and Integration of Kazakhstan and officially started operation
How the U.S. Plans to Fight From Afar After Troops Exit Afghanistan – NYT
Drawing on the hard lessons from President Barack Obama’s decision a decade ago to withdraw American troops from Iraq — allowing the rise of the Islamic State three years later — the Pentagon is discussing with allies where to reposition forces, possibly to neighboring Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, according to United States officials.
Comment: Is this real? Why would any Central Asian country choose to host US forces? And why would the Pentagon even seek to deploy forces in the region? If there’s ever a hot war with the PRC, Putin, or both, US forces in Afghanistan or Central Asia would be sitting ducks.
Also, the reporters’ framing and narrative here is noteworthy.
Biden’s Afghanistan Withdrawal Is a Blow for China – Bobby Ghosh for Bloomberg
9) The GRU and Russian Security Services
Czech Republic expels 18 Russian envoys, accuses Moscow over ammunition depot blast – NBC News
The Czech Republic said on Sunday it had informed NATO and European Union allies about suspected Russian involvement in a 2014 ammunition depot explosion and the matter would be addressed at an E.U. foreign ministers' meeting on Monday. The central European country expelled 18 Russian embassy staff on Saturday over the issue and said investigations had linked Russian intelligence to the explosion, which killed two people.
Pentagon investigated suspected Russian directed-energy attacks on U.S. troops - Politico
The Pentagon has briefed top lawmakers on intelligence surrounding suspected directed-energy attacks against U.S. troops, and officials identified Russia as a likely culprit, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.
What Has Become of the GRU, Russia’s Military Intelligence Agency? – Moscow Times
Two striking facts from a Czech investigation into the GRU’s role in the 2014 explosions of ammunition depots in the village of Vrbetice shed light on how the GRU has developed over the years. First, investigators learned that GRU agents organized the two explosions — that claimed human lives on the territory of a European country. This was part of an operation to poison Bulgarian arms dealer Emilian Gebrev, thereby disrupting the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Second, it turned out that the same two GRU operatives who had attempted to poison Sergei Skripal in the United Kingdom personally arranged the explosions.
10) Authoritarian Political Influence Campaigns
Report: China, Russia fueling QAnon conspiracy theories – Yahoo News
For much of last year, the report found, Russian actors dominated the foreign QAnon space on Facebook. But they have been overtaken in recent months by those based in China as the government there has ramped up its disinformation efforts in response to increased tensions with the United States, the report says. From Jan. 1 to Feb. 28, 2021, 58 percent of foreign-based QAnon posts came from administrators in China — more than double that from Russian administrators, the Limbik analysis found.
Until next time,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.