Putin decides on next steps
Putin's plans major address immediately before WH climate summit
Putin announced yesterday that he will address the Federal Assembly on April 21st, although the Kremlin has not announced the venue or themes of the speech. Putin has also indicated he will attend the White House’s long-planned climate change virtual summit on April 22nd, or the day after the address to the Federal Assembly. Interesting sequence of events, no?
Putin will almost certainly address Ukraine in his Assembly speech. I will not be surprised if he also makes some dramatic announcement regarding his cabinet, his own personal political future, or both. In any event Putin appears set to unveil some course of action, whatever it is.
The Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly generally occurs in December or January, although the Kremlin seems to have pushed it back this year in hopes that warmer weather would reduce COVID-19 risks. A third wave of cases appears increasingly likely, however, as more transmissible variants have become widespread across Russia. Will the Kremlin hold the Assembly indoors, anyways?
I’m trying a new format, with shorter but more frequent updates. Your thoughts and feedback are always welcome: editor@ChinaRussiaReport.com. To The Report’s new readers from Ukraine and Russia: Здравствуйте. Wish we “met” under better circumstances.
Table of Contents:
1) Ukraine
2) Russian domestic developments
3) China-Russia
4) Russia-India-China (RIC)
5) Central Asia
1) Ukraine
Mikhail Kodarenko [former Russian colonel]: On the other hand, there’s the risk of getting involved in a war with nearly the entire West collectively. Considering that we have no allies or even sympathizers, it’s no exaggeration to say that the voting wouldn’t go Russia’s way at the UN. And the situation could rapidly become complicated for Russia. There will be a kind of geopolitical zugzwang, as they say in chess. Whatever move you make, the consequences are unpredictable, to put it mildly.
Comment: How would the PRC vote in that scenario?
Russian forces are on the move around Donbas and into Crimea, and the unsettling thing for the outside world is that we don’t know why…
Ultimately, though, nations do not generally slide accidentally into war, but the greatest risk is to be found in uncertainty. Nations miscalculate all the time, and miscommunicate their intent as often, but the less clear they are about intent, the more scope there is for mutual missteps. Moscow has, it has to be said, made it very difficult to know where it stands, through years of deliberate deception and disinformation. This is the downside of seeking to cultivate ‘dark power,’ of actively seeking to seem more dangerous and unpredictable than it actually may be. No wonder Kyiv and others will assume the worst.
Is Putin about to launch a new offensive in Ukraine? – Various Experts for The Atlantic Council
Taras Kuzio, Professor, National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy: Russia is unlikely to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine because this would lead to a long war and the complete breakdown of Russia’s relations with the West. Vladimir Putin is more likely to be aiming for a repeat of the trap he laid for Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili in 2008, when provocations from South Ossetia led to Georgia’s intervention in the separatist region. This gave Russia the excuse to militarily intervene “in defense of its citizens” and humiliate Saakashvili.
Russia would love to provoke Ukraine in the same manner. Much as it did previously in Georgia, the Kremlin has distributed hundreds of thousands of Russian passports to Ukrainians living in occupied eastern Ukraine. Ominously, in recent weeks the Kremlin-controlled Russian media has begun loudly accusing Ukraine of plotting an offensive.
Large-scale combat readiness checks kick off in Russian troops – TASS
Final combat readiness checks for the winter training period kicked off in Russian troops, Russia’s Defense Minister Army General Sergei Shoigu said at the ministry’s conference call on Tuesday. "In accordance with the Armed Forces’ training plan, final checks have begun in military command centers, military units and formations," the defense minister said. "The troops have moved to training grounds for holding tactical, special tactical and force-on-force exercises. I require ensuring a high quality of control checks and security in the movement of military echelons and military hardware," Shoigu said.
Overall, 4,048 exercises of various scope, including 812 force-on-force drills will be held in April at 101 practice ranges and 520 training facilities. The drills are running on the territory of all the county’s military districts and the Northern Fleet, and also in the areas of the Extreme North, the Kuril Islands and on the Kamchatka Peninsula, according to the data of Russia’s Defense Ministry.
I have always emphasized: [we should] not just supply water, but [we may supply it] if something happens, which I would not want to happen. For instance, a humanitarian crisis in Crimea in terms of water supply... Therefore, the issue of water supply may be considered separately in case of a humanitarian crisis and not just because Russia wants us to supply water," Head of the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) Leonid Kravchuk said on the air of Dom TV channel.
Comment: This story seems extremely plausible, but where is its sourcing? Be careful on social media, folks, especially amid serious tensions
2) Russian domestic developments
Putin will address the Federal Assembly on April 21 – Meduza
President Vladimir Putin will deliver his annual address to Russia’s Federal Assembly on April 21, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Monday, April 5. Peskov promised to reveal the event’s venue at a later date. The Kremlin spokesman did not announce the topics Putin plans to cover in his address to the Federal Assembly.
Lavrov meets with Biden’s Climate Envoy John Kerry in India’s capital – TASS
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry held a short meeting in New Delhi, a source in the Indian capital told journalists Tuesday. The meeting took place in the lobby of a hotel where both diplomats are staying. The envoys focused on the climate agenda, the source said.
Russia’s Sputnik V Vaccine Less Effective Against South African Variant – U.S. Study – Moscow Times
“Sera from Sputnik vaccine recipients in Argentina had a median 6.1-fold and 2.8-fold reduction in neutralizing potency against B.1.351 and the E484K mutant spike, respectively,” the study said.
In eight of the 12 cases — 67% — the researchers found antibody responses that were “indicative of a failure to neutralize” against the South African variant, pointing to “markedly reduced neutralization titers” in the blood samples. The results appear to contradict earlier statements by Russia’s health watchdog that claimed Sputnik V provided effective protection against variants of the virus. No research into the effectiveness of the Sputnik V vaccine against virus mutations in the real world has been published.
Russia must not allow third Covid wave, PM warns – TASS
It is necessary to prevent the third coronavirus wave in Russia, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin claimed Tuesday, noting the situation in other countries that have already declared the third wave of the infection.
Comment: Russian state media has been mentioning Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin less and less frequently. He’s been the point person for the COVID response, but TASS is quoting the PM above.
3) China-Russia
Russia Delays Approving Chinese Vaccine to Favor Homegrown Shots – Bloomberg
CanSino’s local partner had hoped for authorization in January
Russia Fines TikTok In Latest Challenge To Global Social Media Over Protests – RFE/RL
A Russian court has ordered a fine against the popular video-sharing application TikTok in the country's latest major dispute with a global social platform over content allegedly related to political protests.
4) Russia-India-China (RIC)
Russia hopes to hold summit with India in 2021, Lavrov says – TASS
Moscow expects to hold a summit of the Russian and Indian leaders this year if the epidemiological situation allows, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with Indian newspaper Hindustan Times. "We hope that the epidemiological situation would allow us to organize a bilateral summit in 2021," Lavrov said.
Russia also hopes that India and China will find mutually acceptable political and diplomatic ways to settle the border standoff near the Ladakh union territory. "We expect both states as responsible members of the international community to find mutually acceptable political and diplomatic ways to remove existing differences at the earliest," Lavrov said.
According to the foreign minister, Moscow is closely watching the process of normalization at the Line of Actual Control, functioning as the India-China border. Lavrov noted that Russia welcomed the agreements reached after the telephone conversation between the foreign ministers of India and China on February 25, 2021, aimed at ironing out the situation.
"We highly appreciate the constructive approach demonstrated by both sides. We pay due respect to the intensions of New Delhi and Beijing to act independently and within the frameworks of established multilayer bilateral dialogue mechanisms, without interference from outside," Lavrov stated.
Russia says in talks to make more military equipment in India – Reuters
Russia and India are discussing “additional” production of Russian military equipment in India, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday, in a move that could irk the United States which frowns upon countries engaged in defence trade with Moscow.
5) Central Asia
Turkmenistan: Master Berdymukhamedov goes to Moscow – Eurasianet
Serdar Berdymukhamedov, Turkmenistan’s president-in-waiting and son of the incumbent, on March 30 embarked on a four-day trip to Russia as part of an official government delegation. The outing looked like yet another dress rehearsal.
… These may be trifling episodes, but they do nonetheless underscore the relentless tune of bonhomie sung jointly by Russia and Turkmenistan. Moscow’s bear-hug embrace of Ashgabat becomes ever more certain with each of these exchanges.
Dashboard: Vaccinating Eurasia – April – Eurasianet
Kazakhstan:
A small number of essential workers began receiving shots on February 1. On April 5, the Health Ministry reported that 174,300 people had received at least one dose, Vlast.kz reported. Prime Minister Askar Mamin said on April 6 that he hoped Kazakhstan would reach herd immunity with 10 million people inoculated by September, Interfax reported.
Until next time,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.