Putin warns America amid mutual domestic insecurity
China-Russia alliance discussions continue
In an extraordinary January 15th TASS op-ed written under Dmitry Medvedev’s name, the Russian Security Council all but sided with Donald Trump’s false claims that the 2020 US Presidential election was stolen.
I’ve written detailed thoughts below, but here are four main takeaways: first, the op-ed is an unsubtle warning that Putin might attempt further – and potentially extraordinary – interventions in US domestic politics. Second, it’s important to note that Medvedev – and not Putin – delivered this message. Putin’s non-appearance likely signals that this is a warning to the incoming Biden administration rather than an indication of imminent action. Third, by making Medvedev (the former Prime Minister and current Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council) the face of this letter, Putin hopes to divide his potential domestic and international opponents. Medvedev has often been a reluctant warrior for Putin and is one of the least anti-Western figures in Putin’s orbit. Putin may hope to use this letter to bind Medvedev closer to the regime and channel sanctions towards one of the least anti-Western figures in Russian politics. Finally, Putin’s op-ed reflects insecurity over his domestic political position.
Putin’s fears are attributable, in part, to a flailing vaccination program. The Sputnik V and EpiVacCorona vaccines’ efficacy levels and side effects are still not publicly known, the Chumakov vaccine won’t be available until March at the earliest, and a highly credible analyst suggests that official statistics overstate the number of vaccinations by over 400%. These setbacks are damaging because vaccines may be the only way to defeat COVID. Many public health experts suggest that prior infections do not offer full immunity from the newest COVID mutations, substantially raising the risk of reinfection and preventing herd immunity through infection. Putin has announced a new “mass vaccination campaign,” but Russians remain wary of domestic vaccines and, notably, he has not publicly taken a shot. Russia’s COVID cases will likely remain elevated until at least the spring; additional lockdowns appear highly probable.
China’s vaccination programs are facing serious but less severe challenges. The Sinovac vaccine may have efficacy of only 50%, according to Brazilian health authorities; the Sinopharm vaccine’s reported efficacy rate (80%) is under scrutiny; and two senior managers at Sinopharm abruptly resigned last week (although their departures could be unrelated to vaccine work). Despite these setbacks, it’s possible that Brazilian health authorities miscalculated the Sinovac efficacy rate, and China has two other vaccine candidates in Phase Three trials. Still, Chinese state media’s relative silence on domestically-produced vaccines is noteworthy, and General Secretary Xi Jinping’s “Starbucks olive branch” this week appears motivated, at least in part, to hedge against vaccination setbacks. The CCP leadership’s confidence in domestic-made vaccines appears to have declined over the past month.
The public health and economic stakes of these vaccination programs are enormous. If neither China nor Russia can achieve herd immunity from vaccination in 2021 – or potentially even 2022 – COVID’s impacts could send their economic and financial systems into crisis. Perhaps just as importantly, weak vaccination performance relative to the Free World could undermine the domestic and international legitimacy of both regimes. Putin seems alarmed by this possibility; Xi seems moderately concerned.
Sino-Russian military and diplomatic ties continue to advance, with Chinese scholars and even officials raising prospects of an official alliance. In a call with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said “in developing China-Russia strategic cooperation, we see no limit, no forbidden zone and no ceiling to how far this cooperation can go.” In bilateral phone calls, both Xi and Putin emphasized expanding trade ties but did not mention an alliance in their public statements. Nevertheless, Chinese and Russian military cooperation was highly visible in recent weeks. Chinese and Russian strategic bombers undertook a combined air patrol in the Asia-Pacific in December, and both countries agreed to mutual notification of the launch of ballistic missiles. It’s likely that the two sides will some way to formally deepen military and political interactions in 2021, and some form of an alliance between the two governments is not inconceivable. It’s unclear if any alliance could outlast Putin, however.
1) Putin’s warning to the United States
2) Russian and Chinese vaccine roll-outs appear to be in trouble
3) Putin’s domestic political challenges
4) China-Russia interactions: emphasis on trade; alliance not ruled out
1. Putin’s Warning to the United States
Dmitry Medvedev: America 2.0. After the election – Op-ed for TASS
“The [United States] is divided, the fault line running between people of different value orientations, which reflect on the electoral choice between Republicans and Democrats. There is a clear "value divide" between conservative Americans and those who promote change in traditionalist attitudes, between "law-abiding" Americans and those who support active street protest, between those employed in high-tech industry and those left out of the technological revolution…
There have also been large-scale violations of the election law… According to the nonprofit organization Judicial Watch, by September 2020, 29 out of 37 states had 1.8 million more registered voters than actual eligible voting-age citizens… In addition, there were occasions of people who had long since died having voted for one of the candidates. [Comment: this is a dog whistle for the Kraken Kaucus, which believes the US election was stolen from Donald Trump]
The most acute situation arose as a result of the mass postal voting, which brought Joe Biden a reported majority during the counting of ballots. It is not even that Democrats created a controversial opportunity to gain votes from a passive part of their electorate, using the pandemic as an excuse. They encouraged a more active use of the mail-in voting procedure, which had been widely used only in some states during previous campaigns. According to Donald Trump, this paved the way to uncontrolled machinations… Lawyers representing the Republicans found it unsound that so many states had continued to count the votes for several days after the voting day. They had some serious questions as to the legitimacy of accepting the late ballots. [Comment: Just asking questions] …
The techniques previously used by Washington for democratization of other countries backfired. The cold civil war that had been raging in the US for a few months reached its climax… The situation that has been brought about by a chain of events predetermined by the archaic voting system can lead to new waves of violence and unrest…
There is one more critical issue which, in the context of the outdated American electoral system, has moved up extremely high up the agenda. I am talking about the unprecedented role in public politics of social networks and new media, and, accordingly, of private IT companies that own those platforms… During the vote counting, Trump's posts on Twitter, where he has over 85 million followers, were flagged as potentially misleading and later even hidden… For America, just as for the rest of the world, this level of corporate censorship is a truly extraordinary phenomenon… This is but a blatant censorship!
…
Even on the issue of interaction with China the candidates have managed to take generally opposing positions. Although both share the opinion that China is America's main competitor. As part of the election campaign, Biden's rhetoric towards China was significantly more peaceful in comparison to Trump's promises and actions. However, trade restrictions imposed by the Trump administration may remain in place in the new circumstances if the situation requires so. The experience of the Jackson-Vanik amendment and other sanctions laws shows that such restrictions can persist for a long time, even after the reason for their imposition has disappeared.
We expect it is highly likely that the United States will consistently pursue an anti-Russian policy… There was indeed some hope of reversing the negative dynamics during the Trump presidency… His words did not matter much, however, as numerous restrictive measures in the Congress were supported by both Democrats and Republicans.
…Moreover, the Democrats’ team includes politicians who hold similar views and have no interest whatsoever in improving relations between Moscow and Washington.
I have listed only a few areas which will obviously be among those deserving special attention. Most importantly: the unpredictability of further US actions in the international arena, a kind of toxicity of this country even for its allies and partners is a result of serious social upheavals that American society faces.”
Comments:
1) Clocking in at ~4,500 words (~15 pages) this article is part of a highly deliberate strategy.
2) This appears to be an unsubtle warning that Putin might attempt further interventions in US domestic politics
3) At the same time, it’s important to note that Medvedev – and not Putin – delivered this message. In previous operations, such as the 2016 attack on the US electoral system, Putin publicly offered his крыша (roof, or political protection) for the intervention campaign (see his September 2016 interview with Bloomberg, for instance). Putin’s non-appearance likely signals that actions are not imminent.
4) The statement’s timing is significant. With the US (likely?) facing potential domestic terror attacks on January 17th, January 20th, and beyond, Putin is signaling potential leverage within the United States.
5) This letter reflects the Kremlin’s insecurity. Putin’s Russia is wracked with COVID, a slow vaccine roll-out, economic and financial dislocations, and growing foreign policy challenges. Moreover, Putin’s political position is increasingly uncertain amid parliamentary elections, the return of Navalny, and an increasingly restless elite.
6) By making Medvedev the face of this letter, Putin hopes to divide his potential domestic and international opponents.
Through 2018 and 2019, The Report noted Medvedev’s tenuous place in the Collective Putin; Medvedev was ultimately ousted from his PM position in early 2020. Putin has ample reasons to doubt his former PM’s devotion: Medvedev was sympathetic to the 2011-2012 Bolotnaya Square protesters and is one of the least anti-Western political figures in Russia.
Putin likely choose Medvedev to deliver this warning because 1) it could draw Western sanctions to one of the least anti-Western figures in Putin’s orbit and 2) could bind a potentially wayward figure to the regime.
Russian diplomat says some of Trump’s supporters curious about Russian citizenship – TASS
“According Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, such messages are coming from those who supported the Republicans who fear possible persecution because of their political views.”
2. Russian and Chinese vaccine roll-outs appear to be in trouble
“On January 6, President Xi Jinping replied to Howard Schultz, Honorary Chairman of the Board of Directors of Starbucks Corporation of the United States, encouraging him and Starbucks to continue to play an active role in promoting Sino-US economic and trade cooperation and the development of bilateral relations.”
Comment: This is clearly meant to signal an olive branch to the United States and the incoming Biden administration. I suspect that the olive branch is partially or even largely motivated by China’s vaccine roll-out problems.
Chinese president on global vaccine cooperation – People’s Daily
“During his phone conversation with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in November 2020, Xi said China stands ready to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with Germany on COVID-19 vaccines and push for the vaccines to be fairly distributed as a global public good, especially for the benefit of developing countries.
Speaking at the 12th BRICS summit in November that also gathered leaders from Russia, India, South Africa and Brazil, Xi said China has designated its own national vaccine R&D center and will work with other BRICS countries both online and offline to advance collective vaccine research and trials, set up plants, authorize the production and recognize each other's standards.
At the general debate of the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly in September, Xi said at the moment, several COVID-19 vaccines developed by China are in Phase III clinical trials. When their development is completed and they are available for use, the vaccines will be provided to other developing countries on a priority basis.”
Comment: The People’s Daily Chinese and English-language editions haven’t neglected China’s vaccines, exactly, but they have emphasized collective vaccine research responsibility and uncharacteristically avoided chest-thumping triumphalism. Bill Bishop also points out that PRC state leaders do not appear to have taken China’s own vaccines (Putin doesn’t appear to have taken the Russian vaccine, incidentally). If the PRC thought it *had* developed a highly effective vaccine, there is every reason to believe that state media would trumpet it.
New Brazil data shows disappointing 50.4% efficacy for China's CoronaVac vaccine – Reuters
“A coronavirus vaccine developed by China’s Sinovac Biotech was just 50.4% effective at preventing symptomatic infections in a Brazilian trial, researchers said on Tuesday, barely enough for regulatory approval and well below the rate announced last week.
The latest results are a major disappointment for Brazil, as the Chinese vaccine is one of two that the federal government has lined up to begin immunization during the second wave of the world’s second-deadliest COVID-19 outbreak.”
Comment: The Brazilian health authorities *might* have gotten this wrong.
China's Sinovac to double annual COVID-19 vaccine capacity to 1 bln doses – Reuters
Turkey's Erdogan receives [Sinovac’s] COVID-19 vaccine - Reuters
Philippine president meets with Chinese FM on enhancing bilateral cooperation
“China understands that vaccines are badly needed in the Philippines and has decided to donate a batch of doses to the Philippines, [Foreign Minister Wang Yi] said. At the same time, China will give guidance to Chinese companies to carry out vaccine purchasing cooperation with the Philippine side as soon as possible, Wang added.”
Two senior managers from one of China’s top vaccine companies have resigned – CNBC (Jan 15)
“[Sinopharm] cited personal reasons for Li Zhiming’s resignation, according to a filing for the Hong Kong-listed company. Li Hui, a director and audit committee member of Sinopharm subsidiary China National Medicines Corp. also resigned Tuesday due to personal reasons, a separate filing disclosed…”
Comment: Sinopharm (distinct from Sinovac) reported a ~80% efficacy rate in its UAE trials, although it faced criticism for withholding detailed data.
Disappointing Chinese Vaccine Results Pose Setback for Developing World – NYT
“The [disappointing results] could be significant for a vaccine that is crucial to China’s global health diplomacy. At least 10 countries have ordered more than 380 million doses of CoronaVac, though regulatory agencies have yet to fully approve it.”
Chinese COVID-19 vaccines gain more intl recognition – People’s Daily
“Smear from the Western media outlets, especially after Brazilian authorities revealed a 50.4 percent efficacy rate in CoronaVac's late-stage trials, is also a huge hurdle that prevents many people in the West from viewing Chinese vaccines in an objective and scientific way, Chinese observers noted. While hyping up doubt over CoronaVac's late-stage data, mainstream English-language media mentioned little about the deaths of 23 elderly Norwegian people after they were vaccinated with Pfizer vaccines as if those media outlets had already reached a consensus to downplay the incident.”
Why were US media silent on Pfizer vaccine deaths?: Global Times editorial – People’s Daily
“Twenty-three elderly Norwegian people died after receiving Pfizer vaccines. Thirteen of them have been assessed and common side effects may have contributed to severe reactions in them, according to the Norwegian Medicines Agency. Norway is a small Northern European country and only about 25,000 people have been vaccinated with Pfizer vaccines. Twenty-three deaths are a large number. But surprisingly, mainstream English-language media did not report the incident immediately, as if they had already reached a consensus. Major US and UK media were obviously downplaying their deaths.
In terms of the COVID-19 vaccines, Chinese society and the Chinese government have regarded science and objectivity as priorities. In a practical and realistic manner, China has squarely faced the reality that Chinese vaccines lacked sufficient data. Chinese COVID-19 vaccines have been put on the market but are conditional. Vaccination priority will be given to high-exposure populations between 18 and 59 years old, not the elderly. No senior Chinese official has come out to openly endorse Chinese vaccines.”
Comment: The whataboutism here reveals further anxiety about China’s domestic vaccines. “US and UK media” are reporting extensively on the issue and the Pfizer results will be transparent (see below).
For that matter, how on earth do Chinese vaccines lack sufficient data after *months* of trials? And why won’t they share the data?
““However, Norwegian officials maintain they are not alarmed and have advised individual doctors to decide who should receive a vaccine. Pfizer said they are investigating the deaths but added that "the number of incidents so far is not alarming, and in line with expectations…
"We are not alarmed by this. It is quite clear that these vaccines have very little risk, with a small exception for the frailest patients," Steinar Madsen, medical director with the agency, said, according to ABC News. "Doctors must now carefully consider who should be vaccinated. Those who are very frail and at the very end of life can be vaccinated after an individual assessment," he added.”
Brazilian healthcare watchdog declines request for emergency use of Sputnik V vaccine – TASS
“The Brazil National Health Surveillance Agency (Anvisa) declined the request to approve the Russian-made Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use in Brazil. According to the watchdog, the request does not comply with the minimal criteria for this task.”
Comment: Brazilian regulators issued adverse findings for both Russian and Chinese vaccines this week. This could reflect Brazil-specific causes, as Bolsonaro has taken an increasingly anti-vax line.
Third Russian coronavirus vaccine to enter civilian circulation by March – expert – TASS
“The COVID-19 vaccine developed by the Chumakov Federal Scientific Center for Research and Development of Immune and Biological Products of the Russian Academy of Sciences may enter civilian circulation in March 2021, the Center’s Deputy Director General for Project Activities and Innovation Konstantin Chernov told Vesti Nedeli news program on Rossiya-1 TV channel.”
Authorities don’t exclude new wave of coronavirus in Moscow, Deputy Mayor says – TASS
“Moscow authorities don’t exclude the emergence of another wave of the coronavirus after winter holidays, Deputy Moscow Mayor Anastasia Rakova stated on Friday… The deputy mayor added that so far Moscow hasn’t planned on delivering medicines to other regions of the country, there were no requests of this kind.”
Nearly Half of Russian Regions Have Limited Access to Coronavirus Vaccine – Report – Moscow Times
Mass inoculation of Russians against coronavirus to begin on January 18 – TASS
“Mass vaccination of Russians against the coronavirus will be launched on Monday, January 18, Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova reported at a meeting with leading epidemiologists and virologists on Friday. "The country’s president announced a mass vaccination beginning on Monday, that is, on January 18, 2021," she said. The deputy prime minister reiterated that two domestic vaccines have been registered in Russia so far, while the third one is "getting closer."”
Comment: Cynics will wonder why *Deputy* Mayors and *Deputy* Prime Ministers are becoming the public face of Russia’s COVID response.
Mass coronavirus vaccination campaign begins in Russia – TASS
“Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova said that about 2.1 mln coronavirus vaccine doses would be released for civil distribution before the end of January.”
Comment: 2.1 million doses is won’t vaccinate even 2% of the Russian population, leading some Russian politicians to propose withholding export doses.
Russia Says It Has Vaccinated 1.5M. Some Experts Think the Numbers Don’t Add Up. – Moscow Times
“Data analyst Alexander Dragan — who has been tracking Russia’s coronavirus statistics closely and was one of the first to accurately highlight the country’s probable massive undercount of virus deaths — said Russia’s patchy data points not to the claimed 1.5 million completed vaccinations since the public campaign was launched at the beginning of December, but fewer than 300,000. “Russia claims 1.5 million people have been vaccinated. There is one problem: it is not clear who,” Dragan said. “The national data is strikingly different from the regional level.””
3. Putin’s domestic political challenges
Navalny Returns to Moscow and Is Arrested on Arrival – NYT
“Aleksei A. Navalny, the Russian opposition leader who recuperated in Germany from a near-deadly poisoning, returned to Moscow on Sunday and was arrested shortly after leaving his plane.”
‘Meet Me,’ Alexei Navalny Wrote – Sam Greene for Moscow Times
“Having evidently tried and failed to kill Navalny once, assassination can’t be ruled out, but it would be rather blatant. A jail sentence ahead of parliamentary elections later this year, moreover, could only be interpreted as a signal that the Kremlin is actually afraid of the threat Navalny poses. Leaving him free to operate, though, runs the risk of making those elections even more difficult for United Russia than they are already likely to be. In other words, none of the Kremlin’s options are good.”
Comment: Greene notes that Putin’s approval ratings stand near all-time lows.
Russian lawmakers rush to tighten legislation ahead of the 2021 State Duma elections - Meduza
“The laws on campaigning online will affect parliamentary candidates directly: these grant Russia’s federal and regional election commissions the right to block websites or publications through Roskomnadzor (the Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media) without a court order, if election officials find that they contain signs of illegal campaigning or violations of electoral legislation. These bills also encompass calls from bloggers to support a particular candidate or party. The authors behind this initiative envision that such publications from online media and blogs must be paid for by election funds, as with publications in traditional media…
These are the first large-scale restrictions on online campaigning in Russia: previously, the net was relatively free space.“
Key economic themes of 2020 – Ivan Tkachev for Riddle
“During the peak of the first COVID-19 wave in April and May, economists feared that Russia’s GDP would fall by 8–10% by year end. However, the non-working days throughout April and part of May remained the lowest points for economic indicators. When lockdown restrictions were lifted, the economy began to improve… By 25 December, Minister of Economic Development Reshetnikov said the economy might shrink by 3.8%.... The Bank of Russia and the International Monetary Fund forecast a GDP decline of around 4% by the end of 2020, the Accounts Chamber of Russia predicts 4.2% while the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development anticipates a drop by 4.3%.”
Russia Economic Report – World Bank
“The unemployment rate increased from 4.6 percent in October 2019 to 6.3 percent in October 2020 – the highest in eight years… Social policies put in place in light of the pandemic seem to have blunted the impact on poverty. The national poverty rate increased from 12.3 percent at the end of 2019 to 12.6 percent and 13.2 percent in Q1 and Q2 of 2020…
Risks are firmly tilted to the downside.”
Putin signs law reinforcing former presidents’ immunity – TASS
“Under the new law, the State Duma must press charges of treason or other grievous crime, while the compliance with the procedure must be confirmed by the Supreme and Constitutional Courts.”
“The Kremlin wants to take no chances, it seems. The recently passed law on the absolute immunity of former Russian presidents demonstrates that the Russian authorities are seriously preparing for a variety of scenarios: the sudden illness and incapacitation of Vladimir Putin; a sharp decline in his popularity; and the preservation of Putin as president for a very long time. The adoption of this legislation does not mean that Putin is going to leave soon. Rather, it is just an additional safety net for the possible extension of his presidency to 2036. The 2021 parliamentary elections will be held on time, and the 2024 presidential election—barring a force majeure—will run as scheduled too, most likely with Putin’s participation.”
4. China-Russia interactions
Xi Jinping speaks on the phone with Russian President Putin – People’s Daily [Chinese-language]
“In times of crisis, the unique advantages and value of Sino-Russian relations have become more prominent. The two sides have watched and helped each other, overcome the difficulties together, and continued to firmly support each other on issues concerning each other's core interests, reflecting the high level of mutual trust and friendship between the two countries…
Xi Jinping emphasized that China-Russia relations have strong endogenous power and independent value, which are not affected by changes in the international situation and are not interfered by any other factors.“
Comment: Top article in 人民日报。 Interesting emphasis on economy/trade (and politics) over defense ties.
Telephone conversation with President of China Xi Jinping – The Kremlin
“The leaders praised bilateral ties, stating that they have reached the highest level in history and are truly beneficial to both sides…
In light of the 20th anniversary of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation Between the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China in 2021, the presidents reaffirmed their shared intention to further promote cooperation in all areas, including the implementation of major joint projects on energy and industrial cooperation. They paid special attention to the cross years of Russia-China scientific, technical and innovation cooperation to be held in 2020–2021.”
Comment: Note Putin’s emphasis on energy trade.
Question: China and Russia have been supporting and helping each other since the outbreak of COVID-19. How would you describe the current China-Russia relations?
Wang Yi: In 2020, China-Russia relations have stood the test of a once-in-a-century pandemic and unprecedented global changes, and reached a historic high in all respects.
Intensive interactions between the two heads of state. President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin have had five phone calls and exchanged correspondence on multiple occasions, providing the most important strategic guidance for the steady growth of the bilateral relations.
Closer coordination on international affairs… The two countries have extended mutual support on issues concerning each other's core interests and stood side by side against power politics, which further underscores the global significance of China-Russia relations.
The year 2021 is a year of special importance for China-Russia relations, as both countries will enter a new development stage. In developing China-Russia strategic cooperation, we see no limit, no forbidden zone and no ceiling to how far this cooperation can go.[bolded by The Report]… Being each other's strategic anchor, diplomatic priority, development opportunity and global partner, the two countries will expand and deepen cooperation from a higher starting point. Together, China and Russia will continue to be the example of good-neighborly and friendly relations between major countries, add impetus to global recovery, and underpin global strategic stability.”
[Zhao asked this question at the Valdai forum as well. Relevant edition of The Report is here]
“Since China’s military strength does not exceed that of Russia, the Sino-Russian alliance will not be an alliance of unequal partners, and neither side will be suppressed. However, objectively, the comprehensive power balance will be tilted towards China. The Sino-Russian alliance will be an alliance of allies, not of friends. It will be based on common interests, not affection.[bolded by The Report]
The conclusion is simple. China and Russia should maintain a strategic partnership, take full use of the possibilities it contains, and leave the door to alliance open. The two countries should not set limits on their strategic choices. Under the condition that international situation continues to deteriorate, China and Russia’s strategic and military security threats are likely to increase. At a certain critical point, the alliance may become a practical need for China and Russia.” [bolded by The Report]
A disrupted world to embrace more challenges in post-pandemic era – People’s Daily
“Big-power influence plays a significant role in determining the prospect for regional growth, but the rivalry between major countries, experts warn, will drag on or even become more intense in Eurasia in 2021.”
“China and Russia will continue to be the example of good-neighborly and friendly relations between major countries, add impetus to global recovery, and underpin global strategic stability, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said…
Being each other's strategic anchor, diplomatic priority, development opportunity and global partner, the two countries will expand and deepen cooperation from a higher starting point.”
“Chinese State Councilor and Minister of Defense Wei Fenghe and Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu formally signed the "Regarding the Extension of October 13, 2009" between the Government of the People’s Republic of China and the Government of the Russian Federation on the mutual notification of the launch of ballistic missiles.
This is an important sign of Sino-Russian special relations [中俄特殊关系的重要标志]”
Comment: Striking use of “special relations,” but this isn’t the first use of “中俄特殊关系” in Chinese state media
Russian, Chinese strategic bombers carry out joint air patrol in Asia-Pacific region – TASS
“Two Russian Tu-95MS and four Chinese H-6K strategic bombers carried out the second joint air patrol over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced on Tuesday.”
Comment: South Korea prefers to call this body of water the East Sea.
China, Russia criticize US sanctions – People’s Daily
“Cheng Guoping, the Foreign Ministry's external security commissioner, said the China-Russia comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership in the new era, as led by President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, has reached a record high and is a model for a new type of great power relations. The two leaders have engaged in frequent contacts through video links and telephone conversations. The bilateral relationship manifests strong dynamism and serves as a strong pillar amid a changing global landscape, Cheng said when meeting with Russian Ambassador to China Andrey Denisov on Dec 3.”
China-Russia Natural Gas Pipeline Starts Work on Final Stretch to Shanghai - Yicai
“Gazprom will not sell gas from Yamal to China cheap, but endlessly and stubbornly delaying progress on new routes today could lead to losses of market share in the future. In conditions of swiftly growing competition by gas suppliers for the Chinese market, one might cautiously predict that we could hear news about the Power of Siberia project within 2021.” [bolded by The Report]
Comment: There also appears to be a typo at the end – presumably we could hear news in 2021 about the Power of Siberia *2* project. I’m skeptical that Power of Siberia 2 will progress, although the authors make a persuasive argument.
“For Putin, a far-off and uncertain threat from a more powerful China is more acceptable than the immediate and certain threat he perceives from Washington.
For its part, Beijing may downgrade its relationship with an unpredictable and increasingly dependent Moscow in the long term… The downturn in U.S.-China relations is likely to endure, raising the likelihood of Chinese approval of aggressive Russian tactics against the United States.”
Comment: Did Beijing approve of the Medvedev op-ed in TASS? Was Beijing informed?
Until next time,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.