Putin’s strategy in Ukraine runs through Western elections
To thwart Putin – and save the climate – the West must be willing to raise oil production for several years.
Vladimir Putin seeks to prevail in Ukraine by securing the victory of pro-Kremlin figures in key Western elections. The elevation of explicitly authoritarian figures in Germany and other critical states could sap Western support for Ukraine; lead to the dissolution of NATO; and dramatically slow down the energy transition, which poses grave risks to Russian energy exports of oil, gas, and coal.
Consequently, Putin will continue to intervene in Western elections, especially via economic instruments. Putin seeks to spike energy prices and inflict economic costs on Europe and North America, damaging the performance legitimacy of constitutional democracy and improving the electoral prospects of Kremlin-curious or even explicitly authoritarian candidates. Since the future of constitutional democracy depends on satisfying the material desires of non-ideological voters, Washington and other Western capitals must expand crude oil production as rapidly as possible.
Moscow is hunkering down
Moscow’s actions demonstrate it is settling in for a long war in Ukraine. The Kremlin is banning conscripts from fleeing Russia and preventing any would-be draft dodgers from accessing banking, property, or even a driver’s license. The Russian defense ministry, meanwhile, has proposed expanding the size of the armed forces by 30 percent – even as Russia’s economy faces sanctions-inflicted woes, an exodus of professionals, and increasingly poor demographics.
Moscow’s threat to extend the war is a credible one.
Russian armed forces have been mauled by Ukraine’s military, including during the spectacular rout in Kharkiv, but Moscow continues to enjoy several advantages. Despite their vast equipment and personnel losses, Russian armed forces remain formidable. Moreover, Putin and his military commanders have shown no hesitation in using their forces, especially mercenary battalions, like cannon fodder. Moscow can conduct military operations for a long time.
Nor is Putin likely to face any significant domestic political opposition, barring an epochal (and highly unlikely) military defeat, such as the mass surrender of Russian forces, or the loss of Crimea.
Indeed, ubiquitous digital surveillance have made coups and revolutions a thing of the past – at least in authoritarian countries. Dictatorships in Belarus, China, Venezuela, and, of course, Russia itself have put down popular protests due to facial identification, social media targeting, and other internet surveillance tools. Except for Syria (which lacked adequate surveillance infrastructure), autocratic regimes have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to suppress popular demonstrations with surgical precision, imprisoning and torturing dissident leaders while deterring, distracting, or dissuading the less committed.
In a reversal of conditions in the latter half of the 20th century, autocracies are insulated from domestic pressures while democracies are susceptible to pro-autocracy movements.
German elections
The Kremlin’s domestic political security enables it to cultivate pro-Kremlin movements in key Western countries, including Germany.
The Kremlin is attempting to weld far right and far left extremist parties together in Germany, in the hopes of disrupting NATO and ending Western support for Ukraine. Sahra Wagenknech of the Die Linke party, which has roots in Communism, is apparently being cultivated by Russian intelligence, according to reporting on the Discord links. Similarly, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, which has links to neo-Nazis, is receiving extensive support from Moscow.
Extremists could very well come to power. AfD enjoys the support of 15 percent of German voters; Wagenknecht could garner up to 24 percent of the national vote. Moreover, additional economic pain from high energy prices and inflation could bolster the AfD and Die Linke in Germany’s next elections, which must be held on or before October 2025.
There is a real fear that economic pain could ultimately lead to the dissolution of NATO. Indeed, French President Macron’s recent comments in Beijing about acting autonomously from the United States likely reflect his fear that key Western countries could be undermined insidiously, from within, by voters angry over high inflation and slow economic growth.
Use American energy power to save constitutional democracy and the climate
To prevent the rise of pro-Kremlin figures in Germany and beyond, President Joseph Biden and other Western leaders must use all available instruments to ensure that energy prices – especially consumer fuel prices for diesel and gasoline – are capped ahead of Germany’s 2025 elections.
A large swathe of voters care more about their personal living standards than they do about abstract values, such as the rule of law.
Consequently, the West must bolster energy production to ensure voters in Germany and elsewhere back constitutional democracy.
In the United States, President Biden must incentivize domestic crude oil producers and oil refiners to expand production, especially in the near term.
The US’ most urgent energy priority is to reduce the amount of bureaucratic time spent on project review. Accordingly, President Biden and Republicans should work together to jumpstart permitting reform.
The administration should also firmly commit to a floor on US crude oil prices and agree to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR, at levels of $72/barrel. Indeed, the administration should double the SPR’s capacity; it should also continue to support US crude oil exports.
Finally, in refinery markets, the administration should ensure that global capacity continues to expand, including by encouraging key idled domestic refineries to reopen.
These measures would credibly signal to US producers that drilling for oil would be economically viable for years to come and restrain world energy prices, strengthening the performance legitimacy of democracies in Germany and elsewhere.
Some environmentalists will question the utility of increasing short term oil production. The alternative is far worse.
A few years of heightened oil production could very well decide if constitutional democracy lives or dies. Alternatively, accepting high energy prices for the next two years could lead to the elevation of populists and autocrats via elections, who will have little-to-no inclination to reduce emissions.
Decarbonization demands the survival of constitutional democracy.
The US and other democracies must increase energy production in the near term to ensure that pro-Kremlin figures don’t rise to power via elections in Germany and elsewhere.
Joseph Webster is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and edits the China-Russia Report. This article represents his own personal opinion.