Putin’s surprise military exercises along the Ukrainian border
Why, and why now?
Putin is consciously escalating military tensions along the Ukrainian border. Severe skirmishes have broken out across the line of contact, Russian forces are massing on the border, and Russian-backed forces in Ukraine have received advanced weaponry, including artillery. As the US and Russian military chiefs of staff held a telephone call, the US and Ukraine engaged in intensive consultations. The US Secretary of State called his Ukrainian counterpart and “affirmed the United States’ unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea.”
There are more questions than answers at this point. Why hold the exercises, and why now? Did Lavrov raise the exercises during his visit to Guilin last week? Did Putin seek/receive tacit or explicit permission from Beijing? Why has the GRU seemingly become more aggressive in its military intelligence collection efforts in recent weeks, as evidenced by recent expulsions of Russian intelligence officials in Bulgaria and Italy? Putin’s intentions are unclear, according to Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military:
Here are some possible motivations for the exercises, arranged from most to least likely. Phenomena and motivations are always multi-causal, of course, and it’s very possible that this analysis is missing a key element(s).
1) The exercise is meant to pressure Europe (including Ukraine) and the United States. The exercises occur a day after a trilateral phone call over Ukraine between President Macron, Chancellor Merkel, and Putin, and as the US prepares possible sanctions against the Putin regime. It’s possible that Putin believes he can drive a wedge between the Euro-Atlantic alliance over Ukraine or, failing that, indirectly harm the Ukrainian reform program. The Kremlin would be pleased with either of those outcomes. On the other hand, it’s possible that Putin’s actions actually strengthen Euro-Atlantic cooperation and spur anti-corruption efforts in Kyiv.
2) Putin may be exploiting a moment of opportunity. The EU’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign has been rather lackluster, oil prices are relatively high, and the US/EU have openly expressed disappointment at Ukrainian President Zelensky’s foot-dragging on anti-corruption reforms. President Biden, for instance, has not yet called his Ukrainian counterpart.
3) Putin may be externalizing domestic political insecurity. More economic dislocations are likely coming, Russia’s COVID-19 cases in the latest wave might be substantially underreported, the Sputnik V vaccine may not be as effective as thought, Putin may be alarmed at possible protests, etc. Putin may provoke a Ukraine crisis for domestic political purposes, distracting from bad news and stimulating nationalist sentiments ahead of the fall Duma elections.
Other factors at play within Russian’s opaque political system may be at play. Putin built Sistema, is a highly skilled and determined political operator, and has unique and unparalleled insight into Russian domestic politics. His actions may reflect information or assumptions unknown or unavailable to the outside world.
4) Technical or tactical reasons that are Ukraine-specific. For instance, Putin may be signaling support for Viktor Medvedchuk, a pro-Putin Ukrainian politician who was sanctioned in February for “financing terrorism.” This is a theory from the very sharp Michael Carpenter, although I’m skeptical that Putin would run this level of risk for Medvedchuk and his confederates. Similarly, Putin may be facing pressure from his Donbas proxies.
Putin could also be concerned about Crimean water dynamics: the occupied peninsula is known to be suffering from severe water shortages. The Russian government has supposedly figured out technical workarounds to relieve the shortages – but they also presumably wouldn’t advertise a potential weakness, either.
5) Raising tensions over Ukraine may seek to divert attention from a PRC military assault on the ROC’s outlying islands. While Putin and the CCP likely don’t and won’t explicitly coordinate their military activities for a variety of reasons, this possibility can’t be dismissed.
If Western-Russia tensions over Ukraine rise it’s conceivable that the PRC might seek to opportunistically exploit any chaos and attempt to seize outlying islands from the PRC – with or without consulting Putin.
Ukraine
US officials raise concern about rising Russian-Ukrainian tensions – Military Times
John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, said the U.S. government was aware of reports from the Ukrainian military of Russian troop movements on the eastern border, but he offered no details. Kirby said the Russian escalations include violations of a July 2020 ceasefire, brokered by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, that led to the deaths of four Ukrainian soldiers in the eastern part of the country on March 26 and the wounding of two others. The Ukrainian military said the four were killed in a mortar attack it blamed on Russian troops. Russia denies having a military presence in the region. The State Department said Blinken expressed condolences for the losses.
Hot or Not? – Bear Market Brief Ukraine
Comment: Highly recommend Bear Market Brief
Rising Tensions in Ukraine Are Not Necessarily a Prelude to Renewed ‘Hot’ War – Sarah Lain for RUSI
As the situation deteriorates at the frontline, there is always the danger of a serious eruption in hostilities and escalation. But it is more likely that each side is trying to provoke the other into committing further ceasefire violations…
The situation in eastern Ukraine is clearly worrying. Yet rather than immediately pointing to a deliberate escalation or large-scale attack, it is likely for now that violence will continue to intensify, but remain localised. Both sides have incentives to accuse each other of spoiling for a fight. Yet initiating a return to full-scale war would be very damaging for both sides, and inflict even higher economic damage on top of the severe difficulties caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
NATO, the Russian military, and Russian military intelligence
Moscow offered to restore military contacts within Russia-NATO Council – TASS
"Our colleague Mr. [NATO Secretary General Jens] Stoltenberg states that Russia is refusing to work in the Russia-NATO Council. But we are not refusing to work, simply we do not want to sit there and hear about Ukraine," Russia’s top diplomat said.
"NATO has no relation to Ukraine and they always insist when they suggest holding the Russia-NATO Council that Ukraine should be the first issue. We sat and listened on a pair of occasions and we know all about that. That is why, we suggested restoring contacts between the militaries in order to save this comprehensive agreement on security that was concluded in Helsinki. They are refusing to do that," Lavrov pointed out…
However, NATO member states "are flatly refusing even to discuss military confidence measures we have proposed, including the proposal to agree on the pull-out of drills from the contact line to an agreed distance, to agree on the maximum approach distance for aircraft and ships, they are simply refusing to discuss that," Russia’s top diplomat said.
Kremlin hopes apprehension of Russian diplomat not to affect relations of Moscow, Rome – TASS
On Wednesday, Russian Embassy in Italy confirmed that an employee of the military attache’s office was apprehended in Roma, adding that the circumstances of the incident are being investigated.
Italy Expels Russians After Spies 'Caught Red-Handed' – Moscow Times
Italy expelled two Russian officials on Wednesday after an Italian navy captain was caught red-handed by police selling secret documents to the Russians. The Italian frigate captain was arrested on spying charges after officers tailing him saw him late Tuesday in Rome in a "clandestine meeting" with a Russian military officer, according to a police statement.
Bulgaria: Six arrested over 'Russian spy network' – DW
Bulgarian prosecutors said Friday they had charged six Bulgarians, including several senior officials in the defense ministry and in military intelligence, with espionage. At least five former or current members of the Bulgarian military were arrested, said Siyka Mileva, spokeswoman for the general prosecutor. The investigation was of "special significance" for the national security of Bulgaria, the EU, NATO and the United States, general prosecutor Ivan Geshev told the press.
How an alleged Russian spy ring stole NATO and EU secrets from Bulgaria – CNN
“Russia routinely denies allegations of spying in Bulgaria. Last year, Sergei Ivanov -- spokesman for Russia's foreign intelligence service -- accused US intelligence services of launching a campaign against people in eastern Europe who wanted good relations with Russia. Bulgaria, he told Russian media, had become the epicenter of this campaign…
But if Bulgarian prosecutors are right, the Kremlin regards Bulgaria as an inviting target -- a back door into intelligence about NATO and the European Union, and weapons reaching Ukraine.”
Comment: The espionage incidents in Italy and Bulgaria are *potentially* highly significant. The military spy rings may have become more aggressive in their intelligence collection efforts due to an urgent requirement from Moscow. If so, the GRU’s willingness to sacrifice some collection capabilities could indicate that major actions are imminent.
On the other hand, there are a variety of other potential explanations: i.e. maybe NATO counterintelligence proved skillful or got lucky, a NATO capability within the Russian security services was at risk of exposure and had to be activated immediately, the exercises are an elaborate test of NATO capabilities and policymakers, etc.
Michael Kofman and Brian Whitmore on The Power Vertical Podcast
Crimean water issues
What’s up with the Crimea water crisis? (EXPLAINER) – Kyiv Post
In 2014, when Russia invaded and then illegally began occupying the peninsula, Ukraine shut off the water supply through the North Crimean Canal. It led to water shortages, exacerbated by the driest seasons in over a century. Crimean cities periodically have disconnections of water supply, sometimes receiving water only for two hours a day.
Water supplies problem in Crimea to be resolved by summer, authorities say – TASS (March 17th)
According to [Crimea’s envoy to the Russian president] Muradov, a lot of facilities are now under construction to supply water to the areas which have problems with it. "New wells are being developed. Dams will be built to collect water from Crimean rivers. If necessary, desalting plants will be built, especially in southern districts, which receive many tourists. It is necessary to spare the travel sector from problems," he added.
Comment: Muradov may be lying about Crimea’s water supplies, in which case the Kremlin might be trying out military diplomacy to resolve its water issues.
“Earlier this month, it was revealed that one of the reservoirs in the Crimean capital, Simferopol is almost running dry. This came two months after authorities in the seaside resort of Yalta announced that water would be restricted to just six hours a day. “The reserves of water in the Simferopol reservoir are almost depleted,” said Vladimir Bazhenov, the head of Crimean Water, calling the inflow “infinitesimal.” In 2020, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin revealed that the federal government would spend 5 billion rubles ($64.5mn) to fix water supply issues.”
Comment: Russian state media has largely shied from discussing Crimea’s water supply, for whatever reason.
Crimea’s Water Crisis Is an Impossible Problem for Putin - Clara Ferreira Marques for Bloomberg
When asked whether Ukraine's position on water for Crimea is tough, Kuleba answered: "Absolutely! Absolutely tough. Water will appear after the end of the occupation."
Chinese perspectives on recent developments
“Delegates from China came to gauge the peninsula’s tourism potential,” Crimea’s Tourism Ministry reported on its website on March 11, 2021, promoting a visit by a supposed Chinese delegation that Russian news outlets have described as both “official” and “representative.” The pro-Kremlin media has touted the trip as a sign of the new prospects for Crimea-Chinese economic cooperation, but almost no one in Beijing has even heard about the visit. That’s probably because the three delegation members were actually businessmen from wholesale markets in Moscow, not China.
On the afternoon of March 26th, Fan Xianrong, the ambassador to Ukraine, met at the appointment with Ms. Magaretskaya, Director of Ukraine’s National Food Safety and Consumer Protection Agency. Economic and Commercial Counselor Zhao Li of the Embassy attended the meeting.
Comment: Ukraine exports significant (but not large) volumes of agricultural products to China.
The Sixth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, as the only party's national congress held abroad in the history of the Communist Party of China, has written a strong mark. In 1928, at a difficult time when the Chinese revolution was at a low ebb, 142 representatives of the Communist Party of China, with the help of the Soviet people and the Communist International, risked their lives and broke through all obstacles, traveled thousands of miles to Moscow, and convened the Sixth National Congress of the Communist Party of China…
At present, Sino-Russian relations are in the best period in history. China and Russia are each other's most important and important strategic cooperative partners. The China-Russia relationship is a pair of major powers with the highest degree of mutual trust, the highest level of cooperation, and the highest strategic value. This year the two countries will take the opportunity of celebrating the 20th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Russian Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation, review the original intention of the Sino-Russian treaty of friendship and win-win cooperation from generation to generation, continue to expand and deepen the all-round cooperation between the two sides, and set an example for the good-neighborliness and friendship of major countries, inject impetus into the recovery of the world economy, build a pillar for global strategic stability, jointly promote the construction of a new type of international relations, and actively build a community with a shared future for mankind.
We firmly believe that under the strategic planning and guidance of the two heads of state, China-Russia relations will always ride the wind and waves along the correct course, continue to move to new heights, achieve new results, and write a new chapter.
中共六大作为中共历史上唯一一次在境外召开的党的全国代表大会，书写了浓墨重彩的一笔。1928年，在中国革命处于低潮的艰难关头，142名中国共产党代表在苏联人民和共产国际帮助下，冒着生命危险，冲破重重险阻，远涉万里来到莫斯科，召开了中共六大。。。
目前，中俄关系正处于历史最好时期。中俄互为最主要、最重要的战略协作伙伴，中俄关系是互信程度最高、协作水平最高、战略价值最高的一对大国关系。今年两国将以庆祝《中俄睦邻友好合作条约》签署20周年为契机，重温中俄世代友好、合作共赢的缔约初心，继续扩大和深化双方全方位合作，为大国睦邻友好作出表率，为世界经济复苏注入动力，为全球战略稳定打造支柱，共同推动建设新型国际关系，积极构建人类命运共同体。
我们坚信，在两国元首的战略擘画和引领下，中俄关系将始终沿着正确航向乘风破浪，不断迈向新高度，取得新成果，书写崭新篇章。
Comment: Somewhat curiously, this was published in the People’s Daily, for domestic audiences.
Until next time,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan weekly newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.