Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s regime faces its most serious internal threat in over two decades. The opposition is holding massive rallies protesting falling living standards, the government’s lack of accountability, Lukashenko’s slapstick COVID response, etc. Further complicating matters, Lukashenko has fallen ill with COVID (although he appears to be recovering).
Belarus directly impacts Russian interests but is only a secondary concern for Beijing, which appears to be taking a hands-off approach to the crisis. Nevertheless, China’s Ambassador to Belarus, Cui Qiming, went on Belarusian state radio to deliver an address on Xi Jinping Thought. Cui’s vague statement doesn’t appear to have much specific relevance for the crisis: he may have conducted the interview just to remind Lukashenko, the Belarusian opposition and Putin that China’s interests must be protected. Russia also seems to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, as Putin seems to have little incentive to intervene – at the moment. Putin’s calculus could change if Belarus adopts a pro-Western orientation and/or if Lukashenko’s position erodes. Putin could become alarmed if Minsk’s protests spread and/or are sustained beyond the summer protest season.
Gennady Rudkevich’s piece in the Moscow Times (titled: A Color Revolution in Belarus? Not Yet.) is the best analysis of the Belarus situation I’ve read. Rudkevich writes that “With tens of thousands taking part in opposition rallies across the country, might this election signal the end to Lukashenko’s rule? In short, no, at least not for now… [ed. note from The Report: attendance at the latest opposition rally fell dramatically]
Lukashenko is slowly but surely losing public and elite support. Absent large-scale repression, he will find it harder and harder to stay in power as his structural advantages grow weaker and structural flaws accumulate. A coronavirus-scale failure a few years down the line might be his last.”
Rudkevich also wrote a thoughtful Twitter thread to supplement the article:
“On a brief aside: Putin won't invade Belarus. There's not enough space here to go into all the reasons, but suffice it to say the cost would be high and the benefits will be low. Putin is better off watching this from the sidelines and using the result as negotiating leverage.”
I’ve been relatively more concerned about a Belarus absorption than most other observers of Russia. Due to changing circumstances, however, the more it seems that Putin won’t seek a “small, victorious war” by absorbing Belarus – for now.
New data (as well as Rudkevich’s persuasive analysis) has changed my mind. First, Putin’s decision to seek a “constitutional” “referendum” eliminated a Union State between Russia and Belarus as a potential instrument for prolonging his rule. Second, (and most importantly) the COVID crisis has constrained Putin’s freedom of maneuver both domestically and internationally. Putin is increasingly beset by falling trust ratings, noisy protests in the Far East, declining median living standards, an increasingly restive elite, etc. He is extremely sensitive to domestic politics, and there is little to no enthusiasm among the Russian elite or populace for another expensive foreign entanglement. Third, recent events in Belarus have confirmed there is no groundswell of Belarusian elite or popular support for a Russian takeover. There appear to have been no Russian flags at opposition rallies, the Belarusian security services have arrested Russian citizens, and Lukashenko sees domestic political benefits in asserting Belarusian sovereignty. This isn’t Crimea 2014: there is no small but vocal minority calling for Russian intervention. From Putin’s perspective, the costs of intervention in Belarus almost certainly outweigh the benefits – at least for now.
Changing circumstances could alter Putin’s calculus in future months, however. Putin might intervene in Belarus if 1) he regards it as tilting too far to the West; 2) Moscow can install a more pliant figure in Minsk at acceptable costs; or 3) if Belarusian protests continue to grow. Putin is highly suspicious of mass movements and fears they could spread to Russia.
Finally, there are even more signs that the PRC will dominate Central Asia. After a Chinese nationalist historian penned an article claiming that the Pamir Mountains were rightfully China's, the Tajik Foreign Ministry summoned the Chinese Ambassador. Tajikistan has ceded territory to China before and is highly dependent on its giant neighbor. While the PRC may be physically advancing in, Russia’s footprint is receding: Moscow announced it would consider more restrictions on foreign migrant laborers (presumably because of elevated domestic unemployment in Russia).
These recent developments only compound Central Asia’s woes. COVID continues to rage, export earnings are buffeted by soft energy prices – and now the PRC may be sniffing around for more territory while Russia threatens to further reduce remittances. While the whole region is under pressure, public health, economic, and social risks are particularly acute in Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. Adam Smith once wrote that there is a great deal of ruin in a nation. Turkmenistan and Tajikistan are testing that proposition.
1) Belarus
2) China-Belarus
3) Russia-Belarus
4) Democracies and Belarus
5) China-Russia
6) Russian domestic politics
7) Central Asia
Belarus and Lukashenko’s COVID idiocy
President Lukashenko almost certainly has COVID: he would be foolish to admit weakness unless it was absolutely necessary.
The most likely reason that Lukashenko has been stricken with COVID is because he insisted on holding public events during a pandemic. According to his own public calendar, Lukashenko has held at least 18 public events over the past month. It’s extremely likely that he contracted COVID during one of these meetings he conducted with hundreds or even thousands of individuals. The person most responsible for Aleksandr Lukashenko’s infection is Aleksandr Lukashenko.
Photo from president.gov.by/en/
Comment: This is from August 4th, 2020. No physical distancing and few masks among the 2,500 members of the Belarusian elite in attendance - although it’s possible but unlikely that all attendees were COVID-tested prior to entrance. Within a couple of weeks, dozens or even hundreds of Belarusian elites in this photograph could be sick or dying because of this event.
Leaving aside the morality of Lukashenko’s insistence on holding a mass gathering during a global pandemic, does a major COVID outbreak among Belarusian regime elites further his own political interests? If there are more protests in the post-election period he will need all the allies he can get.
“More than 2,500 people from all over the country attended the event. Traditionally, it was attended by members of the House of Representatives and members of the Council of the Republic, the top-ranking officials of the country, members of the government, heads of state administration bodies, local authorities, MPs of past convocations, representatives of public associations, church, diplomatic corps and international organizations, heads of banks, higher educational institutions, media, and experts.
Aleksandr Lukashenko pointed out that Belarus is located in the very center of Europe and is a full-fledged participant of all the main international processes. The country is connected with strong trade and economic ties with all the regions of the world.”
Comment: Belarus is at the “very center of Europe” = Lukashenko single-handedly resolving the age-old “Is Russia European?” dilemma
Embattled Lukashenko Loses Friends in East and West - Artyom Shraibman for Carnegie Endowment
“Something very unusual is unfolding in the run-up to Belarus’s presidential election on August 9. President Alexander Lukashenko has accused Russian puppet masters of interference, and has in turn been criticized by the EU and United States for arresting those “puppets.” Consequently, the election threatens to ruin Minsk’s relationship with both Moscow and the West, just at a time when the dire state of the country’s economy means it is in serious need of external support.”
Lukashenko says he regards Putin as his elder brother – TASS
“"I regard Putin as my elder brother, and I sincerely believe that he is my brother," Lukashenko told Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon in a TV interview. "Not in the sense one in command as a senior and the other is junior. He is really like an elder brother in terms of age and [political] weight… An elder brother’s role is to help, support and advise. Not to make you stumble, but to provide support."
…
He stressed that he had never experienced pressure from the Russian leader, though. "He has never made attempts to put pressure on me. He’s been well aware that this would be totally useless," Lukashenko said. "I will always agree to compromise, but when it concerns the country, or if I see that it is not fair, it will be unacceptable to me." Lukashenko said that although he also regarded Putin as his friend, some of their discussions might turn very emotional from time to time. "We are very good friends despite the rifts that may occur. I hope that we remain friends in the sense that I am free to say everything that I believe must be said. Just as the other way round," Lukashenko said. "We may even drop a strong word in once in a while in a manly talk. But there has never been any yelling. I mind my manners in this respect, and Putin is not in the habit of every raising his voice at all."”
Belarusian president says union state with Russia impossible – TASS
“"It is impossible," Lukashenko said. "Even if I agreed to the reunification on the most favorable terms for Belarus, the people of Belarus would not accept it. The nation is not ready for this and will never be. The people are overripe," he noted.
"It was possible 20 or 25 years ago when the Soviet Union collapsed," Lukashenko believes. "But not now," he stated.”
Lukashenko: US passport holders among those detained in Belarus ahead of election – TASS
"Mass media are ringing alarm bells that the Americans and NATO seek to capture us. Some people were detained with US passports, who were married to American women working for the Department of State." Lukashenko added that "it doesn’t matter if they are Americans, the State Department staff or belong to <...> the Democratic Party." "I think the Americans will start defending them now. Nothing of the kind," he went on. "Money blinds, making one just green of this money: the one who pays gets backing. That’s the only answer. We have a lot of such people."
The Belarusian leader gave no details on who had been apprehended.
On July 29, the Belarusian law enforcement agencies detained spin doctor Vitaly Shklyarov, who had consulted Belarusian opposition activists. Shklyarov was born in Belarus but lived in the US for several years. His wife and child are US citizens. According to some media reports, he also has a US passport and his wife is working for the US Embassy in Kiev.”
““To be honest, we do not know what they are capable of. We do not even know who they are: Americans with the NATO, or someone from Ukraine or our eastern brothers show ‘their affection' towards us this way. A hybrid war is going on against Belarus and we should expect dirty tricks from any side, which we actually do,” Aleksandr Lukashenko emphasized.
The president noted that he is closely following the election campaign. In his view, a great number of people took advantage of the early voting opportunity because they got alarmed and realized that they could lose the country. “Some keep urging people to take to the streets on 9 and 10 August. God forbid we will make a fire in the center of Minsk and will throw about chars all over Minsk. We cannot let it happen and we will not,” Aleksandr Lukashenko emphasized.”
Lukashenko postones state of the nation speech as health fails – bne Intellinews
“However, it now appears the president’s health has suffered more than he first thought. He appeared at another meeting last week with a catheter visible in one arm and complained he was “hot” during the meeting.”
Comment: Lukashenko only delayed the speech. His health seems to be improving as of this writing.
“Aleksandr Lukashenko noted: “I've invited you to look into the matter of this, one can say, emergency that happened this night. There is no other word for it.”
Aleksandr Lukashenko asked KGB Chairman Valery Vakulchik to describe the situation in more detail. The Belarusian head of state noted: “I've been looking at how the Russians respond to it. As they make excuses, they go nearly as far as saying we've brought them here on our own. It is clear they need to justify their dirty intentions in some manner. This is why I would like to ask you that everything must be extremely sincere and honest in this situation and with regard to this fact. If those are Russian citizens (as far as I can understand they've been questioned), it means we should immediately contact the relevant authorities of the Russian Federation so that they could explain what's going on.””
Belavia extends suspension of flights to Russia till 14 August – TASS
Comment: The electoral event is scheduled for August 9th although the protests will last longer. Expect more flight suspensions. This measure isn’t necessarily taken to keep Russians out – it could be meant to keep dissenting Belarusians inside the country. Some members of the Belarusian opposition have fled to Russia, and it’s quite possible that neither Minsk nor Moscow wants a Belarusian exile community in Russia.
Belarus to increase social pensions on 1 August – Belta
Comment: Right before the election, in what can only be a coincidence.
Belarus and Russia
Lukashenko focuses on ties with Russia, world situation, pandemic in address to the nation – TASS
“Moscow will always be the closest ally of Minsk no matter who is in power, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in his address to the nation and the parliament ahead of the Sunday’s presidential election, also focusing on the situation across the globe and on the coronavirus pandemic among other issues. He criticized Russia for opting in favor of ‘partnership’ relations instead of ‘fraternal’ ones. Meanwhile, Russia itself is afraid of ‘losing Belarus’ since it has ‘no truly close allies left,’ the president believes.”
“To many commentators, however, this family of explanations is problematic. Those nearly three dozen Wagner fighters were not apprehended along with ammunition and had on them external Russian passports—which would not have been needed to enter Belarus. If they were, indeed, saboteurs, their entire operation was organized with almost surreal sloppiness. Why would almost the entire group, recognizable by their military outfits, settle in a single suburban sanatorium? The independent Belarusian military analyst Alexander Alesin has argued that the theory the militants arrived to subvert the Belarusian authorities is the least plausible. Aleksandr Golts and Pavel Felgenhauer, two Russian opposition-minded military analysts, interviewed by Radio Liberty, agree. Golts contended that President Vladimir Putin is ill-disposed to toppling dictators and thinks the Russian authorities’ official explanation—that the mercenaries were in Belarus in transit to another country—is credible.”
The Russian Side of the Murky Story in Belarus - Pavel K. Baev for Jamestown Foundation
Military experts in Moscow agree that Minsk was, for a long time, a convenient hub for transporting “Wagners” to various exotic destinations—except to Syria, where the military logistics are provided by the state. They also argue that the Belarusian secret services were obviously monitoring this channel, which means it would have been senseless for Russia to try to use it for “dirty purposes” (in Lukashenka’s words) by bringing to Minsk a large group of men dressed in military-style fatigues with badges proclaiming “Death Is Our Business”
Russians detained in Belarus were first from 180-200-strong group, Lukashenko claims – TASS
“The Belarusian president called on law enforcers not to get tough with the detained Russian nationals. "They [the Russians - TASS] are certainly guilty, but not so much that some tough measures should be taken against them. They are soldiers. They were given orders and off they went. We have to deal with those who were giving orders and who were sending them in here," he said.”
Comment: More evidence that Lukashenko concocted the mercenary narrative and is signaling security folks in Belarus and Russia not to take his rhetoric at face value.
Zyuganov: Belarusian people are wise to make the right choice – Belta
“According to [leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation] Gennady Zyuganov, Belarus has preserved fundamental industries, efficient management and personnel. “Belarusians need to continue this policy. The Belarusian people are prudent enough to make the right choice. You have been moving in the right direction all these years. Yes, there have been difficulties, problems. Crises affected your hard-working country, too, but you have gone through them with fewer losses,” he said.”
Comment: Zyuganov is part of the systemic opposition in Russia, but also shows signs of independence from time to time. Not sure if this signals Kremlin support for Lukashenko or not.
Russian Foreign Ministry calls on Minsk to stop escalating negative emotions – TASS
Russian embassy in Belarus cleared to visit detained Russians – TASS
“The Belarusian Foreign Ministry demanded explanations from Russian Ambassador Dmitry Mezentsev regarding the aims for the apprehended Russians' arrival in the country. The ministry also invited acting head of the Ukrainian embassy in Minsk Pyotr Vrublevsky "considering the confirmed information that some detainees were fighting in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Lugansk regions." Following the meeting, the sides agreed to boost monitoring over the border section between the two states.
Meanwhile, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that Moscow was yet to receive full information about the events, including any illegal actions that prompted the detentions. According to him, Moscow does not recognize Ukrainian citizenships of some of these people.”
Moscow calls for cooperation with Minsk over detained Russians - ambassador – TASS
“Russia calls for a speedy release of the Russian nationals detained in Belarus and urges close cooperation with the Belarusian law enforcement agencies and the lawyers on the case, Russia’s Ambassador in Minsk Dmitry Mezentsev told reporters on Saturday. "We insist that our citizens be released as soon as possible and that we closely cooperate with the Belarusian law enforcement agencies and lawyers," the Russian ambassador said.”
Comment: “Russia’s Ambassador in Minsk Dmitry Mezentsev” – not Russian Ambassador to Belarus?
Russian ambassador, Belarusian interior minister discuss detention of Russian nationals – TASS
“Russian Ambassador to Belarus Dmitry Mezentsev said on Friday he had discussed the situation around the detained Russian nationals with the Belarusian interior minister.”
Comment: Ok, back to “Russian Ambassador to Belarus Dmitry Mezentsev”
China and Belarus
“习近平外交思想传承发扬了新中国反对殖民主义、霸权主义、强权政治的正义立场,在涉及国家主权和领土完整的重大问题上划出红线、亮明底线,果断采取一系列坚定维权措施,坚决捍卫国家核心利益与民族尊严。”
“Xi Jinping’s diplomatic thought inherited and carried forward the new China’s just stand against colonialism, hegemonism, and power politics, and drew a red line on major issues involving national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and resolutely adopted a series of firm rights safeguarding measures to resolutely defend National core interests and national dignity.”
Comment: The only part of the article I could find that potentially had relevance to the Belarus situation. Cui’s rather dry discussion of Xi Thought does little to clarify China’s position on the crisis. Indeed, that may be his intention. It may be worthwhile to revisit Perry Link’s China: The Anaconda in the Chandelier, published in 2002.
“Normally the great snake doesn’t move. It doesn’t have to. It feels no need to be clear about its prohibitions. Its constant silent message is “You yourself decide,” after which, more often than not, everyone in its shadow makes his or her large and small adjustments—all quite “naturally.””
Cui’s ambiguity encourages Lukashenko, the Belarusian opposition, and Putin to consider their actions on Chinese interests – all without explicitly saying or demanding anything. This approach enables a flexible response and allows the PRC to avoid upsetting any actor it might need to work with later.
“关于提醒自白俄罗斯中转第三国回国的中国籍乘客根据要求做好核酸检测的通知” (same as headline above)
Great Stone Industrial Park – Republic of Belarus
“The idea of setting up the Chinese-Belarusian industrial park was put forward in 2010. The idea was first voiced during a visit of China Vice President Xi Jinping (now head of state) to Belarus in March 2010. [emphasis from The Report] In October 2011 the governments of Belarus and China signed the agreement to set up the industrial park (it was ratified by the parties and came into force on 30 January 2012). Decree of the Belarusian president No. 253 on the Chinа-Belarus Industrial Park (5 June 2012) established a special legal status of this territory. On 12 May 2015 during the state visit to Belarus Chinese President Xi Jinping toured the construction site together with Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko and called it "a pearl of the Silk Road".
China-Belarus industrial park to possibly get seven new resident companies by year end – Belta
“Seven new resident companies may be established in the China-Belarus industrial park Great Stone… At present the park is home to 63 resident companies. The declared volume of investments exceeds $1 billion. More than ten countries are represented in the capital of these resident companies, including Belarus, China, USA, Switzerland, and Germany. 70% of the companies focus on manufacturing. They operate in various spheres: electronics, mechanical engineering, new materials, pharmaceutics, and production of medical goods. Some residents focus on R&D and projects in the sphere of services.”
Minsk holds groundbreaking ceremony for new football stadium, swimming pool – Belta
“The [national soccer or, less correctly, “football”] facilities will be built with the help of China's technical and economic assistance… China will earmark about $240 million for the construction of the facilities.
Chinese Ambassador to Belarus Cui Qiming noted that Belarus and China are good partners and friends who trust each other. “Comprehensive strategic partnership, mutual trust and mutually beneficial cooperation between China and Belarus are maintained at the highest level. Both countries are true all-weather partners who strongly support each other on the issues affecting the main interests and key problems,” the ambassador said.”
The Curious Timing of the Chinese Loan to Belarus – China Observers (from January 2020)
Shunned by West and Wary of Russia, Belarus Gets Help From China (from 2019) – New York Times
Democracies and Belarus
“President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a telephone conversation with President of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko.
The heads of state discussed in detail the issues related to the detention of a group of persons belonging to Wagner private military company on the territory of Belarus at the end of July. The importance of further effective interaction between the competent authorities of the two states was stressed, in particular for the purpose of the transfer to Ukraine of the persons suspected of terrorist activities on the territory of our state.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed his conviction that those involved in the actions of illegal groups in Donbas will not be able to avoid fair punishment.
"I hope that all suspects in terrorist activities on the territory of Ukraine will be transferred to us for prosecution in accordance with the current international legal documents," the Head of the Ukrainian State said.”
Lukashenko gives interview to Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon - Belta
Comment: Gordon and Lukashenko shook hands after a 2.5 hour interview in close quarters, guess Gordon isn’t afraid of catching COVID from Lukashenko, rightly or wrongly.
How elections in Belarus could impact Ukraine – Bear Market Brief Newsletter
“There are certain parallels between the events in Ukraine in 2013-2014 and the 2020 elections in Belarus, which may indicate the inevitability of changes in the Belarusian state,” writes Anna Medvedeva of the New Europe Center. “Alexander Lukashenko, like Viktor Yanukovych of his time, does not realize that society has changed and does not want to tolerate authoritarian rule.”
Comment: George Kent, the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, says that the United States and Belarus may exchange ambassadors for the first time since 2008.
Belarus, Poland discuss regional initiatives – Belta
““The conversation was initiated by the Polish side. The ministers discussed a wide range of issues related to the development of Belarusian-Polish cooperation, Belarusian and Polish proposals to implement a number of regional initiatives,” the press service said. Vladimir Makei informed his Polish counterpart about the preparations for the presidential election in the Republic of Belarus.”
Comment: Poland and Belarus have enhanced military and energy cooperation in recent months.
China-Russia
Sputnik Reporter: Russian President Putin plans to visit China this fall. Is the itinerary of this visit affected by the novel coronavirus? Have you set a specific date for your visit to China?
Zhang: 。。。俄罗斯是中国最重要的战略伙伴,对俄关系是中国外交优先方向。两国最高领导人交往是中俄关系的战略引领和核心驱动。中方欢迎普京总统访华
“… Russia is China's most important strategic partner, and relations with Russia are China's diplomatic priority. The exchanges between the top leaders of the two countries are the strategic guidance and core drive of China-Russia relations. China welcomes President Putin's visit to China.”
Sputnik: At the end of June, Gazprom stated that it was negotiating with its Chinese partners to increase the supply of the eastern route, the China-Mongolia-Russia natural gas pipeline (Siberian Force 2) and the western route project. Is China interested in increasing supply on the Eastern Route? What is the scale? At what stage are the Sino-Mongolian-Russia gas pipeline negotiations now?
Zhang: 相信双方将继续本着互利共赢的原则,根据相关技术和商务条件,进一步协商推进后续具体事宜。中俄能源合作不是一朝一夕的,而是立足长远、着眼未来的。中国天然气市场潜力巨大,我们支持双方企业就有关能源合作项目开展积极务实商谈,也期待双方取得更多合作成果,造福两国和两国人民。
It is believed that both parties will continue to negotiate and advance specific follow-up matters based on the principle of mutual benefit and win-win results, based on relevant technical and business conditions. China-Russia energy cooperation does not happen overnight, but rather stands on the long-term and looks to the future. China's natural gas market has huge potential. We support the companies of both sides to carry out active and pragmatic discussions on energy cooperation projects, and we also look forward to more cooperation results for the two countries and their peoples.
Comment: Zhang warning Russia/Gazprom that they won’t subsidize the gas flows. Also the second question Sputnik asked.
Sputnik: Has the bilateral trade volume between China and Russia dropped sharply due to the epidemic? Is there any plan to increase the trade volume to 200 billion US dollars? After the epidemic, which areas of China-Russia economy, trade and investment are expected to resume growth?
Zhang: According to Chinese statistics, in the first half of 2020, Sino-Russian trade volume was US$49.16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%. Among them, China's exports to Russia were US$20.94 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; imports from Russia were US$28.22 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%.
The epidemic has led to the rapid development of new trade formats and models such as cross-border e-commerce. With the continuous expansion of market access between the two countries, agricultural products have become a new bright spot in bilateral trade. The valuable experience of the two countries' cooperation in fighting the epidemic will further promote cooperation in emerging fields such as biomedicine and technological innovation.
Sputnik: If the Chinese vaccine experiment is successful, will they discuss with Russia the possibility of purchasing vaccines from China?
Zhang: Once the vaccine is successfully marketed, China has the ability to provide safe, effective, and high-quality vaccines to the world. It will not use its own technological advantages to seek certain benefits when countries around the world are suffering from COVID.
Comment: Not a lot of confidence from Sputnik about Russia’s Gamaleya vaccine (see below).
Sputnik: In addition to inviting China to attend the arms control negotiations in Vienna at the end of July, the United States also suggests that China and Russia hold meetings as soon as possible on the next steps to study the trilateral arms control negotiations. Is China considering holding a meeting with Russia on trilateral arms control negotiations?
Zhang: China has no intention to participate in the so-called "China-US-Russia Trilateral Arms Control Negotiation",
In another setback to China, Russia suspends deliveries of S-400 missiles: Report – Hindustan Times
“Post-Russia’s announcement, China has reportedly said that Moscow was forced to make such a decision as it “is worried that the delivery of S-400 missiles at this time will affect the anti-pandemic actions of the People’s Liberation Army and does not want to cause trouble to China.””
Russia prepares joint investment projects for China worth $20 blb – TASS
US urged to exploit cracks in Russia-China relationship – FT
Comment: FT reporting that 1) Lavrov skipped the Belt and Road Forum; 2) the 160th anniversary of the founding of Vladivostok angered Chinese netizens.
Russian domestic politics
Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov announces receiving rank of Major General – TASS
“"I took the announcement of this decision as I was supposed to: standing at attention. During the phone call, the President himself read the order and congratulated me with this event, wished me further success. It is a high praise that is worth a lot," Kadyrov wrote on his VK page Thursday. The promotion order was not published. Kadyrov also disclosed that he was transferred from the Ministry of the Interior to the Russian National Guard.”
Russia Plans to Roll Out Mass Covid-19 Vaccinations From October – Bloomberg
Comment: Early vaccine development is a very high risk/high reward proposition for Putin: if the “Gamaleya” vaccine is successful, Putin will gain some domestic legitimacy. On the other hand, a failed vaccine would compound all his problems. Also note (from one of the articles above in the China-Russia section) that the Sputnik reporter asked the Chinese Ambassador if China would share its vaccine.
There is a very high probability that the PRC has obtained blueprints to this vaccination. It’s noteworthy that they seem to have little interest in producing Gamaleya, at least for now.
Protesting Putin: Kremlin faces revolt in the regions – FT
Central Asia
China business briefing: Unclear borders, uneasy neighbors – Eurasianet
“So when Wang hailed progress “successfully resolving boundary issues left by history and turning the common boundary into a symbol of friendship and a bond of cooperation,” he was reassuring his counterparts in adjoining Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Not for long. Days later, an article appeared in Chinese news outlets claiming that Tajikistan’s Pamir mountains historically belonged to China and should be returned. Though the article was penned by a nationalist historian and does not appear to be a veiled hint from the Party, the message hit Dushanbe in a sensitive spot. Tajik officials are perennially concerned about the Pamirs, a region where they have tenuous authority over the local population.
And anxieties about China’s intentions in Central Asia run deep. It takes little to fuel fears that post-Soviet sovereignty will be a short-lived affair, that the peoples of Central Asia have traded one imperial master only to be dominated by another. Already in 2011, Dushanbe ceded over 1,000 square kilometers of the Pamirs to China in return for an unspecified amount of debt forgiveness. Five years later, it invited China to open a military base. Beijing owns over half of Tajikistan’s foreign debt…
… [the Chinese article calling for acquisition of the Pamir] has since disappeared from major Chinese blogging platforms such as Baidu.”
Procedure to obtain work permit in Russia may become more complex for migrants – TASS
“The procedure to obtain Russian work permit for migrants may become more complicated, this possibility is being currently discussed, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia Dmitry Medvedev stated on Monday during a meeting on pressing problems of law and order in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Comment: A sign of 1) rising domestic unemployment in Russia and 2) perhaps fears over the efficacy of Russia’s Gamaleya COVID vaccine. Also a sign that Russia won’t/can’t compete for hegemony in Central Asia.
Turkmenistan: Hiding from satellites – Eurasianet
“With hospitals long past having overfulfilled capacity, things are taking a firmly Darwinian turn. On July 28, Amsterdam-based Turkmen.news reported on how at an infectious diseases hospital outside Ashgabat, relatives of patients admitted for pneumonia – probably coronavirus-induced – are being made to pay around $56 daily for family members to be linked up to a ventilator. To be clear, this is a bribe, and anybody who cannot afford it is in trouble.
The coronavirus pandemic is even forcing the government to put its long-term industrial plans on hold. The most notable among these being the trans-Afghan TAPI natural gas pipeline. [Emphasis from The Report] This much was admitted on July 27, during a video-conference meeting of representatives from project participant nations. One conclusion reached during that exchange was that work would be “activated” once the pandemic is over. Since Turkmenistan is so mysterious about its own health crisis, however, it is difficult to understand how anybody will know when and if that has happened.”
Until next time,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.