Russian forces pushed out of Kherson
China, Russia, launch a cross-Heilongjiang railway bridge
I don’t have commentary in this very brief update. I’ll be watching the ROC’s elections on the 26th.
The war
How Was Russia Able to Launch Its Biggest Aerial Attack on Ukraine? – NYT
Western and Ukrainian officials have said Moscow’s stockpile of missiles was dwindling. But the assaults this week raise questions about that.
Ukraine has momentum. What it needs now are munitions – The Economist
The liberation of Kherson on November 11th was not the end of the war. Russia still occupies the 70% of Kherson province that is east of the Dnieper river, not to mention swathes of next-door Zaporizhia, and Donetsk and Luhansk in the east.
Ukraine confronts tougher fight in push to extend battlefield wins – Washington Post
Comment: Any future Ukrainian progress will likely resemble Kherson’s slow-moving siege rather than the rapid advance seen around Kharkiv.
The US has intelligence that Russia may have delayed announcing its withdrawal from the Ukrainian city of Kherson in part to avoid giving the Biden administration a political win ahead of the midterm elections, according to four people familiar with the intelligence.
Comment: This seems a little overblown. As one source in the article noted, the overwhelming majority of Americans are not following the day-to-day progress of the war, while Russian forces feinted withdrawing weeks earlier.
Comment: Kofman thinks it’s likely that the war will last at least another year; he also worries that a future Ukraine-Russia conflict (or a resumption of the current conflict, after a brief armistice) is a significant risk. The second half of the show is particularly interesting.
It’s Costing Peanuts for the US to Defeat Russia – Timothy Ash for CEPA
These sums pale into insignificance when set against a total US defense budget of $715bn for 2022. The assistance represents 5.6% of total US defense spending. But Russia is a primary adversary of the US, a top tier rival not too far behind China, its number one strategic challenger. In cold, geopolitical terms, this war provides a prime opportunity for the US to erode and degrade Russia’s conventional defense capability, with no boots on the ground and little risk to US lives.
…
If we divide out the US defense budget to the threats it faces, Russia would perhaps be of the order of $100bn-150bn in spend-to-threat. So spending just $40bn a year, erodes a threat value of $100-150bn, a two-to-three time return.
Comment: This article raises some interesting points, although I’m doubtful that it’s possible to calculate the “return on investment.” The conflict is damaging Europe’s economy, which could have implications for the Indo-Pacific.
Negotiations over the war
Europe and China
US warns Europe a conflict over Taiwan could cause global economic shock – FT
Sharing of research comes amid rising concern about military action in the Indo-Pacific
Macron says China’s ability to pressure Russia is ‘extremely useful’ – FT
Xi able to use partnership with Putin to warn him against nuclear option in Ukraine, French president claims
Comment: There appears to be little harm in pressing Beijing to do more, although I am skeptical these efforts will lead the CCP to do anything it wasn’t already planning to do. If the West is going to try to convince Beijing to pressure Moscow, it’s perhaps better that European leaders spearhead these initiatives.
Macron urges more cooperation with China on Ukraine, Beijing sticks to stance – Reuters
France's presidency said on Tuesday that it was crucial Paris and Beijing cooperated more closely to overcome the consequences of the war in Ukraine after Emmanuel Macron met Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a summit in Indonesia.
Dutch Minister Says US Can’t Dictate Approach to China Exports – Bloomberg
The US shouldn’t expect the Netherlands to unquestionably adopt its approach to China export restrictions, a senior Dutch official warned, signaling a potential obstacle to the Biden administration’s trade fight.
Taiwan
Comment: Smart thread, worth your time.
China and Russia Political Interactions
Putin was not mentioned by name, but Beijing edged away from Moscow at the G20 summit, leaving Russia increasingly isolated.
‘A remarkable job’: how Russia and China buckled in the face of a united G20 – FT
Economic hardship from Ukraine invasion helped sway the developing world to isolate Moscow
China-Russia Economic Interactions
China refiners slow down Russian oil purchases as sanctions near – trade – Reuters
Chinese refiners are slowing down Russian crude purchases in December and paying lower premiums in the face of imminent European Union sanctions and uncertainty surrounding the G7's plan to cap Russian oil prices, trading sources said.
China becomes top exporter to Russia as sanctions hit Moscow’s trade with EU – FT
Country’s goods imports during summer months down 24% year on year, according to Kiel research
Russia, China launch traffic on the first-ever railway bridge across Amur River – TASS
Russia and China launched traffic on the first-ever railway bridge across the Amur River at the interborder section Nizhneleninskoye-Tongjiang, the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) said in a press release on Wednesday…
The bridge part of the Nizhneleninskoye-Tongjiang railway crossing is 2.2 km long. The bridge is designed as a turn-based passage for trains along the track of two standards with a width of 1,520 mm (Russia) and 1,435 mm (China). The maximum throughput of the bridge will be up to 20 million tons of cargo per year.
Comment: Notice that TASS emphasizes the different rail gauges on both sides of the bridge: the different standards will continue to slow traffic and, at the margins, constrain bilateral trade. Also, Russia has been very, very slow to construct its portion of the bridge (see below).
A Chinese-Russian Regional Program Ends With a Whimper – Ivan Zuenko for Carnegie Moscow (from 2018)
At the border, nothing happens quickly. Implementing projects has often taken more than a decade because of financing difficulties and bureaucratic foot-dragging. Construction of the Blagoveshchensk-Heihe bridge began only in March 2016, although the first transnational agreement on the bridge was signed in 1995. Plans for the Nizhneleninskoye-Tongjiang railway bridge were initiated in 2007, and a construction agreement was signed six years later. China completed its section of the bridge in 2016, and Russia began construction only in 2017 due to financing delays.
The Russian Economy
Russia’s Road to Economic Ruin – Konstantin Sonin of University of Chicago for Foreign Affairs
Russia will emerge from the war with its government exercising authority over the private sector to an extent that is unprecedented anywhere in the world aside from Cuba and North Korea. The Russian government will be omnipresent yet simultaneously not strong enough to protect businesses from mafia groups consisting of demobilized soldiers armed with weapons they acquired during the war.
v/r,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.