Russian troops massed along Ukrainian border
Naval Exercises, Valdai
Even circumspect observers of the Russian military are sounding the alarm over recent troop deployments and movements along the Ukrainian border. According to Michael Kofman: “I think there is a developing situation, and it could turn into something significant. Yes, in the winter (like 2015). Not in the next few days, but weeks/months. Overall, I don't think you're seeing a drill or regular training.”
Like Kofman, I’m highly skeptical that Putin seeks to significantly escalate in the next few weeks amid out-of-control COVID hospitalizations, lockdowns, and a fragile economic recovery. While Putin might attempt small-scale coercion in the very near-term, a significant military escalation in Ukraine would very likely result in substantial military casualties and sanctions at a time when he already faces severe domestic challenges. While Crimea’s water supply remain a key uncertainty, Putin will be highly reluctant to substantively escalate in Ukraine until Russia’s COVID economic/public health crisis stabilizes.
Russia and China conducted combined naval exercises around Japan. More on that below, and in a future edition. The two sides have also reframed the terms of cooperation, with the People’s Daily claiming that interaction has reached “unprecedented heights” (前所未有的高度). The PD previously described cooperation as “unprecedentedly high level” (前所未有的高水平). China is expanding its security presence in Central Asia and apparently has been operating from a secret base for some time. I’ve also included some highlights from Putin’s annual Valdai session. Thanks for reading.
Table of Contents:
1) Ukraine
2) Valdai
3) China-Russia Military
4) China and Europe
5) China-Russia Politics and Economics
6) Russia and the Indo-Pacific
7) Central Asia
8) Russia-India-China (RIC) and NAM
1) Ukraine
Russian troop movements near Ukraine border prompt concern in U.S., Europe – Washington Post
A renewed buildup of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border has raised concern among some officials in the United States and Europe who are tracking what they consider irregular movements of equipment and personnel on Russia’s western flank.
CIA director dispatched to Moscow to warn Russia over troop buildup near Ukraine – CNN
President Joe Biden dispatched CIA Director Bill Burns to Moscow earlier this week to warn the Kremlin that the US is watching its buildup of troops near Ukraine's border closely, and to attempt to determine what is motivating Russia's actions.
‘Cheap fake news’: Kremlin castigates US claims of Russian ‘military buildup near Ukraine’ – TASS
"It is not even worth commenting on the quality of these reports and generally such news should be ignored. The reports talk about the border with Ukraine, yet they show the border with Belarus. The quality itself serves as perfect proof that time should not be wasted on getting acquainted with such cheap fake news," the Russian presidential spokesman said, commenting on an article published in the US-based Politico media outlet.
The movements of Russian military equipment and troops inside the country is solely Moscow’s internal affair, Peskov stressed.
COVID, Climate, And Tension In The Donbas – discussion w/ Mark Galeotti on RFE/RL
2) Putin – Valdai
Putin at Valdai – Valdai Discussion Club
Putin: We look in amazement at the processes underway in the countries which have been traditionally looked at as the standard-bearers of progress. Of course, the social and cultural shocks that are taking place in the United States and Western Europe are none of our business; we are keeping out of this. Some people in the West believe that an aggressive elimination of entire pages from their own history, “reverse discrimination” against the majority in the interests of a minority, and the demand to give up the traditional notions of mother, father, family and even gender, they believe that all of these are the mileposts on the path towards social renewal.
…
This, I believe, should call to mind some of what we are witnessing now. Looking at what is happening in a number of Western countries, we are amazed to see the domestic practices, which we, fortunately, have left, I hope, in the distant past. The fight for equality and against discrimination has turned into aggressive dogmatism bordering on absurdity, when the works of the great authors of the past – such as Shakespeare – are no longer taught at schools or universities, because their ideas are believed to be backward. The classics are declared backward and ignorant of the importance of gender or race. In Hollywood memos are distributed about proper storytelling and how many characters of what colour or gender should be in a movie. This is even worse than the agitprop department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. [Comment: Big, if true]
Countering acts of racism is a necessary and noble cause, but the new ‘cancel culture’ has turned it into ‘reverse discrimination’ that is, reverse racism. The obsessive emphasis on race is further dividing people, when the real fighters for civil rights dreamed precisely about erasing differences and refusing to divide people by skin colour. I specifically asked my colleagues to find the following quote from Martin Luther King: “I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the colour of their skin but by their character.” This is the true value. However, things are turning out differently there. By the way, the absolute majority of Russian people do not think that the colour of a person's skin or their gender is an important matter. Each of us is a human being. This is what matters. [Comment: Cynics will suggest that there is quite a gulf between Putin’s rhetoric and actions. More importantly, note what Putin is trying to communicate, and to whom.]
…
Fyodor Lukyanov: We started talking about NATO. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was interviewed just two days ago, and he announced that NATO is adjusting its strategic vision somewhat, and now views Russia and China as one common threat rather than two threats. This is an interesting approach, apparently a far-reaching one. But if this is how they see us, maybe it is time for us to unite with China and consider someone else as a threat?
Vladimir Putin: We have said many times that we are friends with China, and not against anyone else, but in each other’s interests. This is the first point. The second point is, as distinct from NATO, from the NATO countries, we are not creating a closed military bloc. There is no Russia-China military bloc and we will not create one now. So, there is no reason to talk about this.
…
Christian Whiton (Senior Fellow for Strategy and Trade at the Center for the National Interest, former Senior Advisor for Strategic Communications at the State Department under Trump): Hello, Fyodor. Great. Thank you so much for calling on me, and thank you for Valdai, for organising this important conference. President Putin, I really appreciate your important comments, which I do not think we have heard from any other world leader, about culture and its importance. One person here in the United States that might be interested and supportive of what you have said is former President Donald Trump. I am not certain about that, but he has spoken of similar things. My question for you is that there is a lot of speculation that former President Trump may again run for office in 2024, and you have spoken about Angela Merkel, for example. What do you think about the idea of a second Donald Trump presidency?
Vladimir Putin: Would you vote for him? (Laughter.) I am not kidding. Where is the joke? Please help us. Would you vote for Donald Trump as a presidential candidate in the United States of America?
Christian Whiton: I am sorry, I thought you were asking President Putin. Yes. My view, and I worked in the Trump administration at the State Department, early in his administration. I think it is remarkable. He has redefined conservatism, perhaps, along some of similar lines that President Putin talked about healthy conservatism. However, in our system, if you begin a second term, you are essentially a lame duck, in that you cannot run again, so people start discounting you. Also I like what Donald Trump does in challenging the vocal minority that has infected our culture, but on the other hand his administration had a lot of inefficiencies, if you will, staff in very senior levels that did not agree with his agenda. Sometimes it seemed like the authority of his presidency did not extend beyond the White House to the rest of the very large US government. So my preference is that other conservatives step up like Ron DeSantis, the Governor of Florida, step up and run for President. But if it is a choice between Donald Trump and a Democrat, I would vote for Donald Trump, yes.
Vladimir Putin: If you allow me, I would prefer to keep my point of view on this matter to myself and refrain from commenting on what you have just said. Otherwise, you will have to register as a foreign agent. (Laughter.) However, I do understand your idea. Thank you very much for your participation.
Comment: A notable exchange. Putin famously (or infamously) is highly cognizant of electronic surveillance: he reportedly brought a hand-written speech to the 2015 UN General Assembly. I wonder if Putin had advance knowledge of Whiton’s question. I also believe it’s fair to raise questions about Whiton’s intentions. Whiton is a former State Department official and presumably aware of the signals collection capabilities of Russian security services.
No questions from Chinese audience members – a sharp departure from last year’s discussion when Yan Xuetong asked if it was “possible to conceive of a military alliance between China and Russia?”
3) China-Russia Military
Pacific Fleet vessels hold missile firings in Sea of Japan – TASS
The Varyag missile cruiser belonging to the Pacific Fleet and the Admiral Tributs large anti-submarine ship held anti-aircraft missile firings in the Sea of Japan, the Fleet’s press office reported on Monday.
With China's advanced Type 055, a 10,000 ton-class large destroyer, for the first time joining an exercise with a foreign navy, China and Russia on Thursday kicked off a joint naval drill in the Sea of Japan, in a move that Chinese experts said not only displays the two sides' high level of strategic mutual trust, but also will enhance their capability to jointly deal with maritime security threats and safeguard regional peace and stability, at a time when Western countries are building antagonistic regional security organizations like the Quad and AUKUS.
…
During the drill, which is a normal and annually scheduled arrangement but is also held amid many profound changes and the pandemic, the Chinese and Russian navies will practice communications, sea mine countermeasures, air defense, live-fire shooting at maritime targets, joint maneuvering and joint anti-submarine missions, according to the PLA Navy.
…
The Naval Interaction-2021 drill comes at a time when the US, India, Australia and Japan are holding Malabar naval drill in the Bay of Bengal, and also shortly after six countries including the US, the UK and Japan held drills in the South China Sea and surrounding areas. New regional security organizations like Quad and AUKUS are serious threats to both China and Russia, and the joint drill between the two countries will contribute to regional peace and stability, Song said.
Russian warship thwarts US destroyer’s attempt to violate state border in Sea of Japan – TASS
The Russian Pacific Fleet’s large anti-submarine warfare ship Admiral Tributs thwarted an attempt by a US guided missile destroyer to violate Russia’s state border in the Sea of Japan, the Defense Ministry of Russia reported on Friday. "Today, at about 5:00 p.m. local time, the US Navy’s destroyer Chafee (DDG-90), which has been operating in the Sea of Japan for several days, approached the territorial waters of the Russian Federation and attempted to cross the state border," the ministry said in a statement.
U.S. military disputes Russia's comments on naval interaction – Reuters
Russia said one of its military vessels chased away a U.S. naval destroyer that attempted to violate Russian territorial waters during Russian-Chinese naval drills in the Sea of Japan on Friday, something Washington said was false. The U.S. military said the guided missile destroyer Chafee was conducting routine operations in international waters in the Sea of Japan when a Russian destroyer came within 65 yards (60 metres) of the American ship, though all interactions were safe and professional.
Comment: While it’s highly doubtful that the Chafee came close to violating Russian waters, there are very compelling reasons for the US/Japan/other allies to convey to the Russian Navy that cooperation with the PRC could end in tears.
Chinese, Russian navies wrap up first joint cruise – People’s Daily
The joint cruise kicked off on Oct. 17 after the "Joint Sea-2021" exercise that started on Oct. 14. During the seven-day cruise, a combined ship formation conducted drills of joint navigation, joint maneuver and practical use of weapons.
According to a report from the Russian News Agency on the 27th, Major General Arkady Navalski, Chief of Staff of the Submarine Force Command of the Russian Pacific Fleet, said that the Russian Pacific Fleet will receive four new ships in the next few years. The nuclear submarines are two 955-type "Beifeng-A" nuclear submarines and two 885M-type Yasen-M multi-purpose nuclear submarines. Navalski said that according to the deployment of armaments, Russia plans to increase the combat power of its fleet by putting into use new nuclear submarines in the next few years, which will significantly enhance the strategic nuclear power of the Russian navy. The construction of new nuclear submarines has basically ended, and several of them are undergoing sea trials.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: China continues to build up its nuke stockpile – TASS
Senior Research Fellow at the Higher School of Economics Vasily Kashin [said]: “China's nuclear activities do not match its previous position, which was that it keeps the arsenal at a minimum and avoids entering the arms race. In fact, China is developing systems such as missiles capable of carrying 10 warheads each. They are working intensively on this. We can expect that by the end of the decade, the number of deployed nuclear weapons will increase significantly," Kashin said.
Comment: A future edition of The Report will discuss this issue. A previous issue discussed submarines and strategic deterrents.
How to Think About the China-Russia Partnership – James Sherr and Frank Jüris for ICDS
With reference to Bobo Lo’s 2008 characterisation of the China-Russian relationship as an ‘axis of convenience’, possibly it is time to go further. Today, it has become an axis of necessity. Strategic necessity dictates that mistrust be accepted, slights endured and divergences of interest managed. But how well and for how long?
When one looks at the issues that have the greatest probability of leading to war with the designated adversary — Belarus and Ukraine in the case of Russia, Taiwan in the case of China — it is clear why neither partner has an interest in concluding a defence treaty with the other. Their common interests diverge just where their specific interests are most acute. But that gives rise to an infernal question. Might one partner see the other’s war as an opportunity to start its own? And to give the infernal question a more devilish twist, might they have a joint interest in coordinating such opportunities beforehand? The fact that these possibilities are far-fetched does not make either of them inconceivable or prudently ignored by those who would suffer the consequences.
4) China and Europe
Kommersant: EU wants to impose new rules in Arctic – TASS
But in fact, the EU is fundamentally changing its approach to the Arctic. Since 2008, Brussels has been trying to obtain at least observer status in the Arctic Council - an organization uniting eight circumpolar states (Denmark, Iceland, Canada, Norway, Russia, the US, Finland and Sweden). This structure is sometimes called the "shadow government of the Arctic", since its members have been trying for 25 years to resolve key issues in the region among themselves, not allowing non-regional players there.
Comment: Non-regional players…
Joseph Wu heading to central Europe to bolster ties – Taipei Times
Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) is next week to visit Slovakia and the Czech Republic to enhance ties with the central European countries, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said yesterday.
… While Wu’s visit would not overlap with the trade delegation’s itinerary, it shares the same goals of expressing the strategic importance of Taiwan, its economic strength and its resolve to defend its democracy, [MOFA Spokesperson] Ou said.
EU lawmakers pass report backing closer Taiwan ties – Taipei Times
The European Parliament yesterday passed a report calling for closer cooperation between Taiwan and the eurozone on political, economic and cultural affairs. Meeting in Strasbourg, France, the members of the European Parliament voted 580 to 26, with 66 abstentions, in favor of the report on EU-Taiwan political relations and cooperation. The lawmakers hailed Taiwan as a key EU partner and democratic ally, and a contributor to the rule-based international order in the Indo-Pacific region amid intensifying geopolitical tensions, the European Parliament said in a news release.
Europe stands with Taiwan: EU delegation – Taipei Times
The head of the first-ever official European Parliament delegation to visit Taiwan told President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) yesterday that the visit is meant to send a clear message that Europe is standing by Taiwan in the defense of freedom.
Comment: Many European countries have been moving closer to the ROC, partially in response to strengthening Sino-Russian ties.
5) China-Russia Politics and Economics
Russia highly appreciates China's role in international affairs... [the] positions of Russia and China on many hot issues such as the Korean Peninsula, the situation in Syria and Afghanistan, and the Iranian nuclear issue are close or consistent.
Both Russia and China oppose the attempts of some countries to replace international decision-making with "small circles" [小圈子], and oppose the overhead of an international system with the United Nations at its core. Any attempt to seek unilateral advantage through the establishment of a so-called "rule-based international order" regardless of the interests and cultural characteristics of other countries will not succeed. The United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia recently announced the establishment of the so-called "trilateral security partnership", which will only further complicate the already complex regional situation.
Twenty years ago, the signing of the "Russia-China Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation" was an extremely important event in the history of bilateral relations. The treaty has laid a solid foundation for Russia-China cooperation and enabled the development of relations between the two countries to unprecedented heights. (前所未有的高度)
Comment: unprecedented heights, or”前所未有的高度” – was unprecedentedly high level, or 前所未有的高水平, in July
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on the 13th that China is Russia's most reliable partner, and Russia-China trade volume is expected to reach a record level this year. When answering questions at the plenary meeting of the "Russian Energy Week" held in Moscow that day, Putin said that China is Russia's largest economic and trade partner. Despite the global economic downturn, Russia-China trade volume has continued to increase. According to Russian statistics, the bilateral trade volume between Russia and China will exceed 100 billion U.S. dollars in the first nine months of this year.
People's Daily Online, Moscow, October 20 (Li Mingqi) According to a report from the Russian "Izvestia" [newspaper] on the 20th, Putin said that in order to combat COVID, he agreed to the proposal of an all-Russia paid vacation from October 30 to November 7. Putin said that the chief executives of areas with a high rate of COVID infections can assess the local epidemic situation on their own and start the holiday in advance from October 23. Not only that, if necessary, the holiday can be extended again after November 7th.
Comment: This article doesn’t refer to Putin as President. Still, this is likely just a mistake by some People’s Daily reporter and/or editor.
Gas supplies to China over Power of Siberia record high — Gazprom
Gas supplies to China over the Power of Siberia gas pipeline set a new record on October 31 and were more than 19% above daily commitments, Gazprom reports on Monday.
Comment: Power of Siberia’s pipelines and upstream gas supply aren’t connected to Gazprom’s Europe-serving natural gas infrastructure.
China, Russia agree to uphold multilateralism, warn of "small circles" – Xinhua
China is ready to work with Russia to uphold multilateralism and oppose "small circles," "false democracy" and "new Cold War," Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said here Saturday while meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Wang recalled the intensive contacts between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, and their participation in diplomatic events hosted by the other side via video link in the last two months.
Comment: Like a circle of two?
6) Russia and the Indo-Pacific
Press Conference, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
Question: What does Russia think about the actions of China, which has recently resumed its attempts to reunite with Taiwan? Do we see them as a threat to regional security?
Sergey Lavrov: Russia, like the overwhelming majority of other countries, considers Taiwan to be part of the People's Republic of China. We have proceeded and will proceed from this premise in our foreign policy.
Russia, China are friends in each other’s interests, not against others — Putin – TASS
Moscow and Beijing are not creating any closed military alliance unlike NATO countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin told the plenary session of the Valdai International Discussion Club. "We are friends with China not against anyone else, but in each other’s interests, this is first. Second, unlike NATO countries, we are not creating any closed military alliance or any military bloc between Russia and China," Putin stated.
Russia stands against substituting ASEAN platforms with bloc formats — senior diplomat
Russia strongly objects against substituting the existing ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) cooperation platforms with bloc-based formats, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov said on Friday.
"We strongly object against putting the association’s existing cooperation platforms on the back burner, against substituting them with closed bloc formats," he said at a conference dedicated to the 25th anniversary of the Russia-ASEAN dialogue partnership and 30th anniversary of relations between Russia and the ASEAN.
According to the senior diplomat, the Asia-Pacific region is currently at a crossroads and its future depends largely on the ASEAN. "The unity, security and prosperity of all countries of this region or new friend-or-foe, rich-or-poor, democratic-or-authoritarian division lines," he noted.
NATO increasingly resorting to Cold War schemes, says senior Russian diplomat – TASS
As Grushko pointed out, the alliance has begun to elaborate a new strategic concept, which will regard Russia and China as a single source of threat in addition to the intention to cut overseas military operations and prioritize strengthening the member states’ sustainability, according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
Eastern Economic Forum will be held on September 5-8, 2022, in Vladivostok – TASS
The 7th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) will be held at the Far Eastern Federal University campus in Vladivostok on September 5-8, 2022, the Roscongress Foundation, the organizer of the event, announced on Thursday.
Russian foreign minister notes attempts to escalate situation in Asia – TASS
Moscow sees attempts to destabilize the geopolitical situation in Asia made by military and narrow political structures which impede interstate interaction in the region, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on Tuesday at a meeting of the top diplomats of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia’s member countries.
7) Central Asia
Russia’s intel chief notes CIS special services’ role as safeguard against external impact – TASS
CIS special services need to be an instrument for protecting its member states from the West’s attempts at exerting influence, Director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Sergey Naryshkin said in response to journalists’ questions after the 17th conference of the association’s security and intelligence chiefs in Moscow on Wednesday…
"Western countries are making attempts quite actively and sometimes outright aggressively to introduce their own, totalitarian and liberal values, as I call them, into our society. We, however, are safeguarding our values, general human principles and are ready to protect them using all legitimate means and instruments," Naryshkin pointed out.
Comment: I don’t recall TASS, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or the SVR ever publicizing this meeting in the last half-decade (friendly reminder, however: I can’t read Russian). The most likely reason TASS included this article is because of Naryshkin’s ambitions: he is rumored to be seeking a promotion and has stepped up his media presence. It’s less likely, but not impossible, however, that Russia is subtly throwing a brush-back pitch in a southern and easterly direction as one of its neighbors expands its security footprint in Central Asia.
From A Secret Base in Tajikistan, China's War On Terror Adjusts To A New Reality – RFE/RL
Next to an old Soviet outpost and believed to have existed for at least five years, a collection of strategically located buildings and lookout towers controlled by Chinese troops are part of Beijing's nascent but growing hard-power footprint in the region focused on security in neighboring Afghanistan. Though both the Chinese and Tajik governments officially deny the existence of the base and Chinese personnel, a visit by an RFE/RL source near the compound and the surrounding area saw Beijing’s first military footprint in Central Asia in full swing as it finds itself at a crossroads following the Taliban’s August takeover of Afghanistan.
Russia has prepared for a series of large-scale exercises near the border with Afghanistan, which will take place on October 18-23, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. CSTO countries will showcase their readiness to defend the southern borders of the Commonwealth. China, Pakistan, Iran and India, representatives of the Taliban movement (outlawed in Russia) have been invited to take part. The exercises will involve several thousand military personnel from CSTO countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan) and 500 pieces of equipment are planned to be used in Tajikistan.
US pressure on Central Asia very dangerous — Russian Foreign Ministry – TASS
Russia sees as extremely dangerous US pressure on the Central Asian countries, being exerted with the aim of making them accommodate military and intelligence facilities, the director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s third department of the CIS countries, Alexander Sternik, told a conference entitled Afghanistan in the System of Regional Relations at the MGIMO University on Friday.
Comment: Leaving aside the merits of a U.S. military base in Central Asia (I personally suspect it would be terrible for U.S./Free World interests), some regional countries do seem interested in some sort of “Third Neighbor” presence.
8) RIC (Russia-India-China) and NAM
India, China may be first buyers of Russia’s latest S-500 air defense system – TASS
India, China and some of Russia’s partner states may be the first buyers of the S-500 next-generation anti-aircraft missile system, Director of Russia’s Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation Dmitry Shugayev said in an interview with the RBC media group on Tuesday.
"We consider India, as well as China and all the states that we have long-standing, partner and predictable relations with as prospective buyers of this latest system," the defense official said in response to a question about whether India could be the first foreign buyer of the Russian-made S-500 weapon. India is a long-standing strategic partner of Russia, the director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation stressed.
"We have concluded a contract for the S-400 and they will receive the first battalion set of this system by the yearend. That is why it is quite logical that they will display their interest in the foreseeable future and request the S-500 from us as well," Shugayev said.
Non-Alignment Movement offers new opportunities for global security, says Putin – TASS
The observer status in the Non-Alignment Movement (NAM) that Russia gained this past summer opens up new opportunities for interaction in ensuring global security and sustainable development, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his message to participants of the NAM’s jubilee meeting posted on the Kremlin’s website on Monday…
"Our country has recently gained observer status in the Non-Alignment Movement. This certainly opens up new opportunities for interaction in solving essential regional and global issues and ensuring security and sustainable development throughout the world," Putin stressed.
Comment: Underrated long-term development, potentially.
Until next time,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.