Sino-Russia combined naval drills in East China Sea conclude
The PRC, electricity grids, and Taiwan
No commentary up top today, although I’ll have more analyses out soon. It’s been a very busy August. – Joe
Naval affairs
Russian, Chinese Warships in East China Sea After Sailing Near Alaska – USNI (August 17th)
People’s Liberation Navy (PLAN) flotilla that sailed near Alaska and the Aleutian Islands in early August is now operating in the East China Sea, according to a Thursday Japan Ministry of Defense release.
We, the leaders of Japan, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and the United States, convened at Camp David to inaugurate a new era of trilateral partnership. We do so at a time of unparalleled opportunity for our countries and our citizens, and at a hinge point of history, when geopolitical competition, the climate crisis, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and nuclear provocations test us. This is a moment that requires unity and coordinated action from true partners, and it is a moment we intend to meet, together. Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States are determined to align our collective efforts because we believe our trilateral partnership advances the security and prosperity of all our people, the region, and the world. In this spirit, President Biden commended President Yoon and Prime Minister Kishida for their courageous leadership in transforming relations between Japan and the ROK. With the renewed bonds of friendship—and girded by the ironclad U.S.-Japan and U.S.-ROK alliances—each of our bilateral relationships is now stronger than ever. So too is our trilateral relationship.
Russian Ships Return From Joint Pacific Patrol With Chinese Ships – VOA (August 27th)
A detachment of Russia's navy warships returned from more than three weeks of joint patrolling of the Pacific Ocean with Chinese navy ships, the Russian Interfax news agency reported Sunday.
China and Russia's third joint naval patrol that allegedly reached international waters near Alaska last week has touched the nerves of US media, which hyped the voyage as "highly provocative," ignoring the fact that the US constantly sends warships and warplanes to China's doorsteps for close-in reconnaissance and military exercises under the so-called freedom of navigation.
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The operation is not targeted against any third party and is not related to any international or regional situation, the Chinese Defense Ministry said in a press release at the time.Two Type 052D guided missile destroyers, two Type 054A guided missile frigates and a Type 903 comprehensive replenishment ship of the Chinese Navy are included in the flotilla, while the Russian Navy is represented by vessels including large anti-submarine ships and corvettes, according to media reports.
Anton Khlopkov, director of the Russian Energy and Security Research Center, said in Vienna a few days ago that the information about the nuclear submarine cooperation between the United States, Britain and Australia is not transparent. This kind of cooperation has aggravated the risk of nuclear proliferation, impacted the international nuclear non-proliferation mechanism, and seriously threatened regional security and stability.
俄罗斯能源与安全研究中心主任安东·赫洛普科夫日前在维也纳表示,关于美英澳三国核潜艇合作的信息不透明,这种合作加剧了核扩散风险,冲击国际核不扩散机制,严重威胁地区安全稳定。
China has made impressive advances in quantum technologies in recent years. While China has not particularly distinguished itself in quantum sensing, it is widely viewed as the global leader in quantum communication. When it comes to quantum computing, China is behind the United States—the global leader—in some aspects, but its scientists have made eye-catching achievements and are progressing rapidly.
In recent years, China has not publicly demonstrated world-leading breakthroughs in quantum sensing. There has been some reporting suggesting China is working on quantum sensors for submarine detection, and in 2021, researchers at the prestigious Tsinghua University claimed they made advances in a quantum radar that could detect stealth aircraft by generating a small “electromagnetic storm.” In 2022, a research group at USTC published findings showing that they used diamonds to improve the capabilities of a developmental quantum radar.
Chinese ships block PH boats – Manilla Times
The voice of a radio operator on board one of the Chinese coast guard ships crackled over the airwaves a short time later, declaring China's "indisputable authority" over the Spratly Islands.
"In the spirit of humanism, we only permit your ship carrying food and other necessary living materials and the rotating personnel without construction materials to the illegally grounded vessel," the voice said.
Comment: Pay close attention to this incident, which may provide a template for a PRC attempt to impose a “quarantine” on Taiwan.
Taiwan and electricity
Taiwanese Presidential Frontrunner Talks China and Chips: Transcript – Bloomberg
Exclusive interview with Taiwan’s Vice President Lai Ching-te
“We must work to maintain the peaceful status quo,” Lai says
What war mobilisation might look like in China – The Economist
Certain preparations would be obvious weeks before an attack on Taiwan
Beijing’s solar strategy has evidently prioritized deployment of rooftop solar for government buildings and in provinces that hold key naval bases. If tensions over Taiwan, for example, increase or even break into open conflict, mainland China’s distributed deployment of rooftop solar could reduce its overall vulnerability to cyberattacks or other disruptions, granting Beijing’s leadership greater flexibility.
U.S. Hunts Chinese Malware That Could Disrupt American Military Operations – NYT
The Biden administration is hunting for malicious computer code it believes China has hidden deep inside the networks controlling power grids, communications systems and water supplies that feed military bases in the United States and around the world, according to American military, intelligence and national security officials.
Authoritarian Political Influence Campaigns
Election Interference Demands a Collective Defense – Richard Fontaine of CNAS for Foreign Affairs
As campaign season heats up ahead of the 2024 U.S. election, so does the potential for foreign political interference. Russia and China both pair a willingness to do harm with sophisticated cyber capabilities. Iran has its own track record of meddling in American politics, and it, too, may be tempted to interfere. And the United States is not the only target. In recent years, Australia, Canada, France, and Germany have all been subject to attempts at foreign interference. For the foes of democracy, distorting electoral politics now seems to be a low-cost, high-reward way to support their favored candidates, harm their perceived enemies, or simply deepen polarization and sow internal distrust—often with the added benefit of plausible deniability.
Russian tanks and heavy duty equipment
Tanks or Trains? Russia is Bearing Down on Both – Thane Gustafson for The Devil’s Dance
Make tanks or trains? It is a stark dilemma for Russian industry, as it attempts to convert on the run from civilian output to military production. Russia is struggling to make both, but it is doing a poor job of it. What is its problem?
Although Russia’s tank industry is striving to increase production, it currently lacks the capacity to produce enough new or upgraded tanks to replace its losses. It will take months and in many cases years to add new plants and equipment, hire skilled workers, and establish supply chains.
Booming Trade With China Helps Boost Russia’s War Effort – WSJ
Chinese exports to its neighbor have risen sharply, as Beijing sends everything from microchips to trench-digging excavators
The Chinese economy, Central Asia, and the Global Security Initiative
China’s 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next? – WSJ
The economic model that took the country from poverty to great-power status seems broken, and everywhere are signs of distress
Xi’s Age of Stagnation – Ian Johnson of the Council on Foreign Relations for Foreign Affairs
For anyone who has observed the country closely over the past few decades, it is difficult to miss the signs of a new national stasis, or what Chinese people call neijuan. Often translated as “involution,” it refers to life twisting inward without real progress.
China’s domestic economic realities are colliding with Xi’s geopolitical ambitions and impacting Beijing’s Russia policy.
China In Eurasia Briefing: Why Georgia Is On China's Mind – Reid Standish of RFE/RL
On a recent reporting trip to the country, my colleague Tamuna Chkareuli and I investigated a project to build a deep-sea port that could place Georgia at the epicenter of a global competition for trade routes and infrastructure between China, Russia, and the West.
Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu recently wrapped up a symbolic trip to Russia and Belarus by bolstering military ties with both countries.
But as I reported, a central focus of the trip was pushing China's new Global Security Initiative (GSI), Beijing's sweeping blueprint aimed at presenting foreign-policy alternatives to those offered by the West.
Against the backdrop of the intensifying war in Ukraine, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu wrapped up a symbolic trip to Russia and Belarus by bolstering military ties and promoting a Chinese initiative meant to rival Western frameworks and put Beijing at the center of international security issues.
In comments after the deal was signed, Wang Yi, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) top official for foreign affairs, noted that the dialogue was a successful application of the Global Security Initiative, or GSI. That proposal remains obscure to many practitioners of international relations, but it is of growing importance to Beijing as part of Xi’s intensifying campaign to remake the world order in China’s favor.
Xi and his diplomats have been propagating the GSI with greater urgency in recent months. Beijing’s 12-point “position paper” (also called a “peace plan”) on resolving the Ukraine war, released in February on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion, also relied heavily on ideas found in the GSI. First proposed by Xi in April 2022 and further articulated in a concept paper released in February 2023, the GSI is a manifesto for an alternative system of international affairs to the current “rules based” order led by the United States and its partners in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. In it are China’s core principles of diplomacy, including the paramount importance of state sovereignty and territorial integrity; noninterference in the internal affairs of states; and opposition to “unilateral” sanctions and “bloc confrontation.” Though many of its ideas are not new, the GSI, taken as a whole, is Xi’s first attempt to present a more comprehensive vision of a new world order and formulate the ideological backbone for a global governance system that elevates Chinese influence at the expense of American power.
Joe Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and editor of the China-Russia Report. This article represents his own personal opinion.
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.