Taiwan and Mongolia
An energy security issue
Not much commentary in this relatively short edition. Later in the week I’ll write about Beijing’s perspective on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant as well as a piece on Central Asia. Looking forward to seeing/meeting many of you later this month in San Diego. Thanks for reading.
Table of Contents:
Taiwan
Mongolia
The war (and a potential cease fire, ultimately?)
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
Bilateral political relations
Bilateral Military Cooperation
Chinese energy
Potpourri: Prigozhin fallout, the Chinese economy, aircraft cooperation, notable
1) Taiwan
Taiwan Has a Big National-Security Risk: It Imports 97% of Its Energy – WSJ
While total energy self-sufficiency is out of reach, analysts say mitigating some vulnerabilities in the case of a potential quarantine, blockade or invasion could help buy time.
A study published Friday by the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, recommends that Taiwan expand its domestic renewable-energy power generation to lessen import dependency and increase its purchases of fossil fuels from aligned countries to deter harassment from China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy.
The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine clearly demonstrated that energy security and national security are inseparable, yet Ukraine was a thoroughfare of Russian gas pipelines before the invasion and still has substantial coal reserves and nuclear power. Taiwan, in contrast, is one of the world’s most energy-insecure economies, relying on maritime imports for about 97 percent of its energy.
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Taiwan’s energy security challenges are serious, but its chief problems are fundamentally military and naval.
Ministry ramps up missile production – Taipei Times
The Hsiung Feng III variant is expected to significantly boost the engagement range of the nation’s anti-ship weapons as China raises ship production
Taiwan Looks to Ukraine Playbook in Race to Build Satellite Internet – WSJ
Kyiv’s ability to maintain broadband access inspires Taipei to boost communications resilience as China tensions rise
While Chinese leaders likely felt domestic pressure to take action to oppose the transit, it is not clear they faced the same level of pressure as they did in August 2022. There was significantly less coverage of the Tsai transit on Chinese media and social media compared to then-speaker Pelosi’s August trip, when Weibo crashed around the time Pelosi was about to land in Taiwan and many netizens in China were tracking her flight to the island.
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[Ma Ying-jeou’s] trip to China, and his talking points after the trip, likely helped Beijing message to the Taiwan people that Beijing is open to working with leaders in Taipei. It was also meant to show that working with Beijing will bring Taiwan peace and prosperity, while pushing for Taiwan independence will create crises and conflict. Beijing’s messaging sets the stage for how to interpret Chinese actions toward Taiwan and does not rule out the possibility of another major escalation between now and January 2024 if Beijing perceives Taipei is embracing more “pro-independence” actions.
2) Mongolia
Li Qiang Holds Talks with Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun Erden – People’s Daily [Chinese-language]
Li Qiang pointed out that China is willing to support each other with Mongolia on issues involving each other's core interests and major concerns. China is promoting Chinese-style modernization, and is willing to deepen cooperation with Mongolia in various fields, and welcomes Mongolia to share the new opportunities brought about by China's development. The two countries should do a good job in strategic alignment, jointly build the "Belt and Road" with high quality, unblock trade and investment exchanges, expand cooperation in the field of mineral energy, strengthen border port connectivity, deepen cooperation in desertification prevention and control, expand exchanges in tourism, education and other fields, and promote interpersonal exchanges and become good partners for mutual benefit and win-win development. China will continue to provide support and assistance within its capacity for Mongolia's economic and social development.
李强指出，中方愿同蒙方在涉及彼此核心利益和重大关切的问题上相互支持。中国正在推进中国式现代化建设，愿同蒙古国深化各领域合作，欢迎蒙古国分享中国发展带来的新机遇。两国要做好战略对接，高质量共建“一带一路”，畅通贸易投资往来，扩大矿产能源领域合作，加强边境口岸互联互通，深化防沙治沙合作，扩大旅游、教育等领域交流，促进人民相知相亲，做互利共赢发展的好伙伴。中方将继续为蒙古国经济社会发展提供力所能及的支持和帮助。
Xi Jinping Meets with Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene – PRC MFA
Xi Jinping stressed that China and Mongolia should always stay committed to respecting each other's national independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, respecting the development paths independently chosen by the two peoples, and firmly supporting each other on issues involving their respective core interests and major concerns. Noting that China is advancing the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernization while Mongolia is committed to national reform and economic and social development, Xi Jinping said that the two sides can continue to seek greater synergy between their development strategies and join hands to advance modernization. China will continue to carry out cooperation with Mongolia in line with the principle of amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness, strengthen connectivity between the two countries, advance the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor, and promote high-quality Belt and Road cooperation. China works actively to advance global environmental governance, stands ready to cooperate with Mongolia in the prevention and control of desertification, and will continue to support Mongolia's plan to plant one billion trees. China is ready to work with Mongolia to strengthen inter-party interactions, and enhance exchanges in state governance.
Oyun-Erdene said that connected by mountains and rivers, Mongolia and China have enjoyed close people-to-people ties and are a community with a shared future. Mongolia will never forget that during the COVID-19 pandemic, Beijing successfully hosted the Olympic Winter Games Beijing 2022, sending a positive message of solidarity and cooperation and giving a strong boost to the confidence of the international community. Mongolia will also never forget the valuable assistance provided by China. China has scored remarkable achievements in its development, demonstrating its leadership in the world. He expressed confidence that under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, China will definitely realize Chinese modernization. Mongolia is ready to work with China to build Mongolia-China relations into a role model of state-to-state relations. Mongolia stays committed to the one-China principle, supports China's position on issues related to Taiwan, Xizang, and Xinjiang, among others, and supports the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative proposed by President Xi Jinping. Oyun-Erdene noted that Mongolia is ready to work closely with China to continue respecting and supporting each other's choice of development paths, promote high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, strengthen inter-party and youth exchanges, advance connectivity projects such as cross-border railways and port connectivity between the two countries, and deepen cooperation in economy and trade, investment, energy, green development, anti-corruption, and other areas.
If Mongolia exports even a tenth of its renewables potential, the implications for Chinese energy will be immense. Mongolian-generated electricity from renewables could displace or even replace Russian energy exports to China, including from the long-planned Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline. Beijing is already taking initial steps to develop renewables in climatologically-similar regions adjoining Mongolia.
Comment: This article is worth your time. Due to Mongolia’s its solar and wind generation potential, China’s coming glut of solar panels, and Beijing’s concerns about energy security, I strongly suspect Mongolia will feature much more prominently in Sino-Russian relations by 2030 and may even become the defining issue in bilateral ties.
3) The war (and a potential cease fire, ultimately?)
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1677435161514737665
CIA director, on secret trip to Ukraine, hears plan for war’s endgame – Washington Post
During meetings in Kyiv, William Burns was told of Ukraine’s ambitious goal to retake territory and push Moscow into talks by the end of the year
Former U.S. officials have held secret Ukraine talks with prominent Russians – NBC News
A group of former senior U.S. national security officials has held secret talks with prominent Russians believed to be close to the Kremlin — and, in at least one case, with the country’s top diplomat — with the aim of laying the groundwork for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, half a dozen people briefed on the discussions said.
Comment: I’m very skeptical that Lavrov is actually empowered to negotiate matters of war and peace on behalf of the Kremlin. These issues are more likely to be decided by the siloviki, in Putin’s system, while the Lavrov meeting is likely more akin to Track 1.5 diplomacy. I’m also very curious which prominent Russian are “believed to be close to the Kremlin.”
In Small Victory, Signs of Grueling Combat Ahead in Ukrainian Counteroffensive – NYT
Expecting a quick retreat, a volunteer Ukrainian unit instead faced two days of tough resistance from dug-in Russian forces.
4) The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
Diplomat sees global risks in Kiev plans to conduct terror attack on Zaporozhye nuke plant – TASS
Ukraine is planning to conduct a terrorist attack on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), with potential consequences affecting the entire globe, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told Sputnik radio on Wednesday.
"[Ukrainian President Vladimir] Zelensky is going to conduct a terror attack on the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant," the diplomat said.
According to Zakharova, neither the United States nor Great Britain sees this as a danger. "Meanwhile, not a single corner of the planet will be unaffected, because there are such things as the atmosphere, the world ocean and agriculture," Zakharova emphasized. "If anything happens, everything will be affected - the air, the water, and food. And Zelensky is clearly seeking to use this factor for his extremist terrorist purposes," the Russian diplomat lamented.
Comment: This is, of course, a potential threat from Moscow.
5) Bilateral political relations
Russia Turmoil Undermines China’s Global Diplomatic Push – WSJ
Beijing is unlikely to abandon key partner in facing the U.S., security analysts say
Wagner Uprising Highlights China’s Risks With Russia – NYT
Xi Jinping needs Vladimir Putin to remain in power, and Russia to maintain stability, to help uphold the countries’ shared interests and to keep challenging the United States.
Despite having limited means to directly influence the outcome of battles inside its giant neighbour, China will go to great lengths, including efforts to keep the Russian economy afloat, to prevent a revolution from taking hold there. It is firmly in China’s interests to keep Mr Putin in the Kremlin—or at least a leader who is just as anti-American and friendly to China.
Comment: This article carries many valuable insights and is worth your time, although there are several points I don’t agree with or am deeply skeptical about (such as Xi’s forewarning about the invasion, or that the war is “gradually” turning Russia into China’s junior partner. I would characterize the process as more rapid, although there aren’t necessarily agreed-upon definitions of what “junior partnership” looks like.)
6) Bilateral Military Cooperation
Ministry detects two Russian warships off Taiwan – Taipei Times
The Ministry of National Defense on Tuesday reported a rare sighting of Russian warships near Taiwan’s waters, saying that it closely monitored their movements before they sailed away.
The ministry said it detected two Russian corvettes at about 11pm sailing north in waters off eastern Taiwan before leaving the military’s monitoring range from Suao Township (蘇澳) in Yilan County.
The ships were sailing southeast, it said.
Russian navy ships visit Shanghai as sides reaffirm military ties amid Ukraine conflict – Reuters
Despite a number of rhetorical flourishes at leadership summits, after undergoing a period of rapid expansion from 2014 to 2019, Russian-Chinese military cooperation has largely plateaued in recent years. There is little evidence of continued expansion since 2020 in either military-technical cooperation or joint military activities.
The emergence of combined air and naval patrols has been a key development in China-Russia military cooperation in recent years. Since 2019, China and Russia have carried out seven iterations of combined air or naval patrols in areas of the West Pacific. Although often described in media reports as “joint” activities, the patrols have been “combined” in the sense that each iteration has involved only a single military service on each side. The patrols to date include five iterations of annual “joint air patrols” in the Sea of Japan and East China Sea since 2019 and two iterations of annual “joint naval patrols” in waters surrounding Japan and near Alaska, respectively, since 2021. However, each of the naval patrols has taken place following a combined exercise involving PRC and Russian naval ships (Joint Sea 2021 and Vostok 2022, respectively) and can be viewed as a continuation of that exercise rather than a separate activity.
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There is a clear sense that China gains more from the relationship than Russia does in terms of the material benefits of cooperation. The PLA has long used military exercises to learn from its Russian counterparts and to improve operationally, with activities with the Russian military being seen in China as particularly valuable given the contrast between the PLA’s lack of operational experience and the Russian military’s experience in operations in Ukraine and Syria. China could also gain strategically from potential access to Russian military facilities inthe Far East, though there is little indication that Russia is willing to grant such access in the foreseeable future. The Russian military, which has long seen itself as more advanced in operational knowledge than its Chinese counterpart, has gained less in practical terms. At the same time, Russia’s performance over the last year in its war with Ukraine may introduce some doubts among PLA leaders about the quality of the Russian military, which may in turn affect the perceived utility of what the PLA may be able to learn from joint exercises and operations with the Russian military. While it is far too early to see evidence of such a shift in Chinese perceptions, it is a possibility that observers should consider going forward.
Comment: Very useful report and a great source of data.
7) Chinese energy
China’s Record Hot Spell Piling Pressure on Power Supply – Bloomberg
China is bracing for more extreme heat over summer after a record spell of high temperatures, with expectations that an earlier-than-usual surge in electricity demand will put more pressure on the grid.
8) Potpourri: Prigozhin fallout, the Chinese economy, aircraft cooperation, notable
Wagner’s Prigozhin Planned to Capture Russian Military Leaders – WSJ
Western intelligence officials say Russian domestic intelligence agency learned of plot in advance
Chinese rush to buy Hong Kong insurance, dollars as confidence cracks, yuan weakens – Reuters
Chinese investors are rushing offshore to make dollar deposits and buy Hong Kong insurance in a signal domestic confidence is languishing and that the ailing yuan faces more pressure.
June 20th:
https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1671210984394878977
Russia has huge demand for domestically produced aircraft — PM Mishustin – TASS [June 22]
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has praised the country's demand for domestically produced aircraft.
"The demand is huge," he said at a conference in Kazan on expanding civil aircraft production.
"Our companies need modern aircraft for transporting goods and passengers. We need small models for regional flights, as well as medium-and long-haul aircraft," Mishustin added.
He emphasized that the government pays great attention to the aviation industry. "This is a strategic, backbone industry," Mishustin said.
Time to make peace in Ukraine, Trump tells Reuters – TASS
The time is ripe for making peace in Ukraine, and the United States should contribute to the peace process right now, acting as a mediator, former US President Donald Trump said in a telephone interview with Reuters on Thursday.
"I think the biggest thing that the US should be doing right now is making peace - getting Russia and Ukraine together and making peace," he said. "This is the time to do it," he added.
The ex-US leader also believes Ukraine may be allowed to keep what it has "earned."
"I think they would be entitled to keep much of what they've earned and I think that Russia likewise would agree to that. You need the right mediator, or negotiator, and we don't have that right now," he lamented.
Without either elaborating on what Trump meant under "earned" or citing the former US president directly, Reuters said that he did not rule out that Kiev might have to concede some territory to Russia. Everything would be "subject to negotiation" though, Trump added.
The former US leader has repeatedly said publicly that he would broker peace in Ukraine in 24 hours if he were to win the 2024 presidential election. However, he never explained exactly how he sees ending this conflict.
Joe Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and editor of the China-Russia Report. This article represents his own personal opinion.
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.
"This is, of course, a potential threat from Moscow."
The correct left-wing stance is that the U.S, the atlantist arm of the regime (One business party with two factions, responsible for the forever wars in all parts of the world), are using Ukraine as a proxy to weaken Russia. Jeffrey Sachs, Noam Chomsky, the late Dan Ellsburg, all prominent left-wing activists agree with the eastern NATO expansion stance leading to this war.
The decision of Boris Johnson and other Western leaders to dissuade Volodymyr Zelenskyy from signing a peace deal in April 2022 was a “crime against humanity”: - Daniel Ellsburg, former high lvl Nuclear planner. Daniel Ellsberg, unbenounced to the general public, is a hero whose efforts are the reason we aren't playing with sticks and stones instead of iphones. His whistleblowing mitigated Nixons plans of nuclear escalation during the Vietnam War, as well as nuclear plans to annihilate most Chinese cities because of similar circumstances with Taiwan. God bless his wonderful soul, for he recently passed away of pancreatic cancer. Watch his recent interviews, he's one of the most special people to grace our pathetic country.
https://youtu.be/NV7JfyNK6hc
I really can't stand liberal bias, none of the opinions on this page will ever be relevant as long as you cling to confirmation bias. Imagine thinking the U.S, home to the Republican party, who is 100% denialist of climate change, and covid, isn't the greatest threat to human existence in the short term. Emmanuel Macron- "The U.S pulled out of the Paris climate Accord, why should anyone trust them." -paraphrased. I agree, they are a group o beasts who dragging the human race to early extinction, and we're are gleefully helping them! Unless you're some sort of bolsgevik right-winger, there's no reason why reasonable people should be parroting U.S propaganda at this point, listen to U.S most prominent intellectuals and discover for yourself.