The PRC protests and the ROC elections
PRC crushes protesters, once again; the opposition party gains in the ROC’s elections
There was quite a contrast in the Chinese-speaking world this weekend. Mainland China saw its most significant protests since the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 amid widespread anger over COVID restrictions. Taiwan, meanwhile, undertook elections that saw the KMT opposition party largely prevail over the DPP in free and fair elections.
The PRC is the world’s most capable techno-authoritarian state and will almost certainly be able to suppress the protests. That does not mean the protests will not have an effect. Wang Juntao of the exiled China Democracy Party believes that Beijing will administer selective and severe punishments for protest leaders while easing certain COVID restrictions. By applying sticks to the most committed – and, from the CCP’s perspective, dangerous – protesters while giving out carrots to the less committed, Beijing believes it can staunch the anti-lockdown protests from turning into a broader anti-CCP or even pro-democracy movement.
Taiwan’s elections the Kuomintang opposition party make gains in local elections. While the DPP is favored to win the ROC’s presidential elections in Jan 2024, New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜) won his re-election bid decisively and would be a very strong candidate and, perhaps, President. Mayor Hou took steps in 2020 that suggested he did not support the KMT’s Presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu, who was a populist and, arguably, PRC-adjacent. Hou also does not appear to have affirmed the so-called 1992 consensus that holds that Taiwan and the mainland form ‘one China’.
While the KMT is traditionally less hostile to the CCP than the DPP, there is little to suggest that the island is moving any closer to the PRC. The percentage of individuals on the island identifying as Chinese continues to fall while Taiwanese identity is increasingly entrenched. But economics could play an important, if underappreciated, role in cross-Strait dynamics. The IMF’s latest real GDP growth estimates suggest that Taiwan will grow faster than the mainland this year. This dynamic isn’t unprecedented: Taiwan experienced more GDP growth than the PRC in 2020. Still, if Taiwan’s GDP growth routinely exceeds the PRC’s and the gulf in living standards widens even further, what are the implications for cross-Strait dynamics?
Russian state media didn’t avoid the protests, although it also didn’t discuss them prominently. Moscow very likely privately prefers that Beijing scrap its COVID zero policy, as increasing mobility (and energy demand) in China would bolster oil prices and Russian export earnings.
Table of Contents:
The Kinetic War
Russian state media and the protests
The protests and PRC Techno-Authoritarianism
Taiwan’s “9-in-1” local elections
Background on New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (potential next ROC President)
EU and China
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Russia’s invasion reverberating through the Indo-Pacific
China-Russia Economic and Political Ties
1. The Kinetic War
Artillery Is Breaking in Ukraine. It’s Becoming a Problem for the Pentagon. – NYT
Ukrainian soldiers are firing thousands of shells daily, forcing the U.S. to replace gun barrels across the border in Poland.
U.S. and NATO Scramble to Arm Ukraine and Refill Their Own Arsenals – NYT
The West thought an artillery and tank war in Europe would never happen again and shrank weapons stockpiles. It was wrong.
A Ukrainian attempt to retake Crimea would be bloody and difficult
Vladimir Putin hoped to take over Ukraine in ten days. Nine months on, he faces serious problems holding on to the slice of territory he did manage to seize. Momentum is on Ukraine’s side following two counter-offensives, around Kharkiv in the north-east, and Kherson in the south, that were conducted with a minimum of loss and a maximum of triumph.
Comment: Smart article, worth your time. Kyiv trying to retake Crimea would be militarily difficult and politically unsound, in my view. The peninsula is also a potential flash point for a future conflict.
Kiev says half of city left without power – TASS
On Wednesday, an air alert was issued throughout Ukraine that lasted for more than two hours. Dnepr, Kiev, Lvov, Nikolaev, Odessa, Kharkov, and other cities reported explosions and damage to infrastructure facilities. According to Ukraine's Ministry of Energy, all three nuclear power plants under Kiev's control (Rovenskaya, Khmelnitskaya, and Yuzhno-Ukrainskaya) were cut off from the power grid, as were most thermal and hydroelectric power plants, and power transmission facilities.
Comment: The TASS article doesn’t explicitly mention why half of Kyiv is without power.
2. Russian state media and the protests
China’s new daily coronavirus cases hit 40,000 cases, new record – TASS
China registered more than 40,000 new COVID-19 cases over the past day, Xinhua reported on Monday, citing official statistics.
According to the news agency, 40,052 new coronavirus cases - a new record for China since the onset of the pandemic - were recorded in the country on Sunday, of which the majority were asymptomatic.
China is seeing a new wave of the pandemic this fall, with COVID-19 cases at record peaks. Authorities in China are still pursuing a zero-Covid policy and keep imposing strict restrictions. On Sunday, protests against anti-coronavirus measures were held in a number of Chinese regions. [Bolded by The Report]
China sends working groups to monitor local anti-COVID-19 measures — media – TASS
China’s National Health Commission and the National Administration of Disease Control and Prevention have dispatched working groups to supervise the implementation of local anti-coronavirus measures, the Global Times reported on Monday.
According to the newspaper, the groups will be tasked to correct local one-size-fits-all approaches to fighting the spread of COVID-19 and prevent extremes from taking place.
The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention underscored that a universal approach should not be used nationwide, and no additional restrictions should be imposed in low-risk areas.
On Sunday, the South China Morning Post reported that protests against China’s relentless pandemic controls had flared in a number of major Chinese cities. [Bolded by The Report. Very interesting – and potentially instructive – that TASS cited the SCMP, which is often regarded as a quasi-independent outlet.] A recent deadly fire in Xinjiang was among the reasons behind the unrest. The residents of a building were quarantined amid a COVID-19 outbreak there. The fire killed 10 people and another nine were injured.
3. The protests and PRC Techno-Authoritarianism
ANALYSIS: Chinese protests unlikely to grow into broader pro-democracy movement – Radio Free Asia
Wang Juntao, who heads the U.S. branch of the banned China Democracy Party, said the authorities are highly likely to start handing down harsh punishment to a minority of protesters they have decided were the ringleaders, while easing back on the zero-COVID policy without shelving it.
"They're likely to take steps to appease the majority, while severely punishing a small group,” Wang said.
Comment: I think Wang’s analysis is correct.
The Fight In Serbia Over Chinese-Style Surveillance (Part 1) – RFE/RL
Today, the government's attempts to expand the use of biometric surveillance faces stiff resistance from human rights and privacy activists over the potential abuse of Chinese mass-monitoring equipment by the authorities to track and intimidate protesters in order to curb anti-government dissent.
Serbia's Legal Tug-Of-War Over Chinese Surveillance Technology (Part 2) – RFE/RL
In the photos and videos shared by environmental groups on social media, what appeared to be plainclothes police can be seen filming crowds of protesters with a device that Serbian authorities later said was a Huawei EP 821 trunking terminal -- equipment increasingly used by Chinese security forces that Serbian police bought from China as part of a security-cooperation agreement.
How ZTE helps Venezuela create China-style social control – Reuters (from 2018)
Chinese telecoms giant ZTE is helping Venezuela build a system that monitors citizen behavior through a new identification card. The "fatherland card," already used by the government to track voting, worries many in Venezuela and beyond.
4. Taiwan’s “9-in-1” local elections
2022 ELECTIONS: DPP routed across the board – Taipei Times
The KMT’s Chiang Wan-an defeated the DPP’s Chen Shih-chung and is to become Taipei mayor, while President Tsai Ing-wen stepped down as DPP chairperson after many of the party’s candidates, handpicked by the leadership, performed poorly
2022 ELECTIONS: Hou You-yi wins a second term in New Taipei City – Taipei Times
New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) yesterday won a second term after gaining a decisive lead over former Taichung mayor Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍), the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) candidate.
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He and [his DPP opponent] Lin had remained friends throughout the campaign, and the two had talked earlier in the evening to share ideas about the city, Hou said.
Comment: Hou appears to be a very impressive individual with considerable political skills.
5. Background on New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (potential next ROC President)
KMT’s Hou forges his own path in politics – Taipei Times
New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜) caused a stir on Saturday when he said he would not head the city’s campaign office for Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu’s (韓國瑜) presidential campaign.
Reading between the lines, Hou understands that the public detests the infighting between the pan-blue and pan-green camps and is pursuing a strategy aimed at dissolving the nation’s “color politics.” He thinks there is nothing wrong with sharing a stage with a pan-green politician if that could help boost the city’s budget and secure more infrastructure projects.
Cop, Philosopher, and President? – Michael Fahey for The News Lens
New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi wrote a master class in the art of the Chinese essay and offers a compelling conservative vision for Taiwan’s future. Should he run for president, he will be a very formidable candidate.
Hou Yu-ih's manifesto for future of Taiwan politics – Taiwan News
New Taipei City mayor targets national audience, bucks party with personal and political manifesto
6. EU and China
European Council president to visit China – People’s Daily
At the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, President of the European Council Charles Michel will visit China on Dec. 1, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying announced Monday.
"This is the first formal meeting between leaders of China and the EU institution after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told a daily news briefing on Monday, adding that during the visit, President Xi will hold talks with President Michel.
U.S. cashes in on energy crisis of its ‘good friend’ Europe – People’s Daily
European countries have been plunged into an energy crisis as their sanctions against Russia following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have backfired.
Soaring production costs, skyrocketing prices, and rising living costs have posed major risks and challenges to Europe’s economy.
However, as European countries come under great pressure due to the energy crisis, the U.S. has decided to take advantage of the situation by selling energy to them at high prices.
Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that the U.S. exported liquefied natural gas (LNG) to other countries at $12.76 per thousand cubic feet in July this year, up 76.5 percent from $7.23 in the same period in 2021, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported recently.
In June this year, the price of U.S. LNG exports surged 119 percent year on year to $14.37 per thousand cubic feet, according to AFP.
The U.S. has drawn widespread criticism from the international community for its blatant profiting at the expense of its ally.
As French President Emmanuel Macron pointed out, selling energy to its friends at a price four times more than at home “is not exactly the meaning of friendship”.
Comment: Several parts of this article are odd. This article presumably seeks to influence European readers, but it lists prices in thousand cubic feet, similar to the US standard of listing nat gas prices in $/MMBtu (my understanding is that European TTF liquefied natural gas prices are typically listed in Euro/MWh). Additionally, the article lists the Energy Information Administration’s July data, even though June and August data were both available at the time of publication (and more supportive of the PD’s narrative). Finally, it’s worth noting that US LNG exporters typically aren’t the ones most benefitting from eye-watering LNG prices. Due to the structure of the contracts between LNG export terminals and their offtakers, trading shops, many of them European, are collecting the bulk of the profits (see below).
Why cheap US gas costs a fortune in Europe – Politico Europe
The EU is under immense pressure to cap the price of imported natural gas to contain energy costs — but many of the companies making a fortune selling cheap U.S. gas to the Continent at eye-watering markups are European.
Affected by factors such as the spillover effect of the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes, the inflation rate in the euro zone continued to rise. A Spanish economic expert said in an interview with a reporter from Xinhua News Agency a few days ago that the Fed’s interest rate hike has led to the appreciation of the dollar and the depreciation of the euro, which will further boost Spanish inflation and increase the burden on people’s livelihood.
Comment: This article about inflation doesn’t mention natural gas prices or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
U.S. makes profits from Russia-Ukraine conflict, says French journalist – People’s Daily
The United States is making profits from the conflict in Ukraine in terms of liquefied natural gas, the arms industry and industrial competitiveness, a French journalist has said.
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"Washington's unwavering support for Ukraine makes the United States the big winner in the global stage without a single soldier needing to set foot onto Ukrainian soil," with undeniable geostrategic, economic, military and political gains, she said.
7. Belarus
Belarusian foreign minister Vladimir Makei passes away — BelTA – TASS (Nov 26th)
Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei has passed away, the Belarusian news agency BelTA reported on Saturday.
"Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei has died," the report said citing Anatoly Glaz, spokesman for the country’s Foreign Ministry.
Belarus’s architect of Western outreach dies suddenly, state media reports. – NYT
Vladimir Makei served 10 years as the foreign minister of Belarus, a key geopolitical battleground between Russia and the West.
8. Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan to focus on relations with Russia, China in foreign policy — Tokayev
Kazakhstan will focus on relations with Russia and China as it will continue to pursue a balanced and constructive foreign policy, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said at his inauguration ceremony on Saturday.
"Kazakhstan will continue to pursue a balanced, constructive foreign policy aimed at protecting national interests. The priority attention will focus on issues of mutually beneficial cooperation and strategic partnership with neighboring states: Russia, China and the fraternal countries of Central Asia, with partners in integration associations," Tokayev said.
According to the president, the government will also seek to develop ties with with the US, the EU, the countries of Asia, the Middle East and Transcaucasia, as well as with all countries that will wish so.
"Kazakhstan remains committed to modern international law and the UN Charter," the president said.
9. Russia’s invasion reverberating through the Indo-Pacific
Indonesian military chief eyes wider joint drills in Indo-Pacific – Asia Nikkei
Drawing lessons from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, [Indonesian military chief] Perkasa said he realized "nothing is impossible," though he carefully avoided mentioning China as the potential threat in Asia.
"Almost no one predicted that" the war in Ukraine "would happen, but it did happen. So I think we are also very realistic that things like that could happen" in the South China Sea.
The United States would impose at least some economic sanctions on China in any scenario. But if U.S. forces were engaged, the sanctions would be severe, and Washington would probably coordinate with—or even compel—major allies to join such sanctions. U.S. politicians and the public would likely not tolerate continued direct trade or investment with China if U.S. forces suffer even a low number of casualties fighting Chinese forces, although indirect economic linkages would remain. Financial sanctions on major Chinese banks would have a devastating economic impact, including for U.S. firms and consumers. The expected costs of such actions suggest they would only be used in full once a conflict breaks out and the United States becomes militarily involved. If U.S. personnel start dying and the public sees bloody images of China’s attack on Taiwan, Western sentiment would likely turn swiftly and decidedly against China. A Western sanctions coalition could coalesce quickly, as happened after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in part because of lessons learned and coordination mechanisms established in response to the sanctions against Russia.
Japan may strike enemy bases in case of attack on allied country — newspaper – TASS
Japan's armed forces may get approval to launch missile strikes on bases on the territory of a potential enemy not only in case of direct aggression against it, but also in case of an attack on an allied country. This is now being worked out in preparation for revising key security documents, the Sankei Shimbun newspaper reported on Friday, citing government sources.
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The Mainichi Shimbun newspaper reported on Friday that Japan was considering the deployment of long-range land-base missiles primarily on remote islands in the southwest of the country, where Tokyo has a territorial dispute with China. They could also be deployed at the range around Mount Fuji in the center of the country and on the country's northernmost island of Hokkaido, which is in close proximity to Russia.
Japan’s LDP mulls military export rule overhaul – Taipei Times
Japan’s ruling party is discussing whether to ease military equipment export rules, in part because without a change, the UK would not be able to sell any jet fighters it builds with Japan, former Japanese minister of defense Itsunori Onodera said.
10. China-Russia Economic and Political Ties
Putin's Few Oil Buyers Demand Deep Discounts – Bloomberg
Russia is still selling plenty of its crude, but the shrinking pool of buyers is throwing its weight around
Russia's Ozon to open China office to boost cross-border sales – Reuters
Russian online retailer Ozon Holdings (OZON.O) said on Monday it was opening an office in Shenzhen in China to boost cross-border sales to Russian shoppers on its platform.
Chinese FM meets Russian ambassador to China – Xinhua
Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Sunday met with new Russian Ambassador to China Igor Morgulov.
Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, welcomed the ambassador to take up his new post in China, adding that both China and Russia are committed to promoting a multipolar world and do not believe in unipolar hegemony.
v/r,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.