The Xi-Putin meeting; Chinese submarines' “imitative innovation” of Russian tech
Putin's comments at Valdai
Xi and Putin are slated to meet in Beijing in little over a week. I’ll be watching oil and natural gas developments very closely. The heads of Rosneft and Gazprom are set to accompany Putin on his visit to Beijing, according to reporting from Reuters.
Also, am analysis from the US Naval War College suggests that the PLA(N) has made advances in submarine quieting technology based on "imitative innovation" of Russian technology.
The article is timely. I’ve been wondering about Russia’s submarines and technology lately, and Moscow’s ability – or even willingness – to safeguard its most precious technologies from Beijing.
As The Report wrote in January, Russian security services’ HUMINT and SIGINT capabilities have been severely degraded by the war in Ukraine. On the other hand, PRC HUMINT likely suffered immensely from Beijing’s extended zero-COVID policies. China’s lack of outbound travelers during zero-COVID presumably made it much easier for Russia’s counterintelligence services to identify and defeat Chinese case officers attempting to collect information from sources. On balance, however, PRC security services are likely much more capable relative to their Russian counterparts than was true before the invasion, and may have stolen several key technologies.
Of course, it’s possible that the Kremlin is willingly transferring select Russia technologies to China. More on this later, perhaps.
I’ll have several China-Russia pieces coming out soon. The rest of this month will be very busy but I’ll try to publish a couple of updates to CRR. Thanks for reading. – Joe
Table of Contents:
Putin’s comments on China at Valdai
Submarines and Russian technology
Energy
Taiwan; Arctic; Putin on “economic dictatorship”; Campbell on China-Russia ties
1. Putin’s comments on China at Valdai
Valdai International Discussion Club meeting – The Kremlin
Some are trying to sow doubts, suggesting that our Eurasian development project – the Eurasian Economic Union’s project, and President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative – might not share the same interests and might start competing with each other. As I have said many times, this is not the case. On the contrary, we believe that one project complements the other harmoniously.
Let us see where we stand now. Both China and Russia – Russia to a greater extent today, but China long before the events in Ukraine began – have been targeted with various kinds of sanctions by some of our partners; we know by whom exactly. At some point, these steps escalated to a kind of trade war between China and the United States, as the sanctions imposed on your country included restrictions on logistics.
We are interested in establishing new logistics routes, and China is also interested in this. Our trade is growing. We are now talking about the North – South corridor. China is developing supply chains through Central Asian states. We are interested in supporting this project, and we are building roads and railways toward this end. This is on the agenda of our negotiations. That’s the first point.
Secondly, there is a segment called real production and it is being added to the equation. We export goods to China, and China supplies us with goods we need. We are building logistics and production chains that are definitely in line with the goals that President Xi Jinping has set for the Chinese economy and are in line with our goals, which include economic growth and partnerships with other countries, especially in the modern world. These goals are clearly complementary.
I am not going to list specific projects now, but there are plenty of them, including those between China and Russia. We have built a bridge, as you know, and we have other logistical plans. As I said, we are expanding ties in the real economy. All the above will be the subject of our bilateral contacts and negotiations in multilateral formats. This is broad, voluminous, and capital-intensive work.
Once again, I would like to emphasise this: we have never targeted any of these efforts against anyone. This work from the beginning has been creative in nature and is aimed exclusively at achieving positive results for both of us – for Russia and China – and for our partners around the world.
…
Take relations between the West and the People’s Republic of China. There was a time when they were trying – and not without success – to pit China against the Soviet Union and Russia, because China was the weakest, it wasn’t scary. Now that China has begun to grow, under the leadership of the Communist Party and President Xi Jinping today, its power is increasing almost every day, it is different now, it comes around. And back then, when they tried to use China, they forgot about all the ideological differences, but now they are being revived again. But, in essence, US policy towards China is based on geopolitical fears. The growing power of China is what frightens them, and not the fact that human rights are violated there or the rights of ethnic minorities. Does this really bother anyone? No, it is just a tool to fight China, that’s all. The same goes to Russia.
Comment: Putin made relatively few China-related comments and concentrated his attention on criticizing Western elites.
Putin at Valdai (continued): - The Kremlin
Stefan Huth: My name is Stefan Huth. I am from Germany, from the newspaper Junge Welt [editor’s note: a pro-Kremlin far-left outlet].
The special military operation in Ukraine is often justified with anti-fascist motives. You said: We have to free the Ukrainian people from the Nazis, we have to drive them out, we have to liberate the country.
Against this background, it must seem somewhat confusing that you on a high governmental level, are in contact with such right-wing parties as the Rassemblement National [National Rally] or the AfD – Alternative for Germany – parties which are deeply rooted in a racist environment. They do not have any sympathy for the Russian people, one can assume. They do not have any sympathy for Russia as being a multi-ethnic people, which you just stressed in your speech.
I would like to know, what do you hope for? What does your Government hope for from such contacts, and what are the criteria for having contacts with parties like that? Can you understand that anti-fascists in Western Europe see this as a contradiction to your politics?
Vladimir Putin: Excuse me, please, I would ask you to be more specific: what do you mean when talking about fascist forces and pro-fascist parties, about their attitude towards Russia and so on? Please be direct and specific, otherwise we will speak in undertones, but it is best that we speak directly.
Stefan Huth: The head of the AfD Tino Chrupalla had a contact, an official meeting with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in 2020. This was a sort of an official meeting. Part of AfD, Björn Höcke for instance, is deeply rooted in the fascist movement in Germany. He went to demonstrations with Nazis.
So this is really confusing to anti-fascists in Germany. It is a contradiction to your policy. We sort of recognise that, at least partly.
Vladimir Putin: What do you see and what can you provide to confirm what you said, that their activities are based on some kind of fascist, pro-fascist national socialist ideas? Can you tell me specifically what exactly is this about?
Stefan Huth: Björn Höcke, for example, he is linked up with fascists. He demonstrates in Dresden regularly during the anniversary of the Allied bombing, together with fascists, and he is linked up with them. This is one of the reasons why Germany’s interior secret service observes this party, saying they are right-wing.
Vladimir Putin: I see. Look, you started with Ukraine and asked me whether it is fair that we publicly declare that we are striving for the denazification of the Ukrainian political system. But we just discussed the situation in the Canadian parliament, when the President of Ukraine stood and applauded a Nazi who killed Jews, Russians, and Poles.
Does not this show that we rightfully call Ukraine’s current system a pro-Nazi one? The leader of the state stands and applauds a Nazi, not just an ideological follower of Nazism, but a real Nazi, a former SS soldier. Is this not a sign of the Nazification of Ukraine? Does not this give us the right to talk about its denazification?
But you may answer: yes, this is the head of state, but this is not the whole country. And I would reply: you spoke about those who go to rallies together with pro-fascists. Is this the whole party that comes to these rallies? Probably not.
We certainly condemn everything pro-fascist, pro-Nazi. We support everything that has no such signs, but on the contrary, that is aimed at establishing contacts.
As far as I know, an assassination attempt was made on one of the leaders of the Alternative for Germany, recently, during the election campaign. What does this point to? That representatives of this party either use Nazi methods or these Nazi methods are used against them? This is a question for a painstaking researcher, including in your person and in the person of the general public of the Federal Republic itself.
As for the anti-fascist forces, we have always been with them, we know their attitude towards Russia. We are grateful to them for this attitude and certainly support it.
I think that everything that is aimed at reviving, at maintaining relations between us, should be supported, and this can be the light at the end of the tunnel of our current relations.
Comment: A rather bizarre dialogue as an individual on the far-left discovers(?) that Putin also supports the far-right. Putin appears to be referencing a recent event involving Tino Chrupalla, a leading figure in the far-right AfD party. Churpalla claims he was attacked; German authorities say there is no evidence he was attacked or even approached.
2. Submarines and Russian technology
That puts construction on schedule to have the boats operational by 2030, the timeline stated in the Pentagon's annual reports on China's military.
The research also details potential breakthroughs in specific areas, including pump-jet propulsion and internal quieting devices, based on "imitative innovation" of Russian technology.
Comments: More on this later, perhaps, but it seems entirely possible that PRC obtained the technology via voluntary or involuntary technology transfer from Russia.
After nearly 50 years since the first Type 091 SSN was commissioned, China is finally on the verge of producing world-class nuclear-powered submarines. This report argues that the propulsion, quieting, sensors, and weapons capabilities of the Type 095 SSGN could approach Russia’s Improved Akula I class SSN. The Type 095 will likely be equipped with a pump jet propulsor, a freefloating horizontal raft, a hybrid propulsion system, and 12-18 vertical launch system tubes able to accommodate anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles. China’s newest SSBN, the Type 096, will likewise see significant improvements over its predecessor, with the potential to compare favorably to Russia’s Dolgorukiy class SSBN in the areas of propulsion, sensors, and weapons, but more like the Improved Akula I in terms of quieting. If this analysis is correct, the introduction of the Type 095 and Type 096 would have profound implications for U.S. undersea security.
Trump Said to Have Revealed Nuclear Submarine Secrets to Australian Businessman – NYT
Soon after leaving office, the former president shared sensitive information about American submarines with a billionaire member of Mar-a-Lago, according to people familiar with the matter.
Chinese Drones Flow To Training Centers Linked To Russian War In Ukraine – Reid Standish for RFE/RL
More than a year after DJI -- the preeminent Chinese drone maker -- first said it would stop doing business in Russia and Ukraine, its products continue to play a decisive role on the battlefield, with new research shared with RFE/RL showing that they are being sold to Russian companies and training centers with links to Moscow's war effort.
Russia announces preliminary investigation results of Luna-25 probe accident – People’s Daily
The Russian National Aerospace Corporation announced on the 3rd that the accident of the Russian "Luna-25" probe was likely related to the abnormal operation of the airborne integrated control system.
3. Energy
Launch of Russian gas supplies to Uzbekistan via Kazakhstan – The Kremlin
Putin: The contract on the export of Russian gas to Uzbekistan and the agreement on its transportation via Kazakhstan were signed during the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in June. Pursuant to these documents, Russia will supply 2.8 billion cubic metres of gas to consumers in Uzbekistan within the next two years. Comment: That’s a trivial amount of gas. Russia would ship about 200 billion cubic meters of gas every year to Europe in “normal” times.
President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev: “I would like to highlight the project’s role in strengthening regional stability and energy security of Central Asia. More than 20,000 kilometres of mains pipelines with an annual throughput capacity of up to 255 billion cubic metres pass through Kazakhstan, and our country is interested in using its transit potential in full and is ready to further increase the volume of Russian gas deliveries.”
Comment: On the other hand, Russia may export more volumes to Central Asia (and indirectly to China). Worth watching these developments very closely and carefully.
4. Taiwan; Arctic; Putin on “economic dictatorship”; Campbell on China-Russia ties
How does Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affect Taiwanese perceptions about their own defense? Despite frequent comparisons of the war in Ukraine with a potential invasion of Taiwan, existing analyses do not directly measure Taiwanese public perceptions of a linkage. Using survey data from the Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research, we identify not only the extent of concern about the war but also how this corresponds to worries about a Chinese invasion, confidence in Taiwan’s ability to win such a war, and belief about US defensive commitments to Taiwan.
China Is Gaining Long-Coveted Role in Arctic, as Russia Yields – WSJ
Isolated over Ukraine invasion, Moscow seeks Beijing’s help as it ships more oil east through polar routes
World getting rid of dictatorships forcing others into economic servitude — Putin – TASS
The world is gradually getting rid of isolated dictatorships that try to force others into economic servitude, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday.
"The world is gradually getting rid of the dictatorship of a financial and economic model aimed at driving into debt and servitude, turning into economic colonies and depriving entire regions of the world of resources for development," Putin said. Few people, he said, want such a future. "Therefore, building a multipolar world order that is more democratic, honest and fair for the majority of humanity is simply inevitable, historically necessary," he said.
Kurt Campbell on Grand Strategy & the Future of US-China – China Talk
I think President Xi, in certain circumstances, has shown a propensity to take certain risks, but also has been careful in other circumstances and, if anything, I find elements of his approach not easy to predict. I wouldn’t have anticipated, for instance, such a deep Chinese commitment to President Putin. It doesn’t seem to me to be fundamentally in Chinese interests.
Comment: I’ve also been surprised by the PRC’s commitment to Putin throughout the invasion, given the manifold - and predictable - damage the war has done to the Chinese economy.
Joe Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and editor of the China-Russia Report. This article represents his own personal opinion.
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.