Ukraine conflict risks rising

People’s Daily appears to signal support for Putin

What a day. Russian behavior surrounding Belarus and Ukraine is increasingly provocative. Lukashenko announced that Russian and Belarussian forces will conduct “joint combat alert patrols along the Union State’s borders with Poland, the Baltic states and Ukraine.” Meanwhile Putin’s aggressive rhetoric vis-à-vis Ukraine continues, with Russia’s OSCE representative accusing Kyiv of misleading the international community and launching an offensive operation in late October. According to Bloomberg, the US has reportedly warned European allies that Russia may plan a Ukrainian invasion.

This morning, the People’s Daily published an odd, out-of-place article about the 1964 Gulf of Tonkin incident. The PD writes in the “Gulf of Tonkin Incident a clear-cut example of US escalation, warmongering towards other countries”:

The Gulf of Tonkin Incident, which led to further escalation in the Vietnam War, turned out to be an insidious lie fabricated by the United States.

Lyndon Baines Johnson, the president of the US at the time, appeared on national television to announce on Aug. 4, 1964 that patrol torpedo boats of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam had attacked US destroyers, with the destroyers and supporting aircraft having “acted at once” on the president’s orders to engage the offending targets. Following this incident, the US Congress passed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, which authorized President Johnson to take any measures he believed were necessary to fully retaliate.

However, the so-called provocation was in fact wholly baseless. A report released by the National Security Agency (NSA) in 2005 revealed that it was highly unlikely that the named vessels of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam were involved during the reported incident of Aug. 4. Files from the US Navy showed that two US destroyers fired off nearly 400 shells and five depth charges. James Stockdale, one of the pilots at the Gulf of Tonkin Incident, recalled that the US destroyers were just shooting at phantom targets. In the end, there were absolutely no patrol torpedo boats to be found in their vicinity. There was nothing surrounding them but the deep black depth of the waters below and excessive American firepower above.

Even without the Gulf of Tonkin Incident, the US would most certainly have found some other excuses in any case to go ahead with its unilateral intervention in the Vietnam War, as the country’s real aim was to maintain American hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region.

Why is the PRC’s authoritative media outlet writing about the Gulf of Tonkin now? The anniversaries of the Gulf of Tonkin Incident and Gulf of Tonkin Resolution both occurred in early August. The article could very well reflect another banal chapter in the PRC’s long-running campaign to discredit the US security community. The more likely explanation, however, is that Beijing believes that a conflict in Eastern Europe is increasingly probable: it may be using this article to semi-deniably communicate with and influence various audiences in the run-up to a potential conflict.

First, the PD’s article is a deniable, nearly costless way for the PRC to signal support for Putin without committing Beijing to any specific action. Second, by suggesting support for Putin’s actions, Beijing may be hinting at some degree of coordination with Moscow, forcing Washington to divert military and political resources to the Indo-Pacific and degrading NATO’s ability to respond to Russian aggression. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the article likely intends to influence discourse in security bureaucracies and policymaking processes, particularly in Europe. By preemptively undercutting US narrative reliability on military matters, the PRC may be attempting to undermine NATO/EU unity and sway opinion in third-party countries, should a confrontation or conflict occur.

The article may intend to inject additional doubt and uncertainty in the first few hours and days of any confrontation or conflict, buying authoritarian forces precious time should a military incident in Europe AND/OR the Indo-Pacific occur in the coming weeks.

Interestingly, the People’s Daily published the “Gulf of Tonkin” article at 10 AM Brussels time, about 8 hours before Bloomberg broke the news of the US warning Europe about a potential Russian invasion.  

v/r,

Joe Webster

The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.