US says Beijing providing “very substantial” help to Russian war efforts

Apparent voluntary tech transfer of submarine and other military items

In a highly significant development, the United States' Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said in comments reported by Politico Europe that:

“Beijing is giving Moscow "very substantial" help to beef up its war machine, and in return Russia is handing over its closely guarded military tech on submarines and missiles, the United States' Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said Tuesday.

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"The capabilities that Russia is providing is support in areas where previously they had been frankly reluctant to engage directly with China," Campbell said. "We are concerned about a particular number of military arenas where there appears to be some determination to provide China with greater support.

"That has to do with submarine operations, activities of aeronautical design, including stealth; that also involves capacities on missile capabilities," he said.”

You can read the full article here.

I’ll publish a longer think piece later this month or early in October, but Russia’s potential transfer of submarine technologies could have profound implications for the military balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, and for Russia’s own strategic deterrent.

The transfer of Russian military technologies could impact the security balance in the Indo-Pacific in the medium-term, after the PRC force structures absorb and incorporate the new technologies and information. Chinese submarines are generally noisy but have improved in recent years. Indeed, Russian tech may have already aided Chinese submarine development, either voluntarily or involuntarily. The PLAN has likely become a more capable fighting force due to Moscow’s apparent decision to transfer crucial military technologies, especially in submarines.

Why would Moscow transfer some of its most vital military secrets? It’s possible that Moscow believes the transfer of submarine and other advanced military technologies to the PRC is more or less inevitable. Russian signals and human intelligence have been battered in recent years (as a CRR article described in early 2023). Russia’s SIGINT capabilities were always outclassed by the PRC and the United States but have deteriorated due to the invasion of Ukraine and the resulting exodus of Russian IT professionals, as well as the PRC’s continued encroachment on Russian telecommunications infrastructure, including via Huawei’s incorporation into Russian 5G. Turning to HUMINT, Russia has traditionally been the world leader at human intelligence, but these capabilities have been degraded by the technologization of espionage and the rise of sensors and surveillance; the expulsion of so many of its intelligence officers across the West operating under diplomatic cover; and the operational tempo of intelligence operations dictated by the war in Ukraine, which appears to have led to the capture or compromise of significant numbers of Russian intelligence officers operating under non-official cover (i.e. as “illegals” working outside of embassies).

Therefore, given its growing inferiority vis-à-vis Beijing’s security services in both signals and human intelligence, Moscow appears to have decided to turn over some of its most valuable military secrets now, in exchange for short-term assistance prosecuting the war in Ukraine, instead of engaging in the potentially futile exercise to hide them from the PRC. Sharing the information was quite possibly the “correct” strategic decision on Moscow’s part, at least on Putin’s terms. Putin’s highest priority is regime survival, and bartering Russia’s military secrets for short-term wartime assistance likely increases his probability of securing a “good enough” result in the war in Ukraine and seeing off challenges to his regime.

But the decision to turn over Russian submarine technology could pose profound threats to Russia’s long-term security interests, especially surrounding its strategic nuclear deterrent. While Russia’s strategic deterrent is secure for the foreseeable future, it lacks the economic resources and the technological wherewithal to compete in any potential strategic arms race between the PRC and a United States-led military alliance. Technological advances in directed-energy weapons, anti-ballistic missiles, and artificial intelligence, among others, pose long-term threats to Russia’s strategic deterrent. The submarine leg of its triad may have been the most resilient in the face of these technological changes (part of the reason why Russia has apparently sunk vast sums into developing a nuclear-armed torpedo). Putin’s decision to share submarine technology with the PRC will potentially allow the PLAN to counteract its submarine capabilities, further eroding Moscow’s strategic deterrent vis-à-vis Beijing.

More on this soon.

Until next time,

Joe Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and editor of the China-Russia Report. This article represents his own personal opinion.

The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.