Wang Yi calls Ukrainian counterpart
Zelensky assassination plot reportedly foiled
Short newsletter. I wrote an update earlier today for SupChina. Expect nasty urban warfare and more destruction in the days ahead. Sad and infuriating.
Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Wang Yi said that the situation in Ukraine has changed rapidly. China deplores the outbreak of conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and is extremely concerned about the harm to civilians. China's basic position on the Ukraine issue is open, transparent and consistent. We have always advocated respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries. In response to the current crisis, China calls on Ukraine and Russia to find a solution to the problem through negotiations, and supports all constructive international efforts that are conducive to a political solution.
Comment: Some observers noted the “sovereignty and territorial integrity” piece of these comments, as well as the expressed concern for civilian casualties, and concluded that Chinese policy was shifting. I disagree: while China may be trying to disassociate itself from Putin ahead of what could be very ugly urban warfare, I expect little change to the substance of Beijing’s “pro-Russia neutrality.”
Reuters: Taiwan has sent relief supplies to Ukraine. Is China prepared to provide humanitarian assistance to the country?
Wang Wenbin: China is ready to play a constructive role in easing the situation in Ukraine. We will release relevant information in due course. [Comment: Interesting that Wang didn’t challenge the assumption that Taiwan and China are separate entities, although I don’t have much experience following these press conferences. The original exchange in Chinese is below. A better translation of the Reuters question may have been “Is the Chinese side prepared to provide”?]
路透社记者：台湾已经发送一些救援物资到乌克兰。请问中方是否准备向乌克兰提供人道援助？
汪文斌：中方愿为缓和乌克兰局势发挥建设性作用。相关消息我们会适时发布。
The following question was raised after the press conference: Some Chinese citizens have reportedly left Ukraine recently. Can you share some details and the work China has done? What are the follow-up evacuation arrangements?
Wang Wenbin: At present, Chinese citizens in Ukraine are heading to neighboring countries of Ukraine in various ways. In this process, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Chinese Embassy in Ukraine, the Chinese Consulate General in Odessa, and embassies in Ukraine’s neighboring countries including Moldova, Slovakia, Romania and Poland have found ways and mobilized all resources and forces possible to provide support and assistance for our compatriots in Ukraine. About 1,000 Chinese citizens in Ukraine have by far safely relocated.
Comment: There are about ~5,000 Chinese citizens still in-country, although the true number is unknowable, of course.
People’s Daily
According to Russian media sources, the next round of negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations will be held on March 2. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said on the 1st that Ukraine believes that such negotiations are needed but does not accept Russia's "ultimatum".
——TASS quoted sources as saying on the 1st that according to the original agreement, a new round of negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations should be held on March 2. The place of negotiation is on the border between Belarus and Poland.
——Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said at a press conference on the 1st that on whether to hold a new round of Ukraine-Russia negotiations, the Ukrainian side believes that such negotiations are needed but does not accept Russia's "ultimatum". Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian delegation that ended the previous day did not achieve the results that the Ukrainian side expected.
The Russian Presidential Press Service announced on the 1st that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree on supplementary temporary measures to ensure financial stability, aimed at maintaining Russia's financial stability.
The news said that [According to the announcement?] the United States and some countries and international organizations that follow the United States have taken restrictive measures against Russian citizens and legal entities. In response to such unfriendly actions and violations of international law, Russia has decided to take supplementary measures to protect Russian national interests and maintain domestic financial stability.
UN chief calls for funds for Ukraine humanitarian aid, end to conflict – People’s Daily
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Tuesday called for resources to meet the increasing humanitarian needs in Ukraine and for efforts to end the conflict.
"The international community must give them our unequivocal support. We must help Ukrainians help each other through this terrible time," he said at the launch of a flash appeal for Ukraine and a regional refugee response plan for neighboring countries.
The three-month flash appeal for Ukraine requires 1.1 billion U.S. dollars to meet the humanitarian needs of more than 6 million people affected and displaced by military operations. The regional response plan needs 551 million dollars to help Ukrainians who have fled across borders, principally to Poland, Hungary, Romania and Moldova.
Worth your time
What Did Xi Know? – Noah Barkin for the German Marshall Fund’s Watching China in Europe
What did Russian President Vladimir Putin tell his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping about his plans to invade Ukraine when the two met one month ago in Beijing and vowed “no limits” to their cooperation? We may never know for sure. But in European capitals the assumption is that Putin did give Xi a signal about his intentions. Weeks later, with the Beijing Winter Olympics out of the way, Russian troops stormed into Ukraine from the north, east, and south. China’s awkward rhetorical dance since then—voicing support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity but refusing to criticize Russia, and suggesting the invasion was provoked by the United States and NATO—will not be forgotten soon in Europe.
…
The historic policy shifts in Germany in response to Ukraine will resonate across Europe and NATO—and the relationship with China will not be immune. In a speech to the German parliament on Sunday, Social Democrat Rolf Mützenich called out Xi, urging him to denounce Putin’s aggression or risk lasting damage to China’s credibility. It was one thing for Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to issue such a warning at the Munich Security Conference last month, but quite another to hear it from the Social Democrats’ leading foreign policy dove.
Comment: I just signed up for the Watching China in Europe newsletter. It’s well done.
Zelensky assassination plot foiled, Ukrainian authorities say – Axios
Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council chief Oleksiy Danilov announced during a briefing Tuesday that Ukrainian forces had foiled an assassination plot against President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to a Telegram post from Ukrainian authorities.
Comment: Ukrainian authorities claimed that they eliminated a Kadyrovite group after receiving a tip-off from the FSB. I’m skeptical that Chechens were tasked with a sabotage/assassination mission. Still, it’s highly plausible that elements in the FSB leaked the locations of the Chechens to the Ukrainians. Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen warlord, is hated by many siloviki, and siloviki may have used a conflict to settle scores with internal enemies before. While there remains an air of mystery to the 2018 Syrian firefight between elite US forces and Wagner mercenaries (which included some Russians), there were unconfirmed rumors that elements in the Russian security establishment purposefully sent rivals into an unwinnable firefight. It’s quite plausible that some siloviki tipped off the Ukrainians in order to have some of Kadyrov’s men killed.
While the Kadryovite plot may or may not have materialized, it’s clear that one of Putin’s initial goals in the campaign was to decapitate Kyiv’s political leadership. Remember when some commentators mocked President Zelensky over his fears of assassination?
v/r,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.