Why Xi was not in “shock”
Why Xi was not in “shock”
“Pro-Russia neutrality”
In an article for Stimson, The Ukraine Crisis: Beijing’s Support of Russia and Its Limit, Yun Sun writes:
“The most direct reaction on the morning of February 22 in the Chinese policy community is a sense of shock. Having subscribed to the theory that Putin was only posturing and that U.S. intelligence was inaccurate as in the case of invading Iraq, the Chinese were not anticipating a real invasion by Russia. For the Chinese, Putin’s brinksmanship had achieved his goals of forcing the U.S. and Europe back to the negotiation table, driving a wedge between NATO allies, inflating energy prices, and deterring NATO expansion, and, therefore, there was no need to follow through at the risk of severe sanctions.”
Was the Chinese policy community really in a sense of “shock”? Or might Beijing be trying to conducting an influence campaign and trying to put some distance between itself and Putin’s invasion? There is a very high probability – a near certainty, in my view – that the Chinese Communist Party knew an invasion was coming, even if they weren’t informed about the exact date.
Putin may have implicitly or even explicitly warned Xi Jinping about his invasion plans. Putin, whatever else he may be, is no fool and knew that launching a war would have major implications for Chinese interests, and it is highly plausible that Xi directly asked Putin to delay an invasion. For whatever reason, Putin waited until after the conclusion of the Chinese Olympics to launch an invasion.
Even if Putin withheld details, Xi Jinping and the CCP would almost certainly have been able to use the PRC’s intelligence capabilities to independently confirm the upcoming invasion. The Russian military build-up was extremely observable: so-called “open source intelligence” (that is, freely public information) showed Russian social media users posting countless videos of vehicles moving to the Ukrainian border; satellite images showed that Russian forces were readying field hospitals (a leading indicator of military escalation). The Chinese government would have also had more access to information not available in the public domain: namely, corroborative methods and/or human sources in Russia, NATO, and Ukraine.
Chinese analysts certainly had enough data from collection efforts. A failure to piece the dots together would represent an extraordinary and perhaps unprecedented analytical failure from an intelligence service. While there is a long history of policymakers failing to heed warnings from their intelligence services, the CCP’s actions and public diplomacy efforts suggest it anticipated some sort of escalation.
Finally, the CCP’s appears to have been alert to escalation risks since at least early November. If Xi and policy makers were in “shock” then why did the People’s Daily’s Russian section shut down for over three months, starting in early November? Why did nearly the entire Chinese messaging apparatus – from the Foreign Ministry to state media – maintain a “curious silence” over the world’s top geopolitical story? The simplest answer, of course, is that the CCP anticipated an escalation but was caught between its security relationship with Russia, on the one hand, and its economic ties to the West, on the other. Xi Jinping and the CCP policymaking apparatus were almost certainly not in “shock” when the invasion occurred.
Finally, some notes on “de-nazification“ (去纳粹化): I haven’t seen any Chinese-language state media outlets refer to the supposed “de-nazification” campaign in Ukraine, except when quoting Putin. There’s also really good article at FT on the PRC’s pro-Russia neutrality – it’s worth your time.
Housekeeping: I don’t plan to send any more updates for a couple of days but will send a newsletter if circumstances warrant.
Table of Contents:
1) The Foreign Ministry
2) The People’s Daily – English language
3) Other English-language articles
4) People’s Daily “Situation in Ukraine” Site
5) People’s Daily Russian affairs section briefly returns, then stops updating again
1) The Foreign Ministry
On February 26, 2022, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone conversation with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock at the latter's request.
The two sides exchanged views with a focus on the current situation in Ukraine.
Wang Yi said, China pays close attention to the evolving situation in Ukraine and supports all efforts conducive to easing the situation and political settlement. With regards to European security issues, all countries' legitimate concerns should be taken seriously. In the context of NATO's five consecutive rounds of eastward expansion, Russia's legitimate security demands ought to be properly addressed. [Comment: Does Beijing believe that the Baltic states and Poland have the right legitimate security demands? Does Ukraine have legitimate security demands?]
Wang Yi said, the Cold War has long gone, and it's necessary for NATO to reconsider its positioning and responsibilities. China believes that the Cold War mentality based on bloc confrontation should be completely discarded. China supports NATO, the EU and Russia in resuming dialogue aimed at building a balanced, effective and sustained European security mechanism, so as to achieve lasting peace and stability on the European continent.
Wang Yi said, China disapproves of the use of sanctions to solve problems, still less unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law. It has long been proved that sanctions, far from being a solution, will only create new problems. Sanctions will not only cause a lose-lose or all-lose situation in economy, but also disrupt or impact on the political settlement process.
Wang Yi said, as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China has always fulfilled its responsibility to maintain international peace and security. We believe that should the Security Council take action, it should contribute to a political settlement of the current crisis rather than instigate new antagonism and confrontation. In view of this, when the Security Council discussed the resolution related to the Ukraine issue, China prevented quoting expressions that contain the authorization of the use of force and sanctions. China will continue to play a constructive role in seeking and realizing peace.
Comment: As Edward Wong points out, there’s no mention of Ukrainian sovereignty in this call. In fact, Wang Yi doesn’t mention Ukrainian sovereignty in any of the three calls with European leaders.
On February 25, 2022, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone conversation with High Representative of the European Union (EU) for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell Fontelles.
Wang Yi said, China has always taken a positive attitude in advancing China-EU relations. China-EU cooperation is the mainstream, and competition and confrontation are undesirable. The two sides should strengthen communication, enhance trust and dispel misgivings, make joint preparations for this year's China-EU leaders' meeting, and promote steady and sustainable development of China-EU relations.
Wang Yi said, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of each country should be respected. Lithuania openly created the false impression of "one China, one Taiwan", which has strained relations between the two countries. [Comment: The most consequential sovereignty and territorial integrity issue on February 25th was… Beijing’s spat with Lithuania?] The Taiwan-related issue concerning Lithuania is not an issue between China and the EU, but a bilateral issue between China and Lithuania; it is not an economic and trade issue but a political issue. China always keeps the door open for dialogue with Lithuania. As long as Lithuania takes actions to correct its mistakes, does not undermine the one-China principle in the international community and abandons the practice of creating the false impression of "one China, one Taiwan", the issue between China and Lithuania will be solved instantly and bilateral relations will return to normal. The EU side should prevent the issues between China and Lithuania from magnifying and getting more complicated, and avoid being taken China-EU relations hostage with the conflicts between China and Lithuania. The EU side should urge Lithuania to return to the right track of adhering to the one-China principle as soon as possible.
Borrell said, it is important for the EU and China to strengthen exchanges and enhance mutual trust. The EU is ready to make joint efforts with China to prepare for the EU-China leaders' meeting this year. Both sides should be committed to resolving difficulties through dialogue and managing differences in a responsible manner. The one-China principle is the common policy of the EU and serves as the cornerstone of the EU's policy on China. The EU will work hard to ensure this right direction.
The two sides also exchanged in-depth views on the Ukraine issue.
We are mobilising support for the vote in the UN Security Council this evening. We know that Russia will veto this proposal, but then it will go to the UN General Assembly. There we will have the temperature; we will see how many people support the condemnation of the aggressive attitude of Russia.
To prepare this I have spoken to Foreign Ministers of China, India and others to explain to them that this is not about Ukraine. This is about the respect for international rules and the UN Charter.
On February 25, 2022, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone conversation with French President's Diplomatic Advisor Emmanuel Bonne.
Wang Yi said, not long ago, President Xi Jinping and President Emmanuel Macron had their first phone conversation this year, and reached new cooperation consensus. The Olympic Winter Games Beijing 2022 has come to a successful conclusion, and both Chinese and French athletes have achieved good results. France is welcome to actively participate in the Beijing 2022 Paralympic Winter Games. France is a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a major country with a tradition of independence. China is willing to maintain close communication with the French side, jointly promote the opening up of a new horizon in bilateral relations and make new contributions to the sound and stable development of China-EU relations.
Bonne said, France always attaches great importance to developing France-China relations and is ready to strengthen high-level exchanges, enhance dialogue and deepen cooperation with China to jointly push for the vigorous development of bilateral relations.
The two sides exchanged views on the Ukraine issue. Both China and France held that the most urgent task is to push the parties concerned to start diplomatic negotiations as soon as possible to ease tensions, and called on abandoning the mentality of bloc confrontation and seeking a solution that accommodates the concerns of all parties.
Comment: The French side still hasn’t released their version of the call, but I strongly doubt that they would characterize the call the same way, particularly surrounding “bloc confrontation”
2) The People’s Daily – English language
UN Security Council adopts resolution requesting UNGA emergency session on Ukraine – People’s Daily Feb 28
The UN Security Council (UNSC) on Sunday adopted Resolution 2623 that calls for an "emergency special session" of the UN General Assembly to consider and recommend collective action on the Ukraine crisis.
It is the first such a resolution that the council has adopted in four decades, according to the Security Council Report.
The UNSC on Friday failed to adopt a draft resolution on Ukraine.
Russia, Ukraine to meet at Ukrainian-Belarusian border as fighting continues – People’s Daily Feb 28
* Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict came a ray of hope as Russia and Ukraine agreed to meet at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.
* Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, after his previous refusal, said Ukraine would meet with Russia "without prior conditions" at the border. [Comment: perhaps President Zelensky refused to meet earlier because Russia sought the surrender of Ukrainian troops as a pre-condition?]
* As Russian troops were advancing, residents took to underground metro stations together with their pets to stay safe amid the airstrikes.
* As the military conflict entered a fourth day, the international community continued to call for a peaceful solution.
…
Earlier Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the country's deterrence forces to be placed on "a special mode of combat duty" in a meeting with top defense officials, accusing Western countries of imposing "illegitimate sanctions" against Russia's economy.
HORRIFIED RESIDENTS
Another disturbing night fell on Kiev on Saturday, as heavy, black smoke, apparently some distance from the Motherland Monument, billowed.
As Russian troops were advancing, most residents took to underground metro stations together with their pets to stay safe amid the airstrikes.
Vera, a 30-year-old resident who only gave her first name, told Xinhua that her family had hardly slept for three days. "How can one sleep when explosions and sirens are constantly heard?" She asked.
Vera's house has an underground parking lot. Whenever there was an air raid alert, she and her family would rush over for shelter.
"It's especially difficult for a child. Almost every time my daughter cries," she said.
Since the Ukrainian government decreed a state of emergency on Feb. 24, a series of crossfires, explosions and shellings have rocked the capital city. On Friday, a residential building at Lobanovsky Street was hit by a missile and set ablaze, according to a Telegram video posted by Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko.
Living in a nine-story building in Kiev, 43-year-old plumber Bogdan said that occupants of the block are using a long-deserted basement as a bomb shelter.
"We took it (rubbish) out with the whole house for several hours in a row, then we put electricity in the basement. Now we spend the night there with the children," said Bogdan, a father of two sons.
At first, Bogdan was able to convince his kids that "it's almost a hike -- we sleep on mats and in sleeping bags."
"But yesterday the trick didn't work -- my elder son cried for half the night because he was afraid that a rocket would hit the house," Bogdan said. "I don't think my children deserve this."
"From time to time, we think of leaving the city," said Vera, "but we do not know where to run."
FIGHTING CONTINUES
Earlier Sunday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a delegation including representatives of the Foreign Ministry, the Defense Ministry and other government agencies has arrived in Belarus.
Meanwhile, all units were ordered to mount an offensive in accordance with the operation plan, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said during a briefing.
Troops from Lugansk have advanced up to 46 km and captured the settlements of Schastia and Muratovo, while troops from Donetsk have advanced another 10 km from the frontline, reported the ministry Saturday.
According to Ukrainian Health Minister Viktor Liashko, 198 Ukrainians were killed in Russia's military operation.
The Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 975 Ukrainian military infrastructure objects since the fighting began, Konashenkov said Sunday. [Comment: No mention of Russian casualties or losses in this article]
Western countries have taken a military operation in Ukraine off the table while responding with economic sanctions. [Comment: Important that Beijing acknowledged that policy]
Peskov noted that the sanctions have little impact on Russia's top leadership.
On Saturday, the White House said in a joint statement that in concert with the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, Britain and Canada, the United States is supporting the expulsion of "selected Russian banks" from SWIFT, the payment system used for most international financial transactions, "within the coming days," to "further isolate Russia from the international financial system and our economies."
Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said Saturday that the current sanctions against Russia could be a reason to review relations with states that have imposed them, noting that Russia may respond symmetrically to measures taken against Russian citizens and companies abroad, namely by seizing funds of foreigners and foreign companies in Russia.
Additionally, Russian aviation authorities said there would be a "mirror response" to those countries choosing to ban flights for Russian aircraft. Moscow vowed to close its airspace in retaliation.
The shock waves of the conflicts have battered the world's major markets, bringing stocks down to new lows. Due to fears of supply disruptions, crude oil and natural gas prices jumped to multi-year highs.
CALLS FOR PEACEFUL SOLUTION
As the military conflict entered a fourth day, the international community continued to call for a peaceful solution.
During a phone call with his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow is ready for negotiations with "all constructive forces" to resolve the Ukrainian crisis.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement that the situation "is not irreversible," appealing to all parties concerned for protecting civilians and upholding international humanitarian and human rights law.
Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Friday that the Chinese side supports and encourages all diplomatic efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis during his phone talks with British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell as well as Emmanuel Bonne, diplomatic counselor to French President Emmanuel Macron.
During his meeting with Putin in Moscow on Thursday, visiting Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan said that conflict was not in anyone's interest, underlining Pakistan's belief that disputes should be settled through dialogue and diplomacy, according to a statement released by Khan's office.
Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen said on Thursday that "everything must now be done to avoid further escalation and to protect lives."
Chinese FM elaborates on China's basic position on Ukraine issue – People’s Daily Feb 28
Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday elaborated on China's basic position on the Ukraine issue.
Wang also had an in-depth exchange of views on the situation in Ukraine during his phone talks with British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell as well as Emmanuel Bonne, diplomatic counselor to French President Emmanuel Macron, respectively.
On China's basic position on the Ukraine issue, Wang stressed the following five points.
Firstly, China stands for respecting and safeguarding the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries and earnestly abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. China's position is consistent and clear, and it also applies to the Ukraine issue. [Comment: As many have noted, Beijing’s position is not at all clear, or consistent. Does Beijing believe that Ukraine is a country? If so, what gives Russia the right to invade its neighbor?]
Secondly, China advocates the concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, he said.
China believes that a country's security cannot come at the expense of harming others' security, and regional security cannot be guaranteed by reinforcing and even expanding military blocs. And all countries' reasonable security concerns should be respected. The Cold War mentality should be completely abandoned.
Following the five consecutive rounds of eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Russia's legitimate demands on security should be taken seriously and solved in a proper way, Wang added.
Thirdly, China has been following the evolution of the Ukraine issue, and the present situation is something China does not want to see. [Comment: Noteworthy]
It is absolutely imperative that all parties exercise necessary restraint in order to prevent the situation in Ukraine from deteriorating or even getting out of control. The safety of ordinary people's lives and properties should be effectively safeguarded, and in particular, large-scale humanitarian crises have to be prevented.
Fourthly, the Chinese side supports and encourages all diplomatic efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. And China welcomes direct talks and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible.
The Ukraine issue has evolved in a complex historical context. Ukraine should be a bridge of communication between the East and the West, instead of the frontline of confrontations between major countries.
China also supports Europe and Russia in their efforts to hold dialogue on an equal footing over the European security issue, uphold the notion of indivisible security, and eventually form a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism.
Fifthly, China believes that the UN Security Council should play a constructive role in resolving the Ukraine issue and that regional peace and stability as well as the security of all countries should be put first.
Actions taken by the Security Council should reduce the tension rather than add fuel to the flames, and should help advance the settlement of the issue through diplomatic means rather than further escalating the situation.
China is always opposed to wilfully citing the Chapter VII in Security Council resolutions to authorize the use of force and sanctions.
Wang said that China, as a permanent member of the Security Council as well as a responsible major country, has always been faithfully fulfilling its international obligations and playing a constructive role in safeguarding world peace and stability.
When it comes to the peace and security issue, China is a major country with the best record, Wang said, adding that China has never invaded other countries, launched proxy wars, sought spheres of influence or engaged in any military bloc confrontation. [Comment: Worth noting that so much of Chinese “diplomacy” is meant to reinforce domestic messaging, not persuade foreigners. The “never invaded” line is particularly rich, as India, Vietnam, and Korea were invaded by the PRC in living memory.]
China adheres to the path of peace and development, and is committed to building a community with a shared future for mankind, Wang said.
China will continue to firmly reject all hegemonies and strong powers, and firmly safeguard the legitimate and legal rights and interests of developing countries, especially small and medium-sized countries, he added.
3) Other English-language articles
Why the Chinese Internet Is Cheering Russia’s Invasion – NYT
As the world overwhelmingly condemns the assault on Ukraine, online opinion in China is mostly pro-Russia, pro-war and pro-Putin.
Comment: Guess which comments are being censored?
Maria Repnikova on Chinese soft power and Ukraine – Sup China
Some similarities are basically that China still takes a fairly neutral, kind of vague approach to this crisis. There is not so much direct critique of Russia, but, the overarching sentiment is basically that we should resolve this crisis peacefully, and both parties — meaning Ukrainians and Russians — should engage in dialogue and just attempt to resolve this through diplomacy. So basically there’s no explicit blame of Russia.
Xi pursues policy of ‘pro-Russia neutrality’ despite Ukraine war – FT
Evan Medeiros: “But they are clearly privileging their alignment with Russia and pursuing something I would call pro-Russia neutrality.”
4) People’s Daily “Situation in Ukraine” Site
This site is a little difficult to navigate to; the link is here
Zhang Jun [PRC Permanent Representative] said that at present, the situation in Ukraine is changing rapidly. It is imperative that all parties exercise necessary restraint to avoid further deterioration of the situation in Ukraine. China supports and encourages all diplomatic efforts conducive to a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, and welcomes direct dialogue and negotiation between Russia and Ukraine as soon as possible. At the same time, China supports the EU and Russia to conduct equal dialogues on European security issues, uphold the concept of indivisibility of security, and ultimately form a balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism. [Comment: The PRC notably seeks to exclude any US role]
After the recent escalation of the situation in Ukraine, the Security Council held several emergency meetings. In this vote, 11 countries including the United States voted in favor, Russia voted against, and 3 countries including China abstained.
张军表示，当前，乌克兰局势急剧变化。当务之急是各方保持必要克制，避免乌克兰局势进一步恶化。中方支持和鼓励一切有利于和平解决乌克兰危机的外交努力，欢迎俄罗斯同乌克兰尽快举行直接对话谈判。同时，中方支持欧方与俄罗斯就欧洲安全问题进行平等对话，秉持安全不可分割理念，最终形成平衡、有效、可持续的欧洲安全机制。
乌克兰局势近期升温后，安理会多次举行紧急会议。在此次表决中，美国等11个国家投赞成票，俄罗斯投反对票，中国等3个国家投弃权票。
5) People’s Daily Russian affairs section briefly returns, then stops updating again
The People’s Daily is using the “situation in Ukraine” (乌克兰局势) site for updates, as of this writing, although it briefly rehabilitated the Russian affairs section.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at a press conference on the 24th that Ukraine has severed diplomatic relations with Russia.
Zelensky said that the Russian army entered Ukraine, and the Ukrainian armed forces were fighting hard. The Ukrainian army repelled Russian attacks in the Donbas region, as well as in the eastern, northern and southern regions of Ukraine. He said that the Russian army suffered heavy losses and will suffer even more losses.
…
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised speech early on the 24th that he had decided to launch a special military operation in the Donbas region. Putin says Russia has no plans to occupy Ukraine. According to the TASS news agency quoted the Russian Ministry of Defense on the 24th, the Ukrainian military infrastructure is being hit by high-precision weapons, but the Russian armed forces will not carry out artillery or air strikes on Ukrainian cities, and the actions will not threaten civilians.
Comment: Mostly matter-of-fact
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised speech early on the 24th that he had decided to launch a special military operation in the Donbas region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a speech later in the day that Ukraine had decided to sever diplomatic relations with Russia.
…
The international community is deeply concerned about the situation in Russia and Ukraine. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on Russia to withdraw its troops, stressing that "this conflict must cease immediately".
俄罗斯总统普京24日清晨发表电视讲话说，决定在顿巴斯地区发起特别军事行动。乌克兰总统泽连斯基当天晚些时候发表讲话说，乌克兰决定与俄罗斯断绝外交关系。
…
国际社会对俄乌局势深表关切。联合国秘书长古特雷斯呼吁俄罗斯将军队撤回，强调“这场冲突必须立即停止”。
Comment: Notable inclusion of a quote from the UN Secretary-General
Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised speech early on the 24th that he had decided to launch a special military operation in the Donbas region. The sudden escalation of the situation in Ukraine caused great volatility in the global market. Major stock indexes fell significantly, energy prices soared, and the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold rose further.
…
Lyle Aconel, an analyst at Bank of New York Mellon Investment Management Co., said that geopolitical risks are superimposed on the tightening of monetary policy by major central banks, and "market turmoil is expected to continue in the coming months."
Glory to Ukraine,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.