Will Beijing support Putin via Lukashenko?
Lukashenko travels to Beijing, potentially serving as cutout for Chinese aid to Russia.
I don’t have much comment on Wang Yi’s visit to Moscow or Beijing’s “peace proposal” for Ukraine. Instead, I’d encourage you to look at Belarus-China interactions, which may increasingly be a proxy for China-Russia relations. Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko’s impromptu visit to Beijing and meetings with General Secretary Xi, other officials, and Chinese corporations may be another indicator that Beijing is increasingly willing to back Putin more overtly, albeit indirectly, by extending assistance to Minsk.
While Lukashenko appears unlikely to enter the conflict as a combatant, there is a significant risk that Beijing could use Minsk as a cutout for economic and potentially even military assistance for Moscow. Minsk is clearly supporting the war (it allowed Russian troops to invade Ukraine from its territory) and is under Western sanctions – but it is not a combatant. The PRC may be trying to exploit Belarus’ nominally neutral status, find fissures in sanctions, and bolster Putin economically or even militarily.
Table of Contents:
1) Beijing arming Putin?
2) Beijing assisting Lukashenko?
3) Chinese state media backs Russia’s Nord Stream narrative
4) Beijing’s informational and diplomatic support for Moscow
5) Chinese economic support for Russia
6) China-Russia Energy Ties
Midjourney prompt: “A plane flying to China for mysterious reasons” (licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0)
1) Beijing arming Putin?
U.S. Considers Release of Intelligence on China’s Potential Arms Transfer to Russia – WSJ
Western nations have intelligence that Beijing might end its self-imposed restraint on weapons supplies to Moscow
Will Xi Arm Putin? Has a Cold War Already Begun? – China Talk
Georgetown’s Dennis Wilder joined ChinaTalk. He is a longtime CIA veteran who served as an NSC director on the China desk under the Bush administration, spent six years under Obama editing the President’s Daily Brief, and concluded his career in government as the CIA’s Deputy Assistant Director for East Asia and the Pacific.
Dennis Wilder: “If you look at what Xi Jinping has actually said about Putin over recent years: he’s been calling Putin “my best friend and colleague.” He has repeated that line in every meeting.
Xi Jinping is not a warm fuzzy guy, he doesn’t show emotion, and he never calls anybody a friend. I dare you to find anything anywhere of Xi Jinping calling anybody else in this world — even people within his inner circle — a friend. This is not something he does.
I think what it shows is that he has really a personal bond with Putin — he sees himself and Putin in the same place. In other words, they both are under extreme pressure from the United States and the West. They both have a system of government that President Biden and others clearly disdain. And they both feel that, if given the chance, the West would take them down.
So I think these two leaders are bonded in a way that we have not understood — and there’s good reason why we don’t understand it: the inner circle of Xi is very small.
Jordan Schneider: It’s hard for me — sitting here as a person who doesn’t run a country of a billion people — to imagine how it would be if Vladimir Putin was the guy who understood me the most.
Maybe it’s similar to how CEOs of companies say, “I have dinners with other CEOs because they’re the only ones who understand the pressures that I’m under — and I can’t speak equally to my subordinates because they’re my subordinates, and I decide how much I pay them, and I can hire and fire them.”
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But now that you say it, you kind of see that it’s lonely up top. And to have one person who’s sort of on your wavelength, sees the world in a similar way, who you’ve been actively working together on deals for a decade now — the fact that Xi has a soft spot in his heart for Putin makes some sense.
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Wilder: I want to be clear that I’m not reading intelligence nor do I hold clearances right now — but if I had to bet money, our intelligence is probably coming more from inside Russia than it is from inside China. We seem to have very good intelligence on the Russians and what they’re doing, and I would think that if the Chinese made the decision, we would probably see it reflected first on the Russian side.”
Comment: I highly recommend reading this highly informative and insightful interview in its entirety. I’ve subscribed to China Talk.
2) Beijing assisting Lukashenko?
Belarus to form 100,000-150,000 strong volunteer military force – Reuters [Feb 20th]
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Monday he had ordered the formation of a new volunteer territorial defence so everyone knows how to "handle weapons" and be ready to respond to an act of aggression and keep public order in peacetime.
Comment: This is an enormously expensive undertaking for Belarus, which has a population of about 9.3 million. An additional 150,000-person volunteer force, plus the ~60,000 or so troops Belarus already employs, would be the equivalent of Germany expanding the size of its armed forces by ten times and employing 1.9 million service members.
On February 21, 2023 local time, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, held a meeting with the leaders of the China-Russia strategic security consultation mechanism with Patrushev, secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council, in Moscow.
The two sides discussed the current international strategic situation and expressed their willingness to jointly practice genuine multilateralism, oppose all forms of unilateral bullying, and promote the democratization of international relations and the multipolarization of the world.
The two sides agreed to continue to strengthen cooperation within multilateral frameworks and make more efforts to improve global governance. The two sides believe that peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific should be resolutely maintained, and they oppose the introduction of the Cold War mentality, bloc confrontation and ideological confrontation.
Comment: I obviously don’t know if the two sides decided Lukashenko would visit Belarus at this meeting, but the timing is striking.
Qin Gang said that President Xi Jinping and President Lukashenko jointly announced to upgrade China-Belarus relations to an all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership (全天候全面战略伙伴关系) during the Samarkand Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in September last year, realizing a historic leap in bilateral relations. China is willing to work with Belarus to well implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, maintain high-level exchanges, take head of state diplomacy as a strategic guide, deepen political mutual trust, and promote bilateral cooperation for more fruitful results. China will continue to support Belarus' efforts to maintain national stability and development, and oppose external forces interfering in Belarus' internal affairs and imposing illegal unilateral sanctions on Belarus.
Comment: From the August 21, 2021 China-Russia Report:
“The PRC most frequently and famously uses “all-weather” [全天候]to describe its relationship with Pakistan, but at least 13 other countries had earned this distinction by 2015, including Zimbabwe. Belarus obtained this title by 2016… China has displayed little attachment to particular political leaders in its “all-weather” friendships with Zimbabwe and Pakistan: Beijing may have tacitly backed Mugabe’s defenestration in 2017 and its relationship with Rawalpindi has remained intact despite Pakistan’s tumultuous domestic politics.”
This is a somewhat pedantic note, but China said it would “develop all-weather friendship” (发展全天候友谊) with Belarus in 2016 and, separately, “augment the China-Belarus comprehensive strategic partnership. (充实中白全面战略伙伴关系)” Interestingly, the relevant Belarus link above worked in 2016 but is now broken; it links to the Chinese embassy in Minsk. An alternative source from 2016 is here.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying announces:
At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, President of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko will pay a state visit to China from February 28 to March 2.
Belarus' Lukashenko arrives in China on state visit – TASS [Feb 28th]
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko arrived in China on a state visit on Tuesday. According to the BelTA agency, his plane landed at Beijing airport.
It is expected that the Belarusian leader will hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in private and with other officials taking part. Meetings with top Chinese officials and the leadership of major Chinese corporations are on the agenda. A large package of documents on relations in key areas will be signed.
Comment: Beijing’s economic support for Belarus could implicitly subsidize the war.
China Welcomes Belarusian Leader Amid Concerns About Ukraine – NYT
President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko’s visit comes shortly after the United States accused Beijing of preparing to give arms and ammunition to Russia to help its war on Ukraine.
“Beijing and Minsk agreed to diplomatic ties shortly after Belarus declared independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991. Those ties were upgraded in 2022 to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership,” a label that belies strains in the relationship in recent years over Belarus’s expectations of greater Chinese investment and trade.”
Comment: This is *very* good reporting. In 2016, Beijing characterized the relationship as experiencing “all-weather friendship” and, concurrently, as being defined by a “comprehensive strategic partnership” – but it didn’t upgrade the relationship to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” until 2022. Kudos to David Pierson, Chris Buckley, Marc Santora, and Olivia Wang for carefully parsing Chinese diplomatic language.
Xi Jinping emphasized that the friendship between China and Belarus is unbreakable, and the two sides should continuously enhance political mutual trust and be each other's true friends and good partners unswervingly. China highly appreciates Belarus' firm support for China's legitimate position on issues related to Taiwan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and human rights. The two sides should firmly support the development path chosen by each other, support each other in safeguarding their own core interests, oppose external forces interfering in internal affairs, and safeguard the sovereignty and political security of the two countries. It is necessary to give full play to the role of the intergovernmental cooperation committee between the two countries, expand economic and trade cooperation, build a China-Belarus Industrial Park, and promote the cooperation in interconnection construction such as the China-Europe Railway Express with the joint construction of the "Belt and Road" as the main line. It is necessary to deepen medical and health cooperation, expand local cooperation, and intensify people-to-people and cultural exchanges, so that China-Belarus friendship will be more deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.
Xi Jinping pointed out that the world is facing major changes unseen in a century, and maintaining world peace and development has a long way to go. China and Belarus are joint defenders of international fairness and justice. China appreciates Belarus' support for global development initiatives and global security initiatives, and is willing to strengthen coordination and cooperation with Belarus on multilateral platforms such as the United Nations to jointly address global challenges and build a community with a shared future for mankind.
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After the talks, the two heads of state jointly signed the "Joint Statement between the People's Republic of China and the Republic of Belarus on the Further Development of China-Belarus All-Weather Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in the New Era", and witnessed the signing of agreements in the fields of economy, trade, industry, agriculture, customs, science and technology, health, tourism, sports and a number of bilateral cooperation documents in the fields of local and local governments.
Comment: Worth seeing if these economic agreements actually materialize into something substantive.
3) Chinese state media backs Russia’s Nord Stream narrative
The Russian ambassador to Denmark, Vladimir Barbin, said on the 5th that Denmark has not provided any information on the progress and results of the investigation since it launched the investigation into the "Nord Stream" natural gas pipeline leak, which is suspicious.
Norway was attracted to the United States' sabotage project like a fly to the honeypot, since it stood to gain fabulously in financial terms if it helped the U.S. military to destroy Nord Stream pipelines near Danish waters, and replace Russia as Germany's principal source of piped natural gas, said an article published on the Modern Diplomacy website on Saturday, citing former Indian diplomat and prominent international observer M.K. Bhadrakumar.
Seymour Hersh, an investigative journalist who disclosed in a report earlier this month details of the U.S. sabotage plan, has explained to the German newspaper Berliner Zeitung that Norway was particularly interested in successfully pulling off the plot against the Nord Stream pipelines, according to the article.
How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline Feb 8th – Seymour Hersh’s Substack
Biden’s decision to sabotage the pipelines came after more than nine months of highly secret back and forth debate inside Washington’s national security community about how to best achieve that goal. For much of that time, the issue was not whether to do the mission, but how to get it done with no overt clue as to who was responsible.
Comment: This is the Hersh article that the PD is referencing.
4) Beijing’s informational and diplomatic support for Moscow
Putin Says He’s Waiting for Xi Amid China Peace Push on Ukraine – Bloomberg
Top Chinese diplomat affirms ‘strategic’ ties at Putin meeting
China readies plan to halt war amid skepticism in US, Europe
China says U.S. in no position to lecture on Ukraine crisis – People’s Daily [English-language]
The United States is in no position to tell China what to do on the Ukraine crisis as it is the United States, not China, that has been pouring weapons into the battlefield, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said on Monday.
"We would never stand for finger-pointing, or even coercion and pressurizing from the United States on our relations with Russia," Wang said at a regular news briefing in response to a relevant query.
On the Ukraine issue, China's position boils down to supporting talks for peace. The international community is fully aware who is calling for dialogue and striving for peace, and who is fanning the flames and stoking confrontation, he said.
At the regular press conference that day, a reporter asked: According to reports, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said in the State Duma on the 15th that Russia will conduct a series of high-level political dialogues with China in the near future. The level of mutual trust between Russia and China is unprecedented, and the two sides are working together to strengthen strategic cooperation between the two countries. Russia-China relations have become the cornerstone of a multipolar global order, injecting balance and stability into international affairs. What is China's comment?
"China appreciates Foreign Minister Lavrov's positive comments on China-Russia relations." Wang Wenbin said that under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state, China-Russia relations have maintained healthy and stable development. The political mutual trust between the two countries continues to deepen, strategic coordination is close and effective, and cooperation in various fields is advancing steadily. They are jointly committed to promoting world multi-polarization and democratization of international relations, and promoting the building of a community with a shared future for mankind.
"China is willing to work with Russia to promote the continuous development of the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination between the two countries in the new era." Wang Wenbin said.
Biden makes surprise trip to Kiev amid anti-war rally at home – People’s Daily [English-language]
U.S. President Joe Biden made an unannounced visit here on Monday, one day after demonstrators rallied in Washington to protest against the United States' war-mongering foreign policy and its role in various conflicts across the globe.
Biden held talks with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, about the situation on the frontline in Ukraine and announced an additional 500 U.S. million dollars in military aid for Ukraine on top of the more than 50 billion dollars already promised, a move that is widely believed to further escalate the Ukraine crisis.
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The brief visit also came at a time when more people in the United States and beyond are growing wary of the U.S. role in the year-long conflict.
Hundreds of protesters on Sunday afternoon slammed the United States' role of "war machine" in overseas wars at a rally before the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C.
Organizers said the anti-war rally was planned to protest against massive money being funneled into Ukraine, as well as the United States' role in the Russia-Ukraine military conflict.
"Billions of taxpayers' dollars are being torched at the altar of U.S. hegemony, the military-industrial complex, and a corrupt Congress," a release read.
The protesters then marched to the White House after the rally, chanting slogans like "No NATO, no war."
Public distrust of U.S. authorities has also been fueled by a hazmat train derailment in a Ohio village on Feb. 3 and a deadly Texas train derailment on Feb. 13.
China’s Xi Jinping Plans Russia Visit as Putin Wages War in Ukraine – WSJ
Chinese leader is expected to use Moscow trip to push for multiparty peace talks
How effective is the EU's oil price embargo against Russia? – People’s Daily [Chinese-language]
Analysts believe that Western countries' price limits and embargoes on Russian oil products may undermine the stability of global oil prices and lead to changes in the flow of oil trade. At the same time, although the inflation rate in the European Union has dropped in recent days, it is still at a high level. The backlash of sanctions will make it face the risk of a rebound in inflation.
One year on, Ukraine crisis accentuates calls for peace – People’s Daily [English-language]
* While Russia and Ukraine appear to have reached a deadlock on the battlefield and at the negotiating table, the United States continues to agitate the conflict and profit from it.
* Western countries have imposed sanctions on Russia in hopes of choking its energy export channels and destroying its economy. However, those sanctions have backfired, hurt U.S. allies and triggered a worldwide energy crisis.
The story behind Gaetz citing Chinese propaganda at a hearing - Washington Post
Ultimately, [Gaetz] asked about a far-right military group in Ukraine: “Is the Azov Battalion getting access to U.S. weapons?”
Kahl said he wasn’t aware of such a thing, but he asked whether Gaetz had any information he could address. Gaetz then asked to enter into the record an article from the Global Times and asked if Kahl disagreed with it.
“I’m sorry, this is the Global Times from China?” Kahl asked.
Gaetz initially said no, but then checked and acknowledged, to his apparent surprise, that it was.
“As a general matter, I don’t take Beijing’s propaganda at face value,” Kahl responded.
5) Chinese economic support for Russia
U.S. sees some Chinese companies helping Russia's Ukraine effort –source – Reuters
The United States has determined that some Chinese companies are providing non-lethal assistance to Russia for use in the Ukraine war and officials are noting their concern to the Chinese government, a source familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.
Russia and China Have a Stranglehold on the World’s Food Security – Bloomberg
Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine highlighted the role of fertilizers — and who controls them — as a strategic lever of global influence.
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The [supply constraint] is exacerbated by sanctions on potash giant Belarus alongside the decision by China, a major producer of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, to impose restrictions on exports to protect domestic supply, curbs that analysts don’t see being lifted until the middle of 2023 at the earliest.
Comment: I recommend reading this article in its entirety.
6) China-Russia Energy Ties
“The share of Chinese equipment in Russia’s drilling rig market is likely to grow, steadily increasing from a baseline of around 25–30 percent in 2021, as Western companies leave the country.[13] According to the former deputy director of the Department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia, Sergey Kononenko, Chinese equipment is increasingly entering Russia’s oil service market as a result of Western sanctions. Moreover, China is developing the capacity to produce equipment that Russia cannot make in sufficient quantities, such as equipment for drilling wells with a horizontal ending and for hydraulic fracturing.[14] That said, China is not supplying sophisticated technologies such as gas turbines, electronics, or tankers.
However, China is supplying LNG modules to Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 project. In May 2022, there were reports that Chinese companies would have to stop work on the project due to EU sanctions.[15] In October 2022, observers reported that Chinese manufacturers were trying to deliver modules before their contracts expire.[16]”
China is signaling that it wants to move forward with a Central Asian natural gas pipeline project that’s been discussed for decades. But does Central Asia have gas to fill the pipeline, known as Line D?
The region is facing its own increasingly undeniable gas shortages, as well as competition from Russia and liquefied natural gas (LNG) suppliers. So, the long-planned construction of Line D of the Central Asia-to-China pipeline, while increasingly likely, is not yet clinched.
Comment: It’s worth watching carefully if China will indirectly import more natural gas volumes from Russia via Central Asia. Gazprom could export more volumes to Central Asia, which could then ship supplies further downstream, to China.
v/r,
Joe Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and editor of the China-Russia Report. This article represents his own personal opinion.
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.
Thanks so much for the shoutout!