Will Russia, PRC provide naval targeting data to the IRGC?

U.S. ships to transit Strait tomorrow morning

U.S. naval ships will reportedly begin escorting merchant vessels exiting the Strait of Hormuz tomorrow morning, Middle East time, according to a social media post by President Trump. The move comes as evidence mounts that the blockade tactic was counterproductive. While evidence is limited as of this writing, it seems that one or more U.S. Navy ships may attempt to enter the Strait and “guide” merchant vessels out. Why are U.S. Navy ships and sailors being placed in harm’s way in a very challenging environment, especially since the mission objectives are unclear and Russia and/or the PRC may provide targeting data to Islamic Republic forces?

There are several immediate problems with the “guiding” tactic: first, why would a merchant vessel undertake potentially catastrophic risks from naval mines, drones, or even cruise missiles? Will these vessels need insurance or other guarantees? In addition, even if 50 vessels leave the Strait it only buys a limited amount of time, as typically, about 150 vessels transit the Strait in peacetime every day. So while the administration is – to its credit – finally backing off the blockade tactic, the new approach also doesn’t seem sustainable.

Furthermore, has the Trump administration thought through its response if Moscow and/or Beijing provides military and/or intelligence assistance to IRGC forces that results in the sinking of an American ship and the deaths of dozens or even hundreds of sailors? Russian intelligence has provided Iran with the locations and movements of American troops, ships and aircraft, according to CNN. Russia also traditionally holds the world’s largest arsenal of naval mines. Beijing, meanwhile, has provided shoulder-fired rockets and satellite imagery data to Iranian forces, per the Economist. Has the Trump administration conveyed any warnings to Vladimir Putin and Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping about their forces providing semi-overt or clandestine support to IRGC forces?

At best, the operation will seemingly provide limited energy market relief at substantial risk. Additional transits will be needed on a frequent basis, compounding risks. It is difficult to envision the operation leading to a transformation in the status of the Strait but it is easy to see how this business can get out of control.

If the Trump administration has not yet done so already, they should warn Beijing and Moscow not to assist the targeting of U.S. and coalitional forces in the Strait.

Oil storage and Iran

The below elaborates on some comments I made to the Jerusalem Post article, Iran may run out of oil storage within weeks under US blockade pressure.

“Israeli intelligence remains far too optimistic about the U.S.-Israel-Iran war. Most energy market analysts estimate Iran has 45-80 days of runway from onshore and floating storage before it must shut-in oil production - not 15-60 days. Those estimates also assume no production tapering or blockade leakage, which would stretch out shut-in timelines by perhaps another month or two. Finally, NIOC has had recent experience shutting in production, and will very likely be able to limit long-term damage to Iranian wells. Some sharp market analysts I’ve talked with already see evidence of Iran cutting production, which will extend timelines.

With Israeli intelligence almost certainly underestimating Iran’s ability to withstand a long-duration outage, the current policy of blockading Iran will degrade the Islamic Republic’s capacity, but at high cost and insufficient speed. Kinetically escalating, including by putting boots-on-the-ground, would prove even more disastrous. Instead of doubling down on a failed blockade policy or escalating recklessly, Washington should look at other ways to end the conflict on acceptable terms.”

Joseph Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative; he also edits the independent China-Russia Report. This article reflects his own personal opinion.

The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.