The US already provides targeting data to Ukraine for civilian infrastructure deep inside Russia. I suspect any warning from the US to Russia regarding targeting assistance will be met with the polite equivalent of a middle finger.
The US has already set the precedent. Now that the tables have turned, it does not get to reset the clock.
The U.S.-Israel-Iran war should never have been launched. But it remains dangerous to kill Americans. Neither Moscow nor Beijing should consider undertaking this risky course of action, especially on an issue far removed from their core interests.
When it comes to Western support for Ukraine versus Russian assistance of Iran, the distinctions outweigh the similarities. The Biden administration warned the Russian government of the consequences of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine; President Putin did not issue any comparable public warning ahead of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war. Washington and Brussels have important strategic, normative, and economic interests in Ukraine. Russia, conversely, has limited stakes in Iran and indeed seeks to undermine Tehran in energy markets.
The warnings or lack thereof are irrelevant. The US set the precedent. The precedent has been set. The red line has been moved, and it can not be moved back. That is all that matters
Moving forward.
Putin may have some reservations about exploiting the precedent, but most of Russia’s political class and the people themselves are eager for some payback.
If the US is upset with this, then they can either reflect upon their own folly or, more likely, set another foolish escalatory precedent that Russia will simply follow
In the future.
Too many people are unaware that Russia’s war in Ukraine is justified by two US precedents: 1) the US’s preparations for war against Cuba in response to the Soviet nukes in Cuba, and 2) the NATO 72-day bombing campaign against Serbia in defense of secessionist Kosovo.
Russia is patient. It does not rush to retaliate immediately. But it does remember, it does calculate, and it does return the favour when a good opportunity arises.
The US already provides targeting data to Ukraine for civilian infrastructure deep inside Russia. I suspect any warning from the US to Russia regarding targeting assistance will be met with the polite equivalent of a middle finger.
The US has already set the precedent. Now that the tables have turned, it does not get to reset the clock.
The U.S.-Israel-Iran war should never have been launched. But it remains dangerous to kill Americans. Neither Moscow nor Beijing should consider undertaking this risky course of action, especially on an issue far removed from their core interests.
When it comes to Western support for Ukraine versus Russian assistance of Iran, the distinctions outweigh the similarities. The Biden administration warned the Russian government of the consequences of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine; President Putin did not issue any comparable public warning ahead of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war. Washington and Brussels have important strategic, normative, and economic interests in Ukraine. Russia, conversely, has limited stakes in Iran and indeed seeks to undermine Tehran in energy markets.
The warnings or lack thereof are irrelevant. The US set the precedent. The precedent has been set. The red line has been moved, and it can not be moved back. That is all that matters
Moving forward.
Putin may have some reservations about exploiting the precedent, but most of Russia’s political class and the people themselves are eager for some payback.
If the US is upset with this, then they can either reflect upon their own folly or, more likely, set another foolish escalatory precedent that Russia will simply follow
In the future.
Too many people are unaware that Russia’s war in Ukraine is justified by two US precedents: 1) the US’s preparations for war against Cuba in response to the Soviet nukes in Cuba, and 2) the NATO 72-day bombing campaign against Serbia in defense of secessionist Kosovo.
Russia is patient. It does not rush to retaliate immediately. But it does remember, it does calculate, and it does return the favour when a good opportunity arises.
The US war in Iran is a good opportunity.