Xi continues to hedge and look beyond Putin

Depersonalization, institutionalization, and “行稳致远” continuing apace

Greetings from temporary China-Russia Report headquarters at the charming All Day café in Taipei’s Zhongzheng district. I’m in Taipei through July 3^rd. If you’re around and would like to meet up, give me a shout. I’m increasingly working on Taiwan issues and regard a contingency in 2028 as a major risk. You can watch some initial thoughts here, at a panel on Taiwan’s economic security last week at the Global Taiwan Institute. I brought lots of data & charts; my presentation starts at around 2:49:00 in the video. Much more on Taiwan soon.

Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Beijing adds to the large and growing body of evidence suggesting that Xi Jinping and the CCP are institutionalizing ties with Moscow in anticipation of a power transition. While Beijing does not necessarily anticipate a transition, it continues to de-personalize ties with Putin and broaden the scope of its engagement with Russian society, especially among Russian elites.

In a trenchant analysis for Carnegie, Alexander Gabuev writes that the China-Russia visa regime, while under the radar, is strengthening people-to-people ties, especially among elites:

“During Putin’s last visit to Beijing in September 2025, Xi unexpectedly announced that for one year, Russians would be able to visit China without a visa for up to thirty days. Since Russia adheres to the principle of reciprocity in visa matters, the Kremlin responded in kind. A record two million Russians visited China last year—most of them in the last four months of the year once the visa waiver had been announced—and the visa-free regime is now being extended until the end of 2027.”

While elites in both countries share similar perspectives and dissatisfactions, especially regarding the U.S. and Western-led world order, we shouldn’t overestimate elite convergence between Beijing and Moscow. Authoritarian regimes structurally experience frictions with one another, and the two sides have a complicated history. Moreover, chauvinism and even racism run deep in both capitals. Still, Beijing appears determined to deepen and broaden ties with the Russian elite. It will likely find significant success in this effort, not least because of its large and growing economic and technological role in Russia.

Putin’s visit to Beijing on May 19^th and 20^th followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s summit in Beijing a week earlier, but secured few public deliverables, as Beijing repeatedly emphasized long-term cooperation. Authoritative Chinese statements emphasized “行稳致远,” (roughly, “steady progress carries you the distance,”) while noting educational cooperation between China and Russia. There was much discussion of enhanced energy cooperation, but no concrete announcement regarding the proposed Power of Siberia-2 natural gas pipeline or a capacity expansion of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipelines delivering overland to northern China.

Of course, there may have been some unspoken or implicit understanding regarding Beijing’s indirect or even direct support for the Kremlin’s war effort. The European Union says Russian troops trained in China, beginning in 2025; Reuters reports that the covert sessions focused on drones. While the Xi-Putin meeting featured few public deliverables, it’s possible that the two sides are enhancing defense and security cooperation, especially since the war may be turning in Ukraine’s favor due to Kyiv’s skillful use of long-range drones. I’ve pulled out some authoritative Chinese text below and have highlighted key portions.

Chinese reporting on the Xi-Putin meeting

Global Times Editorial: Ushering in a New Future of Enduring Stability and Longevity for China-Russia Relations – People’s Daily

A New Future of Steady and Sustainable Development

Providing the Most Fundamental and Reliable Guarantee for the Steady and Sustainable Development of Bilateral Relations

The continuously deepening comprehensive strategic cooperation between China and Russia has injected surging momentum into the development of their respective countries, the well-being of their people, and the peace and stability of the world today.

Permanent good-neighborliness and friendship, comprehensive strategic cooperation, and mutually beneficial cooperation—these three essential characteristics act like three pillars, supporting the steady and sustainable development of bilateral relations.

行稳致远的新未来

为两国关系行稳致远提供最根本、最可靠保障

行稳致远

中俄持续深化的全面战略协作，为各自国家的发展、为两国人民的福祉、为当今世界的和平稳定，注入了澎湃动力。

永久睦邻友好、全面战略协作、互利合作共赢，这三大最本质的特征如同三根支柱，撑起两国关系行稳致远的未来。

Comment: Worth noting the continued emphasis on “respective national development,” which implies that the two sides do not share identical interests. You can see this framing of “两国各自和共同利益,” or the “two countries’ respective and common interests” in the lead-up to the Iran war (including in early February 2026). China is the world’s largest energy importer and has faced economic costs from the conflict; Russia is one of the world’s largest energy exporters.

习近平：以更高质量的中俄全面战略协作助力各自国家发展振兴 – People’s Daily

As permanent members of the UN Security Council and major world powers, China and Russia should take a long-term strategic view, promote their respective national development and revitalization through higher-quality comprehensive strategic cooperation, and promote the building of a more just and reasonable global governance system.

作为联合国安理会常任理事国和世界重要大国，中俄两国要着眼战略长远，以更高质量的全面战略协作助力各自国家发展振兴，推动构建更加公正合理的全球治理体系。

Comment: Again, more on “respective national development.”

Commentary: China-Russia all-round partnership injects certainty into an evolving world – People’s Daily [English-language]
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the China-Russia strategic partnership of coordination and the 25th anniversary of the signing of the China-Russia Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation.

These milestones underscore the maturity and resilience of a relationship defined by mutual respect for each other’s core interests and major concerns as well as mutually beneficial cooperation, while both sides pursue development paths suited to their own national conditions.

习近平同俄罗斯总统普京会谈 – Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Firmly promoting the long-term, healthy, stable, and high-quality development of China-Russia relations is a strategic choice made by both sides with a view to the fundamental interests of both countries and the general trend of world development.

坚定不移推动中俄关系长期、健康、稳定、高质量发展，是双方着眼两国根本利益和世界发展大势作出的战略选择。

Photo: PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Photo: PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Comment: This is an admittedly subjective assessment, but Putin looks increasingly aged in these photos.

一见·中俄第十个国家级主题年，为何以“教育”命名 – People’s Daily

中俄关系长远发展作出的战略部署

Comment: The PRC may have emphasized “long-term,” or “长远,” outcomes because there were few tangible deliverables arising from the meeting. On the other hand, this framing is also useful for subtly institutionalizing and depersonalizing the relationship.

Commentary: Xi-Putin meeting charts new strategic course for China-Russia ties – People’s Daily (English-language)

“Their in-depth, friendly and fruitful talks, lasting more than three hours in total, reinforced a shared commitment to advancing the long-term, sound, steady and high-quality development of China-Russia ties, a strategic choice grounded in the fundamental interests of both countries and in line with broader global trends.”

….

China and Russia are also expected to strengthen exchanges and cooperation in education, culture, film, tourism, sports and other fields, and ensure that the everlasting friendship between the two countries takes deeper root in the hearts of the people.

Comment: There were many, many articles on education cooperation.

Joseph Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative; he also edits the independent China-Russia Report. This article reflects his own personal opinion.

The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.