Chinese perspectives on a potential war
Escalation in Ukraine imminent?
There are increasingly ominous signs that Putin will escalate in Ukraine before March, and possibly this week. Washington warned that escalation may be imminent, nearly every embassy is pulling out staff and warning nationals to leave, and I am not aware of any indication from the Russian side suggesting that they seek to de-escalate. China hasn’t yet ordered an evacuation, but it may soon, as the Russian embassy is ordering some diplomats to leave.
The CCP is attempting to walk a tightrope in its crisis diplomacy, transmitting different messages to different groups, exploiting the language barrier, and maintaining strategic silence and ambiguity whenever possible.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs appears to fear that an escalation by Putin could trigger a backlash in Europe and is consequently seeking to disassociate itself and Moscow (at least temporarily and publicly). As I discussed in SupChina on Thursday, the MFA has yet to publish the Sino-Russian joint statement in English, even though it found time to publish English-language joint statements with Pakistan and Papua New Guinea (it also does not appear to have published the French or Spanish translations of the Sino-Russian joint statement). The MFA appears to be leveraging the language barrier to limit Western (particularly European) reporting on the statement, enabling the CCP to separate itself from Putin’s actions to some degree.
There has also been *very* sparse English-language reporting on the crisis. In today’s English-language People’s Daily, men’s curling round robin (session #5, if you’re interested) beat out the crisis in Ukraine, which isn’t mentioned at all on the PD’s front page.
On the other hand, Chinese-language commentary in the People’s Daily has backed Putin more aggressively. Language segmentation may allow Beijing to transmit different messages to different audiences. The CCP may be attempting to offer deniable (and Chinese-language) support for Putin while also limiting damage to its reputation and economic interests in Europe.
Two items to watch in the next few days: Will China order its citizens and diplomats to evacuate Ukraine? There are obvious risks to leaving civilians behind in a war zone, but evacuating them prior to a conflict would undercut any escalation pretext that Putin might offer. If there’s going to be an evacuation it will probably be through WeChat, as that platform is nearly universally used by Chinese but relatively opaque for foreigners. The Chinese embassy in Ukraine has alerted Chinese nationals to “pay close attention” to events but has not yet urged an evacuation.
Will Beijing parrot a pretext from Putin? A conflict in Ukraine could turn out to be incredibly nasty, and Beijing will run severe risks in its relationship with Europe if it appears to side with Putin. Still, Beijing prizes its relationship with the regime in Moscow. Beijing will try to walk a tightrope if Putin does indeed escalate, but balancing its interests will prove difficult.
Table of Contents:
Escalation warnings
Russian MoD claims submarine incident in North Pacific
The CCP’s perspective on the crisis
Bilateral Political Interactions
Economics and Energy
Russia in Asia
Belarus
1) Escalation warnings
There is a “very distinct possibility” that Russia will invade Ukraine in a “reasonably swift time frame,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned Friday, urging all Americans in Ukraine to “leave as soon as possible, and in any event within the next 24 to 48 hours.”
Russian officials won’t attend Munich Security Conference — MFA – TASS
Russian officials for various reasons won’t attend the Munich Security Conference that’s taking place on February 18-20, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a news conference on Wednesday…
Earlier, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russian President Vladimir Putin will not take part in the Munich Security Conference either in person or via video link.
About 35 heads of state and government will take part in the Munich Security Conference, which is scheduled for February 18-20. The US is expected to be represented by Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The German delegation will be led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky also plans to participate.
Comment: An ominous step, especially considering that the Beijing Olympics end on the 20th. Obviously not de-escalatory.
Russia to optimize its diplomatic staff in Ukraine - Foreign Ministry – TASS
Russia has made a decision to optimize the staff of its diplomatic missions in Ukraine amid possible provocations from the Kiev regime or third countries, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a statement released on Saturday.
"In this situation, in the wake of possible provocations by the Kiev regime or third countries, we have, indeed, made a decision on some optimization of the staff of Russian overseas missions in Ukraine. We want to highlight that our embassy and consulates will keep performing their basic functions," the statement says.
"Considering the substantial influence that Washington and London have on Kiev and, generally, their role in governing the processes in Ukraine - let us just mention the efforts of beefing it up with weapons and instructors - we can make a conclusion that our American and British colleagues, apparently, know about some violent acts being prepared in Ukraine that can considerably complicate the security situation," Zakharova stressed.
The diplomatic missions of various countries located in Ukraine have been lately reporting that they are evacuating their staff from that country or are considering this possibility over the escalation of tension there. The Russian embassy in Kiev earlier said that it was considering the temporary departure from Ukraine of its nonessential staff.
Comment: Moscow is withdrawing staff from Kyiv. Obviously not de-escalatory.
Biden’s ideas on security don’t take into account key Russian concerns - Kremlin aide – TASS
US President Joe Biden informed his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin about the ideas on security guarantees but they don’t take into account key Russian concerns, Kremlin Aide Yury Ushakov told reporters.
Reports of explosion in Donetsk not confirmed – TASS
The situation in Donetsk is calm now, and the reports about an explosion that appeared on social networks have not been confirmed, a source in the law enforcement agencies of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) told TASS on Saturday.
Situation in Europe becomes increasingly tense, and Russia not to blame — Shoigu – TASS
The situation on the European continent is becoming increasingly tense, and it is not Russia’s fault, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said during the meeting with his UK counterpart Ben Wallace Friday.
"I am happy to welcome you in Moscow, in the Russian Defense Ministry. The military and political situation in Europe is becoming increasingly tense. And it is not our fault at all. We do not entirely and not always understand the reasons behind the escalation of those tensions. Still, we see that the tensions are growing," Shoigu said.
He expressed his hope that it would be possible to discuss the "pressing issues on reduction of these tensions" during the meeting.
"As well as our proposals for the US and NATO on ensuring the security in Europe, which we sent in December and received responses to in January. All this has been reviewed by now. I believe that our response will follow shortly," Shoigu said.
Comment: Shoigu may have some greater ambitions than the Defense Ministry and is often mentioned as a post-Putin successor. How does he feel about the potential escalation? If it becomes a quagmire or even fails Putin may throw him under the bus.
2) Russian MoD claims submarine incident in North Pacific
US military attache summoned to Russian Defense Ministry over submarine incident – TASS
Russia’s Defense Ministry has summoned a US military attache over the incident with Virginia-class US nuclear-powered submarine detected on Saturday morning near the Pacific Fleet’s drills near Urup Island of the Kuril Chain.
"The attache for defense issues at the US Embassy in Moscow has been summoned to the Russian Defense Ministry in connection with the violation of the Russian state border by the US Navy’s submarine," the ministry said in a statement.
According to the ministry, a Virginia-class submarine belonging to the US Navy was detected on February 12, 2022 at 10.40 (Moscow Time).
Under the guiding documents on protection of the Russian state border in the underwater environment, the crew of the Pacific Fleet’s frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov used appropriate means. The US submarine started a self-propelled simulator to split the target image on radar and acoustic control means into two parts and retreated from Russian territorial waters at a maximum speed, the ministry said.
The Pacific Fleet’s ships continue scheduled drills, including to ensure control in the underwater environment and thwart violations of Russia’s state border.
Comment: According to the MoD, a US submarine 1) conducted surveillance in the Northern Territories/Kurils, a relatively low priority theater, amid elevated tensions with Russia; 2) was caught; and 3) evaded the Russian navy subsequent to detection. Alternatively, the MoD is attempting to divert attention from Ukraine just *days* before a potential escalation, create false equivalency between the US and Russia, and inject uncertainty into the information space. The latter explanation appears much more likely.
3) The CCP’s perspective on the crisis
Recently, the situation in Ukraine has continued to be tense, and the West has continued to exaggerate that Russia has assembled a large number of troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border, intending to "invade" Ukraine. Russia has firmly denied [any invasion plans] and has repeatedly stressed that the deterioration of the situation is because NATO continues to erode Russia's security space. Against this background, Russia and Belarus held large-scale campaign-level joint exercises, demonstrating their determination to jointly counter Western threats.
近来，乌克兰局势持续紧张，西方不断渲染俄罗斯在俄乌边境集结重兵，意图“入侵”乌克兰。俄罗斯坚决否认并多次强调，局势恶化是因为北约不断侵蚀俄罗斯安全空间。在此背景下，俄罗斯与白俄罗斯举行大规模战役级联合演习，表明联手反制西方威胁的决心。
Comment: In addition to the framing of Putin-as-victim, note that the People’s Daily refers to Belarus and Russia as separate entities. The Chinese Foreign Ministry is still including Belarus-related content in the Moscow embassy’s page. Odd
U.S. 'adds fuel to fire' in Ukraine tensions – People’s Daily [Chinese-language]
According to a number of foreign media reports, the United States has recently continued to increase its intervention in the situation in Ukraine, deploying emergency combat forces in the frontiers of Eastern Europe, and exerting pressure on Russia. At the same time, many parties expressed dissatisfaction with the US practice of "hyping up war". Analysts pointed out that the situation in Ukraine may usher in an inflection point under the background that the United States continues to disrupt the situation and the parties continue to play games….
The United States has been making constant moves on the Ukraine issue recently, trying to put pressure on Russia in multiple directions…
One is to increase troops in Europe…. Second, strengthen sanctions…. Third, hype threats.
综合多家外媒报道，美国近期持续加大对乌克兰局势的干预力度，在东欧前沿部署应急作战力量，对俄施压示强意味浓。与此同时，多方对美国“炒作战争”做法表示不满。分析人士指出，在美国不断搅局、各方持续博弈的背景下，乌克兰局势或将迎来拐点。…
结合相关动向，美国近期在乌克兰问题上动作不断，试图多方位对俄施压。…
其一，增兵欧洲。….
其二，强化制裁。….
其三，渲染威胁。….
After full communication with the Ukrainian Ministry of Health, citizens of our country who have completed the registration for the booster vaccination can receive the booster vaccination of Kexing inactivated vaccine (КОРОНОВАК) in the near future according to the principle of informed, voluntary, and self-funded. According to the relevant work arrangements of the Ukrainian side, it will be announced in batches according to the long-term residence that my citizens filled in when registering. This notification arrangement covers Kiev, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernikov, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy, Rivno, Chernovtsi, Ternopol State, Warren State, please relevant personnel to complete the vaccination as soon as possible after the notice is issued. Please wait patiently for follow-up notices for arrangements in other regions. Please wait for the notice issued by the Consulate General in the consulate area of the Consulate General in Odessa.
关于开展科兴灭活疫苗加强针接种的通知（一）
2022-02-12 15:09
经与乌克兰卫生部充分沟通，此前完成加强针接种意愿报名的我旅乌公民可于近期按照知情、自愿、自费原则进行科兴灭活疫苗（КОРОНОВАК）加强针接种。根据乌方相关工作安排，将按照我公民报名时填写的长居地分批公布，请相关人员自行前往接种。本通知安排涉及基辅州、第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克州、切尔尼科夫州、日托米尔州、切尔卡瑟州、罗夫诺州、切尔诺夫策州、捷尔诺波尔州、沃伦州，请相关人员在通知发布后尽快完成接种。其他地区安排请耐心等待后续通知。驻敖德萨总领馆领区请等待总领馆发布通知。
Comment: Will any Chinese nationals fleeing Ukraine be allowed back into China?
2022-02-11 21:12
Recently, the epidemic situation in Ukraine has become increasingly severe, and there have been many cases of my citizens being infected in Ukraine or returning to China for confirmed cases. At the same time, the current tension between Ukraine and Russia has drawn attention from many parties, and various theories have emerged, which are inconsistent with each other.
The Chinese embassy in Ukraine reminds Chinese citizens in Ukraine to adhere to the protection of the epidemic, especially not to relax the protection measures for young children, not to take off masks during the flight, and to pay close attention to the changes in the situation in Ukraine and increase their awareness of prevention. The embassy will always be with you!
关于请旅乌中国公民加强疫情防护和密切关注当地局势的提醒
2022-02-11 21:12
近期，乌克兰疫情日趋严峻，已发生多起我在乌公民感染或回国确诊事件。同时，乌俄当前紧张关系局势引发多方关注，出现了各种说法，相互之间不尽一致。
中国驻乌克兰使馆提醒在乌中国公民坚持做好疫情防护，特别是不能放松对低龄儿童的保护措施，乘机途中务必不摘口罩，同时密切关注乌局势变化，增强防范意识。使馆将永远和大家同在！
Chinese in Ukraine urged to ‘pay close attention’ to situation, but not told to leave – SCMP
WeChat post by Chinese embassy urges citizens to ‘enhance defensive awareness’ of changing situation
U.S. Sees China Watching Ukraine Showdown as a Proxy for Taiwan – Bloomberg
The Biden administration increasingly believes that China is gauging the U.S. response to the Ukraine crisis as a proxy for how America would deal with more aggressive action by Beijing against Taiwan, according to three senior officials.
The Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Implications for the Taiwan Strait – J. Michael Cole for The Sentinel
Q: What are the connections between [the situations in Ukraine and Taiwan]? And what are the differences?
Cole: In terms of global interest, Taiwan also figures more prominently as an essential player in the high tech and semiconductor sector; its “loss” to a Chinese attack would have severe repercussions for the global economy and supply chain. Sanctioning the PRC would also be much more onerous a task that similar action against Russia, due to the fact that China is largely integrated into the global economy, to a much greater extent than Russia. Finally, while Ukraine benefits from the NATO security alliance (despite not being a member), no such alliance exists in East Asia; initiating a concerted response to Chinese aggression against Taiwan would be more difficult than among EU and NATO members, even if there, too, unity is often elusive.
Comment: I’ll have more to say about this in the future.
4) Bilateral Political Interactions
Quad foreign ministers meet amid divergent expectations – People’s Daily
Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times on Wednesday that "emphasizing democracy or ideological elements is just an attempt to justify and beautify the Quad mechanism, to make it look more legitimate. But in fact, the Quad is driven by US strategic demand, which fabricates fears over China and Russia that the US uses to scare its allies. It's never been driven by democracy."
Stressing "democracy" or using the term "authoritarian regimes" to smear China and Russia and other countries is "a very outdated approach," and is just like "finding excuses to legitimize the crusaders' invasions of the Middle East," Li said. The values are just pretexts and tools, the interests and ambition of expansion are the real purposes, he noted….
Chinese analysts said that although the US, Japan, India and Australia can sit together and talk, what they want and what they want to get from each other are very different. This makes it hard for the mechanism to have any influence and presents obstacles for enacting concrete cooperation.
Chen Hong, a professor and director of the Australian Studies Center of East China Normal University, said that Payne's point is nonsense, and making Australia a rival or enemy to China and Russia is extremely unwise.
"China and Russia have never treated Australia as a threat. But Canberra, under the instruction of Washington, is willing to fight harder for the US while ignoring Australia's own interests and security. This is absolutely immature," Chen noted.
Comment: Why are Li/Chen/the PD citing China *and* Russia in the same breath, implicitly linking the two countries? The rest of the CCP apparatus appears to be trying to disassociate the two in the English-language press, at least temporarily and publicly.
On Monday, the Primorsky Regional Court sentenced Viktor Korolyov, the owner of a company that was involved in the introduction of high-tech technologies in China. The businessman was found guilty of treason in the form of espionage (Article 275 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation) and sentenced to 12 years in a strict regime colony. He was also fined 300,000 rubles. and restraint of liberty for a period of one year.
Comment: Notable that Korolyov was sentenced three days after the Xi-Putin meeting. Russian courts are famously non-independent, so the timing of the punishment may have been a signal to Beijing. Although Korolyov was always going to go to prison after getting caught, it’s noteworthy that the Kremlin and the Russian security services didn’t delay the sentencing by a few more weeks. For more on Sino-Russian submarine espionage, check out this summer 2020 edition of The Report.
Also, sidebar for new readers/friendly reminder for old-timers: I don’t speak or read Russian, so I used machine translation for that article.
Russia-China statement can lay foundation for powerful alliance — EU foreign policy chief – TASS
The recent joint statement, adopted by Russia and China, can become a foundation for a powerful alliance between the two countries, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell told reporters in the US on Tuesday.
"A joint statement between China and Russia, which has not been very well perceived [by the West] because everybody was looking to Ukraine, may be the foundation stone of a big alliance of two authoritarian regimes," he said. "This is, for sure, is going to be the big fight of the century, the fight between democracies and authoritarian regimes."
Kremlin disagrees with Borrell’s statement that Russia, China are authoritarian regimes – TASS
Moscow disagrees with the statement made by the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell about the partnership between Russia and China as "an alliance of two authoritarian regimes" standing against democracy, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday.
"We absolutely disagree, first, with the fact that the issue is about authoritarian regimes. We do not think that the EU has the right to provide such assessments of the Russian Federation or the People’s Republic of China. We are large sovereign countries with our political system, with our mechanism of the government. We have respect for mechanism of the government of other states, and we believe that we have the right to expect a similar attitude on us," he noted. "Such a statement (by Borrell - TASS) does not meet this logic," Peskov noted.
5) Economics and Energy
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Russia ready to boost gas supplies to China – TASS Press Review
Russia’s total capacity in terms of gas exports to China - given the already established and planned export routes - can reach nearly 100 bln cubic meters, which will equal half of the country’s annual gas exports to Europe, Rossiyskaya Gazeta notes. [Comment: This would seem to include some additional LNG exports, although the math is a bit fuzzy]
China’s CNPC and Russia’s Gazprom signed a contract on the delivery of 10 bln cubic meters of gas through the Far Eastern route on February 4. The already operational Power of Siberia gas pipeline will reach its planned capacity in 2024. The second one, the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline, received a feasibility study in January 2022….
The question is whether Russia will have enough gas to export to Europe. Suverov explained that the resource base for supplies to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline and the Far Eastern route had nothing to do with gas exports to Europe as these were two separate directions. However, as Russia plans to develop gas fields in the Arctic, which are mostly connected to LNG production projects, all the additional amounts of gas will flow to the east after the Soyuz Vostok pipeline is launched.
Russian gas supplies to Europe won’t grow but may remain at the current level of about 200 bln cubic meters a year. Europe won't be left without Russian gas, but Moscow is more likely to boost eastward exports.
6) Russia in Asia
Diplomat: US fueling Japan’s claims to Russian islands to hinder cooperation with Moscow – TASS
Washington seeks to keep Japan’s unfounded territorial claims against Russia afloat in order to prevent the two countries from full-scale cooperation, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told the Soloviev Live YouTube channel on Tuesday.
When commenting on US Ambassador to Tokyo Rahm Emanuel’s statement that Washington supported Tokyo in the issue of the Northern Territories (which is what the southern Kuril Islands are called in Japan) and recognized Japan’s sovereignty over them, Zakhaova pointed out that "over the past decades, the United States has transformed Japan from an independent state into a dependent one."
US should immediately cancel arms deliveries to Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Ministry says – TASS
The US government should immediately cancel its plans to deliver $100 mln worth of weapons to Taiwan. As Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Zhao Lijian said at a press conference on Tuesday, China will undertake "appropriate measures" to protect its security.
Comment: Note that this is from TASS, the Russian state-run media outlet.
7) Belarus
Failed 2020 coup plotters to set sights on ‘stirring people up’ again, Lukashenko warns – TASS
Those who conspired to stage a coup in Belarus in 2020 will once again seek "to stir people up," the country’s President Alexander Lukashenko said at a meeting of the National Security Council on Tuesday.
"There were plans to stage a color revolution in the heart of Europe but what they got was a failed mutiny. <...> A lot of money had been poured into this failed attempt," Lukashenko said, as cited by the BelTA news agency.
Comment: As discussed in The Report last month, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has begun including Belarus-related content for its embassy in Russia. Coupled with the Kremlin’s consistent hints of absorption and the siting of Russian troops on Belarusian territory, Lukashenko may be worried about what Putin is planning.
v/r,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.