Putin and the PRC move closer amid tensions with US, EU, Quad
The Guilin meeting and its Soviet-era significance
Moscow and Beijing are stepping up cooperation as US-China and US-Russia tensions become increasingly visible. US and PRC diplomats exchanged sharp words in Anchorage last Thursday, while President Biden didn’t object to characterizing Vladimir Putin as a “killer” during an March 17th interview with ABC. On March 23rd, the Chinese and Russian Foreign Ministers met in Guilin, in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, to showcase the “high level of China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination.”
The selection of Guilin (a city with a population of “only” 5 million individuals) is symbolic, of course: it appears that Chinese diplomats choose Guilin due to its significance as a base for Soviet air pilots in WWII. Notably, CCP domestic propaganda emphasized Guilin’s Soviet ties in the run-up to General Secretary Xi’s 2015 attendance at the 70th WWII anniversary commemorations in Moscow. Xi was, importantly, one of the few leaders to attend the commemoration amid Putin’s post-Crimea diplomatic isolation. With the PRC increasingly facing isolated due to its handling of the COVID-19 crisis and its “wolf warrior diplomacy,” Beijing appears to be calling in favors from Moscow. Furthermore, linking the meeting to historical Soviet-CCP mutual military assistance allows both sides to hint at expanded bilateral military cooperation, even an alliance-like arrangement. I’m speculating here, but the two sides could make an announcement around July 16th, the 20th anniversary of the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship.
Putin took an off-camera vaccine shot on Wednesday, according to state media. It’s not clear if he’ll take the second dose on-camera or not. Meanwhile, Russia is doubling and tripling down on hydrocarbon exports despite renewables and EVs’ increasing competitiveness. Green/clean energy is an emerging area of contention between Beijing and Moscow: the Chinese side stressed green cooperation in its readouts of the Foreign Ministerial meetings; TASS and the Russian Foreign Ministry didn’t even mention it.
Putin and (to a lesser degree) the PRC appear to be using anchoring bias (i.e. flashy, fast, first deliveries of vaccines, albeit in very small quantities) to manipulate perceptions of their vaccination campaigns; the Sputnik V vaccination campaign may be too ambitious (unless it isn’t, of course); there may be some moderate Sino-Russian tensions over Central Asia; and RIC (Russia-India-China) dynamics are increasingly complicated amid the Quad’s development. This week’s newsletter is a bit crowded already, however, so I’ll discuss these topics in a future edition.
Tables of Contents:
1) China – Russia Relations: The Chinese Perspective
2) China – Russia Relations: The Russian Perspective
Photo: The Russian Foreign Ministry's press office/TASS
1) China – Russia Relations: The Chinese Perspective
Wang Yi: “To explore new ways to strengthen cooperation in normalized epidemic prevention and control, it is necessary to continue to promote cooperation in traditional priority areas such as trade, investment, energy, aerospace, etc., to firmly stabilize the basic foundation of cooperation, and to use the Year of Science and Technology Innovation as an opportunity to exploit the advantages of cooperation between the two sides in 5G, big data, green economy, the Internet, climate change, environmental protection, health industry, etc., and create more advantages "light assets" [?], and the annual trade volume between the two sides determined by the two heads of state will reach 200 billion US dollars.”
在常态化疫情防控中探索加强合作的新办法，既要继续促进贸易、投资、能源、航空航天等传统优先领域合作，牢牢稳住合作基本盘，更要以科技创新年为契机，深入挖掘双方在5G、大数据、绿色经济、互联网、气候变化、环境保护、健康产业等领域合作优势，打造更多优势“轻资产”，朝着两国元首确定的双方年贸易额达到2000亿美元的目标加快迈进。
Comment: Note Wang’s emphasis on future priorities, which overwhelming favor the Chinese side. The new priorities, especially green energy, could be a sore point in future Sino-Russian relations.
Notably, Russian state outfits (TASS + MID) didn’t mention green energy in their discussions of Lavrov’s visit to Beijing. Lavrov did mention Putin’s unserious “Green Free Trade corridors” proposal once, in passing.
Comment: Why Guilin? Probably because of its connection to historical Soviet-CCP mutual military assistance. See below.
“In September 1939, Babushkin was dispatched by the former Soviet government to Guilin as a military adviser to the Fifth Army of the National Revolutionary Army. The tombstone recorded: "He has done what a disciplined commander should do in this job. He participated in the Battle of Nanjing. In this fight against the Japanese invaders, he showed bravery and a spirit of perseverance." In September 1940, Babushkin died of illness in Guilin at the age of 35.”
“Although less known than the "Flying Tigers", as its U.S. equivalent the American Volunteer Group (AVG) is known, the Soviet air squadron was the first international force to join China's Anti-fascist War…
The Soviet squadron joined the war in China in 1937, years before the AVG participated in its first air battle over China in December 1941. [historical documents] showed more than 2,000 Russian pilots and 1,000 aircraft joined the volunteer force to China, and more than 200 pilots sacrificed their lives.
Wu Xianglie, a TV documentary director from south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, is in Russia shooting a documentary about the squadron. He is cooperating with his Russian counterparts to tell the stories of a pilot and a military counsel who died in Guilin City, where they were fighting Japanese troops. They both share the family name Babushkin. Ivan Mikhailovich Babushkin, the military counsel, died in 1940 and was buried in Guilin.”
Interview: Russia, China set example on how to build relations, says Lavrov – People’s Daily
“"Current Russia-China relations are assessed both by our national leaders and citizens as the best in their entire history. This is a well-deserved and fair assessment," Lavrov told Xinhua and several other media outlets in an online interview ahead of his visit to China on Monday and Tuesday.
"Russia-China relations are marked by comprehensive partnership and strategic coordination, which have entered a new era," the top Russian diplomat said….
"The model of interaction between Russia and China is absolutely free from any ideological constraints. It is of an intrinsic nature, not subject to any opportunistic factors nor against any third country," he stressed. Lavrov noted that the international situation is undergoing profound changes, with new centers of economic, financial and political influence growing stronger. "However, these objective developments, which are leading to the formation of a truly multipolar and democratic world, are unfortunately being hindered by Western countries, particularly the United States," he said, adding that they seek to continue to dominate at any cost on global economy and politics and impose their will and requirements on others.””
US will get 'strategic overdraft' to confront China, Russia at the same time – Global Times
“Chinese experts said inviting Russia to visit China just after the Alaska meeting shows that strategic mutual trust between Beijing and Moscow is very high. As Russia-US ties are becoming tense after Russia recently recalled its ambassador to the US, Russia needs to coordinate with China on how to deal with the US as well as regional hot spot issues like the Iran nuclear deal, the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, the Afghanistan peace process and Syria…
Some observers are concerned that this could increase the danger of a new Cold War while the US teams up with the EU and China stands with Russia, but Chinese analysts said that globalization makes a new Cold War very unlikely, but great power competition is unavoidable. The US will make a serious mistake if it chooses to confront China and Russia at the same time.
Li Haidong, a professor at the Institute of International Relations at China Foreign Affairs University, said it is too early to say a new Cold War has arrived. However, it cannot be ruled out and the possibility is increasing due to the wrong and dangerous foreign policy of the US.”
China, Russia to break US hold on 'world order' – Global Times
“When the US vowed to return to multilateralism and try to fix its alliance by stressing values of "democracy and human rights" and forming cliques to confront other countries that reject US hegemony, China and Russia have stood up to break the silence and provide their definition of multilateralism and the values that the world should uphold.
At the 51st meeting between Wang and Lavrov in Guilin, South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, they released a joint statement on global governance after the talks, following the Alaska dialogue in which Chinese and US chief diplomats made no joint statement.”
Russia’s capabilities to offset Quad influence should not be underestimated – Global Times
“China and Russia have agreed to renew the treaty and make it more relevant to the new era. The breadth and depth of the two countries' pragmatic cooperation will be increased, with their political mutual trust enhanced and mutual support strengthened. The two countries will also improve cooperation on global governance and strategic coordination on the international stage. As Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, "This is a milestone in China-Russia relations and, more importantly, a new starting point."
Russia is an influential major power [bolded by The Report] in the region. When the US put forward its Indo-Pacific Strategy, Washington targeted not only Beijing, but also Moscow. As early as December 1998, then Russian prime minister Yevgeny Primakov expressed hope that Russia, China and India could establish a "strategic triangle" that would be in the interests of peace and security…
The Quad is not as solid as iron, with the respective calculations of the four countries that are loosely knit. In addition to Russia-India ties, Russia-Japan relations will to some extent become a destabilizing factor for Quad.”
Putin vaccinated against COVID-19 – People’s Daily [Chinese-language]
“According to reports, Putin said on the 22nd that vaccination of the new COVID-19 vaccine should follow the principle of voluntariness, and that he himself is willing to receive the new COVID-19 vaccine.
According to news released by the Russian Epidemic Prevention Command on the 23rd, the country has newly confirmed 8,457 new COVID-19 cases in the past 24 hours, and a total of 4,474,610 confirmed cases.”
Comment: Only mentions cases, not deaths.
“According to a report by RIA Novosti on the 12th, the results of preliminary analysis of relevant data show that in the context of the raging new crown epidemic, the average life expectancy of Russians has dropped from 73.3 years in 2019 to 71.1 years, which is the first decline since 2003.
In addition, according to data released by the Russian New Crown Epidemic Prevention and Control Headquarters on the 12th, in the past 24 hours, Russia has newly confirmed 9794 new coronavirus infections. The number of new confirmed cases in Russia in a single day has been less than 10,000 for 4 consecutive days, with a total of 4,370,617 infections. There were 91220 deaths.”
Comment: Unclear why/when the PD mentions Russia’s (dramatically undercounted) total COVID-19 cases and deaths. On the other hand, the PD has consistently mentioned the total number of US deaths and noted when the US surpassed 500,000 COVID deaths.
FM Wang Yi speaks on China's foreign policy and external relations – People’s Daily
“On China-Russia relations: In the face of the once-in-a-century pandemic, China and Russia have stood shoulder to shoulder and worked closely to combat "both the coronavirus and the political virus," Wang said. China and Russia should be each other's strategic support, development opportunity, and global partner. This is both an experience gained from history and an imperative under the current circumstances, Wang said.”
Comment: China-Russia relations were listed third in the article, behind head-of-state diplomacy and the COVID-19 pandemic
Wang Yi collects exchanges with Eurasian envoys – People’s Daily [Chinese-language]
[Chinese Foreign Minister] Wang Yi said that at present, the changes in a century and the epidemic of the century are superimposed on resonance. We must firmly support each other and insist on win-win cooperation.
China is willing to share the opportunities in the Chinese market with other countries to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. It is necessary to jointly build the “Belt and Road” with high quality, commit to building a healthy Silk Road, a Digital Silk Road, and a Green Silk Road, and achieve common prosperity through consultation, joint construction and sharing.
The Russian Ambassador to China Denisov, on behalf of the envoys of Eurasian countries to China [“代表欧亚地区国家驻华使节表示”, bolded by The Report], said that Eurasian countries are willing to work with China to promote cooperation and development to a new level.
Russia energetically responds to the problem of labor shortage – People’s Daily [Chinese language]
“Russian media recently reported that since the outbreak of COVID-19, the problem of labor shortage in many industries in Russia has been highlighted, and the shortage of low-skilled jobs is particularly serious. The president of the Russian Federation of Immigration said that the gap in the Russian labor market is usually filled by foreign workers. In recent years, an average of 8-10 million foreigners have worked in Russia each year. After the outbreak, Russia took measures such as closing the border and other epidemic prevention measures, and the problem of insufficient foreign migrant workers began to appear. The evacuation of overseas Chinese in some countries has further reduced the number of foreign workers in Russia.”
Comment: Interesting, coming from the PD.
China – A Look Ahead to 2021 and Beyond – Charles Parton for Sinocism
“It might flatter Russian pretensions to award Sino-Russian relations a mention. For all that Xi and Putin affirmed their vows on 28 December, it remains a marriage of convenience, with both partners bound by a distaste for the US. That, energy, the benefits of a long border without tension, Russia’s military technology sales (for a few years yet), China’s learning from Russian experience in how to conduct joint military operations are sufficient to keep them together. But it is hardly the love match propaganda portrays. Russia has to deal with an increasingly mutinous Russian Far East, unhappy at China’s exploit of local timber and other resources; its dependency on China is humiliating, particularly given age-old racism; and the Arctic leg of the BRI may be concerning. China meanwhile wants to preserve (with changes) a world order which has served it well and must worry about Putin upsetting that. 2021 will not see a divorce, but the lop-sided nature of the Sino-Russian relationship may be rendering it less stable than it looks.”
Comment: Parton’s article is outstanding. I learned a lot and I recommend reading it in its entirety.
“Wuhan's Huanan seafood market may have made it possible for the novel coronavirus to spread, but it does not mean the virus originated there, a Russian expert has said. "There is no evidence that the virus originated there" but "hypothetically, there are all conditions for the spread of the virus there," Vladimir Dedkov, a member of the World Health Organization's (WHO) expert team, was quoted as saying by Sputnik on Thursday.”
2) China – Russia Relations: The Russian Perspective
“[Lavrov]: We discussed our positions on the main international topics and found them similar. Moscow and Beijing stand for developing interstate relations on the principles of mutual respect and a balance of each other’s interests, justice and non-interference in others’ internal affairs. We reject zero sum political games and the illegal unilateral sanctions, which our Western colleagues have been using increasingly more often….
Russia and China do not ally against anyone. Geographically, our country is located on the vast Eurasian continent. China is our good neighbour, as is the EU. We have always been interested in promoting our relations across all areas. Europe has severed these relations and destroyed the mechanisms that have been created over many years. There are only a few European partner countries that have a desire to act based on their national interests.
Objectively, this led to cooperation between Russia and China developing faster than what is left of relations with the European countries. Importantly, there are no relations with the EU as an organisation. The infrastructure was destroyed by unilateral decisions made by Brussels. If and when the Europeans decide to eliminate this anomaly in contacts with their largest neighbour, we will be ready to build up relations between us on the basis of equality and a search for a balance of interests. But so far, all has been quiet on the Western front, whereas the East offers a very intense agenda, which is getting more varied every single year.”
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview with Chinese media – Russian Foreign Ministry
Reporter: Only just recently, we heard disrespectful lexical constructs [?] coming from President Biden. Given the circumstances, how can modern diplomacy respond to these steps coming from the West?
Sergey Lavrov: This is an important matter. I consider sanctions to be the main tool used in the international arena not just by the United States, but the entire West. [bolded by The Report] As a matter of fact, they have largely lost the skill of classical diplomacy.
…
Reporter: Cultural and educational exchanges between China and Russia have been seriously damaged by the pandemic. Many Chinese students are unable to return to Russia. What practical measures should be taken to revitalise humanitarian exchanges?
Lavrov: [decisions] on lifting lockdown restrictions are needed to resume tourist exchanges. As long as they remain in place, Russian citizens cannot travel to China either. Our foreign ministries are not playing the key role in this sphere, where the first fiddle is played by our countries’ healthcare authorities and governments, the first deputy prime ministers in charge of sanitary matters.
Comment: Sino-Russian tourist flows will be very interesting going forward, particularly around Lake Baikal.
Artyom Lukin @ArtyomLukin – Twitter
“Russia and China have been strengthening their strategic ties, forging a de facto alliance against the US. But the Russia-China border remains virtually closed to human travel since Jan. 2020. It's now easier for Russians to travel to the US and UK than China.
Given their friendship, why can't Russia and China mutually recognize their respective vaccination certificates to make bilateral travel easier? The answer is, it's not a priority. The RU-CN relationship isn't about human links. It's about strategic state-to-state ties.”
“While some observers warn about the potential risk that Russia may grow too dependent on Beijing, a joint Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Levada Analytical Center survey finds that the Russian public sees little downside to the growing bilateral relationship.
Key Findings:
Three out of four Russians express a favorable view of China (74%). Nearly six in ten Russians (57%) believe that in 10 years, Russia and China will grow closer.
A majority say respect for China has grown compared to 10 years ago (56%), while fewer say respect for Russia (42%) and the United States (46%) has grown. More than half say Russia’s ties to China strengthen Russia’s position in the world (55%). A slight plurality believes Russia’s relationship with China weakens Moscow’s ability to improve relations with the United States (34%).”
Comment: While there are always troubles measuring public opinion in authoritarian countries (and even the US polling industry is under pressure due to non-response bias), the independent Levada Center is generally considered the gold standard in Russian polling. China’s image in Russia is on the rise.
On the other hand, much of China’s popular support in Russia may be attributable to the public following cues from elites (i.e. Putin and Lavrov), suggesting that Russian affinity for Beijing may prove fickle. It’s worth noting that many Russian elites, including in its foreign policy community, are uncomfortable with the increasingly tight embrace of Beijing.
European Council approves sanctions against 11 people, including Russians and Chinese – TASS
“Foreign Ministers of the 27 European Union members have approved new sanctions against 11 natural persons, including from Russia and China, who the union believes to be complicit in human rights violations, a source in one of the delegations to the European Council told TASS Monday.”
Moscow slams Dutch media for spreading vaccine rumors to drive wedge between Russia, China – TASS
"Dutch journalists are trying to belittle the importance of Russian assistance to the pandemic-affected countries. If they are to be believed, Moscow has been using the vaccine Sputnik V for self-advertising and for expanding political clout in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East," the Foreign Ministry said. "Also, our country’s efforts are wrongly contrasted to those China undertakes to promote its vaccine CoronaVac to foreign markets. How can this not be called a scheme to drive a wedge between Russia and China?"
“First and foremost, since 2014, there have been changes in the nature and magnitude of Sino-Russian relations that are hard to ignore. These changes are most visible in the economic sphere. The Russian Federal Customs Service reports that China’s share in Russian foreign trade grew from 10.5 percent in 2013 (before the Ukraine crisis and sanctions) to 16.7 percent in 2019 and 18.3 percent in the pandemic-struck 2020. It’s important to note that this near doubling is happening as the EU’s share in Russia’s foreign trade is steadily declining. While business with the EU accounted for 49.4 percent of Russia’s foreign trade in 2013, that figure dropped to 41.6 percent in 2019 and 38.5 percent in 2020.
Russia-EU trade may still be twice as big as Russia-China commerce, but it was a fivefold difference just seven years ago, and many elements suggest that this trend will continue….
In 2021, there might even be a sizeable contingent of Chinese ground troops on European soil for the first time as part of Russia’s Zapad (West) strategic military exercise (Russia has been inviting Chinese military personnel to its strategic exercises since 2018, making no exceptions even during COVID restrictions last year).”
Comment: Gabuev’s note about Zapad is highly credible. He was the first analyst (to my knowledge) to announce China’s participation in the 2018 Vostok (East) exercises in the Russian Far East (i.e. Asiatic Russia).
“A remarkable Russia/China espionage case today. It’s the first time in recent years that @tass_agency quotes a “law enforcement source” to indicate that a Russian citizen from Zabaykalye, a vast region on PRC border, was spying for Beijing…. Vladimir Vasilyev, 52, was arrested in 2019 and sentenced to 8 years in prison. He pleaded guilty. No further details available so far.”
Comment: Why did the FSB publicize this PRC espionage case in late February after sitting on the case since 2019?
Press review: Will China join a military alliance with Russia and oil market awaits OPEC+ - TASS [March 4th, pre-Anchorage and Russian Ambassador recall]
“China is not planning on creating a united front with Russia against NATO, the Chinese Defense Ministry announced. Its spokesperson stressed that military ties between the two powers served as a basis for a strategic partnership. However, the sides are sticking to the principle of non-participation in the alliances and do not want any confrontation. This statement was aimed at calming the foreign media and Chinese experts, who still remember Russian President Vladimir Putin’s remark that a Russian-Chinese alliance was not ruled out. Basically, by rejecting this option, Beijing is sending a hint to Washington that it still hopes to iron out differences with it.”
Biden may need rifts in relations with Russia, China due to problems inside US — analyst – TASS
“"Virtually in no time Biden encountered a number of very serious problems, such as the migration crisis he created with his own hands," Korobkov [a professor at Middle Tennessee State University frequently cited by Russian state media] said. He stressed that the US leader’s political opponents have been asking ever more questions regarding "his health, wish and ability to contact the media and world leaders directly." He recalled that US Vice-President Kamala Harris had assumed the responsibility for contacts with many foreign leaders, while "Biden by all means shirks answering direct questions from the media without preparations."”
Comment: This is a small flavor of the Russian state’s increasingly overt interventions in US domestic politics, as The Report discussed in Jan 2021.
US to build anti-China missile network along first island chain – Nikkei Asia
“A network of missiles countering China in the Indo-Pacific region "would be a plus for Japan," said a senior Japanese government official. This official said Tokyo has not discussed such a move with Washington.”
Russia to retaliate, if US brings intermediate-range missiles to Asia-Pacific — diplomat – TASS
“Russia will react and take measures to maintain its national security, if the United States deploys intermediate and shorter-range missiles to the Asia-Pacific Region, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told a news briefing on Friday following Japanese mass media reports Tokyo and Washington were mulling plans for discussing the outlook for bringing to Japan US ground-based intermediate range missiles, previously banned under the INF treaty.”
Comment: Zakharova’s public comments notwithstanding, parts of the Russia foreign policy community would love to site intermediate and short-range missiles closer to the “Asia-Pacific” region – only to counteract Washington and Tokyo, of course.
“We will also speak about other Asian-Pacific matters. Interesting processes are underway in the region. Attempts are being made to reform it and to introduce the term Indo-Pacific region. We do not fully understand this. These are alarming processes, because an attempt is being made to create something that would be directly opposite to the ASEAN-based organisations such as the East Asia Summit, the ASEAN Regional Forum and the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting, which are unification forums…
The advocates of the Indo-Pacific strategic tilt (they have even changed the terms) say it is the same idea but that it would be developing much more energetically. In point of fact, a closer look at the events held within the framework of the Indo-Pacific strategy will show that they are based on bloc mentality, that is, the establishment of blocs that are not designed to promote a positive process but are spearheaded against certain states. The proclaimed goals include the containment of some states, while other countries are left outside the boundaries of such initiatives. I do not see this as a thing that is positive.”
Recent events accelerate process of creating Russian Foreign Ministry’s TikTok account – TASS
“Russia’s Foreign Ministry has created an account on TikTok social networking service. "We have been planning it for a long time, but the recent weeks’ developments have accelerated the process. It is not homage to fashion, but merely information work," Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters on Saturday.”
AliExpress cuts delivery time in half for goods from China – TASS [February 17th, about one week after Jack Ma’s reappearance playing golf in Hainan]
“The average delivery time for goods from China on AliExpress has decreased two-fold since the end of 2019 to 15 days, whereas from Russia - to 4.5 days, Chief Executive Officer of AliExpress Russia Dmitry Sergeev told TASS…
AliExpress Russia is a joint venture of AlibabaGroup, Mail.ru Group, Megafon and the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) in the field of e-commerce in Russia and CIS states. The company was established on October 9, 2019. The Russian Direct Investment Fund together with Middle Eastern funds purchased 7.85% of shares in AliExpress Russia from Alibaba Group at the end of January, as a result of which the latter’s stake in the joint venture amounted to 47.85%, whereas the share of RDIF increased to around 12.9%. Megafon owns about 24.3% in AliExpress Russia, while Mail.ru Group holds 15%.”
Comment: This article appears designed to remind Beijing about the Putin Collective’s financial interests, even in Chinese companies. As Russian-Chinese bilateral trade and investment expand, expect more complex political economy interactions.
Until next time,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.