Ukraine: Omicron giveth to Putin, and it taketh away
Putin’s (very) near-term constraints
Omicron and warmer winter weather in Europe are complicating a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. New weather projections suggest that most of Europe will see a relatively warm January, limiting natural gas heating needs and constraining (but hardly removing) Putin’s energy leverage over Europe. Omicron, on the other hand, offers both opportunities and risks for Putin. TASS and Putin claim that the Russian military is 100% fully vaccinated; Ukraine’s military vaccination rate, however, doesn’t appear to be public but only ~33% of Ukrainian residents have received a *single* vaccine dose amid widespread vaccine hesitancy. Russia’s fully vaccinated military will weather the Omicron wave much better than Ukraine’s, potentially giving Putin a key, near-term advantage.
While Omicron dynamics could actually provide near-term advantages for the Russian military in a potential conflict over Ukraine, the variant could damage the Russian economy, sapping elite and popular enthusiasm for additional escalation abroad. Russian health authorities report at least 100 domestic cases of the extremely transmissible Omicron variant, and the number of severe COVID cases will very likely skyrocket over the next several weeks due to limited domestic vaccine uptake, waning Sputnik V vaccine efficacy, and an anemic booster campaign. While Russia will enjoy some level of protection from vaccine coverage and prior infection, there is every reason to suspect that its COVID cases will soon reach record highs, almost certainly followed by record hospitalizations and additional lockdowns. Facing a severe public health and economic crisis from the Omicron variant, Putin will be reluctant to escalate in Ukraine and provoke corresponding Western sanctions - at least in the very near term. On balance, a January conflict over Ukraine appears less probable than it did a few weeks ago.
The next month will prove important. NATO and Russia will hold Jan 12 talks in Brussels over the Ukraine issue, while Putin and Xi are scheduled to meet in early February at the Beijing Olympics. Putin will likely face quiet, non-public pressure from Beijing to delay any escalation until after the Olympics, to cancel his attendance, or, most likely, both. Indeed, Xi and Putin seemed to note this possibility in their virtual phone call last month, as both figures said they “hope” to meet in February.
Finally, as The Report goes to press, there are highly credible reports that protesters have seized government buildings in Kazakhstan’s commercial capital, Almaty. The next edition of The Report will be published later this week and will discuss Central Asia and RIC (Russia-India-China).
If you’re a new subscriber and want to dig deeper into China-Russia relations amid a potential 2nd Ukraine crisis, here are some relevant articles from The Report to get started:
5 Propositions Concerning the Ukraine Crisis (Nov 2021. How the Russian force structures – the Siloviki – may be influencing Putin’s Ukraine decision making)
Sino-Russian energy ties and Mongolia’s “renewables curse” (Jun 2021. Power of Siberia 1 & 2 natural gas pipelines)
China proclaims bilateral “all-weather friendship” (Aug 2021. China trying to find a way to institutionalize/depersonalize Sino-Russian relations)
Table of Contents for the Jan 5th edition:
1) Ukraine: pretexts and storm clouds
2) Xi and Putin: dialogues between “dear friends”
3) China-Russia political ties
4) China-Russia security affairs
5) Putin’s reflections on China and New Year’s greetings to heads of state
6) Power of Siberia 2, Mongolia, and natural gas
1) Ukraine: pretexts and storm clouds
Kiev’s recent military outlays hint at looming use of force in Donbass, cautions diplomat – TASS
The Zelensky administration’s move to pump up the country’s defense budget by 20% could indicate that Kiev is gearing up to use military force to resolve the Donbass conflict, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said at a briefing on Friday.
FSB nabs dozens linked to Ukraine-based neo-Nazi gang in nationwide bust across Russia – TASS
"The Federal Security Service acting jointly with the Interior Ministry and the Investigative Committee of Russia has carried out detective and investigative measures with regard to 106 supporters of the Ukrainian MKU neo-Nazi youth gang uncovered in 37 Russian regions," the FSB press office said. The gang was set up by Ukrainian national Yegor Krasnov born in 2000 who was put on an international wanted list and was acting under the cover of the Ukrainian special services, it said.
Comment: Prosecutorial tasking or informational warfare tasking?
Russia’s nuclear triad: Putin speaks on Army, security guarantees at defense meeting – TASS
The pandemic did not prevent the high level of Russian troop combat training: 100% of the military and 70% of the civilian personnel have been vaccinated and the incidence of the disease in the Army has been more than twice as low and the mortality rate almost 50 times lower compared to the country’s average.
NATO chief likely to convene meeting of NATO-Russia Council on January 12 – TASS
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has decided to convene a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) on January 12, Anadolu Agency stated on Sunday, citing a source in the alliance.
2) Xi and Putin: dialogues between “dear friends”
Xi, Putin hail ‘model’ bilateral ties, vow to uphold intl fairness – PRC State Council
During the meeting, Xi bashed "certain forces in the world" for trying to meddle in the internal affairs of China and Russia under the pretext of "democracy" and "human rights" and grossly trampling on international law and universally recognized norms governing international relations. China and Russia need to launch more joint actions to uphold the security interests of the two sides more effectively. Efforts must be made to firmly reject hegemonic acts and the Cold War mentality under the disguise of "multilateralism" and "rules," Xi said. The Chinese president said the two countries should also strengthen their joint pandemic response, in areas such as COVID-19 testing and vaccine and drug R&D. The two sides need to build on their traditional energy cooperation, pursue more cooperation in new energy, advance the cooperation package in nuclear energy, and explore new cooperation areas such as renewable energy, he said. [Bolded by The Report]
Russia will be the most staunch supporter of the Chinese government's legitimate position on Taiwan-related issues, Putin said, adding that his country will firmly oppose moves by any force to undermine China's interests using Taiwan-related issues, and moves to form any type of "small groups" in the Asia-Pacific region. "No attempt to sow discord between Russia and China will ever succeed," said the Russian president.
Talks with President of China Xi Jinping – The Kremlin
President of Russia Vladimir Putin: President Xi, my dear friend, I am delighted to see you. Greetings…
A new model of cooperation has developed between our countries, a model based, in part, on the principles of non-interference in each other’s affairs and mutual resolve to turn our common border into a belt of eternal peace and good-neighbourliness.
President Xi Jinping, my friend, I do hope [bolded by The Report] that next February, we will finally be able to meet in person in Beijing. As we agreed, you and I will talk, and then we will participate in the Winter Olympics opening ceremony. Thank you for the invitation to attend this important event.
President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping (retranslated): President Putin, my old friend, I am very happy that this is our second videoconference with you this year and our 37th meeting since 2013.
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I hope that you will visit China and will also attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics. I look forward to our “Olympic” meeting. I am ready to move forward together with you and to jointly open a new page in China-Russia relations in the post-pandemic period. [both bolded by The Report]
Putin-Xi virtual summit concludes, running a little over an hour (Dec 15) – TASS
At the beginning of the virtual summit, Putin waved his hand as a welcoming gesture and referred to Xi Jinping as his "dear friend". The Chinese leader responded with the same gesture and a broad smile. Putin noted that current meeting "makes it possible to discuss the development of Russian-Chinese comprehensive strategic partnership."
Xi, Putin hail "model" bilateral ties, vow to uphold int'l fairness – People’s Daily
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a video meeting on Wednesday, as they praised "model" China-Russia relations and pledged to cooperate more on safeguarding the two countries' core interests and upholding international fairness and justice. The two leaders also agreed to have an in-person meeting in February in Beijing. The virtual meeting, the second of its kind in 2021 and the 37th meeting between Xi and Putin since 2013, covered a wide range of topics including democracy, joint pandemic response, bilateral trade, energy cooperation, and the Beijing Winter Olympics.
3) China-Russia political ties
Press review: Putin, Xi to hold video conference call – Kommersant via TASS
"From the previous format of non-binding ‘strategic partnership’ Russia and China, under Western pressure, are moving to a new stage of cooperation - a de facto military alliance which, however, was not executed in the international legal format," [said] Head of the Political and Military Research Center at the Institute for the US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Batyuk.
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Vasily Kashin, who heads the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics: "Meanwhile, Moscow and Beijing constantly suspect the US of efforts at undermining Russian-Chinese relations and strive to inform each other of their dialogue with the Americans. Despite the long journey traveled in bolstering the trust, certain doubts about each other’s positions in the context of a new confrontation of great powers will remain for a long time," the expert explained.
Showdown over Ukraine looms as Russia, NATO unlikely to reach deal – Global Times via People’s Daily
The intense situation around Ukraine between Russia and NATO is unlikely to ease, as it is almost impossible that NATO will accept the security guarantee proposed by Moscow due to entrenched hostility to Russia, Chinese analysts said, adding that the US-led bloc will not give up expansion to the east, and Russia will definitely take action to retaliate. They noted that although China hopes the two sides can resolve the situation peacefully, the two sides are unlikely to reach a new agreement without any friction and conflict, and that if negotiations break down, at least some regional conflicts may break out.
Putin vows response to Western "aggressive" policy – People’s Daily
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that his country will take countermeasures if the West continues its "aggressive" policy, but remains ready for negotiations.
Putin says Russia, China trust each other, contribute to global stability – People’s Daily
Russia and China trust each other and their cooperation is a stabilizing factor in the international arena, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday during his annual press conference.
People’s Daily’s top 10 world news events in 2021 – People’s Daily
This year, Chinese President Xi Jinping had four telephone talks and video meetings with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. On June 28, the two heads of state announced the Extension of China-Russia Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, elevating the Russia-China comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era to a higher level.
Russia, China set to turn joint border into belt of everlasting peace, says Putin – TASS
The relations between Russia and China are characterized by their resolve to turn the joint border into a belt of everlasting peace and good neighborly relations, Russian President Vladimir Putin said while opening talks with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping via a video-conference on Wednesday.
Gryzlov, chairman of the Supreme Committee of United Russia, spoke highly of China’s world-renowned achievements under the leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core.
统俄党最高委员会主席格雷兹洛夫高度评价在以习近平同志为核心的中共中央领导下中国取得的举世瞩目成就，表示俄中两党将坚定支持对方国家走符合本国国情的发展道路，共同反对离间俄中关系的行为，推动建立更加公正合理的多极世界。
Diplomat to West: ‘Don’t underrate resolve by Moscow, Beijing to defend their interests’ – TASS
Western countries should not underestimate the resolve by Russia and China to defend their national interests, even in the security sphere, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said in an interview with the International Affairs journal on Friday.
As Ryabkov emphasized, the issue of how Russia and China will further defend their national interests - interacting with each other, separately or in coordination - "does not concern the Western group." "They tell us: the issue of [eastward] expansion concerns only NATO and those who wish to join it. And we tell NATO members and those who wish to join it: what will develop later between Moscow and Beijing does not concern you [bolded by The Report]," the high-ranking Russian diplomat said.
Russia’s entry to NATO impossible, says top diplomat – TASS
There is no way that Russia joins NATO, since the West does not want to have rivals comparable in influence at the global stage, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the Solovyov Live YouTube channel on Monday. Commenting on the question about the possibility of joining NATO on certain conditions, on an equal footing, the top diplomat noted that he did not assume such opportunity for Russia.
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According to the Russian top diplomat, such attitude of the Western states explains their "hysteria over the rise of China", which accepted the rules of the game introduced in the global economy and "outplayed the West on its own field."
Comment: Russia’s accession to NATO is impossible under Putin or any Putin-like figure, of course, but Russia and NATO could see a very different relationship in a post-Putin future. Beijing regards this possibility as a significant, albeit very distant, risk
Putin, Xi to approve crucial political document in Beijing, Chinese politician says – TASS
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are expected to approve a crucial political document during the Russian leader’s visit to Beijing in February 2022, President of the Chinese side of the China-Russia Friendship Committee for Peace and Development, Vice Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and Director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office Xia Baolong said at the 13th plenary session of the bilateral committee on Tuesday.
Comment: Some agreement on military cooperation? Power of Siberia-2? I doubt either side has finalized the document; a lot will depend on what happens in Ukraine over the next month
Beijing, Moscow can resist pressure from hegemonic powers, says China’s top diplomat – TASS
Both China and Russia are able to ensure global order and withstand pressure from individual countries seeking hegemony and dominance worldwide, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Thursday.
Xi, Putin exchange New Year greetings – People’s Daily
Noting that Putin will visit China and attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics, Xi said he looks forward to keeping close contact with Putin through various means and jointly leading the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era to steady and sustained development. He also called for concerted efforts to upgrade bilateral cooperation in various fields, inject stronger impetus into the two countries' respective development, and make greater contributions to building a new type of international relations and a community with a shared future for mankind.
Xi Jinping held a video meeting with Russian President Putin – People’s Daily [Chinese-language]
Xi Jinping pointed out that under the new situation, both sides should share development opportunities and enlarge the cooperation cake, seize the opportunity of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, and accelerate cooperation in frontier science and technology industries. China-Russia energy cooperation has a solid foundation and many points of convergence. The two sides should consolidate the stock of traditional energy cooperation, supplement the increase in new energy cooperation, promote a package of cooperation in the field of nuclear energy, and explore new cooperation directions such as expanding renewable energy.
习近平指出，新形势下，双方要共享发展机遇，做大合作蛋糕。抓住新一轮科技革命和产业变革机遇，加快前沿科技产业合作。中俄能源合作基础牢固，契合点多，双方要巩固传统能源合作存量，补充新能源合作增量，推进核能领域一揽子合作，探讨拓展可再生能源等新合作方向。
China demands US halt dialogue with Taiwan — Foreign Ministry – TASS
Beijing regards the island [Taiwan] as one of its provinces. This position is supported by most countries, including Russia.
Russia might invade Ukraine. What will China do? - Joe Webster of China-Russia Report for SupChina
China-Russia relations may be at a critical juncture. In recent weeks, a Russian invasion of Ukraine has become an imminent threat: Russian military forces are amassed along the Ukrainian border; Putin and other officials have consistently issued provocative rhetoric for months, perhaps in an attempt to move domestic audiences on to a war footing; and Russian diplomatic efforts appear designed to create pretexts rather than advance negotiations. In 2014, in what may now become known as the first Ukraine crisis, Putin openly annexed Crimea and barely attempted to conceal an invasion of the Donbas. Since then, Kyiv’s improving military capabilities vis-à-vis Moscow and, perhaps more importantly, Moscow’s proxies in the Donbas have alarmed the Russian leadership. What level of support would Beijing offer Putin in a second Ukraine crisis?
4) China-Russia security affairs
Russia successfully fired "Zircon" hypersonic cruise missile – People’s Daily [Chinese-language]
According to Russia Today, "Zircon" is Russia's first sea-based hypersonic cruise missile, which can be launched from frigates, cruisers and submarines, with a maximum range of 1,000 kilometers and a warhead weight of up to 400 kilograms. The missile is expected to be delivered to the Russian Navy in 2022.
Russia expels 2 German diplomats in tit-for-tat move – People’s Daily
The Russian Foreign Ministry on Monday announced the expulsion of two employees at the German Embassy in Russia in a retaliatory move. The ministry summoned German Ambassador to Russia Geza Andreas von Geyr and informed him about the decision to declare two employees working at the embassy "personae non gratae."
Comment: Not clear why the People’s Daily placed this on their front page
First S-550 air defense systems enter service in Russia — source – TASS
The source described the new system as "an absolutely new and unrivalled mobile system of strategic missile defense," capable of "hitting spacecraft, ballistic missile reentry vehicles and hypersonic targets at altitudes of tens of thousands of kilometers."
China to ‘modernize’ its nuclear arsenal: official – Taipei Times via AFP
China yesterday said that it would continue to “modernize” its nuclear arsenal, while calling on the US and Russia to reduce their own stockpiles a day after global powers pledged to prevent such weapons from spreading.
America’s giant war machine threatens global security - People’s Daily
The U.S. Department of Defense recently released its 2021 Global Posture Review (GPR), claiming that the U.S. will enhance military infrastructure in Guam and Australia. The report, which is full of Cold-War mentality, is the embodiment of the country’s age-old hegemonic mindset and the result of its habit of maintaining hegemony with military means.
U.S. military-industrial complex sees war as shortcut to profits - People’s Daily
Over the years, U.S. military expenditure has continuously hit record highs while the country’s fiscal deficit worsened, behind which lies the strong influence of the country’s military-industrial complex. Throughout the U.S. history, its military-industrial complex, a mighty interest group, has repeatedly manipulated the country’s political decision-making and seen wars as a shortcut to profits, prompting the U.S. government to cause one catastrophe after another in the world.
Comment: Unclear what the military-industrial articles seek to accomplish, but it could signal an information campaign to degrade the US response to a potential Ukraine-Russia crisis.
5) Putin’s reflections on China and New Year’s greetings to heads of state
Vladimir Putin’s annual news conference – The Kremlin
Perhaps you noticed that President Xi Jinping and I always address each other as “my friend.” And it is true: we have a very trusting personal relationship that helps our professional relationship as well.
In terms of the economy, first of all, Asia is a rapidly and successfully developing region, and China is the absolute leader of both the global and Asian economy. It is only natural that we are developing our economic relationship with China. Bilateral trade currently exceeds US$100 billion, which is above the pre-pandemic level. China is our biggest trade and economic partner with which we cooperate in many different fields.
In terms of energy, both China and Russia committed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. But before that deadline, we will be supplying all types of energy resources to China. We are willing to continue beyond the deadline because life will not stop in our countries in 2060, and there are many ways to achieve carbon neutrality, even while still using hydrocarbons, provided that they are used appropriately. We continue to cooperate in nuclear energy, high technology and space – in almost every industry, including technology-intensive sectors.
Our people-to-people cooperation includes organising mutual years of youth exchanges, years of science, education, culture and so on. These initiatives, of course, bring people together at the most basic level, in humanitarian sphere.
We cooperate on security. The Chinese army is extensively equipped with the most advanced weapons. We even develop some technologically advanced weapons together. We cooperate in space and aviation, on both airplanes and helicopters. Finally, we promote cooperation between our armed forces through joint military exercise and international military games, joint maritime and air patrols. Ours is an overarching partnership of strategic nature that has no precedents in history, at least not between Russia and China. [Bolded by The Report]
This daily hard work benefits both the Chinese and Russian people. It is, of course, a strong stabilising factor in the international arena.
The United States just keeps making the same mistake [of boycotting Olympics]. Where does this diplomatic and political boycott of China come from? From attempts to contain the development of the People’s Republic of China. There are no other reasons whatsoever.
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There is no way they can contain China’s development. Eventually this will dawn on them. No way they can contain China. Today, China has a bigger economy than the United States in terms of purchasing power parity. As years go by – 2035, then 2050 – China will inevitably emerge as the world’s number one economy in terms of all other indicators as well. We need to understand this. Who knows? Maybe they do understand this, but are still acting this way. But this is a mistake.
New Year 2022 greetings to foreign heads of state and government – The Kremlin
In his message of greetings to President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping on the occasion of the New Year and the upcoming Spring Festival, Vladimir Putin noted that 2021 marked the 20th anniversary of the signing of the Russian-Chinese Treaty on Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation, which is a solid basis underlying bilateral relations. Despite the pandemic-related challenges, Russia and China’s interaction was exceedingly productive. A dynamic political dialogue continued at all levels, trade was up at an all-time high, and cross years of Scientific, Technological and Innovative Cooperation led to good practical results. The effective coordination of efforts in addressing key items on the regional and international agenda was noted in the message and confidence was expressed that the two countries would be able to expand the entire range of bilateral ties, and a new joint project between the two countries – the Year of Cooperation in Physical Fitness and Sports – would be implemented in full. “I have no doubt that our Chinese friends will make sure that the Winter Olympic Games are a success. I look forward to our meeting at the opening ceremony of this sports festival,” the message reads.
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The President of Russia sent New Year greetings to President of Mongolia Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh, emphasising the important fact that even amid the pandemic Russia and Mongolia have been actively promoting cooperation in various spheres: in particular, successful implementation of the Joint Plan of Events to mark the 100th anniversary of Russian-Mongolian diplomatic relations is of great importance. Vladimir Putin also expressed confidence in the continued fruitful joint work on current bilateral and international issues for the benefit of the peoples of Russia and Mongolia and in the interests of stronger peace and security on the continent. He pointed out that President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh’s recent visit to Russia was used to map out new promising areas of bilateral cooperation. [bolded by The Report]
Comment: Probably a reference to Power of Siberia 2, which would likely transit Mongolia
6) Power of Siberia 2, Mongolia, and natural gas
Commenting on the question whether the presidents will talk about gas supplies [bolded by the Report] to China, Peskov noted that "the energy dialogue would definitely be on the agenda."
A series of new achievements have been made in the fields of politics, economy and trade, science and technology, energy and the military…
The China-Russia Year of Scientific and Technological Innovation concluded last month, which saw more than 1,000 events for exchanges on scientific innovation and cooperation. The No. 7 and No. 8 units of the Tianwan nuclear power plant and the No. 3 and No. 4 units of the Xudapu nuclear power plant started construction in May, which are the biggest China-Russia joint project in the field of nuclear energy.
Comment: No discussion of natural gas (aka the Power of Siberia 2) from the People’s Daily in this article
Russia and Mongolia have adopted a declaration that sets clear targets in terms of boosting cooperation between the two countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced following talks with his Mongolian counterpart Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh…
According to Putin, the fact that the Mongolian president chose Russia as the destination for his first foreign visit makes it clear that Mongolia places much importance on promoting good-neighborly ties with Russia.
Putin, Xi Jinping discuss Power of Siberia 2 project, says Kremlin aide – TASS
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping discussed the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project during the talks on Wednesday, Kremlin Aide Yury Ushakov told reporters. "Yes, the issue was mentioned," he said when asked whether the leaders spoke about the prospects of gas supplies via Power of Siberia 2. It was noted that "the leaders had discussed the issue during online contacts this year," Ushakov added.
Gazprom sets new record for gas supplies to China on December 23 – TASS
Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller said earlier that since November, the company’s gas supplies to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline have exceeded daily contractual obligations to Chinese partners by more than one third.
Feasibility study for pipeline to China via Mongolia to be ready in coming weeks — Putin – TASS
"The optimal route, length and other parameters have already been determined. The feasibility study is being prepared. I believe it will be ready in broad terms in weeks to come," Putin noted. The Soyuz-Vostok gas pipeline will pass across the territory of Mongolia and will be the extension of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline. Its export capacity can be more than 1.3 times above the capacity of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. Construction work under the project can start in 2024.
Comment: Construction work could *start* in 2024? That would imply first gas deliveries to China no sooner than 2025, although a start date in 2027-2029 would be more likely. This natural gas megaproject would represent a huge – and very risky – bet against alternative energies (renewables, Green Hydrogen, batteries, fusion energy, etc).
v/r,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.