Xi and Putin’s Rashomon Phone Call
Boosters and Ukraine
Xi and Putin had, a la Rashomon, different perceptions of the same event. In Xi’s interpretation of a bilateral phone call, Putin “unswervingly” supported the PRC’s position on Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and the South China Sea. Putin’s readout of the call didn’t mention any of these topics, however, and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson later clarified Russia’s position on South China Sea disputes.
Putin stated that he is going into quarantine amid several coronavirus infections in his circle. Fewer than 30% of Russians are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as the country struggles with both vaccine production and uptake. Although a very high fraction of the Russian population has acquired immunity the hard way most Russian public health experts are still predicting another tough winter.
There are rumors that the Kremlin (or, more likely, city mayors and regional governors running unpleasant errands for the Kremlin) will implement stricter vaccine requirements after the upcoming Duma Parliamentary electoral event.
Putin might also attempt additional coercive military diplomacy vis-à-vis Ukraine soon - possibly as early as this month. Beijing, Shanghai, and other major Chinese cities are holding civil defense drills on September 18th amid growing tensions in the Washington-Taipei-Beijing triangle and possible pressure on the ROC’s outlying islands.
From March:
“[Rising] tensions over Ukraine may seek to divert attention from a PRC military assault on the ROC’s outlying islands. While Putin and the CCP likely don’t and won’t explicitly coordinate their military activities for a variety of reasons, this possibility can’t be dismissed.
If Western-Russia tensions over Ukraine rise it’s conceivable that the PRC might seek to opportunistically exploit any chaos and attempt to seize outlying islands from the PRC – with or without consulting Putin.”
Table of Contents:
Politics
Security
Afghanistan
RIC
Economics
Central Asia
Ukraine
Russia
Politics
Xi Jinping stressed that only the wearer knows whether the shoes fit or not. It is the people of China and Russia who have the most say about which system works in their own country. As comprehensive strategic partners of coordination for a new era, China and Russia should deepen cooperation against interference and firmly hold their respective national future in their own hands. China firmly supports Russia in pursuing a development path that suits its national conditions, and firmly supports Russia's measures to safeguard its national sovereignty and security.
Putin said, the Russian side is satisfied with the development of Russia-China relations. This year bears special significance for bilateral ties as it marks the 20th anniversary of the signing of the Russia-China Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation. Seventy-six years ago, Russia and China made tremendous national sacrifices for and decisive contributions to the victory of the World Anti-Fascist War. Under the current circumstances, the two sides should intensify strategic coordination, firmly support each other, safeguard the victory of World War II and defend historical truth. Russia firmly adheres to the one-China policy, unswervingly supports China's legitimate positions of safeguarding its core interests on issues related to Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang and the South China Sea, and resolutely opposes any external force interfering in China's internal affairs.[Comment: Not discussed in the Russian readout, see below] Russia is opposed to the politicization of COVID-19 origins tracing, and hopes to work with China to continuously deepen practical cooperation in various fields and strengthen collaboration against the pandemic.
Telephone conversation with President of China Xi Jinping – The Kremlin
In the context of the 20th anniversary of the Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation, the presidents noted with satisfaction that the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership has been developing progressively and dynamically. The main thing is that both sides are interested in further strengthening cooperation on the entire complex of issues on the bilateral and international agenda.
The leaders had an in-depth discussion on the Afghanistan problem. They expressed readiness to step up efforts to counter the threats of terrorism and drug trafficking emanating from Afghanistan and emphasised the importance of achieving peace as soon as possible and preventing the spread of instability to neighbouring regions. It order to do this, the presidents intend to use the potential of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as much as possible, among other things. The two leaders also agreed to step up bilateral contacts and close cooperation, above all between the foreign ministries.
On the occasion of the upcoming 76th anniversary of the end of World War II, the relevance of the work to preserve the truth about the events of that period and prevent attempts to falsify history was noted.
The conversation was held in a traditionally friendly and trust-based atmosphere.
The position of our country on this issue is consistent and unchanged. Russia is not a party to territorial disputes in the South China Sea (SCS) and, in principle, does not take sides. We believe that appropriate consultations and negotiations should be conducted by the directly involved parties in a format determined by them. The main thing is that we consider counterproductive attempts to intervene by extra-regional forces in the settlement of territorial problems in the SCS. This is the essence of what was said on the Russian side during the recent conversation of the heads of state.
Xi-Putin call demonstrates shared will to strengthen ties, address global issues – Xinhua
In Wednesday's conversation, Xi said that since the beginning of this year, China and Russia have taken the celebration of the 20th anniversary of the signing of the China-Russia Treaty of Good-neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation as a new starting point to promote strategic coordination and comprehensive practical cooperation between the two countries. The two countries should explore new ways of cooperation, expand cooperation areas and work to achieve more cooperation results, he told Putin. In the latest development, track-laying work of a cross-river railway bridge linking Tongjiang City in northeast China's Heilongjiang Province with Nizhneleninskoye in Russia was completed last week…
"Russia and China are two powerful global forces that have both contributed to the fight against the coronavirus," Petrovsky said, noting that the two countries have supplied vaccines to developing countries. Some developing countries are in dire need of vaccines, while developed countries have amassed a great amount but moved slowly to help, said Hanat Baisek, president of the Kazakhstan-China Trade Promotion Association. He hailed China and Russia as responsible countries, which have delivered numerous doses to others and boosted the recipient countries' confidence in defeating COVID-19…
Putin noted that Russia and China share similar positions and common interests on the Afghanistan issue, and his country is willing to work with China to push for a smooth transition of the situation in Afghanistan. The in-depth exchange of views between the Chinese and Russian presidents showed that the two countries are working hard to seek to resolve the Afghanistan issue, said Zarko Obradovic, a member of the Serbian parliament and president of the Friendship Group with China.
Comment: Odd mentions of Kazakhstan and Serbia in an article about a bilateral phone call, possibly some flexing by the PRC
Earlier, Tsoy announced that “on the basis of the instructions of the interdepartmental commission for the non-proliferation of coronavirus in Kazakhstan and the Ministry of Healthcare, a local distributor purchased 4 million doses of the Sinopharm vaccine developed by the Beijing Institute of Biological Products,” Tsoy wrote on Facebook.
September 3, 2021 is the 76th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the 76th anniversary of the end of the Second World War in Russia. In the morning of the same day, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui was invited to attend the memorial ceremony for the Soviet soldiers in the Battle of Dongning during the Second World War held by the Russian side at the Novodevichy Cemetery in Moscow.
New US sanctions against Russia over Navalny unfair — Chinese Foreign Ministry – TASS
"The corresponding decision [on sanctions] was made before the real state of affairs has been established, and this is unfair," Wang told a news briefing. He stressed that the Navalny affair was "an exclusively internal issue."
Analysis: Like '64, China enters Japan-Russia row at Tokyo Games – Nikkei Asia
Population outflow from Far East speaks of insufficient measures to support region — Putin – TASS
The ongoing outflow of the population from the Far East suggests that the region has not yet received enough support measures, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting on the socio-economic development of the Far East. The meeting was held on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum.
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, September 2-Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying announced on the 2nd: At the invitation of President Putin of the Russian Federation, President Xi Jinping will attend the opening of the Sixth Plenary Session of Russia's Sixth Oriental Economic Forum in Beijing on September 3 And make a speech.
Xi Jinping calls to fight attempts to politicize subject of vaccines, coronavirus – TASS
China is urging the world to fight attempts to politicize the subject of vaccines and of the origin of coronavirus, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said in a video address to the participants of Friday’s plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF).
Xi attends 6th Eastern Economic Forum opening ceremony – People’s Daily
Chinese President Xi Jinping attended and addressed the opening ceremony of the sixth Eastern Economic Forum on Friday via video link in Beijing.
Xi attends 6th Eastern Economic Forum opening ceremony – People’s Daily [Chinese-language]
“Chinese President Xi Jinping attended and addressed the opening ceremony of the sixth Eastern Economic Forum on Friday via video link in Beijing.”
Comment: Very terse statements in both Chinese and English. PD later issued a more detailed statement (below)
Xi's remarks on boosting Northeast Asian cooperation amid pandemic – People’s Daily
Addressing the opening ceremony of the plenary session of the sixth Eastern Economic Forum on Friday via video link, Xi urged all parties in Northeast Asia to join hands to tide over the difficult time and plan for common development.
-- The China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era boasts strong momentum and broad prospects.
-- We need to redouble our efforts to advance mutually beneficial cooperation. We need to deepen the collaboration between the Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union, support the innovative development of the digital economy, jointly tackle global climate change, and promote social and economic development in the region.
Security
Chinese hackers disguised themselves as Iran to target Israel – MIT Technology Review
But after further examination of the evidence—and information gathered from other cyber-espionage cases across the Middle East—analysts realized it was not an Iranian operation. Instead, it was conducted by Chinese operatives posing as a team of hackers from Tehran.
Comment: Iran and China are partners, putatively. Have Chinese hackers used false-flag intrusions onto Russian systems? Or tried to pin blame on Russia?
We observed Russian-language posts on LiveJournal claim that U.S. Ft. Detrick was the source of the coronavirus and that China was “not the source” of the virus, a long-promoted and extensively reported narrative of this activity set that has also been promoted by Chinese state-run media outlets since early 2020 (Figure 5). Additionally, we have observed Russian-language posts on both LiveJournal and VKontakte by accounts we have tied to the network cite unconfirmed studies to claim COVID-19 may have appeared in the U.S. as early as December 2019.
Notably, some of the Russian and German-language posts we observed contained recurring grammatical errors, a limited indication that they may have been authored by non-native speakers of those languages. For example, we observed Russian-language LiveJournal posts by accounts purportedly operated by female bloggers use a masculine-tense verb for the phrase "Я увидел" (Translation: "I saw"), which should read "увидела" if written by a female Russian speaker (Figure 9).
Driving a wedge between China and Russia won’t work – Sergey Radchenko for War On The Rocks
The two sides no longer have ideological affinities beyond a vague commitment to authoritarianism and a shared vision of a post-American world order. This is a far cry from the quasi-religious disputes of the 1960s. Nor do Putin or General Secretary Xi Jinping see each other as a threat in their domestic power struggles.
Comment: I don’t agree with all of his conclusions, but Radchenko is a very sharp analyst and historian. I’d also go a little farther than he does in the selection above: Putin may see Xi and the CCP as a potential ally in any domestic power struggles, due to the PRC’s economic resources and extensive surveillance capabilities.
A Strategy for Avoiding Two-Front War – A. Wess Mitchell for The National Interest
By comparison, there has been much less discussion of how, if at all, U.S. diplomacy should evolve to avert two-front war and, more broadly, alleviate the pressures of strategic simultaneity. While the Trump administration rightly inaugurated a more confrontational approach toward China, this was not accompanied by a rebalancing of diplomatic priorities and resources in other regions to complement the NDS’ justified focus on the Indo-Pacific. Nor does the Biden administration appear to be contemplating a redistribution of strategic focus and resources among regions. [Comment:What does Mitchell think the withdrawal from Afghanistan was about? Did he support it?] This misalignment in the objects of U.S. military and diplomatic power is neither desirable nor sustainable. America will have to limit the number of active rivalries requiring major U.S. military attention, improve the functionality of its existing alliances for offsetting the pressures of simultaneity, or significantly grow defense budgets—or some combination of the three.
…
The goal of our diplomacy toward Russia—and the crux of our strategy for avoiding a two-front war—should be to sharpen Russia’s dilemma and ensure that, as its fear of China ripens, it has viable options for a foreign policy other than aggression toward the West. Such an approach would not operate on the premise that the United States can court or woo Russia into a conciliatory stance. To the contrary, its premise would be that to the extent that any reduction in tensions with Russia is still possible, it will be because Russia’s leaders decide on the basis of a cold-blooded read of their own interests that détente with the West meets Russia’s security needs better than their present, aggressive policies do.
Rather than asking “at what cost” would we achieve détente with Russia, such an approach would ask “under what conditions” can we imagine Russia choosing that path for itself and focus on defining and setting those conditions. The more Russia sees the path of westward expansion blocked and the more it sees practical alternatives to Chinese dominance in the east, the less it will be at odds with our fundamental interests and the more it will be at odds with China.
Comment: The simultaneity issue is indeed a problem for the Free World. However, this analysis fails to address why Vladimir Putin and much of the Russian elite rejected overtures from every US administration, from Clinton through Trump.
Crucially, Mitchell underplays a (arguably the) key driver of Russian foreign policy: Russian domestic politics and the “Putin interest.” As Bobo Lo wrote, “Russian foreign policy [will] continue to be based on the primacy of the Putin interest and the premise that the perpetuation of the regime is the highest good from which all other objectives flow.”
Press review: China expected to surpass Russia in nukes and Erdogan seeks more S-400s – TASS
Vasily Kashin, a senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for Far Eastern Studies, says that "during this decade, China will lag behind Russia in terms of the number of warheads." "However, in the long run, China certainly has more resources to increase their number. Perhaps, the country will make a breakthrough, taking the number of warheads to several hundred and even a thousand. It’s not the number of warheads that matters but the way they are organized, as well as their variety. For instance, China has some sorts of weapons that Russia lacks, including intermediate-range ballistic missiles," the expert explained.
Russia ready to supply China with new Su-35 fighters if there is interest – TASS
Russia is ready to partner with China in the supply of Sukhoi Su-35 multipurpose combat aircraft, Director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation Dmitry Shugaev told reporters at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF-2021). "To date, no new applications from China for the purchase of additional batches of multirole Su-35 fighters have been received. At the same time, Russia is ready for further cooperation with the Chinese side on this topic upon receiving relevant requests," Shugaev said.
Comment: Russia appears to have last sold Su-35s to China in 2019. Worth noting that The People’s Daily has reported several Russian air crashes this summer.
“We are expecting a response from China on our offer to purchase modern weapons and military equipment manufactured in Russia, including additional batches of Su-35 fighter jets,” the service said on the sidelines of the “Army-2019” forum outside of Moscow. According to Chinese media reports, the PLAAF is considering the acquisition of additional Su-35 fighter aircraft.
The FSVTS confirmed in April that Russia completed the delivery of 24 Su-35s.
Afghanistan
No preconditions for Russian military presence in Afghanistan, says security chief – TASS
Russia has already reinvigorated its contacts with security councils, military and special services of the countries neighboring on Afghanistan, primarily with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, according to Patrushev. "We have reinvigorated contacts at the level of security councils, military and special services with the countries located near Afghanistan, first of all, with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, as well as with China, Iran, India and Pakistan," he said.
Comment: “First of all” with Tajikistan/Uzbekistan, then with China
Neither the United States nor Russia wants to see Afghanistan become a haven for international terrorist groups. For now, Russia is taking a pragmatic approach to the Taliban in that it has a relationship with the group that the United States does not.
RIC
Pandemic reaffirmed Russia-India cooperation reliable — Modi - TASS
"The friendship between India and Russia has stood the test of time. Most recently, it was seen in our robust cooperation during the COVID-19 pandemic, including in the area of vaccines. The pandemic has highlighted the importance of the health and pharma sectors in our bilateral cooperation," [Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi] said.
BRICS countries support use of science-based methods to figure out origins of coronavirus – TASS
"We note that the cooperation on study of origins of the SARS-COV-2 is an important aspect of the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. We support science-based, inclusive of broad expertise, transparent, and timely processes, free from politicization or interference, to strengthen international capabilities to better understand the emergence of novel pathogens and to help prevent future pandemics," the document reads.
Comment: The statement seemingly leaves room for different interpretations by India, China, and maybe Russia.
Economics
China demanded the right to fish for free in Russian seas – Finanz/RBC [Russian language]
China is seeking the right to catch pollock in Russian waters and wants to get a gigantic quota for nothing, RBC reports, citing a source in the fishing industry and a person close to Rosrybolovstvo.
China Approves Renewable Mega-Project for Green Hydrogen – Yahoo Finance
The Chinese region of Inner Mongolia has approved a massive power project that will use solar and wind to produce green hydrogen. Inner Mongolia’s Energy Administration has given the go ahead to a cluster of plants in the cities of Ordos and Baotou that will use 1.85 gigawatts of solar and 370 megawatts of wind to produce 66,900 tons of green hydrogen a year, the Hydrogen Energy Industry Promotion Association said in a report. Development will begin in October and the projects will be operational in mid-2023, the association said, without specifying the cost or the developers.
Comment: In case you missed it, Mongolian energy may become very important for bilateral economic and political ties. Solar and wind energy production in Inner Mongolia could displace Power of Siberia 1/2 gas volumes. Green Hydrogen uses solar/wind energy as an input and can theoretically replace most uses of oil/natural gas. If Green Hydrogen can become economic at scale then Russia hydrocarbon exports to China could become obsolete.
China plans massive clean hydrogen deployment – BNEF – Hydrogen Economist
Large industrial companies in China are planning massive clean hydrogen projects on a scale unheard of anywhere else in the world—and to an extent that surprised the authors of research firm BloombergNEF’s newly released H2 2021 Hydrogen Market Outlook.
“Deployments and plans for deployments in China are going through the roof,” says Martin Tengler, BNEF’s lead hydrogen analyst.
Comment: Chinese (and world) Green Hydrogen uptake is rising rapidly, but from a very low level. Still very early days
Gas supplies to China over Power of Siberia setting absolute record — Gazprom – TASS
"Gas supplies to China over the Power of Siberia continue growing. On August 26, daily supplies for the fourth time over this year updated the absolute record and were more than 5% above daily contract commitments of Gazprom," the company says.
It was reported earlier that gas production of the group would grow by 55 bln cubic meters to more than 510 bln cubic meters. Gas exports to Europe are planned to be 183 bln cubic meters this year.
Comment: Interesting comparison with gas volumes to Europe – European natural gas prices are currently very high
Russia starts to sow seeds of ‘wheat diplomacy’ – FT
China-funded thermal power plant expansion completed in Mongolia – People’s Daily
The completion and commissioning ceremony of the China-funded expansion of a thermal power plant was held Friday in Erdenet, capital of Mongolia's northern province of Orkhon. The project was executed by China's Hunan Industrial Equipment Installation Company, which has previously conducted the expansion of Thermal Power Plant No. 3 in Ulan Bator. "The completion of the project is of great significance to the development of Mongolia's energy sector," Mongolian Energy Minister Nansal Tavinbekh said at the ceremony.
Comment: Coal plant
Central Asia
Russian officials now contend that the threat out of Afghanistan comes from the non-Afghan Islamic extremists in that country, some of whom are citizens of Central Asian countries, who could cross the border into Central Asia and create instability. The Central Asian governments might well agree with that assessment.
But even if that's the case, how much could Russia help them? Unless such groups were foolish enough to try to cross en masse, there is little that Russian firepower could do to help Central Asians. Small groups of extremists or individuals crossing into Central Asia to carry out terrorist attacks are difficult to repel and, in the end, would represent an internal threat to any country in question…
Some think China could send troops to help Central Asia if the region were being destabilized from elements coming out of Afghanistan. This is unlikely to happen. Deploying Chinese forces to prop up a government in a predominantly Muslim country could compound any security problems a Central Asian state might have, potentially making it a magnet for jihadists.
Comment: Interesting that PD is launching its Kazakh service in Cyrillic script – Kazakhstan is shifting to a Latinized alphabet, somewhat to Moscow’s chagrin.
Ukraine
Ukrainian intelligence masterminds subversive attack on Crimean gas pipeline — FSB – TASS
The August 23 subversive attack on a Crimean gas pipeline was masterminded by Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence, Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said in a statement on Tuesday. "In the course of the investigation, it was established that the subversive attack had been organized by the Kherson branch of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's General Intelligence Directorate, the so-called Tavria operations unit, with the support of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, outlawed in Russia," the statement reads.
Comment: Possible provocations by Russian security forces. Ukraine might face substantially more Russian coercion later this year – possibly within the month.
Press review: Kiev using NATO’s playbook against Donbass and Chinese cars conquer Russia – TASS
On Saturday, drones struck fuel storage facilities at an oil depot in Donetsk’s Kirovsky district, destroying some 1,300 tonnes of fuel, and wiping out a month’s worth of supplies for the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and its militia. DPR representative Daniil Bezsonov reported that this was "the third case of this type of terrorist attack" in a week. Experts think that Kiev has started employing hybrid military methods that the US and NATO had used against Yugoslavia in 1999.
Last week, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Alexei Danilov stated that Kiev’s armed forced were ready "to take Donetsk and Lugansk," while Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky acknowledged the possibility of a full-scale war with Russia. The Zelensky administration ramped up its military rhetoric right when Russia and Belarus started joint their Zapad-2021 strategic drills, which Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba deemed to be a threat to Ukraine.
Russia
Myths and misconceptions in the debate on Russia – Chatham House
Comment: Very good read, worth your time – particularly if you don’t have much familiarity with Russia
Russia Is the Canary in the OPEC+ Oil Mine – Julian Lee for Bloomberg
Russia is struggling to boost its oil production, even as its allowance under the latest OPEC+ agreement is rising. At least that’s what the current data show.
Until next time,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.