Xi visits Central Asia, meets Putin
Putin faces several rebuffs in Samarkand
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met bilaterally, trilaterally, and multilaterally at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Some of the key takeaways of the bilateral meeting include: the two figures were relatively cool with one another, perhaps even slightly uncomfortable; Putin hinted at Beijing’s disquiet at the invasion; and no announcement was made regarding the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline.
In perhaps the SCO’s most dramatic and consequential moment, Putin was chastised by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who said “today's era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this." Additionally, the Kyrgyz President arrived late to a bilateral meeting with Putin, potentially signaling a shift in regional power dynamics. On the other hand, it’s possible that Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov was delayed due to developments in the emerging Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border dispute, which has so far claimed at least 81 lives.
At a meeting of SCO defense ministers on August 24th, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said "On our part, we are raising the combat readiness of the Russian military bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and also other forces of response to potential crisis situations." Russia seems to have been caught by surprise by the border tensions, however, as Shoigu’s “potential crisis situations” appeared to reference Afghanistan, not the former Soviet republics. Moreover, with the preponderance of Russian military capacity tied down due to the invasion of Ukraine, it’s unclear how Moscow could generate additional security potential in Central Asia.
If Beijing mediates the border dispute, it could prove to be a pivotal moment in Central Asia’s power transition. Beijing has become increasingly assertive in the region, is eyeing a major expansion of China-to-Europe rail trade that would traverse Central Asia but bypass Russia, and could easily fill a regional power void left by Moscow. Still, the region is of only tertiary importance to Beijing, while Zhongnanhai, recognizing the need to assuage the Kremlin’s anxieties and pretensions, has traditionally been reluctant to flex its muscles in Central Asia.
Table of Contents:
1) Xi’s trip to Central Asia/SCO/Putin
2) China-Russia political ties
3) Taiwan
4) Russian military
5) Russia-India-China
6) Worth Your Time
1) Xi’s trip to Central Asia/SCO/Putin
Xi's upcoming Central Asia trip to bolster SCO cooperation – People’s Daily
Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the 22nd meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the city of Samarkand, and pay state visits to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan from Wednesday to Friday.
Xi's trip is expected to promote the development of the SCO and enhance China-Kazakhstan and China-Uzbekistan relations.
Xi's visit charts new blueprint for all-round China-Uzbekistan cooperation – People’s Daily
Relevant departments of the two governments signed multiple cooperation documents covering agriculture, digital economy, green development, culture, sub-national cooperation and media. Chinese, Kyrgyz and Uzbek officials signed a trilateral memorandum of understanding concerning cooperation on the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway (the section in Kyrgyzstan), which laid a solid foundation for implementing the consensus reached by the two heads of state.
The co-construction of the Belt and Road remains a highlight and an overriding theme of China-Uzbekistan cooperation. The two sides agreed to actively push forward the synergy between the Belt and Road Initiative and the development strategy of "New Uzbekistan" for 2022-2026.
Comment: I’m skeptical that the CKU railway will be operational within the next five years, given China’s domestic financial troubles and the seeming lack of commercial progress (MOUs are just pieces of paper). I’d like to be wrong: the railway would likely provide economic and environmental benefits to the region (including by improving the economics of regional wind turbine construction), and constrain Moscow’s influence in Central Asia.
China, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan sign landmark railroad deal – Eurasianet
The document does not set out a roadmap for construction of the CKU link, which was first mooted a quarter of a century ago but had struggled to get off the ground until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine breathed new impetus into it.
But it does move the project one step closer to reality, by laying out terms for a feasibility study for the Kyrgyz leg, which is the missing link to connect existing railroads in China and Uzbekistan, to be completed by the first half of 2023.
Xi Removes Mask for Putin But Doesn't Mingle Outside China's Covid Cocoon – Bloomberg
China’s leader skips mask when meeting Putin in Central Asia; Xi used stringent precautions for earlier visit to Hong Kong
West sees Xi and Modi critique of Putin as shift in view of Ukraine war – FT
Exchanges with counterparts from China and India mark the most public recognition of Asian disquiet over Ukraine war
President Xi Jinping's SCO Samarkand summit time – People’s Daily [Chinese-language]
Xi Jinping emphasized that at present, the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, and the world is entering a new period of turbulence and change. Human society is standing at a crossroads and facing unprecedented challenges. Under the new situation, the SCO, as an important constructive force in international and regional affairs, must bravely face the changing international situation, firmly grasp the trend of the times, continuously strengthen solidarity and cooperation, and promote the building of a closer SCO community with a shared future.
Comment: PD shows Xi unmasked with Putin, Mongolia’s President, masked in every other picture
The Unbalanced Triangle - Stephen Kotkin’s Review of Bobo Lo’s Axis of Convenience [from 2009]
Lo does not say so explicitly, but in an imagined multipolar world, Russia looks like a Chinese subsidiary. China treats Russia with supreme tact, vehemently denying its own superiority—a studious humility that only helps it maintain the upper hand.
Comment: This has proved to be a very useful model for understanding the PRC’s ambitions and constraints in Central Asia. Still, 13 years later, it’s possible that Beijing believes it has a much freer hand in the region due to a weakened Moscow and, from its perspective, a dramatically more favorable correlation of forces.
2) China-Russia political ties
More and more European residents are taking to the streets to vent out their anger against the soaring energy prices and inflation, a result of European Union's (EU) sanctions imposed on Russia. European officials are wrong-footed to find a solution, by proposing what Chinese experts described as "scratching the surface" solutions such as putting a cap on the revenue of non-gas energy producers and subsidizing household energy bills.
In the face of a once-in-decades energy crisis, European leaders seem to still prioritize politics and ideology over people's lives and the economy by playing tough with Russia, and closely following the US, the upcoming bitter winter will be an ordeal for European leaders' political wisdom, said experts.
Rising populism is another dangerous sign that has emerged coupled with the simmering protests in Europe, said experts, noting the third wave of populism in the continent may risk tearing apart the unity of the EU and gradually cause a bigger recession in Europe.
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Experts warned that as the energy crisis is eating into Europe's economy and people's lives, governments' hands are tied. "Europeans are now muddling through their days, the coming winter will be a crucial challenge for European countries," Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University, told the Global Times.
Lin pointed out that the tit-for-tat conflict between Russia and Europe only has one winner— the US; "as the US eggs on Europe to take aggressive measures against Russia, and suffer from energy shortages as a result, the US is sparing no effort in selling gas and oil to Europe and making a lot of money," said Lin.
Europe will be the underdog during the Russia-Ukraine crisis; yet judging by European leaders' reactions, they are still determined to further decouple from Russia, choosing politics and ideology over people's lives and the economy, said Lin.
He believes the current energy crisis is a big challenge to European politicians' wisdom, and it's time for them to show a degree of autonomy from the US.
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Chinese experts also warned that the current energy crisis is not only wreaking havoc on the continent's economy, it could also breed political consequences, such as rising populism.
A diplomat from a Baltic country predicted Europe may face a fresh populist surge if leaders can't rein in costs, Politico reported last week. "This might be the third wave of populism in recent times," the media cited the diplomat as saying, referring to the financial crisis of 2008 and the migration crisis around 2014 as the two prior waves, and predicting this time could be the worst and have unpredictable consequences.
The rising populism in Europe will further tear apart the unity within the EU, and also disrupt ties between Brussels and Washington, said Wang. He warned that an EU that has suffered from a two-year COVID-19 lockdown, and now the worst energy crisis in decades, may be too fragile to take the blow of rising populism, which will eventually cause a big recession.
Comment: The underlying Politico story (here) does indeed reference the 2014 migration crisis, although I believe most observers would characterize *2015* as the height of the migration crisis. Also, Wang doesn’t appear to be aware that the European Union hasn’t been under a two-year COVID-19 lockdown, unlike the PRC.
Supplying weapons will not bring peace to Ukraine: Chinese envoy – Xinhua
A Chinese envoy warned on Thursday that supplying weapons to Ukraine will not bring peace.
More than six months after the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, fierce fighting is still raging on and more weapons and ammunition are flowing to the battlefield, giving rise to a worrying prospect of a prolonged and expanded conflict, said Geng Shuang, China's deputy permanent representative to the United Nations.
Since the beginning of the crisis, China has consistently emphasized that supplying weapons will not bring peace and that adding fuel to fire will only complicate the problem. The harsh reality and humanitarian consequences of the past six months have fully demonstrated this, he told a UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine.
Equally worrying is the scenario that a large number of weapons and ammunition falling into the wrong hands, causing endless trouble, and creating security risks in Ukraine and in the wider region. Relevant negative impact has already begun to emerge, he said.
China ready to protect common interests with Russia – TASS
China is ready to work together with Russia in order to jointly safeguard common interests, a member of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party, director of the general office of the CCP Central Committee’s Central Foreign Affairs Commission, Yang Jiechi, said at a meeting with Russia’s ambassador to China Andrey Denisov on Monday.
"China is ready to work together with Russia, to continuously implement high-level strategic cooperation, protect the common interests of the two countries, and promote the development of the international order in a more just and reasonable direction," the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s website quotes Yang as saying.
Yang noted that under the guidance of the two countries’ leaders [bolded by The Report] bilateral relations had always moved firmly along the right track. The parties firmly support each other on issues involving the key interests of the two countries, and cooperate closely in international and multilateral mechanisms.
Comment: TASS noting Beijing’s expression of political support for Putin, despite the Kremlin’s military setbacks in Ukraine.
The global food insecurity issue has been consciously fabricated and speculated by the United States to pursue its own hegemonic policies, a retired Turkish admiral told Xinhua in a recent interview.
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Russia and Ukraine, combined, accounted for around 30 percent and 20 percent of global wheat and maize exports, respectively, over the past three years.
"Ukraine has stopped exporting wheat, corn, sunflower oil, and fertilizer. Did Ukraine take this action on its own? No, it did this under the influence of the United States and the West. Naturally, the prices increase," he said.
Comment: The Kremlin invaded Ukraine, mined ports, threatened shipping, and is choking agricultural exports in an attempt to increase world food prices and apply political pressure to the West. What’s noteworthy about this article, however, is that the PD is borrowing from the Kremlin’s playbook and attempting to reach and persuade an audience susceptible to low-information arguments.
Western countries are trying to preserve the old world order despite irreversible transformations happening in the system of international relations, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday during the plenary session of the 7th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF).
"Western countries are trying to maintain yesterday's world order, which is only beneficial to them, to force everyone to live according to the notorious rules which they have invented," Putin said.
The president said that these Western countries also regularly violate or change those rules, at their own convenience, and are currently making short-sighted political and economic decisions.
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The 7th EEF kicked off on Monday and will end on Thursday in Russia's far eastern city of Vladivostok. The main theme of this year's event is "On the Path to a Multipolar World."
Comment: Putin’s rhetoric about a “multipolar world” is not new, but it’s interesting that PRC media organs are joining in the criticism of “Western” countries, as the PD is usually careful to distinguish between the United States and other Western countries.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said at a regular press conference on the 7th that since the earthquake in Luding, Sichuan, Russia and many other countries have expressed condolences to China in various ways and expressed their willingness to provide support and assistance for earthquake relief. Thank you very much for that.
Mao Ning said that the Chinese government is making every effort to carry out the earthquake relief work. All kinds of rescue forces have rushed to the disaster area as soon as possible. They are doing all they can to search and rescue the lost people, treat the injured, properly arrange the affected people, and repair the infrastructure in the disaster area. "We have the confidence to overcome the disaster and rebuild a beautiful home for the people in the disaster area."
Putin appoints veteran diplomat as new Ambassador to China – TASS
Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov as the new Ambassador to China, based on the head of state’s decree, published on the official legal information website.
"[I hereby] appoint Igor Vladimirovich Morgulov as Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the People’s Republic of China," the decree reads.
Another presidential decree relieves Andrey Denisov of this office. Previously, Denisov told TASS that he will soon wrap up his career as the head of the diplomatic mission in China. Denisov served in this office since April 2013.
Morgulov embarked on a diplomatic career with the Foreign Ministry back in 1991. He has occupied various diplomatic offices, both in the Ministry’s central apparatus, and abroad (China, the US, Japan). Between 2006 and 2009, he held the post of minister-counsellor at the Russian Embassy in China. In 2009-2011, he served as the Director of the Foreign Ministry’s First Asia Department. In December 2011, he was appointed Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation.
Putin needs Xi – Joe Webster of Atlantic Council/The China-Russia Report for The China Project
The Xi-Putin meeting was relatively cool. While Xi said he was happy to meet his “old friend” again, neither side appears to have released a joint photo op or a bilateral handshake, at least as of this writing, and Russia’s authoritative state media headlined “SCO as platform for constructive interaction” — not bilateral ties with China.
Comment: Hat tip to Marcin Kaczmarski for noticing the absence of a photo op or handshake.
3) Taiwan
US’s Taiwan security bill spurs debate on level of support for Taipei – FT
Lawmakers say more robust stance needed after Ukraine war but some worry about needlessly provoking China
[E]ven in the best-case scenario, it will take months or years to deliver much-needed arms to Taiwan. Therefore, some in Congress want to pair this substantive support to Taiwan with more immediate symbolic actions. Symbolism can be valuable. It is important to the people of Taiwan. And it can demonstrate a commitment to deterrence if paired with substantive military support.
However, it is risky to make major rhetorical changes before the United States and Taiwan are better prepared for a crisis or conflict. Congressional leaders should therefore rethink several provisions in the Taiwan Policy Act such as branding Taiwan a major non-NATO ally, requiring Senate confirmation of the U.S. representative in Taipei, and providing Taiwan with de facto diplomatic recognition.
US Senate Panel Approves $4.5 Billion Weapons Deal for Taiwan – Bloomberg
Act would give Taipei $4.5 billion for defense over four years; White House worries bill could upend decades of Taiwan policy
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But recognition of the measure’s sensitivity was voiced even by some of those who voted for it. “I’m just very frustrated that we as a committee are going to put a spotlight on this,” Republican Senator Mitt Romney of Utah said of the $4.5 billion in defense funding to Taiwan, arguing that there were other, lower-profile ways to achieve the same ends.
Comment: I agree with Senator Romney’s position
4) Russian military
Biden Warns Putin Against Using Nuclear or Chemical Weapons – Bloomberg
President Joe Biden said Vladimir Putin would face a “consequential” US response if the Russian president used nuclear or chemical weapons in the war in Ukraine.
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Looks Like a ‘Failure,’ C.I.A. Director Says – NYT
Six months into “a very tough slog of a war,” Ukraine has begun to mount a counteroffensive and Russia’s invasion can only be seen as a failure, the director of the C.I.A., William J. Burns, said.
“The rapidity with which the Ukrainian forces have advanced, the retreat of the occupying forces abandoning an imposing amount of equipment, the demoralization of Russian soldiers from poor peripheral regions of Russia are all elements which show that if Ukraine has not yet won the war, Russia is probably losing it.”
5) Russia-India-China
India's Modi assails Putin over Ukraine war – Reuters
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday that now was not the time for war, directly assailing the Kremlin chief in public over the nearly seven-month-long conflict in Ukraine.
India, Japan plan more military drills to boost ties amid ‘unilateral attempts’ – Taipei Times
India and Japan yesterday said that they would deepen defense cooperation, with New Delhi inviting investment by Japanese industries and both countries planning a joint military drill involving their air force fighters.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has confirmed his attendance at the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit which will be held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan from Thursday to Friday, just days after India's decision to walk away from part of the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) last week. Analysts said India is sticking to an independent and autonomous diplomacy and they hope India will be more united with other SCO members including China and Russia, and play a more positive role to promote multipolarization of the world together.
Comment: India is traditionally skeptical of international trade and isn’t part of RCEP.
Russia to do everything to end conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible, Putin assures Modi – TASS
Russia will do everything it can to make the conflict in Ukraine end as soon as possible, but Kiev refuses to negotiate, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during his meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the SCO Summit Friday.
"I know your position on the conflict in Ukraine, you concerns that you express constantly," Putin noted.
"We do everything we can to make it end as soon as possible," he assured. Meanwhile, he expressed his regret, because the "other side, the Ukrainian leadership stated its rejection of negotiations process," "stated that it wants to achieve its goals by force."
Comment: Notable: India (and Kazakhstan) voted in favor of President Zelenskyy’s speech; China abstained.
6) Worth Your Time
Xi Jinping won’t ditch Vladimir Putin, for now – David Rennie for The Economist
China’s goal in Ukraine is Western disunity and failure, more than a Russian triumph
A Chinese Spy Wanted GE’s Secrets, But the US Got China’s Instead – Bloomberg
How the arrest of a burned-out intelligence officer exposed an economic-espionage machine.
US, Taiwan grapple with key differences in debate over deterring China - Roll Call
EU intelligence chief cancels Taiwan trip after Beijing learns his secret plans – Politico EU
Questions are being raised about how a high-level EU official’s travel plan was leaked to China.
Comment: Very depressing thread. Arguably the two greatest developmental disasters in recent history are: 1) Xi’s failure – or unwillingness – to prevent COVID from spreading beyond China’s borders and 2) Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine and blockade its agricultural exports.
v/r,
Joe Webster
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.