China’s Russia Strategy After the Xi–Putin Meeting: Depersonalize, Institutionalize, Insulate
Beijing is reframing the China–Russia relationship around political systems, "traditional friendship" and historical memory. It’s a hedge against a post-war reckoning in Moscow.
Beijing is working to institutionalize ties with Moscow and hedge against potential shifts in Russian domestic politics. During Xi’s visit to Moscow last week, both he and authoritative state media emphasized the two sides’ “traditional friendship” (传统友谊) and - more provocatively - their “fighting friendship” 战斗友谊 in World War 2.
These formulations aren’t new. “Traditional friendship” 传统友谊” has been used in state media and MFA statements since at least the 1950s to describe ties with North Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, and various African states. “战斗友谊” (combat or fighting friendship) has been invoked in reference to countries that fought alongside China or the PLA—particularly the Soviet Union during World War II and North Korea during the Korean War. For instance, Xi mentioned “fighting friendship” during his 2015 Victory Day visit to Moscow.
The novelty lies not in the words themselves, but in their growing prominence and frequency. “Traditional friendship” (传统友谊) is increasingly used more systematically and visibly in high-level diplomacy with Russia, including joint statements, Xi’s signed articles, and People’s Daily editorials. The shifting emphasis reflects Beijing’s broader effort to depersonalize the relationship and reduce reliance on Putin by highlighting societal links.
This new emphasis on institutionalizing ties became more pronounced after the Prigozhin mutiny in June 2023. When Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko visited Beijing the following month, Xi first described Sino-Russian ties as a “strategic choice made by the two countries based on the fundamental interests of their respective countries and peoples.” (发展中俄关系是两国基于各自国家和人民根本利益作出的战略选择). In context, Xi and the CCP were clearly signaling to Russia’s political elite their intent to sustain close ties with Moscow, regardless of who holds power.
Indeed, the PRC likely sees a medium-term leadership transition in Russia as increasingly plausible—though not necessarily likely. Putin’s grip remains firm for now, bolstered by elite and public support for the war and a formidable techno-surveillance apparatus. Still, a post-war reckoning could challenge his rule. With nearly one million casualties and hundreds of billions in lost economic growth, failure to achieve even his minimal objective of demilitarizing Ukraine could seriously erode his legitimacy.
While Putin is a highly skilled domestic political operator and could remain in power for years, Russia’s domestic political post-war outlook is increasingly uncertain. Beijing is institutionalizing ties with Russia’s political system to insulate the bilateral relationship from potential upheaval.
ChatGPT 4o image prompt: Please make a graphic of Xi Jinping and the CCP aiming to institutionalize their relationship with the broad Russian political ecosystem. Include the PRC and Russian flags in the background but make all the Russian figures blank.
Joint Statement
The two sides agreed that the two peoples forged a profound fighting friendship [战斗友谊; bolded by The Report] and mutual assistance in the World Anti-Fascist War, laying a solid foundation for the comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination between China and Russia in the new era. At present, with the joint efforts of both sides, China-Russia relations have reached the highest level in history and continue to develop steadily and in all directions, setting an example for building a new type of international relations and becoming a model for cooperation between the world's major powers and each other's largest neighbors.
Over a long period of time, China and Russia have formed extensive common interests, and the overall development goals of the two countries are mutually consistent, forming a solid foundation for cooperation in various fields between the two sides. China-Russia relations have unique strategic value and strong endogenous driving force. They are not directed against any third party, nor are they subject to any third party. In the face of an international situation full of changes and chaos, the two sides will maintain strategic determination, always regard each other as priority partners, and jointly resist any attempt to interfere with and undermine the traditional friendship and deep mutual trust between China and Russia [bolded by The Report], help each other's development and revitalization, and inject stability and positive energy into the world.
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The Russian side reiterated its commitment to the one-China principle, recognizing that there is only one China in the world, that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the People's Republic of China, and that the government of the People's Republic of China is the only legitimate government representing all of China. The Russian side opposes any form of "Taiwan independence" and firmly supports the measures taken by the Chinese government to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity and achieve national reunification.
China supports Russia in safeguarding its national security, stability, development and prosperity, sovereignty and territorial integrity, and opposes external interference in Russia's internal affairs.
The two sides will be guided by the diplomacy of heads of state, fully implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, continue to maintain close high-level exchanges, and ensure the high-level operation of the government, legislature and inter-party exchange mechanisms.
The two sides reiterated that the close relationship between the Chinese and Russian militaries is of special significance, which will help the two countries to more effectively defend their sovereignty and national interests and effectively respond to traditional and non-traditional threats and challenges. The two sides will continue to strengthen military and military technical cooperation to benefit the people of China and Russia and safeguard global and regional security. The two sides will further deepen military mutual trust and cooperation, expand the scale and scope of joint military exercises, regularly organize joint maritime and air patrols, strengthen exchanges and cooperation under bilateral and multilateral frameworks, and promote China-Russia military cooperation to a higher level. [bolded by The Report]
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[The two sides will] continue to consolidate the comprehensive energy cooperation partnership, support business entities in implementing cooperation projects in the fields of oil, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, civil nuclear energy, coal, electricity, renewable energy [bolded by The Report], etc., maintain the stable operation of relevant cross-border infrastructure, and promote smooth energy transportation.
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In order to prevent the two peoples' contributions in fighting against Japanese militarism and Nazi Germany from being forgotten, China and Russia will continue to resist any attempt to mislead young people. In order to protect traditional moral values, correct historical perspectives and cultural identity, continue to pass on moral norms, continue the friendly traditions of the two peoples [bolded by The Report], and enhance mutual understanding, the two sides agreed to:
Strengthen educational cooperation, improve the legal basis for cooperation, further expand cooperation in the fields of general vocational education, secondary vocational education, vocational education and training, and between the two countries' universities, strengthen relevant cooperation within the framework of multilateral platforms such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, expand the scale of mutual exchange of students, and promote Chinese teaching in Russia and Russian teaching in China. Continue to support the two countries' first-class universities in formulating and implementing joint teaching plans and scientific research. Support the development of alliances of similar universities in China and Russia, jointly carry out academic exchanges, and hold scientific research conferences and other scientific and educational activities.
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The two sides pointed out that one of the strategic risks that urgently needs to be eliminated is that some nuclear-weapon states are expanding their military alliances in sensitive areas around other nuclear-weapon states, exerting pressure by force or carrying out hostile acts that threaten the fundamental security interests of other countries. The two sides condemned some nuclear-weapon states for developing an unrestricted global multi-layered anti-missile system, deploying land-based medium- and short-range missiles targeting other nuclear-weapon states abroad, and promoting the so-called "extended deterrence" and "nuclear sharing" arrangements that are extremely destructive, undermining regional stability and global security. The two sides oppose all kinds of provocative actions that raise tensions and strategic risks against nuclear-weapon states.
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The two sides highly appreciated the prospect of further strengthening the comprehensive cooperation among China, Russia and Mongolia and building the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor, and will actively promote the implementation of key cooperation projects and matters under the corridor.
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Both sides advocate maintaining peace and stability in the Arctic region and preventing military and political tensions in the region.
Comments: There are eight mentions of “tradition” (传统) and two mentions of friendship (友谊),up from 5 and 0, respectively, in the two sides’ 2022 joint statement.
Other takeaways: there was no explicit mention of Ukraine in the section discussing each country’s “core interests,” although Beijing is of course supporting the Kremlin’s invasion in many ways. There was no explicit mention of Power of Siberia-2, even in the Mongolia section. The Arctic’s inclusion in the readout is noteworthy given that the subject is something of a sore point.
Traditional friendship [传统友好]
They expect that under the strategic guidance of the heads of state of Russia and China, Russia and China will deepen their traditional friendship, firmly defend the results of the victory of the Second World War, and jointly maintain global strategic stability and international fairness and justice.
俄罗斯各界人士热切期待习近平主席对俄罗斯进行国事访问并出席在莫斯科举行的纪念苏联伟大卫国战争胜利80周年庆典。他们期待在俄中两国元首的战略引领下,俄中深化传统友好,并坚定捍卫二战胜利成果,共同维护全球战略稳定和国际公平正义。
Comments: “Traditional friendship” again.
Though the article claims to reflect “all walks of life” in Russia, its core message highlights elite consensus in favor of close China–Russia ties. By interviewing Rusian senior officials and foreign policy figures, Beijing appears intent on deepening and institutionalizing relations beyond Putin. Interviewees included, in this order:
· First Deputy Chairman of the International Affairs Committee,
· the special representative of the Russian president,
· the former deputy secretary-general of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,
· the Russian ambassador to Germany(!),
· the First Deputy Chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Duma,
· a Russian think tank scholar
While the notion of a historically friendly relationship isn’t entirely groundless, the narrative lacks nuance. The Treaty of Nerchinsk, signed in 1689, indeed was the first time the Qing dynasty acknowledged another state as an equal. On the other hand, the Soviet Union and the PRC exchanged blows in 1969 during the Sino-Soviet border conflict.
"China-Russia relations continue to deepen, and the results of bilateral cooperation are benefiting the people of both countries [bolded by The Report]," said Oleg Deripaska, Russian Chairman of the Ecological Council of the China-Russia Committee for Friendship, Peace, and Development [The Report note: Deripaska is also the former CEO of Rusal, is sanctioned by the U.S., and holds significant financial stakes in metals, energy, and infrastructure]
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Deripaska stated that with joint efforts from both sides, the scale of cooperation is continuously expanding, maintaining a positive trend of stable quantity and improving quality. In recent years, China has made remarkable achievements in the field of green development, particularly in solar and wind power, and it possesses abundant renewable energy resources, the world’s largest electric vehicle market, and a complete upstream and downstream industrial chain. As a result, China has become a global leader in energy investment.
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“Russia can learn from China’s experience with supply-side structural reforms to foster a mature green energy market. There is great potential for China-Russia cooperation in the green and low-carbon sector.”
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[Deripaska] noted that simplifying visa procedures and enhancing connectivity between the two countries will facilitate further flourishing of cultural exchanges. “People-to-people exchanges play an increasingly important role in enhancing mutual understanding and consolidating traditional friendship between our two peoples,” he said. [bolded by The Report]
“俄中关系不断巩固,双边合作成果惠及两国民众。” 中俄友好、和平与发展委员会生态理事会俄方主席奥列格·杰里帕斯卡日前在接受本报记者采访时表示.
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杰里帕斯卡表示,在俄中双方共同努力下,两国合作规模不断扩大,保持了量稳质升的良好态势。近年来,中国在绿色发展领域取得显著成就,尤其是在光伏、风电等领域取得了长足发展,拥有丰富的可再生能源和全球最大的电动汽车市场及上下游配套产业链,成为全球能源投资领域的领先者。
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“俄罗斯可以学习中国供给侧结构性改革经验,促进成熟绿色能源市场的形成。俄中绿色低碳领域合作潜力巨大。”
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人文交流对于促进两国人民相互了解、巩固两国传统友谊日益发挥着重要作用”。
Comments: Again, PRC media seeks to underscore broad elite support for bilateral relations between China and Russia. Deripaska’s comments hew so closely to PRC formulations of “interests of both our peoples” and “traditional friendship” that the interview seems staged or at least highly scripted.
Oleg Deripaska is also one of the only “climate-forward” figures in the Russian political elite. As Thane Gustasfon writes in Klimat, “Rusal’s overseas expansion made it a major emitter of greenhouse gases, and an increasingly visible target… as the global campaign against climate change gained momentum…. Inside Russia, Deripaska became an energetic campaigner for a more active policy to control emissions, against the resistance of most of Russian industry.” It’s worth noting that Rusal’s aluminum production is co-located with renewable hydropower, reducing its overall emissions and increasing its competitiveness ahead of potential global carbon tariffs. The energy transition may also shift Russia’s domestic political economy in ways that benefit Deripaska.
The article is also notable due to Deripaska’s stake in Norilsk Nickel, which produces 99% of Russia’s nickel and 17% of the global Class 1 nickel vital for Chinese EVs, battery storage, and dual-use military systems. Norilsk is also relocating a copper smelter to China amid sanctions, though Russian copper reportedly faces growing competition from Indonesia.
Deripaska may be a bellwether for Russia’s openness to Chinese advanced energy tech like EVs, solar, and batteries. Russia has been conspicuously slow to adopt these technologies, partly because of its incumbent technologies. Russia’s hydrocarbon sectors—oil, gas, and coal—remain central, alongside a robust hydropower and nuclear sector. Given that Russia’s energy sector will compete with Chinese advanced energy technology imports, both abroad and in Russia’s own domestic market, the energy transition may become an increasingly contentious issue in China-Russia relations.
This is a period of history that the Chinese people, the Russian people and the people of the world will never forget.
这段历史,中国人民永远不会忘记,俄罗斯人民永远不会忘记,世界人民也永远不会忘记。
Comments: The emphasis on intergenerational friendship is another attempt to institutionalize the bilateral relationship.
In 2024, bilateral trade rose to 244.8 billion U.S. dollars, making China the largest trading partner of Russia for 15 consecutive years. In December 2024, the China-Russia east-route natural gas pipeline was fully completed. Cooperation in emerging sectors such as the digital economy, e-commerce, bio-medicine, scientific and technological innovation, as well as green energy [bolded by The Report] continues to expand.
The two countries' long-lasting friendship [bolded by The Report] has grown increasingly popular among the two peoples. The mutual visa exemption agreement for group tours has encouraged more robust two-way travel. Hundreds of cultural events have been held in succession with the framework of the China-Russia Year of Culture.
Comments: More emphasis on “long-lasting” friendship (I translate “传统” as “traditional” but the PD apparently does not). As a side bar, the PRC didn’t mention the Power of Siberia-2 natural gas pipeline. Advanced energy technologies – advanced batteries, heat pumps, building efficiency improvements, solar, etc – and the trend of rising temperatures are reducing north China’s natural gas demand, all things being equal, while LNG markets appear oversupplied for at least the rest of the decade, diminishing Beijing’s interest in Russian pipeline natural gas.
The economic relationship, including in autos, is becoming highly imbalanced. Beijing’s growing economic and financial influence in Russia could spark a backlash in the post-war period. The EU may have an opportunity to drive a wedge between Beijing and Moscow by imposing higher tariffs on Chinese-made ICE vehicles. This measure would mechanically redirect Chinese auto exports to the Russian market, further pressuring Russian automakers struggling to ramp up production. I’ll write more about this soon.
Xi’s signed article in Russian media; reflections on World War 2
Full text of Xi's signed article in Russian media – People’s Daily [English]
We must uphold a correct historical perspective on WWII. China and the Soviet Union were the principal theaters of that war in Asia and Europe respectively. The two countries served as the mainstay of resistance against Japanese militarism and German Nazism, making pivotal contribution to the victory of the World Anti-Fascist War. The Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression began the earliest and lasted the longest. United as one under the banner of the Chinese united front against Japanese aggression, which was advocated and established by the CPC, the Chinese people launched a relentless struggle against and defeated the brutal Japanese militarists. With immense sacrifice, they carved out an immortal epic of heroic resistance and ultimate victory against Japanese aggression. In the European theater, the Soviet Red Army advanced like an iron tide with unwavering fortitude and valor, crushed Nazi Germany's ambitions and liberated millions from its brutal occupation, writing an epic of victory in the Soviet Union's Great Patriotic War.
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This year also marks the 80th anniversary of the restoration of Taiwan. Taiwan's restoration to China is a victorious outcome of WWII and an integral part of the postwar international order. A series of instruments with legal effect under international law, including the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation, have all affirmed China's sovereignty over Taiwan. The historical and legal fact therein brooks no challenge. And the authority of UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 brooks no challenge. No matter how the situation on the Taiwan island evolves or what troubles external forces may make, the historical trend toward China's ultimate and inevitable reunification is unstoppable.
China and Russia have all along firmly supported each other on issues bearing on our respective core interests or major concerns. Russia has reiterated on many occasions that it strictly adheres to the one-China principle, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory, it opposes any form of "Taiwan independence," and it firmly supports all measures of the Chinese government and the Chinese people to achieve national reunification. China highly commends Russia's consistent position.
This year marks the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, the Soviet Union’s Great Patriotic War and the World Anti-Fascist War.
Comment: No specific mention of Western contributions, although the European and Pacific theaters are mentioned later.
… President Xi Jinping has repeatedly reiterated that China adheres to the path of peaceful development and will never seek hegemony, expansion, spheres of influence or pursue an arms race, no matter how developed it is.
Comment: This formulation “never seek hegemony, expansion, spheres of influence or pursue an arms race, no matter how developed it is” isn’t new – Xi raised it virtually at the Boao forum in 2021.
今年是中国人民抗日战争、苏联伟大卫国战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年。
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习近平主席多次重申,中国坚持走和平发展道路,无论发展到什么程度,永远不称霸、不扩张、不谋求势力范围,不搞军备竞赛。
Until next time,
Joe
Joe Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and editor of the China-Russia Report. This article represents his own personal opinion.
The China-Russia Report is an independent, nonpartisan newsletter covering political, economic, and security affairs within and between China and Russia. All articles, comments, op-eds, etc represent only the personal opinion of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the position(s) of The China-Russia Report.